Lucifers Hero

And another possible change for points and drafting LEAGUE FLAGS CHANGES TO BIDDING SYSTEM ...the League is set to continue tying up any loose ends within its bidding process, including whether clubs can match first-round bids on father-son prospects with a host of later selections. "They are really different, a father-son versus a Northern Academy versus a Next Generation Academy. They're all in for different reasons. Having specifics around each of those three is really important for us," Dillon told Gettable. "When we first brought in the bidding system, we had the hidden picks where clubs were aggregating heaps of picks. We moved to change that. Sometimes, people look at it and say, 'How can you pick up a player in the early part of the draft by matching (a bid) with picks in the 40s?' Again, as we evolve, that's something to look at. We're taking feedback from clubs all the time on it." – Riley Beveridge The AFL closed the loophole some years ago by decreeing a club could not have more draft picks than list spots. They relaxed it in 2020 due to covid altho the connection was vague at best. It can only be a good thing if the AFL closes the loophole again and reverts to the draft picks = list spots rule. The downside is that 3rd and 4th round picks will have little trade value for points accumulation.

It looks like 'club led' trading contracted players is on the agenda. clubs-pushing-for-ways-to-lead-trades-of-contracted-players Currently happening with OOC players eg Hunt😢 last year. Trading in-contract players takes it to another level,

I guess GWS need all the 'pity' fans they can get... Yes, a demon for life! The only way to be!!

Best to check the criteria behind the rankings when commenting on Petracca which are: The points for the rankings have been weighted as follows: 6 points per goal: Unknown 4 points per goal assist: 2nd in Total GA 3 points per mark inside 50: Unknown 3 points per tackle inside 50: Unknown 2 points per score involvement: 1st in Total SI 1.5 points per inside 50: 1st in Total i50 1 point per behind: Unknown Petracca AFL ranking in red We may not like their methodology but given their critieria he deserves to the ranking. fwiw, I don't like their methodology so wouldn't put him in the same category as the tall forwards, small forwards etc. If nothing else it shows his impact for our team and his often underrated capacity to be the 'game changer' something that can't be measured by any stat.

If it were a Bentley I'm sure the shiraz would be well packed. Can't risk a good shiraz!! Benefit of doubt to DD: 'Bentleigh' is an auctocorrect problem...

So they have 3 'real' fans...😃

On paper they can make finals but are effectively 2 games behind 8th. Which team in the 8 is going to drop enough games for GWS to get in? And what about the teams above them? GWS are 14th with 5 other teams outside the 8 trying to make it. They will play 6 of the teams above them competing for a top 8 spot. And they play the dees and Port. Even if they win this week they still won't make the 8. I stand by the word 'fantasy' but if you prefer 'day-dreaming' fits equally well.

Not a lot which is to be expected from a club with few real fans! I believe this is our first trip to play in the Northern Territory. For a bit of perspective, those out-of-form Demons have been playing there since 2014, winning four and losing four. We got smacked by the Dees at the MCG last year to the tune of eleven goals. That was in Round 5 and there’s been a lot of water under the Todd River bridge since then. The bookies have us at very long odds for this game, which is fair enough because we haven’t taken a big scalp just yet. The wildcard is the bye. Over the past decade, our record after the mid-season break has been three wins, nine losses. Yes, we won last year, but that was against North. Dees carved up by the cats backs who ran it out with ease …. We get our running game going and a definite chance Oliver out is a massive loss. Their midfield looks nowhere near as potent in the last month of footy. Agreed. Oliver out is a huge loss for them. They still strangle teams but our scoring has been much improved. I honestly think it's a 50/50 game Bring the intense pressure and we are a chance. This ground is a much better advantage for us vs the MCG where we have always struggled. The other big win is the venue. Packing in 40k at the G would have been a huge advantage for melb. I rate the team we have on the park. I back our Mids against most teams If Kingers coaches down on the boundary, we’re a chance! My Favourites Because poster is in fantasy land! A few weeks ago, I thought we weren’t a finals side, but at 6-8 we’re still in the hunt. Because a fool and his money will soon be parted! I might see if I’ve got a spare couple of hundred dollars lying around somewhere Rain, hail or shine Dees by 3 goals... ...lots more if ground is dry...

All good - no accusation inferred or taken.

Sorry, I wasn't meaning to stifle discussion - just that I see the question on how big a factor loading is in explaining individual game results as a lose/lose discussion - not enough data to say one way or the other. fwiw, I'm in the camp that: we and all clubs have a loading program, it can vary from player to player and it can be timed depending on the fixture (travel, days break etc) and other non game factors. And the circumstances of each game are unique. Loading could affect some games, not others. It could affect some players, not others. That it significantly and simultaneously affects every player in a string of games is a stretch for me. Consequently, imv loading isn't a major factor for the results of any particular game. So by all means, discuss it. I will stay out of it. I did enough banging-head-on-wall on this last year. I confess, I haven't followed the discussion this year - I chimed in as I was shocked to see binman posting on this in the early hours of the morning.

OMG, that would be soooo not cool! Just more head-banging-on-wall...

