Lucifers Hero

Do we have any cases under official (hotel) quarantine in Victoria? I think the current covid rules don't require home quarantine, just home isolation of which a huge % of +'ve people aren't doing. What is 'old' ? Apparently about half of recent cases have been under 40. My understanding of 'Active Cases' is Total Infections less Total Recoveries. Handy website with relevant info. https://covidlive.com.au/vic However Active is defined, the relatively high and constant number of cases aren't coming down at a rate that would suggest restrictions will be lifted anytime soon.

Goodwin doesn't mention Gus or his role in today's press conf. So 'pushed out' looks like mischief making by HS , drawing from past commentary and probably reading DL about who plays in the middle. Click Bait! Would be surprised if Gus doesn't get a fair amount of mid time.

WINNERS Port Adelaide: No short breaks and pretty easy opponents sets them up perfectly to finish on top of the ladder. Richmond: They avoid playing in WA at all this year, and have longer breaks heading into showdowns with the Eagles and Cats than their opponents. Hawthorn: The easiest remaining draw including four home games which could still be moved to Tasmania if they open their borders. LOSERS West Coast: Five games in 19 days, including two four-day breaks heading into their toughest games against Richmond and St Kilda. Essendon: They face three flag contenders in 11 days, plus their rescheduled game with Melbourne in Round 18, who’ll likely be playing for a spot in the eight. Sydney: They have games left against the teams currently 1st, 2nd and 3rd on the ladder. rounds-14-to-18-winners-and-losers About time Ess had a tough run. They have been blessed with little travel. Ditto Saints and Richmond.

I don't see it as being too bad: Round 14 comes after 4 rounds a week apart Sat (13), Sat(12), Sat(11), Sun(10). Sure rnds 15 (Swans, Thurs), 16 (Freo, Mon) and 17 (Giants, Sat) will be a bit nasty but then we have another 7 day break to rnd 18. And some bright notes: we can stay in Cairns for the Syd and Freo games and we do not play any team that is coming off a bye. Without comparing I suspect it is no worse than most teams. It looks like the AFL is saving the Ess game to see if is a play-off for a spot in the 8.

Below is a table to summarise 'Wins Needed' and 'Games Left' in the run home. It assumes 10 games required to make the 8. My contention is the first 4 will make the 8 (not necessarily top 4) and the last 3 (and those below them on the ladder) can't make the 8. So the discussion is for the 7 (middle) teams vying for the remaining 4 spots in the 8. My thoughts: Most Likely to make it: Saints (need 3 wins): Likely wins: Ess, Hawks. I think they will find another win and make it. Tigers (need 3.5 to 4 wins): Likely wins: GCS, Ade, Freo. I think they will find another win and make it. That leaves two spots: Pies (need 3.25 to 4 wins): Likely wins: North, Carlton, GCS. Can't see another 'obvious' win. Giants (need 4 wins): Likely wins: Ade, Carlton, Freo. Need another win. Ess (need 4.5 to 5 wins): Likely wins: Hawks but can't find other 'obvious' wins. % hurts them. They won't make it. Dees (need 5 wins): No 'obvious' wins and no 'obvious' losses. Every game will be a dog fight. Bulldogs: (need 6 wins): Will lose to Geelong and Eagles which means they fall one game short and have a poor % to overcome. So on my reckoning the last two spots come down to Pies, Giants, Dees. Special mention to Freo: They are the 'wild card'. I said early this week that and won't be easy to beat. They have recently beaten the Saints and Pies. They have a very good system and getting better at it with each game. They won't make the 8 but could have a big say in who does, playing 3 of the 7 teams (in blue) vying for a spot in the 8.

Another critical figure to get down is 'Active Cases'. There are currently about 7,800. One would think it needs to be 100-200, especially if adding 20 per day. But Active Cases is proving to be a stubborn number to shift. After nearly 2 weeks of stage 4 it has barely moved. Three weeks ago we were getting 500 -700 new cases a day. On an average 14 day recovery cycle with 300-400 new cases of late the Active Cases should have been coming down by several hundred a day. Gov't can't ease restrictions with thousands of people walking around with it, even with a week or two of zero new cases. So, I see buckley's chance of restrictions easing any time soon. As awful as it may sound, we may still have some level of restrictions at Christmas. Every chance the AFL has been briefed by the Government that some sort of restrictions will be in place next year.

