Lucifers Hero

'Reckless' no longer exists. It is 'careless' or 'deliberate'.

A summary of The Run Home: My thoughts: We have a harder fixture than all others playing teams 2 to 5 and teams 7 and 8. ' We will make top 4 and a very good chance of top 2. Beat Freo, Lions and Blues and we stifle their chances of top 2. Cats will be top 2 🤮 whether we beat them or not. Want to beat them because of their smugness and lack of respect. The team most likely to drop out of the top 4 is Freo. Lions don't look too safe in the top 4 given the way they played last week. Ironically two teams that can make top 4 due to their easy run home are Carlton and Collingwood. If they do, on my reckoning, top 4 first final will be in Melbourne. Win or lose the first final, all our finals could be in Melbourne. Tigers will replace Bulldogs in the final 8 because of their much easier draw. On the assumption of 15 wins for top 4 Tigers are unlikely to make top 4 🙃☺️. 16 wins could be enough for top 2!! %'age will then be significant.

Gleeson makes a case that Stewart should have been referred directly to the Tribunal and no grading scale (careless, severe, high) applied thereby leaving it open to the Tribunal to consider the circumstances stewart-s-strife But the MRO/Football Manager rating leaves it open to the Cats to argue that it wasn't 'severe' based on other cases. Can't see the AFL now arguing it should have been rated 'deliberate.' Showing my cynicism but could it be that the Footy Manager was looking after his twin bro by rating it at all. On a related note, while Stewart was apparently upset at 'letting the team down' and supposedly a real good fellow I haven't seen an apology to Prestia or a reference to Stewart checking he was/is ok.

I'm interested but I've been out all day.

Don't relish ploughing through Scott's press conf/media appearance videos again, tbh...will do my best to find it.

tbh I haven't looked at those charts much as it is but one methodology and no one knows if we are using that methodology. Chris Scott said on AFL 360 that they have chosen the bye for loading which sounds like a 'convenient window' thus suggesting they are not using 'periodisation' charts/methodology. On your last point, I've never doubted that we undertake loading. Just haven't been convinced that it was in rounds 9-10 and that it 'mainly' explains ours losses (Similar thoughts on Freo's and Lion's) pre bye.

Had the umpires stopped play for the 3 minutes it needn't have decided the game. Geelong got a goal in that time while Tigers were a person down. It is a big surprise that the '4th' umpire didn't talk to those on the ground through the headphones to stop the game. Not just for fairness but it was dangerous as play was going on around Prestia and the medicos. Someone must have told the umpires to smarten up as when Baker was hit head high later in the game they stopped play.

A not so small item of interest. The other top 4 sides (Cats, Lions, Freo) play only 1 top 4 side for the rest of the season: The Demons. Win those and we go an extra game up on them. Ditto if we beat Carlton (5th).

Scott says it wasn't deliberate. I don't think he intended to hurt but the action looked deliberate to me: they were a long way from the ball. Stewart at no time looked at or veered toward the ball. Made a beeline for Prestia. Didn't break stride Elected to bump (there wasn't even an option to tackle as they were so far from the ball and Prestia hadn't had possession) At a human level it was sickening to see Prestia's body so contorted when he tried to move and his face so dazed.

Somewhere, Scott says it (loading) is what they do in the middle of the year ie during the bye. Based on that, one would expect any form drop off to be after their bye. He also said he thought the impact of loading on form is overstated. While every club is different his comments make me wonder about all the DL posts that were adamant losses to Freo (rnds 9 and 10), Lions (rnds 10 and 12) and Demons (rnds 11 - 13) were 'mainly' due to loading. All had their byes after those loses, in round 14. Given our fixture, to me it makes more sense that our loading is between rounds 12 and 16 where we have 8, 9, 8 days break between games. After that we have a 5 day break and another 9 day break. Plenty of time to load up and recover over that 6 weeks with minimal affect on results. Intuitively, with this fixture it makes more sense to me that we have several 'smaller' load peaks over rounds 12 -18 tapering towards the end, rather than one huge peak over 2/3 weeks before the bye. Also it doesn't make much sense to me that we would load up players when so many had been ill or injured over rounds 8 to 12. Get them healthy, give them a rest then, load up... Note: number of days break does not include the day of the subsequent game.

That is what I recall hearing altho hadn't seen it written. I interpreted those comments as not having done much (loading) or not 'executed' it very well in recent years and they need to be better. I didn't interpret it as 'go harder'. More like be smarter. It was in that context that I made my original post (below) referring to Byrne's recruitment giving them some 'know how' to get better. I'm still comfortable with that interpretation.

Can't remember which media video I heard him on but recall it being they hadn't been able to do much in recent years. I recall him saying the players had their bye break and were prepared to put in hard training so it sound like the loading was prolonged. Can you refer me his comment that you read? Did he say actually they went 'even harder' this year or is that an assumption? My main point was that having Shannon Byrnes would have given them a bit of IP on the programs used at the dees be the programs be sports science models or computer programs.

I like that. Keep the same team this week then Gawn for Weideman vs Geelong if Max is ready. Then settle the team and our methods over the last month or so ready for finals.

In the press conf Goodwin said going in with a shorter player instead of a tall won't happen every week.

A draw between Cats and Tigers would be nice - makes it a little harder for either feline to make top 4. 😼 Very wary of either team in the top 4 for finals.

Only if we win week 1. Lose it and we could end up with an i/state Prelim. I reckon we have a good chance of winning the forthcoming return games vs Freo and Lions. Optus is our second fortress and we won't be missing 5 of our best next time (I hope). Gabba is 50/50 but our mauling of the Lions this week will cut deep scars and they have only a few months to recover. Like the bulldogs after the GF mauling, I doubt the Lions will. I've been very confident of top 4 all along. I'm quietly confident of top 2. If not I have no angst of playing those teams away.

The best two posts in this thread.

Because neither have good team defence nor a decent back 6/7. Hawks gradually building their defensive assets/methods. Dogs have been weak in those areas for years. Bulldogs will not make the 8!

And its safer late night travel as there is likely to be more people on the train at 10.30pm than 11.00pm. It is only 30 mins but as you say it makes a difference.

Agreed. iirc the higher finishing team gets a say in the time slot of their finals, especially if a reigning premier. It is another advantage of finishing 1 or 2.

Correct, for the first final. From there there are lots of permutations depending on who wins/loses that and other finals. Essentially, finishing 1 or 2 makes it more likely to have a Home prelim.

Scott said something like they hadn't been able to do it the last few years. I'm guessing that is because they didn't have the know how. Shannon Byrnes joining them after our premiership, even tho he was in a development role with us, would have given them the framework/concepts to research and build/modify their training programs and probably gave them a bit of IP learnt from the Master, Darren Burgess.

Anyone know when the date/time for rnd 23 is announced?

By a country mile. I'm still in awe of Viney's game. I was thinking the 'minor' placings re Jackson etc.

We exploited both last night bringing in a short player for a tall and tweaked the way we played. Caught them by surprise. Their system and structures broke down early and they had no way of getting the momentum back. Can't see their depth to quickly overcome the list 'imbalance'.