Demon Dynasty

Most of the ins/outs would be just that (experimenting) apart from injury issues I would think JRS. Its not like they are stellar performers busting their way back in or huge losses if ommitted (eg, Newton/Jones). Its only fair that fringe players be given a decent shot at a career in AFL before the potential axe is swung at season's end. We arent playing finals either so Roos can mix it up for the remainder of the season while no doubt also trying to avoid a major blow out resulting in even less confidence amongst the keepers.

Can u blame us RP? We haven't looked anything like what normal AFL teams look like for nearly a decade with the exception of the odd rare gem here and there (eg, Monday) so when we do look like it at times like that it's all a bit strange O.o Not alone there BB. Me and bro are often turtle necking the big screen to try and work out how we managed that last diabolical F.U! :-O

He's been a rare solid reycled player for us so far BB. The blues really have buggered themselves lately. I can only hope we've finally turned the corner in this regard thx to Roos. Been a long time coming. Now to fill in the rest of the gaps!

Dunn should't be taking the kick ins often unless we are looking to just bomb it for a change up to the regular strats IMO. He lacks the precision kicking skills required at this level to hit lead up or short targets efficiently that's why he often goes the big bomb. Part of the blame for this has to be put on Roos & Co as this has been obvious for many games now. How often do you see the opposition get a quick outlet kick into the pocket as first option from kick ins? Let me tell you it's pretty regular and they dont often miss either. What do we do? We continue with Dunny for pretty much the entire game and its fairly predictable. He'll often kick it to himself, play on and roost it down the line or occasionally bomb it down the middle as a change up or just bomb it out wide without playing on. Old fashioned 80s/90s style footy from back in the day. Not saying we shld never do this or that the other way (short outlet precision kick in to pocket etc) is the only/best method 100% of the time either. But the present strat isnt working well. And if its not working...fix it. Use better kick ins who are more accurate by foot most of the time for a start pls Roosey... eg, Jetta/Watts

The trouble is Ted, our endeavor was there for most of the match, but as soon as the wick is turned up and it gets hot in the kitchen there just always seems to be 2 3 or more players that somehow manage to do the dumbest things when we can least afford it. And some of them arent new to the scene either. So you have to ask, are they actually up to playing solid footy when the pressure is placed on them which is part of the game. I realise experience under match day pressure "should" help. But for some reason we just keep unearthing new ways of deestroying the movement of the air conveyance. Hopefully we get into more of these situations this year so the FD can see who is up to it and who isn't and we trade accordingly. Cant see us winning on a regular basis until the regular offenders are replaced with more reliable/talented performers. Brayshaw is one that brought a smile to my heart on Monday that we have found someone special in this regard. Bring on more Brayshaws please Roos!

Definitely propped!

Thanks Deanox. Please note that "Hard ball gets" are included as part of the contested possession stat. Yes i am in general agreement that more emphasis should be placed on UP differentials as, in the majority of cases, a positive differential is more likely to relate to winning vs CP differentials apparantly. Unless of course as you say, the CP differential blows out and gets extremely ugly (for your team) then you're in trouble even if winning the UP diff but it would need to be consistantly ugly as well (a la us during the MN years!). No argument from me there. But, to know in what general areas we are doing well (eg., inside/outside etc), not so well or just tracking square, you still need to watch both (along with other stats IF meaningful). Focussing solely on UP diff alone would be an unwise move is all i'm saying, as would focussing too much on any one stat differential of course.