Nothing against Pendlebury personally but if they want to play with fire I hope he breaks down, they play one down, lose the game and he is out for the season. As I said, I'll believe it when I see him at the bounce.

Will wait for the first bounce to see if Pendlebury plays. A few weeks ago he was withdrawn during the warm up. His replacement was dressed and ready to go so it wasn't a last minute tweak. Wouldn't surprise if they don't repeat the stunt this week.

Hope you get to go and barrack for all of us DL's. Will be with you in spirit!

Yep, very happy with that variation!

While it is not ideal to not have a proven ruckman up against Grundy I reckon our midfield is much better than theirs. They have a rusty Sidebottom, a borderline fit Pendlebury (if he plays), Treloar out, Hoskin- Eliot borderline fitn (if he plays) which only leaves Taylor Adams. Put Harmes or Viney onto him and our midfielders should beat theirs, even tho they have the ruck advantage. Grundy isn't in great form anyway. We have 6 day rest to their 3.5. Their fwd line is suss at the moment. Eliot coming in will help. Stephenson and Milochek are out of form. Still very optimistic about winning this.

Preuss has not been on an injury list for some months. That he has only played one scratch match can only be because we did not include him in our hubs until the last intake. Then he had to do the two weeks compulsory quarantine away from the team hub so couldn't train or practice with the team. Leaving Preuss behind knowing we would have a condensed fixture was optimistic and somewhat reckless. If Preuss isn't ready to play or can't play out the game we have only ourselves to blame.

Posted this in another thread but equally relevant here: I feel time is starting to run out for teams that have played 11 games and outside the 8 (or in the lower part of the 8). I think we (and some other teams) have a real advantage over them. Use Bulldogs as an example: Assume 10 games needed to make finals: Bulldogs (on 5 wins from 11 games) need 5 wins from remaining 6 games. Whereas Demons (on 5 wins from 10 games) need 5 wins from remaining 7 games. Same logic applies to teams at the lower end of the 8. Maybe the Ess forced bye may come back and help us...

We have worked LJ pretty hard with 3 games in 2.5 weeks games with two lots of 4 day breaks so not really a surprise. I suspect he won't be the last. The policy of not resting players is catching up with us.

I chose Freo as their % is really poor and they would have to win an extra game to overtake us (unless we lose a few by a long margin). As an aside, I feel time is starting to run out for teams that have played 11 games and still outside the 8 (or in the lower part of the 8). I think we (and some other teams) have a real advantage over them. Use Bulldogs as an example: Assume 10 games needed to make finals: Bulldogs (on 5 wins from 11 games) need to win 5 from remaining 6 games. Whereas Demons (on 5 wins from 10 games) need to win 5 from remaining 7 games. Same logic applies to teams at the lower end of the 8. Maybe the Ess forced bye may come back and help us...

^^^^ Very impressive by Gus and a real vote of confidence from the coaches to make him our dominant CBA. As an aside, any idea what is included in CBA? With 18 goals scored plus a CB at start of each quarter equals 22. Excluding the CBA by Ruckman (EJ. TMac) I count 62 CBA by mid-fielders. Something doesn't compute...

Tipping those that can keep our competitors for finals out of the 8 or within striking range to overtake their spot in the 8. Sydney North Dees Crows Freo Saints Hawks Rich Underlined are unlikely but it is good to dream

Latest from AFL website: Max Gawn Shoulder/Knee - Test Marty Hore Quad/Toe - Indefinite Kade Kolodjashnij Concussion - Indefinite Jay Lockhart Corked thigh - Test Alex Neal-Bullen Suspension - 3 matches Harry Petty Groin- Indefinite Aaron Nietschke Knee - Season Jack Viney Concussion - Test Updated: Tuesday, August 11

