In the light of recent events, have we changed where we think everyone will finish ?

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

1) Collingwood

2) Hawthorn

3) Geelong

4) Western Bulldogs

5) St Kilda

6) Melbourne

7) Fremantle

8) Adelaide

I am feeling surprisingly optimistic.

Edited February 21, 2011 by Clint Bizkit

[Deemort 28]

Reading your constant drivel could lead to depression.Not me pal. I'm just a happy REALIST!

We will finish at best, 10th.

This post has been edited by bobby mckenzie: Today, 06:32 PM

Realist? By that post I'd have to say more like a pessimist. Are you serious? 10 at best??

I'd be thinking somewhere between 10 and 6 is likely. 10th at best is a depressing prediction, glad I go into the season with a little more hope and faith that you. And I am a realist too.

Edited February 21, 2011 by Deemort

[Crompton's the man 659]

Having watched Melbourne for many years - over fifty - and seen some truly exciting times - it might seem trite to say - the best times are when we play the team game and we fire off each other.

This type of team vision is the antithesis of individualism and has a lot to do with collective success , perhaps more easily acieved after times in the dungeon , when few will be tempted to think they are grander than is real.

Our success against last year's premiers is a sign that we should be confident enough to give Dean Bailey the support he might need.

The Club arguably is developing an exciting style of play and lacks the emphasis of self-seeking egos that sound the death-knell of long-term progress.

We have much to look forward to - and our Koori players could easily be the superb complement to our well-laid recruiting foundation.

Patience.

[Mallee Bull 97]

Going on 2010 form, I've done a quick look at games we will likely win and likely lose (IMO). Obviously we'll win some games when we've been written off and lose one's that we shouldn't (West coast at the G, still don't know what happened that day). Those people thinking we'll push top 4 are expecting more than I think our side can yet deliver. Top 8 a solid chance.

Round 1. V Sydney = W (MCG)

2. V Hawthorn = L (MCG)

3. V Brisbane = W (MCG)

4. V Gold Coast = W (GABBA)

5. BYE

6. V West Coast = L (SUBI)

7. V Adelaide = W (MCG)

8. V North Melbourne = L (ETIHAD) (only because it's Etihad)

9. V StKilda = L (ETIHAD)

10. V Carlton = L (MCG)

11. V Essendon = W (MCG)

12. V Collingfilth = L (MCG) *hoping i'm wrong, have a Pineapple on that game already!!

13. V Fremantle = W (MCG)

14. V Richmond = W (MCG)

15. V Western Bulldogs = L (ETIHAD)

16. BYE

17. V Port Adelaide = W (TIO -Darwin)

18. V Hawthorn = L (MCG)

19. V Geelong = L (SKILLED)

20. V Carlton = L (MCG)

21. V West Coast = W (ETIHAD)

22. V Essendon = W (MCG)

23. V Gold Coast = W (MCG)

24. V Port Adelaide = L (AAMI)

Wins= 11 Losses= 11

Obviously we'll steal some and drop some, but I think that's a realistic score card based on last years form and likely improvement. Injuries will influence it a lot also, but if the boys get 10 wins this year they'll be doing OK.

The two Carlton games and the North game will be big ones IMO as they have both had the wood on us in recent years. Would like to see us atleast challenge Carlton and convincingly beat North.

Edited February 21, 2011 by Mallee Bull

[Crompton's the man 659]

Well done Mallee Bull

if your post is realistic - which it may well be - I'll up the ante and say that our team ethic will lead us to 12 wins

Bet you $5

[Bobby McKenzie 2,331]

We will finish at best, 10th.

This post has been edited by bobby mckenzie: Today, 06:32 PM

Realist? By that post I'd have to say more like a pessimist. Are you serious? 10 at best??

I'd be thinking somewhere between 10 and 6 is likely. 10th at best is a depressing prediction, glad I go into the season with a little more hope and faith that you. And I am a realist too.

Hope you are right and I am wrong, but I feel that we lack too much experience for this coming season. Note; FOR THIS SEASON ONLY, then in 2012 we will start moving upwards RAPIDLY! Roll on 2012. I guess we will see who was right come September. Injuries too will play their part and we don't have a great record in this area.

