Future Forward Line Structure

[Jaded No More 68,903]

I agree with Doggo, for too top heavy and unless any of Miller, Martin or Bate improve drastically then they'll just be depth players in the future. This will also be compounded if we get Butcher at the end of the year

Also, why would you want your (potentially) two best forwards in terms of goal kicking ability pushing up to the wing away from the goals?

Because it makes us versatile and unpredictable.

Same reason why Franklin, Brown, Pavlich etc... will often play further up the ground.

My forward structure was based 2-3 years down the track, not 6.

If you are looking at the forward structure for 2015, then of course Miller won't be there (or Green) , and in all likelihood neither will Bate.

But it is impossible to predict something that is so far down the track, especially if you're going to base it on players that haven't even been drafted.

Using what we have at our disposal, and taking into account the level of development we can expect in 2-3 years, I think my forwardline is reasonable both in terms of personnel and position.

There is nothing to say that a tall forwardline is bad, it only becomes bad if your forwards are immobile and one-dimensional, which Miller and Bate are, but Jurrah, Watts and Martin aren't.

Ideally I would actually play Miller closer to goal, push Jurrah to a half forward flank and actually play Green in Bate's role (I am not a Bate fan and don't think he has a long-term future). But I know it won't happen, so I went with probability rather than chance.

[rpfc 28,384]

I believe that some of you need to look at a nuanced view of particular players in regard to our flag tilt.

Miller and Bate are NOT good enough to play CHF in a flag.

That is a true statement, but they are certainly good enough to play roles in our forward line as we chase that flag.

Each player has his weaknesses and positives:

Miller - He isn't a footballer, but is a leader of men, and his work ethic is second to none (don't patronise the term, some show it more than others). And he is good enough to play at AFL level. If Watts learns from Miller to develop his body and give as much a Miller does off the ball he will become the kind of player what we all hope for.

Bate - He is a tweener. Neither a KPP or a wingman (due to his glacial pace), but he is a footy player in the way he thinks and moves. He his a fantastic lead up player, but requires very good delivery to kick his three or four goals a game.

Newton - He is a taller Robbo without the determination. He is slowly turning that around with a solid month of footy (tackling and chasing) but his body is what worries me. He is not cut at all, Bate is bigger than Newton in the arms and spent his first few years in the midfield. I cannot see him usurping others mentioned to be apart of our forward line in a few years time.

Jurrah - He is a promising prospect and chasing and tackling looks second nature to him. I hope he embraces the summer gym work and if he does, he will give himself a chance of being an importnat part of our forward line.

Robertson - This will be his ultimate, or penultimate, year at the MFC. He won't be around for a flag.

Watts - He is in the same boat as Jurrah with regard to summer gym work. I really hope he looks to Miller and develops the same desire to get the most out of his body and himself.

[deanox 9,912]

Bate - He is a tweener. Neither a KPP or a wingman (due to his glacial pace), but he is a footy player in the way he thinks and moves. He his a fantastic lead up player, but requires very good delivery to kick his three or four goals a game.

good analysis, except i think you're wrong about bates pace. i think he has the speed, just cannot turn fast enough. if he is facing the way he wants to run he does quite well, but if he has to turn and chase he is left for dead. he did it well a couple of weeks ago when he bodied a player under the ball then took off. he wasn't caught, and it wasn't a big hulking KPP who was chasing him either.

[Jarka 767]

Because it makes us versatile and unpredictable.

Same reason why Franklin, Brown, Pavlich etc... will often play further up the ground.

These are not good comparisons, sure Franklin and Jon Brown at times go further up the ground, however they also have Roughead and Bradshaw respectively who are more than capable up kicking big bags in their own right. We currently have no one near the ability of those two guys. Riewoldt is in the same boat, but once again the Saints have Kosi as well.

Pavlich is forced to play up the ground because Freo have been absolutely shiite and it's more of a move made out of desperation rather than anything else.

[Jaded No More 68,903]

These are not good comparisons, sure Franklin and Jon Brown at times go further up the ground, however they also have Roughead and Bradshaw respectively who are more than capable up kicking big bags in their own right. We currently have no one near the ability of those two guys. Riewoldt is in the same boat, but once again the Saints have Kosi as well.

And if both Watts and Jurrah come on the way we expect, you would always leave one deep in attack if you choose to push the other further up field.

Often Franklin might play up the ground if Roughead is having a really good patch, and Hawthorn might choose to clear the forwardline and make him the sole focus. They can only do that because Franklin is capable of pushing up, making them a hell of a lot more versatile and one of, if not the best forward line due in the competition. Same goes for Riewoldt/Kosi and Brown/Bradshaw (Bradshaw often plays down back, like last night, and we can have that flexibility with Martin too).

The point is, that while I've loaded the forwardline with talls, they are flexible enough to give us enough options both in the air and at ground level.

In fact, that forwardline is pretty similar to the Hawthorn structure.

Roughead as a stay at home big forward (Martin- obviously not anywhere in the same league... yet ), Buddy as a roaming CHF (Watts), Williams who can play small or tall (Jurrah) and Moss (Aussie). Now they have Rioli as well except he pushes up into the midfield, and is not so much a stay at home crumber (far too good to waste in that position), which is something we can get from Sylvia/Maric on a rotational basis and obviously Davey as well.

I included both Bate and Miller, because in 2-3 years time Watts and Jurrah won't be good enough to command the forwardline on their own, and will need the bulk and strength of the other two. But longer down the track we will most likely replace one or both with smaller forward flankers who might rotate between HFF and midfield amongst themselves (so Sylvia plays a quarter in the middle, then a quarter up forward, then Maric does the same, then Davey, and perhaps even Aussie if he develops his fitness).