Pies 'official' injury list as of last night. Dayne Beams Mental health Indefinite Jordan De Goey Finger 6-8 weeks Jamie Elliott Ear -Test Will Hoskin-Elliott Knee -Test Jeremy Howe Knee 6-8 weeks Will Kelly Elbow- Season Scott Pendlebury Quad 1-2 weeks Isaac Quaynor Shin 1-2 weeks Adam Treloar Hamstring 3-4 weeks Updated: Wednesday, August 12 The Pendlebury ref could be a furfy. Even if Elliot and Hoskin-Elliot play their fwd line doesn't look too flash. Haven't kicked more than 65 pts in the 8 weeks since they left Melbourne. And, didn't Roughead not finish the game due to concussion? 3.5 day break to our game would put him in doubt.

imv it is the Geelong game which will come back to haunt us: We experimented with 1 tall fwd (TMc who was badly out of form) - I wrote at the time it was very risky as we had few wins in the bank. And it disrupted our ball movement. We deserted our i50 when Geelong kicked from a pt or a mark, allowing them to chip short kicks around until our wall broke down . At no time did we change the wall outside the 50 arc and try and man up. So much for our supposed fwd pressure!! We were ill prepared. Goodwin said they didn't play the way he thought the game should be played. May said we planned for them but they changed tactics. Tactics (possession and control) that have beaten us time and time again. 112 marks to 52 says it all!! Neither the coaches nor players adjusted for the changed Geelong tactics. It was another games where we win some key stats (H.O and Clearances) but were badly beaten all over the ground.and We lost by 3 points. If we just miss finals that is the game that cost us.

Here is an article about how we are changing our game style. One thing is to not play-on as much and slow down our response time. We saw the beginnings of vs Carlton in the second qtr but we weren't too good at it then back then. But have improved immensely in the last month or two melbourne-demons-stats-finals-chances-analysis Less chaos, more composue! I quote it here because there is an interesting stat about Jack. 15 of 17 players have reduced there play on %. Jack has increased his by 12%. For a while I've had a sense that Jack plays his own game, his way. It may be a long bow to draw but one wonders if he is playing to coaching instructions. Edit: Fritsch has also gone up but I suspect that has more to do with moving from defence to fwd.

How good is that! Quote from the article: "Geelong monster Tom Hawkins is clearly the best one-on-one mark inside 50m. From Rounds 6-11 who is the second best? Is it Charlie Dixon? Perhaps Dustin Martin? What about Josh Kennedy? Wrong. It is Melbourne’s Sam Weideman" This year Weideman is averaging an elite three marks inside 50m. Sam came back in round 6. If that doesn't prove Wallace wrong, well... Not marking was a big knock on him last year. Not only is he marking, he is using his body and position well.

Guessing that his foot injuries prevent him from jumping to any height.

Rubbish! And what has Petracca got to do with this thread. At the risk of diverting this thread I want to put the record straight for Petracca and the claim it has taken 6 years. It hasn't! Year 1 - 2015. Out injured with ACL Year 2 - 2016. Out injured (toe) and debuted in round 6. Played mainly fwd. Kicked 12.11 Year 3 - 2017. Had his first full pre-season.Played mainly fwd. Kicked 22.6 Year 4 - 2018. Played mainly fwd. Had poor goal kicking 19.23 Year 5 - 2019 Played fwd and mid. Leading club goal kicker 22.14. Came 5th in BnF. Year 6 - 2020 A stellar year. Many DL's have mercilessly criticised him prior to this year but the results show 2017 and 2019 were good years. 2020 is no surprise to those who have been paying attention. Progressive improvement over 80 games in 3 - 4 years (2016 to 2019) to reach 'elite' level is outstanding. Still relatively inexperienced in AFL terms. There is no need to to refer back to his first 2 or 3 years. I get the feeling you just don't like him.

Damn! Just when I was thought the party had only just begun... '...can't quite compute 'party is over' with 'pollyanna'...? You make a valid point about the wider ovals. Hopefully, Langford and AvB (or whoever is on the other wing) help cover and defend the wider grounds better.