Lucifers Hero

This is what the run home looks like: Many 8pt games among the top 8 (red and blue) and a fair smattering of their games vs teams 9 to 12 (green). Even the teams in 13 to 18 can do damage. We are 1 game and significant % above 5th. % is difficult to move at this time of year so that % gap is virtually another game. By my reckoning: The top 8 is set 15 wins needed for top 4. So we need three wins. Our % is an extra buffer. I don't know which three we will win but I am certain we will win three. 17 wins or even 16 +% needed for top 2. Any team on 11 wins or less needs to win at least 5 of the last 6 to make top 2. Given that Freo, Lions, Blues and Pies also have a very difficult run home, our chances of top 2 are excellent! So never fear, dear DL's. The question isn't which games we will win, it is who is in a position to dislodge us from top 4 or top 2? So for mine, top 4 it is and top 2 is ours for the keeping! Anyway, I think we can win it from anywhere in the 8.

Realistically, Saints and Dogs are out of the running for the 8. Beveridge knows that and has given up on 2022 saying the will look to the future. It doesn't mean they will be easier to beat but they aren't chasing finals this year.

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I'm very confident. Lots and lots of 8-pt games among top 9 teams to come. And quite a few of top 8 games with teams that want to make a mark. We have a game and large % on 5th. The % is almost worth another game. Short of the wheels falling off and we win our fair share we are top 4. Still a good chance for top 2, I reckon...

Not sure I'm so happy about the Lions losing as it is easier for Sydney to make top 4 as they have at least 4 very winnable games coming up. Other than Geelong it is, on paper, the easiest run home. I would rather play Lions in the QF than Sydney.

I'm also not a fan of his antics. I'll watch with the volume off. Despite the posturing by commentators etc networks and venues love him because he brings fans in. If Nick was playing Federer or Nadal I might be torn for whom to barrack. But Novak? Easy choice: Nick.

Wimbledon The Aussie Bad Boy, Kyrgios vs Djokovic who tried to back door his way into the Aussie Open? A challenging choice as to who to barrack for. Who do you barrack for? I'm barracking for the Aussie. Who wins? Kyrgios to win; he has beaten Dyokovic the two times they have played.

Would love to see North get up, not only because it messes with Coll finals hopes but also to get themselves a real boost. Edit: it looks like Coll got the rub of the green with the umps in the first qtr...

Hugh shout out to Paddy McCartin. After all he has been through to be playing a big role for Sydney and now getting the praise he deserves. Fantastic to see Paddy able to start fulfilling his significant potential. In a way he lived in Petracca's shadow. Kudos to Sydney for taking the risk and giving Paddy another chance and to make a name for himself in his own right.

Correct. He has a bunch of dees: TLA’s stable of Dees included Angus Brayshaw, Ben Brown, Bayley Fritsch, Luke Jackson, Trent Rivers, Charlie Spargo, Tom Sparrow, Jack Viney, James Jordon, coach Simon Goodwin and assistant coach Adem Yze.

I'm not familiar with the Freo players but would be very happy to get a forward and a ruckman who is ready to play AFL So Cox or Treacy would fit the fwd bill, not sure if tall enough for the ruckman or as a possible Max replacement. As a second ruck/fwd we have Weideman and TMc in the short therm. Most clubs have at least 3 true ruckman so we would need to get at least one from the upcoming trade/draft. Bulldogs have now stated their interest in Lobb. Logue has also been linked to the Bulldogs. If both go to the Bulldogs, I can see their first round pick currently #9 in play. I wouldn't mind a top 10 pick as part of a deal as we don't have one atm. I think if Freo (or WCE) want Jackson they will find a way to do a fair deal (despite misgivings about Peter Bell's 'tactics'). Haven't given up on Jackson.

Sound logic. Hope it isn't so. On that logic Gus is also gone. 😭

You can bet his manger has! And Freo sound a bit loose-lipped.

The thumb is critical for a player like Oliver as he handballs so much and for 'touch' for his many possessions. But then, an 80% Oliver is far better than not having him play at all. He is tough and he won't even flinch as long as opp players don't target his hand. He will just have to kick more than handball.

Lions might lose to Ess tomorrow as they are decimated by injuries and covid protocols. I prefer they win and make top 4 as I think they won't get their act together in time to succeed in finals this year and will keep some of the other threatening teams out of the top 4 eg Sydney and potentially Carlton, Collingwood and Tigers. Let those 4 finish 5th to 8th and 2 get eliminated in first week of finals. Dangerous threats reduced. Freo are winning but also losing their mojo. Hope they keep winning to help keep above teams out of top 4 and imv are also not ready to succeed in finals. The exception to wanting them to win is when they play us in the last month.

Or do it with short kicks and some run down the boundary. 3-4 kick/handballs and it is in the hands of Fritsch 40m out!

Or occasionally switch to JJ's side of the ground which Geelong wouldn't have expected then caught on the 'wrong' side, limiting their defensive set ups on the JJ side..

LOL. If we hadn't taken him he would be at the Suns! He would be going back to WA on a not much better than average contract, having achieved nothing. A general comment: I'll save my angst until we know 1) he is going and 2) where he is going 3) what the deal is.

The problem with that last night was Geelong had a player in front of the contest facing the marking players and one roughly behind/side of the contest. Time and time again their tall would knock the ball down to the player in front, he got it to the player behind/side, who then turned inward and they were off, usually down the middle and our players had not time to set up the defence and they were often still over near the boundary line where the contest had been. What surprised me is that our coaching box didn't adjust for this tactic, or much else that wasn't working from what I saw.

They pressured us into 'old Melbourne' bad habits: Not lowering the eyes anywhere on the ground. Little composure Picked out opp players, Didn't do the 'good teammate' things. Poor on field leadership Harmes resurrected his fend-off and HTB Viney resurrected his take on the tackler and HTB Overhandballed. Didn't take the first option. We succumbed the same way to Sydney. When they brought the pressure we reverted to the above. Both games at the G. I guess that is our archilles heal: unrelenting opp pressure. We have work to do and banish the 'old Melbourne' bad habits permanently or at least be able to stop them in game when they creep in.

Merge with the Postgame thread, please?

No words. Just beautiful!

Lions will probably get Ashcroft as F/S, touted to go pick 1-5 so will want to ditch their first round pick as Bulldogs and Pies did last year for Darcy and Daicos.

No, no no no!! Whatever I come with will just result in you or others picking holes in it and then we joust for a while and go on a merry-go-round again. I shall decline the invitation, thank you.

1) No one knows what currency will be required. 2) That is not what I said. I said there are various combos of 2022 and 2023 picks with other clubs that could form part of a WCE split of 2022 first round pick.