Lucifers Hero

Their despondency is matched only by ours on bf and on our very own on D’land! We will get absolutely smashed next week. Highly doubt it. Dees coming back from a slog in Alice Springs, it’s at Marvel, and their form has generally also been far from convincing. Reckon we'll beat the Dees. Can't show up to a game against division 4 bush league footballers but will turn it on against a top four side. We're bipolar, it's in our nature. Saints by 27 I can't see it happening, mate, but that would outstanding. Yes, it would be a very St Kilda type of thing Gawn and Grundy will work Marshall over. Their midfield will have an absolute day out against Crouch and the Witches Hats. May and Lever will take a billion marks between them. Demóns by heaps. Melbourne will be a class above. Dees by 35 We almost certainly be 4th if we win… if Collingwood beat WB, we’ll be 4th and a win clear of 5th! Could be the worst top 4 team at this stage of a season ever! 💪 We need to do something different up forward. May and Lever are going to have a field day if go out with the same set up we've been sticking too that we know doesn't work and only leads to opposition defenders dominating. If you have a quick read of their preview thread, the sky is falling and all hope is lost for them as well. You’d think the two teams were 4th and 5th bottom: We’re gonna win this and lose to suns the week after… literal lock. Stroll in the park for Melbourne. May to get 25 intercept marks and 300 supercoach. Couldn't get on fast enough for a demons bet. Melbourne may be struggling to score/kick straight, but they seem to be doing almost everything else pretty well. Their rucks and mids will be too much for us alone I fear. I would be pretty surprised if we don't lose this by 30+ points. We have lost all run and dare...they are going to absolute torch us through the middle and our defensive unit has been very ordinary of late. Unless they kick 5.25 we are not winning this game Just our luck the media get stuck into Melbourne before we play them! We are going to get destroyed here if we can't find a spark on the track this week. Melbourne by 60+ Melbourne is the only team we haven't beaten since 2019. As it'll be under a roof instead in all liklihood, Dees by 47 and May to both look like he sucked on a lemon in disgust on his way to the same amount of intercepts and us to maybe kick 10 goals, maybe. No idea what this is about but gave me a good laugh: You're forgetting to factor in the Dougal pirouette. It's like a boxer that has no skill but insane KO power. If it lands, we're in business. Could not believe my (piercing blue) eyes when he attempted another. Leave-without-pay type operator. There was a moment in the 4th where he picked the ball up inside our 50, without anyone on him (maybe an Eagles player 15m away directly infront of him) and instead of shifting his body from front-on to the Eagles player to the right of the Eagles player so he could get the kick away, he instead spun around on the spot and then as he turned back around, went to the right. Literally sat there and said 'What the *??'. He's incredible. Favourites: A round 17 clash between 4th and 5th on the ladder and both Melbourne and St.Kilda fans couldn't be any more pessimistic. I'm sorry Melbourne, but we're going to lose harder then you! You guys need to step up your game, the woe and despair in here is a pale comparison to the Demons board at the moment. We should take care of their form slump for them. They should start paying us to return teams to form. The dees poor kicking have made a mess of my predictions lately but will go out on a limb one more time: Dees by 3 goals! One thing is for sure; with two very defensive coaches this will be a dour game to watch☹️.

It looks like that is exactly what is happening - we lose the i50 ground ball, it bounces out and the mids and def get the turnover and back i50 it goes. Rinse and repeat. No wonder we had so many i50 for such little scoring result. Not sure I get this point - by losing the ground ball i50 it is the opp that are getting the turnover not our fwds. Did you mean the mids and def are assisting the turnover further upfield....

This has to be the most damning stat of all: "According to Champion Data, Melbourne is overall the best contested possession team in the competition. Specifically, Simon Goodwin’s side is ranked first in the league for contested possessions won in both the defensive 50 and midfield. But alarmingly, the Dees are ranked 16th for contested ball in their forward 50" Even if the talls bring it to ground our ground level players can't win it. So we are losing in the air and on the ground. So much for having so many defensive forwards!!

