manny100

Bet Goody will be up all night watching re runs of Pickett and Jackson highlights!!

Risky picking a ruckman!!! You have to be kidding!!!!! Short memories here!! Ahhhh, Wattsy over Nic Nat, another stuff up. By the way Callum Twomey said on SEN that Jackson is way ahead of Grundy at the same age and is hugely talented. Taylor says he could be anything.

Yes and that is exactly what I said. The mistaken belief is that if rucks and small forwards dud out with high picks then that 'roll' will either continue or reverse (vice versa). The point here is that it has the same effect as the gamblers fallacy simply because people believe it will happen regardless of randomness. Its the state of mind trends induce. Its happened so many times before its bound to happen again or vice versa. Of course it will be considered because human nature picks up trends. But in reality the trend or run of heads or tail is irrelevant because its the player research that matters when matching pick and player.

Suggestions in the press that we should not pick up Jackson or Pickett at 3 and 10 because rucks and small forwards get picked up later than those picks is the 'Gamblers fallacy' at work. Ie, 4 spins show 4 consecutive reds. You base your call on the next spin on those past spins ie you think red is on a big run and will continue or its time that black turned up. The reality is that every spin is completely independent of past spins. Each draft pick is independent from other picks, each player is different and each assessment by recruiters will be different. So Taylors call will be based on player assessment alone with a tiny pinch of needs maybe thrown in especially at 10. Whether rucks or small forwards at high picks have dudded in the past will not be a consideration. An example is Grundy slipping. High end talent but clubs were scared/worried about wasting a high pick on a ruck in case it turned up a dud. Whereas each player should be assessed independently. Luckily our recruiting staff are well aware of this. They were keen on Oliver when he was not talked about as an early pick. If Taylor and recruiting staff after expert deliberation consider those 2 players are the best available at those picks then so be it. Pickett has loads of speed, goal sense, reads the fall of the ball well around goals and has great forward defensive pressure. He is likely eventually to play as a mid or be a mid option. He can worry opposition in the air as well. The big thing Pickett has got going for him is that he has those close to goal skills that no one at the club has. We get the ball inside 50 and it comes straight back. Players like Pickett have the ability to intercept those ground balls inside 50 and create headaches for the opposition. Jackson can play forward as well as ruck and maybe high half forward. He may even be able to pinch hit later as a mid. As a ruck he may be almost an extra mid. He offers some insurance against ruck/forward injuries that may occur. Best of all he has bucket loads of talent. I am not qualified to make a call but if Taylor calls their names at 3 and 10 I will understand the reasons behind it. They have done all the groundwork.

Taylor has big wraps for Jackson. Mids are getting taller with The Bont at 192cm, Cripps at 195cm. Taylor says Jackson has played mid. Wonder whether they are thinking he could be a power inside mid or at least a massive body with talent you can throw into the inside mix as well as forward or ruck. Not saying he will be anywhere near as good as Cripps or Bont but he certainly is loaded with talent. May well be why GWS are rock solid in their belief we will not bid for Green and why there is no way we will split pick 3.

HUN article quoting Martins manager stating that there are many ways to structure a contract to scare off rivals. By rivals he means Ds and GC. The article then talks of first season at $800k plus that the Ds would not match given he would request a trade after the first season. The article actually says 'would request a trade after the first season. You cannot get much more blatant draft tampering than those sorts of plans. I would say the Ds would be seeking clarification from the AFL. The AFL would need to step in to stop this. If not this could happen on a regular basis. It will scare clubs into accepting low ball offers for out of contract players or risk losing them for nothing in the PSD via dodgy structured contracts and the threat of walking out after one season if drafted by the non preferred club. If the AFL allows a dodgy contract to stand then I doubt we will draft him.

At 3 and 8 best available is the way to go. We kicked in far to many points to take a risk picking position rather than best at our pick.

Agree, pick him and hope he turns up in better shape than May - no sure thing though. Worst case we trade him later for an ND pick. Once he meets the players and staff he will settle in well - no doubt. With luck he will prove to be a great get. I see it as some compensation for dropping from pick 2 to 3 in the ND. The HUN reported GC were offered a low ball future second and third round pick in next years highly compromised draft. Hardly a worthy offer for a player allegedly offered $600k+ pa. If he nominates for the PSD we will know what he wants - if its made public.

What exactly was the very good deal offered by Carlton?

Carlton shafted Jack Martin. They obviously went into discussions thinking that they would get him for spare change. GC were obviously burnt by Freo on the Weller trade and were not going to let it happen again - to that extent anyway. Desperate clubs often pay overs. Carlton obviously did not want him badly enough. Jack and his manager would be privately fuming - no doubt - he was shafted. If he nominates preseason say $700k first year $250k second year its obvious draft tampering and the AFL will not allow it. If the Ds pass the AFL will likely investigate and fine us or worse for incompetence. The only true test of his worth is the National Draft. Freo, Swans, Crows or North may well be interested with a pick in the 20s. Its wait and see for us. Its suck it and see for the Blues.

