Lucifers Hero

Lower energy/fatigue levels from the Saints' Cairns game could be offset by lower energy/fatigue levels of our 7 recently returned covid players, moreso the 5 from last week. Even if they are a few % off, collectively it could be significant. We faded in the 4th qtr last week. Can't afford to this week as Saints will take their opportunities. Minimise their i50 entries and we win. Dees by 3-4 goals.

To read: https://www.melbournefc.com.au/news/1118293 To hear:

Interesting comment by Beveridge that coming off a 5 day break and last weeks 'high intensive running' game hurt them last night with fatigue and injuries. Why play Bontempelli 81% of game time knowing he had injury. Did they really need to run intensively last week when the game was won? Sure they got the big % boost vs Ess last week but it possibly cost them a win this week and more injuries for the coming weeks. He could learn from out strategy and go defensive in the last quarter when we have a good lead, especially knowing they had a 5 day break. Looks like poor game time management, all round.

We play North and WCE in next two rounds. We must get big % boosts; none off this shutting down in the last quarter that we have of late. Time to put the pedal to the floor. As @Sir Why You Littlewould say: "Show no mercy" Otherwise, we don't really get another big % boost chance as the rest of our games are against current top 8 sides or a few pushing for top 8, the latter being Bulldogs, Power and Crows. If other contenders continue to beat up on the likes of Eagles, North, Ess, Suns the % diff can and most likely will cost us top 2 or heaven forbid top 4 as they have, 'on paper' easier draws than us.

Any one have ideas or info on what this measure means or how it is calculated?

A slight diversion while I'm talking Ess. I drove past the Hangar/Essendon Fields on the backway to Tullamarine airport recently. What a desolate, inhospitable place it is. Didn't see any 'fields' except the ovals. Set in an industrial estate with not a skerrick of urban life around it. Not to mention noise and air pollution! Give me Casey any day of the week.

While he did ok last year to me it looks like the blowtorch on Rutten is also similar Neeld than Noble. Things like changing game plan, players confused on their/each others roles, hand balling anywhere but forward, under performing high draft picks, bad early losses, ditched most of their senior players, lacking leadership etc etc. Ess have a few more injuries than we had but one wonders what if their development, training, rehab and recovery standards are up to scratch. Ess have some of the best resources in the league; North are a very poor cousin. Both in the hot seat but the media seems to be going harder on Rutten than Noble in a way I haven't seen since they went for Neeld. I cut Noble some slack because of the decisions that decimated the list, football staff and the coaching panel before he arrived. The best thing North did was move on Glen Archer last year but the damage was done. He had been a one-man band running that club. The Board etc should stay the course. Not sure if Ess or North, for very different reasons, have the patience to stay the course.

Players didn't break any rules being out partying but not the smartest move. simpson-furious-over-eagles-players-partying-at-leederville-nightclub knowing their club is in dire straits. Nelson played Friday night, parties at nightclub Saturday, trains this week and goes into iso along with other players. It doesn't mean Nelson passed it on to teammates but as I said not the smartest move. The article also says Richmond players: Nathan Broad, Dion Prestia, Liam Baker, Ivan Soldo and co-captain Dylan Grimes were at the same venue. According to the AFL website, Prestia and Vlaustuin will miss this week through illness, "...(Tigers) say they are not in the AFL's health and safety protocols?"

I received 6 extra GA barcodes for the Saints game, which was a nice surprise. Anyone else receive some extras? However, the 'Forward' option is 'Grey' so isn't active. Any ideas on how to forward? Edit: I just saw @daisycutteranswer to the last question a few posts above this.

I have a little sympathy for WCE as covid is not of their making but not a lot. Absences for iso reasons is looking like a smoke screen for other issues. Injury management. Overweight players Adequatcy of pre sesason work. They have rarely missed finals so do they have the grit to dig deep and play when each game is a drudge? Are some injuries and players being re-injured because their rehab effort hasn't been up to standard, rushed back too early or both? Inadequate game plan. We will never know but WCE could easily be bottom 4 even if they never had a single case of covid iso.