Tbh, just about everyone agrees there is a loading program. You summed up the area of disagreement perfectly in this line: "But of course, it is far from the only factor. And i fully concede that i might be wrong and that is not the biggest factor. But it is 100% a factor - the only real debate is how big a factor" So the scope of the discussion is your position that loading is the biggest factor whereas others say it isn't the biggest factor (re impact on our performances). It isn't possible to demonstrate that either position is right in any given game as there is no data to measure the variables. It comes down to theories and assumptions. So imv, agreement on the area of debate is a head-banging-on-wall level exercise, as it was last year as it will be next year...

The easiest way to find the 2023 posts is to scroll through the 'Activity' in your profile. Tedious but at least they are all in one place. Click on the post and it will take you to the thread in which the post appeared. And, allow me to introduce you to the 2022 version: Just click on the title and it will take you straight to last year's thread. It may take a little while to scroll through to find your posts but it sure beats using the 'search' function.

It does seem like a thesis sometimes... But hey, binman is quite passionate about it...just hope the info is electronically stored...

Crikey, binman!! What an ungodly hour to be up let alone be writing about loading!! Sincerely hope your thoughts are in a Word doc to simply 'copy/paste' relevant parts as needed for each post. It does my head in to think you type each post aftresh! I really admire your commitment to the cause.

In terms of %, to offset not playing WCE we will just have to make the most of beating: North, Hawks, Blues and Giants. Plenty of % to be gained there if we want it enough. imv the top 2 and top 4 are set - just the respective orders to be decided.

It was a bit tongue-in-cheek as most DL's fervently want Freo to keep losing. Not I...well not for the next two weeks!

This may sound sacriligeous but I want Freo to beat Ess this week and WBD next week to give us a one game break into the top 4. They are the two main contenders for 4th and both have a very easy run home. The draft picks pale in significance with a spot in the top 4 @ EOS, on the line.

I reckon the 'bring injured players back through the vfl' is old school thinking especially when a player has worked through 5+ preseasons as have Salem and Petty. Sports science has come a long way since the days when players were readied for AFL match conditions through the reserves. Very few clubs go that way these days.

My MFCSS says he will come good this week. Even if he does we will still win!!

Very true. While their gun forwards have served them well, Carlton's gun forwards aren't doing much good without the ground level support. Too easily defended.

They were very slow putting up their 'Preview' thread - only went up Monday morning but they played the previous Thursday... ...so maybe you are right about the lack of internet down there.🤨 As an aside I laughed and laughed re the comment that the noise, post goals interupts their reading/knitting time!!

Big Footy Little confidence among their fans. Lots of criticisms of Cameron. Just play the kids now, we don’t have the spark to do any damage this year that’s a given. Season gone time to get games in as Port did last year. Season buster. Hard to call in Rd 15 but here we are. Firstly, let's just admit that the season is already gone. Things become a lot clearer and less distorted this way. 😅 We lose Dangerfield, they‘ll get Oliver back-it’s how the year has gone. I expect they will be favourites, still, I quite like us for this. Comon cats -we can win this. Melbourne on an off day aren't really any better than Bulldogs on an average day though, such as when Essendon and Freo beat them by 5 goals. We beat the Dogs by a few goals under the roof so it's not irrational to think we can take Melbourne all the way with a stronger side. With Danger and Bruhn likely out, and with others no sooner to return, I don't see this being particuarly close. Reckon they'll give us a relative spanking. Come on Clayton, give your body the extra week's rest it needs. Melbourne's midfield is elite. Even if Oliver doesn't play, there is Gawn, Petracca and Brayshaw. It's hard to win games with such a second-string midfield. It will be a great win if they find a way. We’re screwed if we dont win not losing % is crucial as it will be significant in the fight for 8th spot. A player doesn't get a pass for playing poorly because they've just had a child, that's ridiculous. I think night games in Geelong in general are no good. The weather + traffic makes it worse to get out of than the mcg. Accusations of laziness or softness - against the individual or the team - are the laziest intellectually that we see here. They are hunches fuelled by resentment and, i suppose, disappointment. Do we really know that the team partied too hard, returned to training unfit, are satisfied with last year's triumph, and thus are coasting etc etc? No we don't. The fact is from time to time any team can appear to lack intensity for a quarter, half or entire game. Ive heard some Geelong people complain that the noise from the crowd after we kick a goal interupts their reading/knitting time, if we do anything well it is having a whinge. I'm really worried about this one, Melbourne's strength is their midfield, not exactly something we are excelling with at the moment, they get goals out of the midfield as well, we will need to keep a serious eye on Petracca and Fritsch who seems to get heaps of opportunities to score Don't think Melbourne are that terrifying. Good team, but they've been up and down and a little like the Dogs (in a different way), their forward line can let them down. If they had a truly gun key forward they'd be much tougher. Don't see why this isn't winnable. If Tomahawk takes a pack mark they'll need a couple of ambulances ready to transport whoever he lands on, maybe a priest as well. My Favourite Our best if good enough to win it all still - but having only being able to deliver it for about 35 secs this season wont cut it . Dees by 6-8 goals but we will probably take our foot off the accelerator and win by 3 or 4.

I think he had been in hospital for about 5 days before leaving on the Sunday - the day before he took the run at the G after the KB game. According to reports which he confirmed it was during that 5 fay hospital stay that he took it upon himself to leave.

Not sure they had much choice last year as no one knew how covid would go once Victoria was fully open. But yes, they left the middle rounds far too late.