THE TOM SCULLY TO GWS THREAD

[Summer Blease 0]

"The Tom Scully to GWS Guide for Dummies" available for $9.99 at all good bookstores.

This is obviously a crucial topic for the Melbourne Football Club, and it's no surprise to me that this thread is as well worn as it currently is. A few points to clarify the situation from my vantage point (some of this is just packaging much of what's been said by others into burger format) and hopefully quell some of the desires for a group hara kiri session, and apologies for providing no new info;

1. There seems to be a feeling among some the general populace that Scully is gone because he hasn't re-signed yet or made a public statement, or that he has actally already signed with GWS. As earlier noted - the statement from his management WAS the public statement. Good sporting clubs don't do their contract negotiations through the media, and that was a fairly unique statement in light of the growing unrest amongst the Melbourne faithful. Secondly, there is no way known he would have already signed with GWS. Unless he physically combusts, his value is only going to increase as the season progresses. Signing with them this early is only in the best interest of GWS, and duds Scully. It is a simple matter of giving himself the best chance at a bigger contract by improving on-field performance over the course of his current contract. It is completely reasonable that Tom is allwed to do this. I think all along it would have been his intention to conduct his contract negotiations in the second half of 2011, and that the current media hysteria would be somewhere between irritating and quite disconcerting for him. I'm not hanging out for him to make an announcement on a live news cross, but then again I don't think he'll leave.

2. That Scully will go because the money will be too much to refuse. I'm trying to recall good players who have left clubs in the last few years and their (supposed) motivations for doing so. Judd left WC because of 'player culture' and chose his club based on money. Ablett certainly had financial reasons to leave but was increasingly unhappy at Geelong and could play with his brother at GC. Bruce - not offered more than 1 year at Melbourne. Scott Thompson - went home for family reasons. Fev - nutcase. Burgoyne - Choco and Port growing on the nose. I'm sure there are many more examples, but you get the point. The reality is, that for a player to want to move, there is almost always an unhappiness with their current club. I don't know Tom personally, but that doesn't seem to be the case here. Let's say he is offered $800k by GWS and $500k by Melbourne. That's a lot different than the difference between $100k and $400k. I can't see a professional footballer purely leaving for a bigger contract when all the other intangibles are in favour of staying with the current club. If Scully is happy at Melbourne, and we're not disgracefully miserly in contract negotiations, I think he'll stay.

3. Ultimately, we like to be in control of things, and it's frustrating that it's out of our hands. Short of hitting Andrew Demetriou in the face with a frozen mutton chop in the local supermarket, we're not really going to be able to have a positive impact on the situation. Hopefully the club continues to remain as attractive a playing destination for him as possible, and avoids unthinkably soiling itself with measures like playing him at Casey or giving him ultimatums. Happy Scully = Demon Scully. Just remember the positives. All GWS have to offer is extra money. We're not offering to pay him in magic beans. At Melbourne, he's got friends, family, the chance to play at the G more than 50% of the season, greater endorsement opportunities, and the opportunity to win flags in the near future, all while earning a very healthy wage.

Nice post and I agree. Point 3 sums it up nicely for me, at the end of the day it is the positives that will keep him at Melbourne and the extra money on offer from GWS (whatever it indeed is) wouldn't be enough to pluck him out of his current environment.

Logic 101..

[rpfc 28,769]

All I can suggest is read his manager's statement carefully. Disect it word for word. Then you may get some FI

And you are going off of a over-analysed (and some would say poorly analysed) statement from his reps.

It's your FI, not anyone elses.

We all have our own FI and you think those that have confidence in him staying have NFI just the same way that I think that people overtly and unnecessarily pessimistic (and think it's already over) have NFI.

Get the idea?

[rpfc 28,769]

How's the fly's taste today E? Mate your quicker to snap than a venus trap!

Sorry for ignoring the logic, I wasn't aware that there was a hint of logic in any of this and thus don't concern myself with it.