[brunoc 3]

Honestly with that ^^^^^ draw i'd be disappointed if we didn't make top 8. I think the youth excuse is wearing pretty thin - we've got enough quality in the 20-25 age bracket and these players should be ready to take their games to a new level. Collingwood had a relatively young list last year remember.

[Bobby McKenzie 2,331]

Going on 2010 form, I've done a quick look at games we will likely win and likely lose (IMO). Obviously we'll win some games when we've been written off and lose one's that we shouldn't (West coast at the G, still don't know what happened that day). Those people thinking we'll push top 4 are expecting more than I think our side can yet deliver. Top 8 a solid chance.

Round 1. V Sydney = W (MCG)

2. V Hawthorn = L (MCG)

3. V Brisbane = W (MCG)

4. V Gold Coast = W (GABBA)

5. BYE

6. V West Coast = L (SUBI)

7. V Adelaide = W (MCG)

8. V North Melbourne = L (ETIHAD) (only because it's Etihad)

9. V StKilda = L (ETIHAD)

10. V Carlton = L (MCG)

11. V Essendon = W (MCG)

12. V Collingfilth = L (MCG) *hoping i'm wrong, have a Pineapple on that game already!!

13. V Fremantle = W (MCG)

14. V Richmond = W (MCG)

15. V Western Bulldogs = L (ETIHAD)

16. BYE

17. V Port Adelaide = W (TIO -Darwin)

18. V Hawthorn = L (MCG)

19. V Geelong = L (SKILLED)

20. V Carlton = L (MCG)

21. V West Coast = W (ETIHAD)

22. V Essendon = W (MCG)

23. V Gold Coast = W (MCG)

24. V Port Adelaide = L (AAMI)

Wins= 11 Losses= 11

Obviously we'll steal some and drop some, but I think that's a realistic score card based on last years form and likely improvement. Injuries will influence it a lot also, but if the boys get 10 wins this year they'll be doing OK.

The two Carlton games and the North game will be big ones IMO as they have both had the wood on us in recent years. Would like to see us atleast challenge Carlton and convincingly beat North.

I disagree with you on these two possible 'wins'. Fremantle at the G and Port in Darwin. Agree with the losses giving us 9 wins and 13 losses= 10th or 11th. An improvement on last season. Sydney could be a danger game round 1 despite the thrashing we gave them last year. Memories of that game might stir them up a bit do you think? Still expect to win however, but not by 72 points.

[Mallee Bull 97]

I disagree with you on these two possible 'wins'. Fremantle at the G and Port in Darwin. Agree with the losses giving us 9 wins and 13 losses= 10th or 11th. An improvement on last season. Sydney could be a danger game round 1 despite the thrashing we gave them last year. Memories of that game might stir them up a bit do you think? Still expect to win however, but not by 72 points.

Yeah, fair enough Bobby Mac. Freo will be an interesting one. As I said, injuries will be huge and are impossible to predict. I still think that our best 22 V their best 22 *at the G* equals a win for us.

Just out of curiosity, why do you believe Port will beat us in Darwin?

First game of the year is always a danger game. Time will tell.

[Mallee Bull 97]

Well done Mallee Bull

if your post is realistic - which it may well be - I'll up the ante and say that our team ethic will lead us to 12 wins

Bet you $5

Pick which game will be the 12th win and I'll pay out double.

[Back Flanker 2]

Going on 2010 form, I've done a quick look at games we will likely win and likely lose (IMO). Obviously we'll win some games when we've been written off and lose one's that we shouldn't (West coast at the G, still don't know what happened that day). Those people thinking we'll push top 4 are expecting more than I think our side can yet deliver. Top 8 a solid chance.