Somewhere I read that our 'pressure acts' and 'defence of ball movement' are well down on last year. I get what 'pressure acts' are and how they are measured. But what does 'defence of ball movement' mean and what elements are measured in that stat? I'm guessing it includes things like: opps goal to goal ball movement and a score maybe with us touching it or maybe not, turnovers when they have the ball, turnovers when we have the ball...? Any clarification would be appreciated. Then I can work if I should be worried...🤔

I would give Horne-Francis bonus points by the way he flew the flag for his team last week. Didn't flinch. Great leadership, character and tenacity. Hopefully the award is assessed beyond stats and flair.

It appears Freo may have a few players in covid protocols: "It’ll be a nervous week at Fremantle after its big win over Geelong. Rory Lobb, Blake Acres and Travis Colyer are believed to be isolating, ruling them out against the Roos, although the club is yet to confirm anything. Michael Frederick, Griffin Logue and Lloyd Meek were all notable absentees at training on Tuesday as the club waits on more test results...while Hayden Young and Heath Chapman will be eligible to return from their isolation periods". Lucky for them they are playing North this week. Given the first Freo covid HS protocol case was reported on Monday and they played Geelong on Saturday I wouldn't be surprised if cases turn up at the Cats, unless the Freo guys are only 'close contacts' (by WA rules) which would seem long odds.

If ANB doesn't make it back we have Pickett and Sparrow as front half players returning. Who goes out from Melksham, Bedford, Dunstan? Can see a case for each one to stay. Another difficult decision for selection committee.

I think it is more to do with not getting a training session into him and assess how he pulls up. As the game is on Sunday they might try him out on Saturday. Similarly Viney missed team training for all his iso time and had a training session the day before the ANZAC game and played. Having said that @Demons11 often has good intel so I wouldn't be surprised if ANB doesn't play.

It was one of the Fox shows. Its also discussed in this article: is-this-saints-tactic-legal-star-recruit-sacrifices-his-own-game

Goodwin was asked about that 'stop Langdon' tactic on AFL 360. He said something like: the coaches will work out some strategies to counter that. I would assume the same to counter the 'drop someone behind May tactic'. Having said that I wonder whether May leaving someone behind him was deliberate to support a defence that was short on manpower with Petty out, Lever not 100% and Smith going off injured. Commentators talk so confidently of ops tactics but seem to assume others will get away with it, not that the Hawks did as they still lost. Or that we will not counter. Of course we are going to develop counter tactics when a side tries something new! A bit like when Adelaide charged our defence thru the middle; the following week Lever was hoarse from yelling: 'close the corridor' to upfield mids/defenders.

Would expect Hunt to have the shut down role on Higgins, possibly Petty/May on King/Membrey. They don't have many other avenues to goal. As an aside, In a footy show they showed how Hill is blocking for King, sometimes illegally but because he is ahead of the ball the umps don't notice it. Hill runs straight toward where King is as if he is heading toward the ball. Then he runs between King and his opp or 'accidentally' runs into or bumps King's opp enabling King to break away and mark. Worked every time. Hill's op needs to detour him so we can get genuine 1vs1 or 2vs1 with KIng with Lever a chance to intercept.

A snippet from this 'Age' article about ruckmen ruck-trade-merry-go-round "The most significant signature of all is Melbourne’s out-of-contract emerging star Luke Jackson. Melbourne has outlined a compelling three-year succession plan for their premiership forward-ruckman to switch roles with Gawn and become first ruck and tall forward as part of their pitch for him to re-sign. Originally from Perth, Jackson enjoys living in Melbourne and is attracted to staying but is also weighing up if he wants to return to live in Perth at some point. When is the right time to make a move, and what is best for his football development?" My take: he will stay but mulling over whether he signs for a short/medium/long term.