He is gone.

Your opinion/guess/pessimism is noted.

Oh, and by the way, this view now disqualifies you from becoming No.1 ticket holder at the club. Sorry.

[Summer Blease 0]

How's the fly's taste today E? Mate your quicker to snap than a venus trap!

Sorry for ignoring the logic, I wasn't aware that there was a hint of logic in any of this and thus don't concern myself with it.

He is gone.

This whole saga was born from a rumour, many people are jumping at shadows and forming their own conclusions from assumptions that have been tailor made to suite their own fears.

I strongly believe at the end of the year when the kid re-signs there will be a lot of embarrassed posters. Chill out a little buddy, it's not always doom and gloom at the MFC..

[e25 5]

How's the fly's taste today E? Mate your quicker to snap than a venus trap!

Sorry for ignoring the logic, I wasn't aware that there was a hint of logic in any of this and thus don't concern myself with it.

He is gone.

Snap?

Just the way any intelligent person would see it.

I'm amazed you're so sure without a shred of evidence.

I have the evidence of people's actions from which I can deduce logical conclusions.

The most likely and obvious answer is that Scully has not yet signed with anyone, and will likely re-sign with MFC.

To conclude anything else is to be blinded by either irrational fear, or your own greed which you wish to apply to Scully's situation.

[Demonator 93]

"The Tom Scully to GWS Guide for Dummies" available for $9.99 at all good bookstores.

This is obviously a crucial topic for the Melbourne Football Club, and it's no surprise to me that this thread is as well worn as it currently is. A few points to clarify the situation from my vantage point (some of this is just packaging much of what's been said by others into burger format) and hopefully quell some of the desires for a group hara kiri session, and apologies for providing no new info;

1. There seems to be a feeling among some the general populace that Scully is gone because he hasn't re-signed yet or made a public statement, or that he has actally already signed with GWS. As earlier noted - the statement from his management WAS the public statement. Good sporting clubs don't do their contract negotiations through the media, and that was a fairly unique statement in light of the growing unrest amongst the Melbourne faithful. Secondly, there is no way known he would have already signed with GWS. Unless he physically combusts, his value is only going to increase as the season progresses. Signing with them this early is only in the best interest of GWS, and duds Scully. It is a simple matter of giving himself the best chance at a bigger contract by improving on-field performance over the course of his current contract. It is completely reasonable that Tom is allwed to do this. I think all along it would have been his intention to conduct his contract negotiations in the second half of 2011, and that the current media hysteria would be somewhere between irritating and quite disconcerting for him. I'm not hanging out for him to make an announcement on a live news cross, but then again I don't think he'll leave.

2. That Scully will go because the money will be too much to refuse. I'm trying to recall good players who have left clubs in the last few years and their (supposed) motivations for doing so. Judd left WC because of 'player culture' and chose his club based on money. Ablett certainly had financial reasons to leave but was increasingly unhappy at Geelong and could play with his brother at GC. Bruce - not offered more than 1 year at Melbourne. Scott Thompson - went home for family reasons. Fev - nutcase. Burgoyne - Choco and Port growing on the nose. I'm sure there are many more examples, but you get the point. The reality is, that for a player to want to move, there is almost always an unhappiness with their current club. I don't know Tom personally, but that doesn't seem to be the case here. Let's say he is offered $800k by GWS and $500k by Melbourne. That's a lot different than the difference between $100k and $400k. I can't see a professional footballer purely leaving for a bigger contract when all the other intangibles are in favour of staying with the current club. If Scully is happy at Melbourne, and we're not disgracefully miserly in contract negotiations, I think he'll stay.