Round 1. V Sydney = W (MCG)

2. V Hawthorn = L (MCG)

3. V Brisbane = W (MCG)

4. V Gold Coast = W (GABBA)

5. BYE

6. V West Coast = L (SUBI)

7. V Adelaide = W (MCG)

8. V North Melbourne = L (ETIHAD) (only because it's Etihad)

9. V StKilda = L (ETIHAD)

10. V Carlton = L (MCG)

11. V Essendon = W (MCG)

12. V Collingfilth = L (MCG) *hoping i'm wrong, have a Pineapple on that game already!!

13. V Fremantle = W (MCG)

14. V Richmond = W (MCG)

15. V Western Bulldogs = L (ETIHAD)

16. BYE

17. V Port Adelaide = W (TIO -Darwin)

18. V Hawthorn = L (MCG)

19. V Geelong = L (SKILLED)

20. V Carlton = L (MCG)

21. V West Coast = W (ETIHAD)

22. V Essendon = W (MCG)

23. V Gold Coast = W (MCG)

24. V Port Adelaide = L (AAMI)

Wins= 11 Losses= 11

Obviously we'll steal some and drop some, but I think that's a realistic score card based on last years form and likely improvement. Injuries will influence it a lot also, but if the boys get 10 wins this year they'll be doing OK.

The two Carlton games and the North game will be big ones IMO as they have both had the wood on us in recent years. Would like to see us atleast challenge Carlton and convincingly beat North.

Its good to maintain 'reality' when looking at the season at large, but why do you have us losing to Carlton twice at the MCG? Do you really think they are a better side than us? I see Carlton as being one dimensional, and on a massive slide this year. Backline is rubbish, forward line looks fragile, but a solid midfield (albeit an unhealthy reliance on Judd).

Eddie betts will kick his 30-40 goals, but if Jarrod Waite gets injured (again) they are looking at Henderson (recycled) to kicked majority of goals, and Walker (has been on trade table for two years) as back up.

I know I would be a nervous Carlton supporter. And for all the talk of Bailey needing a good year, Ratten is surely under the most pressure

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

Going on 2010 form, I've done a quick look at games we will likely win and likely lose (IMO). Obviously we'll win some games when we've been written off and lose one's that we shouldn't (West coast at the G, still don't know what happened that day). Those people thinking we'll push top 4 are expecting more than I think our side can yet deliver. Top 8 a solid chance.

Round 1. V Sydney = W (MCG)

2. V Hawthorn = L (MCG)

3. V Brisbane = W (MCG)

4. V Gold Coast = W (GABBA)

5. BYE

6. V West Coast = L (SUBI)

7. V Adelaide = W (MCG)

8. V North Melbourne = L (ETIHAD) (only because it's Etihad)

9. V StKilda = L (ETIHAD)

10. V Carlton = L (MCG)

11. V Essendon = W (MCG)

12. V Collingfilth = L (MCG) *hoping i'm wrong, have a Pineapple on that game already!!

13. V Fremantle = W (MCG)

14. V Richmond = W (MCG)

15. V Western Bulldogs = L (ETIHAD)

16. BYE

17. V Port Adelaide = W (TIO -Darwin)

18. V Hawthorn = L (MCG)

19. V Geelong = L (SKILLED)

20. V Carlton = L (MCG)

21. V West Coast = W (ETIHAD)

22. V Essendon = W (MCG)

23. V Gold Coast = W (MCG)

24. V Port Adelaide = L (AAMI)

Wins= 11 Losses= 11

Obviously we'll steal some and drop some, but I think that's a realistic score card based on last years form and likely improvement. Injuries will influence it a lot also, but if the boys get 10 wins this year they'll be doing OK.

The two Carlton games and the North game will be big ones IMO as they have both had the wood on us in recent years. Would like to see us atleast challenge Carlton and convincingly beat North.

Very well done I agree almost exactly, i'll just adjust with one extra win, a big upset over a gun side, hopefully Collingwood. That'll be 12 wins, finish 7th or 8th

[John Crow Batty 8,786]

At this stage I believe there are 18 games we can win given the right conditions on the day. I will concede to the Swans, Geelong, St Kilda and WB all away at this stage. If we win 12 of these 18 or 66% we will have reached par expectations for the season IMO.

Edited February 22, 2011 by america de cali

[rpfc 28,052]

At this stage I believe there are 18 games we can win given the right conditions on the day. I will concede to the Swans, Geelong, St Kilda and WB all away at this stage. If we win 12 of these 18 or 66% we will have reached par expectations for the season IMO.

How can anyone argue with that science?

[John Crow Batty 8,786]

How can anyone argue with that science?

Spit your dummy out and it might be easier.

Edited February 22, 2011 by america de cali

[Sir Why You Little 36,668]

At this stage I believe there are 18 games we can win given the right conditions on the day. I will concede to the Swans, Geelong, St Kilda and WB all away at this stage. If we win 12 of these 18 or 66% we will have reached par expectations for the season IMO.