It will come down to whether we have the salary CAP. We had room for Elliott. If we take him its good by to JKH and Stretch. Looks like he may heavily forward load his requirements. Pick wise its some compensation for being downgraded to pick 3 by the AFL granting GC a priority. If we take him in the PSD we can always trade him for a pick later. If he is in the draft he goes where he is picked. The Ds will be very quiet about it all. Can you imagine how dumb we would look if we overlook him and he becomes a star at the blues. We would be the laughing stock. If we pick him and he is just a player we just say it was worth the risk.

Once Martin nominates no club needs to convince him or his manager. He is putting himself up on the open market and will go to who drafts him. He is well aware of that and football is his chosen profession.. No different to kids getting drafted to an interstate club. Any player these days who sooks and loses form won't get another contract. Otherwise its New Start.

Once he nominates he is fair game. He knows that. We do not have to tell him or anyone else of our intentions. If he is overseas and we feel obligated announce our intentions we would then let his manager know we are interested without committing because we may change our mind. If he adds much needed depth then why not. If the football department want him and we can afford him its negligent and soft not to draft him. I do not think we would tell him or his manager as it would be all over the news in minutes. If he specifically wants to avoid the MFC at all costs then he would nominate for the National Draft and take his chances. Carlton could split their pick 9 or trade up to a better than their next pick at 40.. A challenge for the foot in mouth blues. Clubs screw each other all the time especially the strong clubs. Carlton tried to screw the GC banking on a back down and it backfired making them look like fools.

Can you imagine the Cats or Hawks letting a player like Martin slide by in the draft. No way because they play it hard. They would make the call and then work on settling the player.

Ironically Carlton were the last club to draft a player through the PSD who wanted to go to the Magpies. A Port player. Port were not satisfied with the offer and let him go into the PSD. Carlton snapped him up. Once a player gets to the club they settle quickly. It comes down to whether we want him and can afford his asking price. Unless we advise him that we have no interest then he is in exactly the same boat as every other player nominated. You go where you are called in the draft. If we call him if he wants to play its with us. You can bet he will not walk away from the game. He can blame Carlton for not paying up.

If he goes into the draft he has to nominate the $$ he wants. This gives all clubs a chance to evaluate drafting him or not. If the $ suit us and we the club wants him I say go for it.

He has talent but does not get enough if the ball. Certainly not enough to warrant more than $500k a year. Carlton pick him up for $600k or so they will regret it when they can't afford the real stars.

We will get 1st dibs in the pre season draft if he nominates. GC will not be interested. Maybe we are not interested either. If he nominates for the National Carlton have pick 9, 43, 57, 70 and 85. He may not last until pick 43. Can't see Carlton trying to split pick 9 before the draft. Adelaide or Essendon may have a nibble in the 30s' in the National.

The difference between Pick 3 and pick 6 is around a pick 25. If Bonar is thrown in and is highly rated by Taylor and Co. then a deal looks good especially if we can get something else thrown in. Bonar is said to be on between $300 and $400k. GWS have some big money players coming out of contract next year. So they need to clear some $$$. If they bring in Green plus another high quality player at 3 their salaries are relatively small the first couple of years. So GWS will be ready to deal with their players as well as pick 6.

Its been a long hard and cold winter. Look forward to the preseason. It cannot come quick enough.

After seeing May do his hammy after a bout of tightness it would be crazy to risk Max after his hammy tightness last week. Let him go into the break with a clean bill of health. Every single time this year we have rolled the dice its turned out crap. Hamstring tightness is its way of telling you it tired and needs a break. Throw the gauntlet down to Pruessy and challenge him against his old team.

Yes, Its not always the pre draft favourites that go in predicted order. I would not be surprised if we go Ash either.

If GC do not get a PP no. 1 then I think we use pick 2 on Anderson or Rowell. If GC get the priority (spew, spew) then GWS will be keen to swap for it as they want Green and a player with say the Ds pick 3. A couple of first rounders and maybe a player for pick 3? GWS will likely get a 1st round for Coniglio if he goes. Never know we may want a player like Ash who has pace or Young who is pretty quick as well. However it is they need pace and outside smarts. Our quick players tend to ok but only in a straight line. We have recruited largely inside contested players. No amount of training can stop their instinct to be drawn to the ball. Playing Brayshaw etc on the wing shows this. Reduces a good inside player to an average outside player. Get a couple of really good outside smart players and we will cut the number of opposition goals from turnovers. Notice how for example how many times the magpies got the ball out of a pack to an outside player. It was frustrating how they do it but we stuff up.

Hope he is quick and has outside smarts! Good luck Kade, enjoy.

Looks like it could well be done. They need established players not kids. If they get one it will be Picks 1, 2 plus Lions first rounder. Plus Rankine available after missing 2018 with injury. The difference in pick value for us would be equivalent to a pick 49. Third rounder. You can bet we will not be compensated. Its the player available at pick 2 this year that really hurts if we miss out. Evidently there is daylight between the first 2 picks and the 3rd pick. That happens some drafts. Last year it was the top 3. Not happy if they get 1.