I wasn't exonerating the mids and fwds nor blaming the defenders for the loss. Simply reflecting on a key moment of which there were many. Might just leave this response to an earlier post and check out of DL again for a few days:

I also think our defence is outstanding. Not sure yesterday was one of their better performances. I doubt there will be many positional changes as this is the time we and other clubs bed down the best 22. Having said that Fritsch's absence will force some sort of forward group rethink.

Whatever was in the first few pages it is still no reason to generalise and say many poster's analysis is shallow. Posters were clearly disappointed and angry. Let them vent. It is what a fan forum is about. Thank you for not putting me in the 'sticking your head in the sand' category.

That was a rare lapse by Lever. Turned his back on Kelly and jogged past him. Never a smart thing to do even if 60mts out as we weren't set up behind the ball to protect our goals.

I think that is unfair. Most posters accept that fatigue is a factor be it physical, mental or from loading. The debate is whether it is the dominant factor.

I agree that we press too high and it is our system. However, on field leaders have a role to play in the tactics for moment-to-moment action especially when there is no opportunity for coaches to send a runner out, which can only be when a goal is scored. And most clubs train and train and train possible end of game scenarios so not to rely on coaches in those frantic minutes. I would hope May and Lever have some license to employ one of those scenarios when coaching directive isn't available. I don't really wish to start a blaming game. My comment on lack of on field leadership wasn't intended to blame anyone but imv a fair observation of what happened: our system broke down.

Where were our defenders in the last few minutes!!! 3 minutes to go and not a single defender within cooee of the goal square! Kelly's kick bounced before going over the line... Its worrying if leaving the goal square undefended with mere minutes to go is our MO for protecting a small lead. Sure we were attacking to win but leaving most of the d50 wide open made us sitting ducks for a Giant's 'out the back' goal or a Kelly long range kick. Poor leadership by defenders for end of game defence tactics.

Folks, this is a football forum...🙄

Not if you watch it on Ch 7

If the AFL close the loophole again clubs will have to 'pay' more for F/S and Academy players.

And another possible change for points and drafting LEAGUE FLAGS CHANGES TO BIDDING SYSTEM ...the League is set to continue tying up any loose ends within its bidding process, including whether clubs can match first-round bids on father-son prospects with a host of later selections. "They are really different, a father-son versus a Northern Academy versus a Next Generation Academy. They're all in for different reasons. Having specifics around each of those three is really important for us," Dillon told Gettable. "When we first brought in the bidding system, we had the hidden picks where clubs were aggregating heaps of picks. We moved to change that. Sometimes, people look at it and say, 'How can you pick up a player in the early part of the draft by matching (a bid) with picks in the 40s?' Again, as we evolve, that's something to look at. We're taking feedback from clubs all the time on it." – Riley Beveridge The AFL closed the loophole some years ago by decreeing a club could not have more draft picks than list spots. They relaxed it in 2020 due to covid altho the connection was vague at best. It can only be a good thing if the AFL closes the loophole again and reverts to the draft picks = list spots rule. The downside is that 3rd and 4th round picks will have little trade value for points accumulation.

It looks like 'club led' trading contracted players is on the agenda. clubs-pushing-for-ways-to-lead-trades-of-contracted-players Currently happening with OOC players eg Hunt😢 last year. Trading in-contract players takes it to another level,

I guess GWS need all the 'pity' fans they can get... Yes, a demon for life! The only way to be!!

Best to check the criteria behind the rankings when commenting on Petracca which are: The points for the rankings have been weighted as follows: 6 points per goal: Unknown 4 points per goal assist: 2nd in Total GA 3 points per mark inside 50: Unknown 3 points per tackle inside 50: Unknown 2 points per score involvement: 1st in Total SI 1.5 points per inside 50: 1st in Total i50 1 point per behind: Unknown Petracca AFL ranking in red We may not like their methodology but given their critieria he deserves to the ranking. fwiw, I don't like their methodology so wouldn't put him in the same category as the tall forwards, small forwards etc. If nothing else it shows his impact for our team and his often underrated capacity to be the 'game changer' something that can't be measured by any stat.