THE HAWTHORN EFFECT! I believe it's the Hawthorn factor at play here guys (Note: not an original concept... see extract from The Roar below). Since Hawthorn won the premiership in 2008, and have been quite dominant since with their back to back, other teams (Freeo, Port & to some extent GWS) are at work trying to capture the essence that is the Hawthorn way and of course maybe even better it/tweak it. Using run/spread and precision kicking (through the press off HB and in general around the ground when defensive structures/pressure is working) to lethal effect. Stats can't play football but if used sparingly and carefuly we can utilise them to paint a comparitive picture of what the latest trends in the game are, but more specifically, which teams are able to get their mojo going and changing their game style more towards the latest trending game style. RPFC & Titan are spot on with the UP differential being a strong indicator of who is able to spread, distrubute the ball and maintain possession effectively and efficiently. The more a team can do this the easier it is for them to improve their disposal efficiency as they have more time/space to effect their next disposal. But you still need extractors (clearances/first possession), you still need to pressure, kill the ball/intercept mark, initiate effective presses, etc and force turnovers, especially in critical parts of the ground....then score from them (eg., scoring efficiency%...no point getting the ball inside 50 if horrid in front of goal or even worse hardly having any shots at all with ball rebounding out easily/very few marks i50 etc). So in the end i would be placing more emphasis on UP differentials when seeing how we are progressing vs other teams than contested but we also need to include contested, clearances, pressure acts, intercept marks (Oxley!!) etc into the mix to put together what is a complex tapestry of what is taking place on the field both offensively, defensively and pressure wise. Unfortunately we only have basic (publicly available) stats to do this with as we have no access to things like intercept marks, pressure acts, pressure acts inside 50, "effective" tackles, "effective" tackles inside 50 (Watts on Varcoe & the conversion!). UP differential is a solid stat though and does give us a rough guide as to how well we are progressing, or otherwise, towards getting our boys to play the style of footy that is having solid success right now. Based on this we are miles away from acheiving what the likes of the Dockers and Port have managed in the last 18 months or so and may well be stone motherless last right now. Fast tracking needed big time on our spread, run/carry and ability to share/retain the footy. Many D'landers of course are already well aware of this issue. A very obvious problem foreseen and spoken about for years i realise so apologies for repeating a broken story in advance. Nutbeans post above is a solid contribution towards this side. In addition to what he said about school yard footy under Neeld, I also felt that under MN we not only played that way but it was doubly worse than Nutbean's version!. We would have 2 to 3 players too many, hunting the footy as Nut said, and 2 or 3 others on the outside always sweating on their man, playing from behind and WAITING for their opponent to get the ball first....then trying to suddenly "swoop" in with a quick tackle to hopefully effect yet another stoppage. Unfortunately when you "allow" your opponent first use of the ball and it's a quality opponent (for us that's roughly anyone in the top 12), plus then have that opponent generally beat us on the UP (spread/run & carry, possession etc)....a recipe for a complete disaster (under MN). And it was. I believe Roosey has gone a long way to rectifying this....but.... i still see some of our boys "switch" into "watching their opponent" mode and always playing/sweating on "him" and being reactive from behind, rather than hunting the ball, for certain periods during a game. A hangover and habitual issue from the MN years maybe? Happy to give up front position and given we generally don't spread/run/carry and maintain possession as well as others, well you can guess what the outcome is going to be. To me this is as damaging to us during a match (when it's happening) just as much as the UP/spread/possession side. So in a nutshell we have a fair way to go to improve our run/spread/possession type play AND we sometimes regress into the ugly part of the MN era where some selective players revert back to "man" watching and sweating on their opponent from behind, instead of ball watching while maintaining "touch" on their direct opponent and instinctively going after the ball if it's within their area "first", then recognising that if a fellow player gets his hands on it first or is likely too.... spread quickly to receive. Some are STILL stuck in a time warp here, too fixated and worried about what will happen if they don't sweat on their direct opponent and tackle him IF he happens to get it. I don't believe this happens for an entire match but it is still happening during parts of a match by some. I've included a few interesting articles here that go into aspects of the Uncontested/Contested side of statistics for those interested.... An extract from one of those artciles paints a nice picture of the UP differential vs CP differential argument that RP is highlighting..... Are uncontested possessions becoming more important? Id like to end with a bit of a thought provoker: having a positive UP differential is, increasingly, a marker of success. Check out the below chart, which shows the 200 game moving average winning percentage of teams with a positive CP and positive UP. In economics, this is what we call structural change. Since 2008, the expected winning percentage of teams with a positive UP differential has moved higher by around about five percentage points, while the winning percentage for a positive CP differential have moved lower by around eight percentage points. Are sides finally cottoning on to the notion that ball use is more important than toughness, and the ability to win the ball in contested situations? Perhaps. Id call this The Hawthorn Effect': after Hawthorn won the 2008 flag, largely on the back of elite skills and smart offensive and defensive structures, the ability to possess the ball more often in situations that allow for the execution of skills appears to be having a strong impact on winning percentage. Thats not to say contested possessions arent important but we may be moving further into a new era in the AFL where skills and execution are placed at a premium over the ability to bullock through packs and find a way out with the ball. The full article here.... http://www.theroar.com.au/2014/07/09/missing-tablescontested-possessions-important/ Hawthorn & Freo leading the UP charge (have posted this before but still worth a read for those who may have missed.... http://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-premiership/hawthorn-and-fremantle-success-driven-by-winning-uncontested-possessions/story-e6frf3e3-1227315390602