3. Ultimately, we like to be in control of things, and it's frustrating that it's out of our hands. Short of hitting Andrew Demetriou in the face with a frozen mutton chop in the local supermarket, we're not really going to be able to have a positive impact on the situation. Hopefully the club continues to remain as attractive a playing destination for him as possible, and avoids unthinkably soiling itself with measures like playing him at Casey or giving him ultimatums. Happy Scully = Demon Scully. Just remember the positives. All GWS have to offer is extra money. We're not offering to pay him in magic beans. At Melbourne, he's got friends, family, the chance to play at the G more than 50% of the season, greater endorsement opportunities, and the opportunity to win flags in the near future, all while earning a very healthy wage.

I've posted a few times on this topic agreeing with certain things, but this is the best written and most logical one yet. Great read and all makes sense.

[nutbean 8,838]

I agree with all that, but there is so much more to it too.

I put 119 words into your mouth - I didnt want to over-reach

[Red Sox 2]

Snap?

Just the way any intelligent person would see it.

I'm amazed you're so sure without a shred of evidence.

I have the evidence of people's actions from which I can deduce logical conclusions.

The most likely and obvious answer is that Scully has not yet signed with anyone, and will likely re-sign with MFC.

To conclude anything else is to be blinded by either irrational fear, or your own greed which you wish to apply to Scully's situation.

Does it have to have such a negative connotation as 'irrational fear'? I believe supporters passions for their club sometimes gives them little choice but to be irrational, it should be an almost uncontrollable emotion at times.

So much is invested by all of us, why apologise for that?

Basically it is nothing more than a gut feel E, for me anyway and one that I feel is right. I like a punt so gut feel can be a good and bad thing.

Where the club is headed right now I just cannot fathom any reason why he needs to hold out. His management could be just as negligent now in having him (potentially) sign for 5 years with GWS when there is free agency on the horizon also.

GWS is not the only meal ticket left when it comes to cash cows.

[nutbean 8,838]

The most likely and obvious answer is that Scully has not yet signed with anyone, and will likely re-sign with MFC.

To conclude anything else is to be blinded by either irrational fear, or your own greed which you wish to apply to Scully's situation.

I agree with your logic that he hasnt signed. And I am blinded by greed enough to say I have no idea of which way he will go - huuuugggeeee dollars vs stay at home, play on the G and the Dee's are on the move as opposed to the wasteland that is GWS and a team that will be years behind us in development and success.

[e25 5]

I think it's fair to say you have no idea which way he will go, but at the same time, the most likely result is that Scully will be at MFC in 2012.

[Red Sox 2]

I think it's fair to say you have no idea which way he will go, but at the same time, the most likely result is that Scully will be at MFC in 2012.

I hope your right.

Time for some footy!

[drdrake 3,187]

He will sign any day now, once this post exceeds the Jack Watts post from last year Scully will sign. I can't be bothered finding the post but I think it was around 1100 posts.

[nutbean 8,838]

Where the club is headed right now I just cannot fathom any reason why he needs to hold out.

I can fathom the biggest reason for him to hold off - bargaining position. Whilst I hate the idea of being held to ransom - do you think his value has gone down from a month ago ? The longer this goes on the more dollars will be on the table.

The problem is the spotlight is shining square on him and I would hate to be under that sort of pressure.

I suggested 10 pages ago that Colin Sylvia is unsigned as well - again as his manager and for his benefit ( not the club or the supporters) could you honestly say it would be better for him to sign now - or let the season unfold show good form and have GWS and others sniffing around uncontracted players ? There is only one answer. Simple logic dictates that footballers whose star is on the rise are better to leave the contract negotiation to the last minute to extract the best deal for themselves.

You really can't fathom why he wouldn't sign now ?

[jabberwocky 2,301]

So far we have realists, the pragmatic, the paranoid, the pesimistic, the deluded etc, but the biggest demographic on this thread are the Ostriches. They never see or hear anything coming because they got their heads buried in the sand.

How about the ones who create self serving, simplistic, stereotypes?

I think it is time you got a grip of reality. The reality is you don't know the answers, and you have no control over the outcome.

