deejammin'

Before watching the VFL today I thought the one obvious change that would be made was Harmes needing to come in to tag Neale. As a fan of Harmesy I’d still be ok for him to get that role but his VFL game today wasn’t great. He got a huge amount of the ball but kept trying to break tackles, take on too much pressure on the handball and bombed most of his kicks. Meanwhile Bowey was excellent, never wastes a kick, was hard at the tackle, had some brilliant spoils and kicked an important goal. It looked like he was pushing forward more today also, so maybe he’s aiming at Spargo’s spot, although maybe the wet weather just had them all pushing up the ground to lock it in. Sadly today also showed me why JVR is being held back. On a tough day for forwards he was well beaten by Plowman and co and despite trying hard it took throwing him into the ruck for him to have any impact on the game. I see a big future for him but on the first defender being pushed hard he was found wanting a bit today. Meanwhile Weid was excellent. Long story short, either Bowey in for Spargo or no change. If we desperately want Harmesy to tag Neale then he comes in, probably for Sparrow.

They’re not anywhere near as good a team when they 50/50 their set shots. Far more normal today, against us they couldn’t miss. Still I wish I could see the alternate universe where Gawny kicked all his set shots against the pies. That would’ve been a very different, very fun night I suspect.

Would Sam Reid be a possibility for our tall forward woes? I can see he signed a one year extension for this year. FA. Any good?

I’ll raise you:

Geez Gulden gets a disproportionate amount of dodgy frees….

This is nothing like the pies team we played last week. Their pressure is way off, they’re missing easy shots, maybe it was Langdon’s spray that go them going? 😭😭😭

Hawks playing Sicily in the midfield allowing Lynch to kick 8…. Nothing to see here, certainly not tanking…. 😳😳😳

I think Goody is cagey because Harmesy is going to play a negating/tagging role on either N Daicos or DeGoey. The MFC website has already declared “Demon Duo to return for pies clash” with pictures and an article about Brown and Harmes. I’ve never seen our website declare someone would play and then they didn’t. Goody also went to great pains to say that Gus would play any role for the team, that tells me he’s back to half back this week. Im sticking with my initial call of In: Brown, Harmes Out: Weid, Hunt despite the facepalms it received.

Ouch! I’d love to take the risk with JVR watching him all year in the VFL he looks like he could explode at AFL level. But it’s a risk. Ben Brown has the runs on the board and if fit was in better form in the Geelong and Port games than Weid has shown. I liked Angus in the guts and think Harmes could play the Melksham role even better than he has the last two weeks but admittedly Melksham has been good, logically he stays in, Hunt, (who wasn’t bad, his speed adds another dimension, but did lose a few contests including stupidly tackling Walters in a marking contest) makes way for Angus back to HB and Harmes back to his usual role. Bowey has been outstanding in the VFL and I’m a fan while Rivers had some good moments but also a few turnovers and shanked kicks. It won’t happen but Rivers for Bowey would warm my heart. I think the logical changes will be the changes, the heart ones are risky and may not pay off but I’d kinda love to see it.

It’s pretty funny. They are our bogey side and I’m always concerned when we play them but the confidence is strange. In the last six weeks Pies have beaten GWS narrowly (11), beaten GC when they should’ve lost (5 points), just beat North when they were losing the majority of the game (7 points), just beat Adelaide (5 points), beat Essendon after the siren (4points) and narrowly beat Port when they easily could’ve lost (6 points). That’s six teams outside they 8 they struggled to beat. Meanwhile we beat two top 4 contenders by 7+ goals each (Brisbane and Freo), Beat Adelaide and Port pretty comfortably, lost to Geelong in Geelong after leading by four goals, lost to Bulldogs narrowly after leading the whole game. On form I’d take ours over theirs, we’ve been in tough games against real contenders or pushing away lower teams, they are scraping to beat the worst teams in it. It saddens me to say it, the pies are a good team, but I’m hoping they’re in for a shock as their form hasn’t been up to it the last 6 and they’ve got away with a lot of ordinary performances against very poor opposition.

Heart says: Out: Weid, Melk, Rivers In: JVR, Harmes, Bowey Head says: Out: Weid, Hunt, In: Brown, Harmes

If we get 75k+ for both the Carlton and Collingwood games we will get our highest average home attendance ever, despite Anzac eve and QB big freeze both being away games. The narrative that Melbourne fans haven’t turned up this year is a myth, we haven’t had the huge upturn in crowds many have hoped for, partly due to COVID, but it has still been one of our best years ever. Even if we only get 40-50k for the next two games, it will still be in our top 4 best attendances ever! Hardly a disaster. https://afltables.com/afl/crowds/melbourne.html oh and I’ll be there, always am.

And now we have to win four in a row to finish top two. Missing top four is massively on the cards. Gawny’s “missed a chance” is understatement of the year. We’re in huge trouble now.

Beat the dogs then Freo and 2 could be enough if the dogs beat Freo round 21. Obviously we’d all prefer to win our next five but if we beat the dogs this week top 4 becomes possible with as little as two wins and top two with as little as 3. Let’s start with a win tonight.

Just win Dees. Gawn Jackson, Salem, May to regain top form.

Outstanding!

There’s still the potential to get pick one if a rejuvenated North wins a game and goes past them. That’s an incentive. Edit: particularly if North get a priority pick and push WC to pick 3.