Bailey has spoken a lot about getting versatility out of our players, particularly out of our KPP, so it wouldn't surprise me if when Garland returns, we see him thrown up forward as well, possibly switching with Martin every once in a while.

If there is something I don't want to do again, is become a one-dimensional, predictable side, like we often were under Daniher. We would be dominating for 10 weeks, and other teams would figure us out and shut down our game plan. And we, having little scope to move our players around, got beaten in consecutive weeks.

The other alternative which I left out all together, is one where Morton (with an added 30kgs) takes the CHF position, with Watts at FF (again having added a lot of bulk), and Jurrah as a third tall. We've got options, we just need to use them wisely and be patient, because all of our potential KP forwards at the moment are way undersized (strength wise).

[Adam The God 30,220]

Wing

Give him a run on the wing for a few quaters and let him use his pace.

Yeah, the only thing I'd question about Bate playing on a wing is he doesn't have great awareness and it's something you need if you're going to play up the ground, particularly in the middle, when you've got the smaller, quicker players chasing you down and putting pressure on. He's a nice, penetrating, long kick, so he could be a very damaging playing between the wing and half forward.

[Adam The God 30,220]

I see Bate as the lead-up flanker, playing the role Miller plays now, Jurrah playing the role Robbo played a bit earlier in his career, as a slightly undersized tall, who starts deep and can take a pack mark, yet has the mobility to find the ball on wing/flank, Butcher/Miller the traditional deep FF, Watts the mobile, pack-marking CHF ala Riewoldt, and Maric, Wona, Jetta, as well as Green and Sylvia, as ground level players.

Spot on, Doggo. This is exactly how I see our forwardline operating.

[Adam The God 30,220]

i cant see why miller cant ply his lead and mark trade out of the square, but im not sure how he will go in the one out situation.

He did it effectively yesterday, but he was probably just pushed out a little too far from goal (40 metres:P). He still needs to improve his kicking, which I don't see happening, considering he's had plenty of time to develop that part of his game and to be honest has faulted. The thing about the Casey performance was that the kicking to him made it impossible for defenders to spoil him. The kicking was great. When we improve as a side and our skill level rises, perhaps Miller could play from the square as he did yesterday?

[rpfc 28,384]

good analysis, except i think you're wrong about bates pace. i think he has the speed, just cannot turn fast enough. if he is facing the way he wants to run he does quite well, but if he has to turn and chase he is left for dead. he did it well a couple of weeks ago when he bodied a player under the ball then took off. he wasn't caught, and it wasn't a big hulking KPP who was chasing him either.

You're right. He has good pace in a straight line, which is why he is good on a lead.

But his lateral movement is limited and that is why he cannot play on a wing, or at least should not, before Morton, Davey, et al.

Persist with HFF - even FF - while we are developing but forget about him being a midfielder.

[Al`s DEMONS 0]

rather than just writing players off, i was hoping this thread would evolve into a discussion of "can miller, watts and jurrah play in the same forward line or are they all to mobile?" or "Do we ultimately want 2-3 tall forwards, and "does one of them have to be a "3rd tall" ie more mobile player than genuine tall?".

two key talls then an athletic mid, Jurrah is probably classed as a tall but is very athletic.

[Al`s DEMONS 0]

Miller is a special case through, the question will always be 'Can we afford a key forward like him who doesn't kick goals'?

if we get butcher miller goes on the trade table, we carry no one come next year

[dee-luded 2,959]

if we get butcher miller goes on the trade table, we carry no one come next year

draftees - best - *Scully

----------- *Power forward - Butcher/Carlisle/Pitt? > (mobile & versatile)

----------- *tall forward - Strong key forward come Ruckman - watch chris wylie..

----------- *another mobile marking key forward.

--------------------------------------------

* -rookie- Young ruck

[rpfc 28,384]

if we get butcher miller goes on the trade table, we carry no one come next year

We are last.

No-one is being carried, there are no lifters - we have won one game. And if there are lifters, you can count them on one hand. It would be one hell of a clean-out to get rid of those 'who are being carried.'

I want Miller to show Watts how to be a professional footy player.

I also believe Miller can be a good HFF in a good team, which is what we all hope we may become soon.

[dee-luded 2,959]

We are last.

No-one is being carried, there are no lifters - we have won one game. And if there are lifters, you can count them on one hand. It would be one hell of a clean-out to get rid of those 'who are being carried.'

I want Miller to show Watts how to be a professional footy player.

I also believe Miller can be a good HFF in a good team, which is what we all hope we may become soon.

Yep, Watts & Butcher/????? would no doubt spend at least some of their season next year playing @ Casey Scorps.

To think otherwise would be fancifull.

[deanox 9,912]

He did it effectively yesterday, but he was probably just pushed out a little too far from goal (40 metres:P). He still needs to improve his kicking, which I don't see happening, considering he's had plenty of time to develop that part of his game and to be honest has faulted. The thing about the Casey performance was that the kicking to him made it impossible for defenders to spoil him. The kicking was great. When we improve as a side and our skill level rises, perhaps Miller could play from the square as he did yesterday?

last year a couple of times, he marked around 45, wheeled around onto his right, and banged goals from 55. it really took me by surprise, it was very un miller, but it just looked so natural.

i don't think he'll ever be a great set shot at goal when kicking from a distance, but i'd love to see him back himself more often, especially if he wants to wheel out ala franklin (but the other direction) to get more distance.

i am not sure if the difference is the different kicking technique, or the fact that by taking the shot straight away he didnt have time to think about the shot.

is it technique or is it in his head? history tells us it probably doesn't matter now that he is 25 (26 next month thanks phil cleary), but he seems to have so much confidence in his lead and mark up, but lacks the confidence in his disposal and hesitates with decision making.