[Guest Thomo]

I can fathom the biggest reason for him to hold off - bargaining position. Whilst I hate the idea of being held to ransom - do you think his value has gone down from a month ago ? The longer this goes on the more dollars will be on the table.

The problem is the spotlight is shining square on him and I would hate to be under that sort of pressure.

I suggested 10 pages ago that Colin Sylvia is unsigned as well - again as his manager and for his benefit ( not the club or the supporters) could you honestly say it would be better for him to sign now - or let the season unfold show good form and have GWS and others sniffing around uncontracted players ? There is only one answer. Simple logic dictates that footballers whose star is on the rise are better to leave the contract negotiation to the last minute to extract the best deal for themselves.

You really can't fathom why he wouldn't sign now ?

Could be another thread, but thought I would highjack this rather than starting a new one.

If both Scully and Sylvia are out of contract - who gets the better deal? I think it is a tough one. Sylvia is clearly the better player right now, but has been injury prone and is half way though his career. Scully looks like he could be great 10 year player, but it is early days and if his disposal does not improve he will not reach the level that Sylvia is.

I don’t' know much about list management and what players are paid, but three year contracts seem to be what Melbourne looks at for its top players (some players push and receive longer). If it is a three year contract and Sylvia is offered $500k for example, I would have Scully on $300k. The next contract would probably be the reverse, with Scully signing into his prime and Sylvia signing potentially his last.

Thoughts?

[nutbean 8,838]

Thoughts?

I think my brain hurts

[rpfc 28,769]

Could be another thread, but thought I would highjack this rather than starting a new one.

If both Scully and Sylvia are out of contract - who gets the better deal? I think it is a tough one. Sylvia is clearly the better player right now, but has been injury prone and is half way though his career. Scully looks like he could be great 10 year player, but it is early days and if his disposal does not improve he will not reach the level that Sylvia is.

I don’t' know much about list management and what players are paid, but three year contracts seem to be what Melbourne looks at for its top players (some players push and receive longer). If it is a three year contract and Sylvia is offered $500k for example, I would have Scully on $300k. The next contract would probably be the reverse, with Scully signing into his prime and Sylvia signing potentially his last.

Thoughts?

It's a different thread.

And $300k might have done it a month ago but now I think we will be overpaying Tom by quite a bit in his next contract.

I guess the work done by Kleiman is quite fathomable to me too...

[Red Sox 2]

I can fathom the biggest reason for him to hold off - bargaining position. Whilst I hate the idea of being held to ransom - do you think his value has gone down from a month ago ? The longer this goes on the more dollars will be on the table.

The problem is the spotlight is shining square on him and I would hate to be under that sort of pressure.

I suggested 10 pages ago that Colin Sylvia is unsigned as well - again as his manager and for his benefit ( not the club or the supporters) could you honestly say it would be better for him to sign now - or let the season unfold show good form and have GWS and others sniffing around uncontracted players ? There is only one answer. Simple logic dictates that footballers whose star is on the rise are better to leave the contract negotiation to the last minute to extract the best deal for themselves.

You really can't fathom why he wouldn't sign now ?

I hear you and respect that as far as signing is concerned but does this require him to put off all talks to the end of the year?

Where does that leave MFC in respect to being engaged by Tom or his management?

I just don't like that leaving it all until the end of the year stuff. I am sure I don't need to engage in the differences between Sylvia and Scully though. Different argument all together.

[titan_uranus 25,043]

2. That Scully will go because the money will be too much to refuse. I'm trying to recall good players who have left clubs in the last few years and their (supposed) motivations for doing so. Judd left WC because of 'player culture' and chose his club based on money. Ablett certainly had financial reasons to leave but was increasingly unhappy at Geelong and could play with his brother at GC. Bruce - not offered more than 1 year at Melbourne. Scott Thompson - went home for family reasons. Fev - nutcase. Burgoyne - Choco and Port growing on the nose. I'm sure there are many more examples, but you get the point. The reality is, that for a player to want to move, there is almost always an unhappiness with their current club. I don't know Tom personally, but that doesn't seem to be the case here. Let's say he is offered $800k by GWS and $500k by Melbourne. That's a lot different than the difference between $100k and $400k. I can't see a professional footballer purely leaving for a bigger contract when all the other intangibles are in favour of staying with the current club. If Scully is happy at Melbourne, and we're not disgracefully miserly in contract negotiations, I think he'll stay.