From Saintsational forum: TheirThread Title: "I honestly believe we can beat the dees if: " ...Ratten leaves his ego in the locker room and makes a statement. Just like when Dal and Milne were dropped... ...Gawn, Oliver, May and Petracca all contract COVID before the weekend. But it will still be close! More seriously, even the best teams can be beaten if they have an off day. But, if Melbourne play to their usual form, they are certain to win ...if we swap midfields. ...we start playing 2 hours before they do and we don't kick a point! If we are to have any chance, which is unlikely, we need to make a few few changes to improve our skills, pace and decision making. The Dees haven't be blowing teams out of the water, I don't think they're invincible by any stretch of the imagination. Not writing us off because off a bad game in poor conditions but let’s be real, the demons are good, real good. That is not underselling our ability but I think Melbourne is just better so I am hoping they have an off day and we play well Yeah , we can beat the dees. All we have to do is kick a bigger score than they do. Easy peasy. Wouldn’t it be a great way to announce ourselves as genuine contenders. Not just beat them, give them a real spanking My favourite: The game will go 3 ways We play our best , they are slightly off , we win by a close margin . We play our best , they play their best , they have too much class and win by 2 to 5 goals . We play [censored] , they play their best and smash us , 6+ goals. Chances: 1 about 10%. 2 and 3 90%

@Damo For info, 2021 Official final figures: 2021 CLUB MEMBERSHIP TOTALS CLUB 2021 TOTAL Adelaide Crows 60,232 Brisbane Lions 40,289 (club record) Carlton 81,302 (club record) Collingwood 82,527 Essendon 81,662 Fremantle 50,342 Geelong Cats 70,293 (club record) Gold Coast SUNS 19,460 (club record) GWS GIANTS 30,185 Hawthorn 77,079 Melbourne 53,188 (club record) North Melbourne 46,357 (club record) Port Adelaide 56,532 (club record) Richmond 105,084 (club record) St Kilda 55,802 (club record) Sydney Swans 50,144 West Coast Eagles 106,422 (club record) Western Bulldogs 46,541

It appears on club websites but not all clubs publish them and when they do they are not easy to find. This is a recent update from a bigfootoy thread: Carlton 77,000. For comparison, other AFL Club Member Numbers From Club websites as at 7 April: Essendon: 70,482 Freemantle: 45,298 Geelong: 58,547 Melbourne: 55,595 North Melbourne: 42,234 * Richmond: 93,587 St Kilda: 50.891 Western Bulldogs: 45,503 * Note: North website says "42,234 members including 3,050 AFLW Members" It is hard to compare because of the different categories of memberships each club offers.

Feel for Smith. He can't take a trick. Another medium term injury. 8-10 weeks is huge.

Maybe. I think Dodoro and Mahoney are separate organisational units whereas at the Dees the two were combined under Mahoney's jurisdiction (until the 2020 restructure when they were split ala Ess). A fly on the wall at Ess might be fun if the two need to negotiate what they think is best for Shiel or anyone else.

Shiel is discussed in Point 5 of this article: six-points It talks about his strengths being assets at GWS but underutilised at Essendon where his weaknesses are then exposed. "The simple truth is this: Essendon, a young team that plays a short-kicking game and seems intent to move the ball slowly towards sole tall target Peter Wright, has no use for a player like Dylan Shiel." He has several years on his contract reported at $800k pa. If Ess can't use him effectively that is a lot of coin out of their sal cap. Like other teams that want to do sal cap dumps for a seemingly 'non-essential' player they may be better off cutting their losses and accept an average draft pic ala GWS (Patton, HWSNBN), Coll (Stephenson, Phillips), GCS (Brodie). If they want a good pick eg 2nd round they need to pay part of his salary for a few years ala Coll (Treloar). But then it is Dodoro clubs will be dealing with. We are not one of the teams mentioned where he might be needed.