I think our situation is different to West Coast in that we were a FAR worse team than WC is now. They have to try harder to lose, the thing that always frustrated me about the MFC tanking debate was people talk as if that team was going to win multiple games if we played differently, no way, at most it was one game. I was at all those games, we couldn’t have beaten anyone most of the time, we were genuinely horrific. West Coast on the other hand have multiple premiership players and AA players being played out of position or rested and no fine at all. This WC team is capable of shaking things up if they genuinely try for the next five weeks, but they won’t, as they have flagged, they’ll call it ‘experimentation’ but it’s tanking. And it’s far worse than what MFC did, we were a terrible team that had been down for a very long time trying to get extra help, they are a team that’s been up forever trying to stock up on top end talent quick and then all of a sudden fly back up the ladder. Just like the pies did for Daisy and co.

May has had at least 5 out on the full since his return, also the shocking turnover where he missed Bowey 15m away that led to the goal against Brisbane. He’s not been terrible, but by his lofty standards his kicking and poise are well off. He needs to get that back. Jackson needs to lift also, hasn’t been taking marks since his return.

I think our best is the best in it. At the moment Geelong are the team to beat, but they’re running at their absolute peak, Danger is back, Selwood is playing well, Stanley is playing great footy, Blitsalvs also, De Koenig + Stengel are a revelation etc. all that is fine. Can they sustain it? When will the spate of calf injuries hit? Even their best is not as good as our best. We have the most upside of any team in the comp. Atm Max and Luke have been out of the team/off their best form for weeks. Max’s last best form game was Sydney, Luke Brisbane, if both hit their straps again, look out! They got towelled up by Stanley against Geelong, I’m betting that won’t happen again. Salem is building but well off his best, his kicking is just not back to its best yet, the grubber to Lever this week is the prime example, if he gets back to his best look out! May also, he’s missing more kicks than usual and is taking less marks. Lever showed what he is capable of against Brisbane and if he brings that in finals we’ll smash it. Trac has built back to near his best the last few weeks but there’s more to go, Clayton was down against Geelong but he’ll be back, Viney has been ok but needs to stop bombing right footed kicks straight up in the air. Kozzie just got back into his best form for the first time this year. Frittata is showing glimpses but has more. Brown lifted for Geelong and was ok against Port but needs to kick straighter. Langdon is building back to his best but has been a little off the last few weeks, by his own admission. Our role players ANB, Spargo, Bedford, Sparrow, Harmes, Hibberd have all shown glimpses but can offer far more. In fact I would argue only Brayshaw and Jordon have consistently played their best over the past month. That’s a huge upside for a team that is 13-4 sitting in second. I’m hoping we get it all clicking again and smash these last five rounds, but even if we don’t, what is effectively a home final against Geelong at the G, or, less likely but possible, Collingwood or Carlton doesn’t scare me at all. 3rd or 4th playing a Melbourne team is fine, even playing interstate I believe we can beat anyone at our best, but I want to be there! If we win the next two top four is assured and from there I would dare anyone to count the Dees out in the finals, no matter what happens the last three games. Our best is THE BEST we just need to bring it.

I think if Weid can’t get back in the team while TMac is out and JVR is being developed this year he’s probably either going to request a trade or move to another position. If LJ goes our list is light on for talls who can ruck so I don’t think we’d want to lose him, but he’ll be behind JVR for a forward spot and would need to work hard to perfect that second ruck/forward spot (that interestingly Gawny said was his best position on Gus and Gawny last week). I don’t think his time is up, we still need talls, but with a sore Ben Brown with Petty as his competition and no TMac he’s not going to get much better opportunities and he’ll need to show something better than he has over the next run of weeks. If Lever is out Petty needs to play back though so Sam might get another shot.

If Petty comes in for Lever he probably won’t be thrown forward. We’d be too light on for tall backs, especially with Naughton, Bruce and English down there. If Lever is good to go then Petty and Clarry could come in for Melksham and Bedford with Petty to play forward, Clarry to the middle and Sparrow back to more HF.

Great info thanks! I seem to recall Petty being a bit of a shining light as a forward in 2019 when everything was going pear shaped? His goal kicking let him down a bit but he showed a lot that year. EDIT: Had a look at the stats Harry played 10 games, mainly as a forward in 2019. He took 43 marks and kicked 6 goals 5 behinds. Not great, not bad, he’s a much better more confident player now, it would be interesting.

Sorry I got this slightly wrong, I have a Melksham out for Clarry, Tomlinson out for Petty. But you might be right Bedford might come out for Clarry. Statistically though they’re actually very similar Melk 6 disposals, Bedford 5, Melksham 18 pressure acts, Bedford 17. Melksham laid 5 more tackles, had two more score involvements (4-2) and kicked a goal. So on that one game he stays in, however I think Bedford has more upside based on his last few games so it might be a close call. Maybe if we decide to go taller and bring in a JVR or Weid both will miss? With Maxy and Dogga both down on contested marking atm maybe this will happen? You’re right about Spargo, my initial impression after the game was that his disposal was well off and his pressure was lacking. But watching it again and looking at the stats I’m wrong, he had a few misses by foot and only laid one tackle, which is low for him, but overall he played a solid game, he’s ahead of Bedford and Melk.

Who’s spot do you see him taking though? I’m excited to see the kid but coming into the year he was called a wing/mid. Ed Langdon is close to our most valuable player at his best and James Jordon has arguably been our most consistent player this year. He’s not replacing either of them. I’m excited to see Howes, and if he debuts he will have earned it with our list, but I’d think it’s unlikely, Woey has put together some pretty strong performance over the year, Laurie is super close, Chandler also, Dunstan, Melksham, Bedford, there’s a few that have runs on the board for the year that’d be ahead of him. I hope he gets some development into him, plays out an undefeated Casey season with a flag and comes into pre-season gunning for the seniors. The injuries or drop in form that would be required for him to play round 22 would also worry me. I hope our 22 gets back to its best footy and stays relatively settled the rest of the season, with Oliver and Petty in for Melk and Tomlinson and no other changes this week we’re as close to our best 22 as we’ve been all season. The only wildcard is TMac.