I made this point a while back. Too many are using it as a negative.

But if you weigh up the benefits of GWS vs MFC, it's clear that GWS only has one card to play: money. In every other aspect, we've got the covered, and that makes this situation distinct from Ablett, Judd and Burgoyne, who had all won premierships and various other accolades after spending 5+ years with their original clubs. There were more advantages for a new home for them, none of which apply to Scully.

This is the reason which gives me the most hope. Money is obviously a factor, but to me, there's so much more on offer here at Melbourne that the smaller paypacket won't be a problem.

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

I think it's fair to say you have no idea which way he will go, but at the same time, the most likely result is that Scully will be at MFC in 2012.

I think it's fair to say that GWS will definitely be interested, and will definitely be able to put a better deal on the table, which for 99% of people would be done deal

Please do not dispute those 3 points, you can't

[nutbean 8,838]

I just don't like that leaving it all until the end of the year stuff.

Bingo ! There's the answer I was looking for - you don't like the end of year stuff and either do 99% of this board. Completely understandable from a club and supporter aspect. But we arent the ones negotiating our livelyhoods - it is not uncommon to leave these discussions to the back end of the season - Watts and Jones did it last year. We hate it but if we can be dispassionate enough to look from the outside - it is 100% logical, understandable and fathomable why a footballer whose star is on the rise and with a new team out throwing bucks around would delay these negotiations.

The issue here is we are passionate which clouds the logic.

[nutbean 8,838]

I think it's fair to say that GWS will definitely be interested, and will definitely be able to put a better deal on the table, which for 99% of people would be done deal

Please do not dispute those 3 points, you can't

I think you are right on points one and two. However

Sorry - you can absolutely dispute point 3 - football is littered with examples of players staying at clubs for less money than is on offer elsewhere - Green and Davey are two examples that we BELIEVE were offered bigger money by other clubs. Travis Cloke is a STATED example - at end of last year he said the extra money on offer from Essendon wasnt enough to sway him to move. I'm sure the board will come up with many more examples.

Edited February 15, 2011 by nutbean

[jabberwocky 2,301]

I think you are right on points one and two. However

Sorry - you can absolutely dispute point 3 - football is littered with examples of players staying at clubs for less money than is on offer elsewhere - Green and Davey are two examples that we BELIEVE were offered bigger money by other clubs. Travis Cloke is a STATED example - at end of last year he said the extra money on offer from Essendon wasnt enough to sway him to move. I'm sure the board will come up with many more examples.

It has been said that players that 25% is an indication of the overs that needs to be paid to pry a player from a club.

[jnrmac 20,185]

"The Tom Scully to GWS Guide for Dummies" available for $9.99 at all good bookstores.

I don't know Tom personally, but that doesn't seem to be the case here. Let's say he is offered $800k by GWS and $500k by Melbourne. That's a lot different than the difference between $100k and $400k. I can't see a professional footballer purely leaving for a bigger contract when all the other intangibles are in favour of staying with the current club. If Scully is happy at Melbourne, and we're not disgracefully miserly in contract negotiations, I think he'll stay.

Liked your post but the difference between $100k and $400k and the diff between $500k and $800k is mathematically speaking zero.

[jnrmac 20,185]

It has been canvassed that Sheedy could be behind this but has anyone considered that Scully's management put the rumour out to get Tom's value up??

Nothing is what it seems when it comes to player managers and footy contracts. Believe nothing til it's inked and announced. The rest is PURE speculation and you'll do your head in if you worry about it.