I hope the players are also imagining us winning Webb

How about the umpire marking the mark ALONGSIDE of H instead of behind him so that when he calls play on he doesn't block H's run at the player playing on lol. H had no chance with the Ump putting such an effective block on the mark!

At this stage im voting Spencil but I reserve the right to change it assuming Gawn is given a good run at it by Roosey over the next 5 to 8 weeks to settle in. From what I've seen so far.... Spencer Positives - Contests well and can win/split "hit outs to adv" against most accept Nic Nat & Sandi but who can? - Can hit a target on the lead and kick occasional goals if given enough time or close enough to split the big ones, tackles & competes well when ball comes to ground and can even rack up his own clearances out of the middle. Some stats to consider.... - No.1 in the tackle averages by a long way! - No.1 in hit outs (averages) just ahead of Jamar. Be nice to have the hit outs to adv here. - No.8 in contested -No.5 in Clearances (Ahead of Crossy & Vanders with Jamar at 8) -No.2 in One percenters only bettered by T-Mac (Jamar at 11) -No.12 in contested marks (Jamar at 6) Stats dont make a player but from what I've seen Spencil might not get as many hit outs to adv as Gawn nor is he likely to be better at marks around the ground but in terms of what he can do when the ball is "live" (eg., extraction from stoppages, hitting up targets by foot, accuracy at goal when within range, tackling when we dont have it) i would back him above Gawn at this point. Happy to give Gawn those 6 to 8 games though (assuming he gives us something reasonable) and review again afterwards. If we are just picking Gawn on his ability to get a few more hit outs to advantage than Spencil...but likely to be just as easily walloped here by the 2 guns in this dept anyway when we come up against them (Nic Nat & Sandi) then I would be pretty worried at this point. And as we've seen, even the best in the business can clock up massive numbers here (Sandi on Friday night had a massive hit out to adv differential against the Toiges) and you can still be soundly beaten.

Its a bit of what BB Stuie and others said. This is not Collingwood circa 2010/2011. Players around H need to recognise when the press hasn't had time to set up properly and run in support. The rebounds at Collingwood must have been super fast back then as there is also a requirement for H to recognise when we need to work our way through a well set up press that's had too much time already and well structured. Hard to play on through that and succeed bery often. But under that scenario we also need to see alot more leads from in front of play both wide and through the middle of the ground. In addition way too many rebounds of ours (from turnovers) start deep in our def 50. Our mids need to pressure more through the middle for more turnovers to start from there. Will score alot more from that position and take the pressure of the backs where there's far too much load for too long during a match. Eventually the numbers will get any defence if you can't force turnovers through the middle or keep it in your halfof the ground for long. Our pressure inside 50 is also not up to most other teams in the AFL bar the bottom 4 to 6 around us.