So those 4 games you already concede, what do you suggest we do, just not turn up?

We may not win but i never concede before the season begins. Those 4 games you say we have no chance, we must start winning if this team is going to be taken seriously.

Beating the Aints and Westies at Etihad should not be beyond our reach this year.

[John Crow Batty 8,786]

So those 4 games you already concede, what do you suggest we do, just not turn up?

We may not win but i never concede before the season begins. Those 4 games you say we have no chance, we must start winning if this team is going to be taken seriously.

Beating the Aints and Westies at Etihad should not be beyond our reach this year.

Concede is perhaps a poor choice of word on my part. But these games I would put in the bonus win category if we can pull them off. And I agree we should approach all games with the same hardness and also that in particular the Aints and Westies are not beyond our reach. I hope we don't also see any of those "resting" tactics like we tried at Geelong.

[rpfc 28,052]

Spit your dummy out and it might be easier.

???

I'm a dummy spitter?

Really?

As with many of your posts lately - I find an issue with your logic.

Where does the 66% measure come from?

Where does the importance of that number originate?

Why are we so confident of beating the Premiers? Because we 'match up well?' We'll see...

And I have a high horse, not a dummy...

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

Why are we so confident of beating the Premiers? Because we 'match up well?' We'll see...

could have something to do with the fact we played them for four hours and finished a point down last year

and now we are clearly a better side

[nutbean 8,838]

I expect a top eight finish. If not then goodbye Bailey. But there is a chance to push further and make the top four. A early good run with injuries and stringing consecutive games will put us in position to have a crack at top 4. And one or two fancied sides delivering sub par expectations will help.

Gotta love such bold pronouncements !

I don't lower my expectations but you have to put things into prespective. First and foremost - the big disclaimer in my expectation is injuries.

Given a fair run with injuries I can see us pushing for the eight. Its all about keeping your best players on the paddock ( and the umpires not wearing the same coloured jumpers as us.) I will judge Bailey on the amount of games we produce form of the ilk of the Brisbane game last year and the two Collingwood games ( and that form brought us a win, a loss and a draw !)

[45HG 1,539]

Where's that image about not feeding the troll?

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

Gotta love such bold pronouncements !

I don't lower my expectations but you have to put things into prespective. First and foremost - the big disclaimer in my expectation is injuries.

Given a fair run with injuries I can see us pushing for the eight. Its all about keeping your best players on the paddock ( and the umpires not wearing the same coloured jumpers as us.) I will judge Bailey on the amount of games we produce form of the ilk of the Brisbane game last year and the two Collingwood games ( and that form brought us a win, a loss and a draw !)

I rewatched the Dogs game the other night, can't believe we lost that, we were fantastic. Our best four were Scully, Trengove, Grimes and McKenzie, Watts and Jurrah weren't even there neither were Petterd, Morton... clearly we have huge improvement to come from this group, we will be capable of beating anyone a shake even this year

[rpfc 28,052]

could have something to do with the fact we played them for four hours and finished a point down last year

and now we are clearly a better side

Ibso facto - Melbourne will win the flag...

I would say that Collingwood became "clearly a better side" from QB last year when they became the best side in the game and won the flag.

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

Ibso facto - Melbourne will win the flag...

that's not how it works is it

beating the premiers does not equal best team in the comp

[Bobby McKenzie 2,331]

Yeah, fair enough Bobby Mac. Freo will be an interesting one. As I said, injuries will be huge and are impossible to predict. I still think that our best 22 V their best 22 *at the G* equals a win for us.

Just out of curiosity, why do you believe Port will beat us in Darwin?

First game of the year is always a danger game. Time will tell.

Predicting a loss to Port adelaide stems from:

a) Just a gut feeling.

B) We lose our home game at the 'G' and travelling to Darwin instead does not inspire confidence. At the MCG I would have no hesitation in selecting the Dees. Darwin is more of a 'home' game to them. (Port Adelaide).

c) Port are a most unpredictable team and can beat anyone on their day.

Not brilliant reasons I admit and I will be very pleased to find I was wrong here.

Edited February 22, 2011 by bobby mckenzie