If it were a Bentley I'm sure the shiraz would be well packed. Can't risk a good shiraz!! Benefit of doubt to DD: 'Bentleigh' is an auctocorrect problem...

So they have 3 'real' fans...😃

On paper they can make finals but are effectively 2 games behind 8th. Which team in the 8 is going to drop enough games for GWS to get in? And what about the teams above them? GWS are 14th with 5 other teams outside the 8 trying to make it. They will play 6 of the teams above them competing for a top 8 spot. And they play the dees and Port. Even if they win this week they still won't make the 8. I stand by the word 'fantasy' but if you prefer 'day-dreaming' fits equally well.

Not a lot which is to be expected from a club with few real fans! I believe this is our first trip to play in the Northern Territory. For a bit of perspective, those out-of-form Demons have been playing there since 2014, winning four and losing four. We got smacked by the Dees at the MCG last year to the tune of eleven goals. That was in Round 5 and there’s been a lot of water under the Todd River bridge since then. The bookies have us at very long odds for this game, which is fair enough because we haven’t taken a big scalp just yet. The wildcard is the bye. Over the past decade, our record after the mid-season break has been three wins, nine losses. Yes, we won last year, but that was against North. Dees carved up by the cats backs who ran it out with ease …. We get our running game going and a definite chance Oliver out is a massive loss. Their midfield looks nowhere near as potent in the last month of footy. Agreed. Oliver out is a huge loss for them. They still strangle teams but our scoring has been much improved. I honestly think it's a 50/50 game Bring the intense pressure and we are a chance. This ground is a much better advantage for us vs the MCG where we have always struggled. The other big win is the venue. Packing in 40k at the G would have been a huge advantage for melb. I rate the team we have on the park. I back our Mids against most teams If Kingers coaches down on the boundary, we’re a chance! My Favourites Because poster is in fantasy land! A few weeks ago, I thought we weren’t a finals side, but at 6-8 we’re still in the hunt. Because a fool and his money will soon be parted! I might see if I’ve got a spare couple of hundred dollars lying around somewhere Rain, hail or shine Dees by 3 goals... ...lots more if ground is dry...

All good - no accusation inferred or taken.

Sorry, I wasn't meaning to stifle discussion - just that I see the question on how big a factor loading is in explaining individual game results as a lose/lose discussion - not enough data to say one way or the other. fwiw, I'm in the camp that: we and all clubs have a loading program, it can vary from player to player and it can be timed depending on the fixture (travel, days break etc) and other non game factors. And the circumstances of each game are unique. Loading could affect some games, not others. It could affect some players, not others. That it significantly and simultaneously affects every player in a string of games is a stretch for me. Consequently, imv loading isn't a major factor for the results of any particular game. So by all means, discuss it. I will stay out of it. I did enough banging-head-on-wall on this last year. I confess, I haven't followed the discussion this year - I chimed in as I was shocked to see binman posting on this in the early hours of the morning.

OMG, that would be soooo not cool! Just more head-banging-on-wall...

Tbh, just about everyone agrees there is a loading program. You summed up the area of disagreement perfectly in this line: "But of course, it is far from the only factor. And i fully concede that i might be wrong and that is not the biggest factor. But it is 100% a factor - the only real debate is how big a factor" So the scope of the discussion is your position that loading is the biggest factor whereas others say it isn't the biggest factor (re impact on our performances). It isn't possible to demonstrate that either position is right in any given game as there is no data to measure the variables. It comes down to theories and assumptions. So imv, agreement on the area of debate is a head-banging-on-wall level exercise, as it was last year as it will be next year...