6. Jones Boy - team record 29 effective disposals. 5. Mr Vince - great job on Pendles, maybe even better than the one he did on Danger. Pendles showed him little respect often choosing to take the fat side inside 50 and paid the price on at least one occasion. 4. Crossy 3. The Toump 2. Brayshaw - impressive game from a 1st year against quality opponent on the big stage! 1. Dunn - Cloke had 4 till quarter time. Take the dodgy free away in the last and the ugly clanger (which happens at this level but always magnified in that part of the ground) and a decent hold IMO. Could have been 10 to Cloke the way he was rolling in the 1st. Apologies to Watts. Apart from the dropped mark in the goal square i thought he played his best game for us in the sense that he finally put his body on the line and head over the ball. Lets hope the monkey's off the back. That tackle on Varco and clutch goal is team lifting stuff and exactly what his critics have been asking to see for years. Was the best off HB at reading and working his way through the press IMO with quality passes by foot. Might be a career defining game for Watts. Fingers crossed.

Hasn't hit some of the heady heights with the Pies but then he is surrounded by players who also dont rank as highly as he had around him there so I dont think you can expect "like for like" form every match playing in this list. I still rate him though. Very highly when played in his traditional position off HB. Not sure he is suited to any mid field focussed role and woildn't rate him as highly when asked to play a role there. The AFL ratings also has him right up there ranked 13 out of approx 120 small/medium defenders (and rising). Approx one quarter of the matches used for that rating have been with the MFC now.]

As much as it pains me to say... mid field depth has been an issue for decades

You must have missed the first round LH

When was the last time we were down and out and got saved by anybody?

Just give me me a moment WYL

thanks fellas

If the entire team lifts on the day then hopefully it wont be down to the usual culprits like Jones to try and get us to a win WYL. Great wins are usually a result of amazing team effort like we saw from the Toiges on Friday night. Premiership football that.

Wise could you hand over your subscription details so I can read this pls... and thx!

Frog Sh $ t as in "Bull" frog I think :-)

Great to see the 3 of them together again. With regard to LJ its only tragic if it ends that way (life or footy wise). I hope he is finally getting his act together. If so I would love the MFC to consider the possibility of a second chance iF he was truly serious about getting back into the big league and he stuck strictly to team rules.

Only just I think Jumbo. Glad you enjoyed although I'm a tad concerned as I'm doing it out of boredom mostly. Hopefully your weekends aren't this boring. In the end they are only stats Jumbo and in some cases not the sort the coaches would bother with too much anyways. Some of them are half decent though like uncontested which might give us keyboard warriors a rough guide as to who is spreading well etc. Tackles not too bad as a rough "pressure act" guide etc. I really wld love to see the juicy stuff from champion though such as "pressure acts", "turnovers inside 50 from pressure acts", "goals from link up play" (I forget what it's called but gives you a guide as to who has the most involvement in passages of play that result in goals eg, Harvey was one of the highest last year being involved in something like a massive 36% of link play that resulted in goals. Coaches love this stuff and is usually highlighted to them by their review crew for up coming match ups etc). Kicking efficiency is another I'd love to see. Anyway we aren't going to get the good stuff so just have to use what we have as a rough guide. RPFC is doing some great work with differentials in uncontested etc at a team level which is a great guide to how we are performing vs the rest of the comp. Not sure if you've taken a look. In the end though you get a much better feel from seeing what's taking place obviously. And as OD would often remind us, at the end of the day the only stat that matters is the scoreboard silly!

Agreed. I have heard some of the past veteran players in the media bandy 60 - 80 games as a rough guide before judging how a new player is rolling. The trouble is though Samael, our list runs very shallow so in many other clubs the depth players or new rookies do their apprenticeship in the VFL for a few years and have to fight like hell before they get a look in at senior level. By then the powers that be have had a fair crack at seeing what type of standard they might be getting as well as years playing the style of game that's needed to break into the seniors under the guide of their VFL affiliate club/coach. I'm not sure we have any such luxuries with our Casey connection or our extremely shallow list. And I suspect it's been this way for as long as the AFL dumped the reserves (for us anyway).