deejammin'

I’m not usually one for speculation on these things but Gus’s answers in the fight MND presser today were a little strange. Petracca and Gawn for example came out and said “I’m Melbourne I’m staying” before their contracts were negotiated. Whereas Gus clearly loves the club, his teammates and the significance of their achievements and success but he was relatively cagey. I think his manager has told him not to say anything so they can get him the best deal, but he is staying. It felt like he wanted to say “I’m staying” as he was almost laughing at the questions but knows he shouldn’t. At least I hope that’s what the slightly weird vibe was..

Hi, I think what has happened is that initially when H came out with these claims publicly in 2017 the club, Bucks, Eddy etc tried to play it down, said it wasn’t a big deal and denied several of his claims. The only footage of the first press conference with Bucks is here excuse the inflammatory title it’s the only version I could find: As you can see in the video Buck’s denies knowledge of the nickname, which he later admitted he had heard but thought H was ok with, smirks and consistently implies that H isn’t ok by saying he hopes he’s ok, attempting to play down H claim as implying he’s not well. He doesn’t engage on the “threw him under the bus” comment in this conference but in a subsequent one the same month of the year of this video he denied ever saying it/played down what it was even if he had said it. The point is clearly H showed the club that he had proof of the nickname, the conversation and other incidents including as part of the do better report. The issue is that every time the CFC has denied, then attempted to paint Lumumba as an antagonist, then admitted it but said it wasn’t a big deal, then said it was a big deal and apologised, then been upset that Lumumba didn’t see it as a genuine apology given they only did it when he dragged them to it through proof. The reason he’s leaking it now is because the do better process fell apart with him, Krakeour and Davis and the only way to make CFC admit what they need to get better is to once again prove he’s not lying. Theres a pattern here. Step one, deny racism: ”what that 13 yo girl said to Adam Goodes isn’t racist” “ they’re not booing him because of racism” “ the nickname wasn’t racist, he was cool with it” “Eddy was joking about a musical, not being racist” “Kennett wasn’t being racist he was making fun of her pants” “everyone’s mean on the internet it’s not unique to racism” Step two, admit racism but minimise it: ”yeah what the girl said was racist but he she’s 13 what does she know” “ some people are but not all of them are booing him cause they’re racist” “ yeah it was a racist nickname but they didn’t mean it like that” “it was a bad joke but Eddy’s not racist he made a mistake” “ it was a bad joke from Kennett buts it’s been blown out of all proportion” “I mean it’s gross but there’s far worse insults and language on the internet” Step 3 assassinate the victims character: ”yeah it was bad but what kind of man points out a 13 year old girl, Adam Goodes is arrogant” “ he did a war dance when they wouldn’t stop booing him, what did he expect, he should be grateful to the AFL” “ Lumumba is a lunatic on a crusade, he’s a terrible bloke and makes grandiose speeches, he’s just an attention seeker and probably just wants money, he should be grateful to CFC” “Cyril is clearly having a hard time, he’s on the outs with his family, he’s in a bad place and just lashing out” “Eddie’s an attention seeker, he does media and DJing, you put yourself in the spotlight you gotta take it” Step 4 paint the perpetrator as the victim: ”Adam Goodes ruined this girls life!” “Adam Goodes and Lumumba ruined Bucks and Eddie’s careers! They made mistakes but overall they’re good blokes, they didn’t deserve this” “Cyril is trying to bring down strong successful leaders of a great football club” “Eddie’s trying to guilt the fans for being passionate” Step 5 apologise, then immediately expect the victim to be cool with it, if they refuse or seek change, say they will never be happy with anything and are totally unreasonable then…. Step 6 restore the status quo until next time. You watch, the next indigenous player to have a hard time will go through this again. It happens every time and this is the exact culture and cycle that needs to be broken.

I don’t think having a chequered past seems to be an issue with having an AFL media career, Wayne Carey, Jabs Watson, Sam Newman, Matt Rendell, Eddie Maguire, Fev, Dane Swan the list goes on… Bucks gets an entire radio and tv platform to tell his side of the story and will continue to do so, his employers are probably loving this as it’s making more stories for them. It’s interesting that so many instantly see Bucks as the victim atm but for so many years people ignored, defamed and discredited Lumumba and others when they made legitimate claims. Bucks flat out denied the ‘threw him under the bus’ comment at his first press conference on it in 2017, but now he’s a victim when it’s proven. Strange double-standards at work here, or are there…

I actually think the fact he doesn’t seem to have a problem with MFC brings more credence to his CFC claims. He praised Melbourne’s culture, Matty Whelan’s work and spoke glowingly of Nathan Jones’s empathy, ability to listen and support during the Adam Goodes saga. It is Collingwood that wants to paint this as one man’s crusade, but it’s HL, Krakeour, Davis, McCaffer, Shae McNamara and an entire ‘do better’ report. H is a different guy and certainly a lot of people don’t like him but I think that needs to be kept seperate from major cultural issues at CFC and in the AFL community generally which clearly were not at an acceptable standard and has had considerable fall out for people’s lives. The fact H doesn’t seem to be going MFC and his grievance is with CFC makes it seem less like someone on a crusade against everyone and more like someone who has had a horrible experience and wants accountability. As for the recordings, in most performance industries the first thing an industrial relations lawyer will tell you to do is bring a union rep or record any meetings that could be about sensitive cultural issues, contracts or where there is potential backlash for speaking openly. It’s not an invasion of privacy, it’s a workplace and employees are entitled to protection from misconduct. Usually you would ask to record any meetings, I’m not sure if H did, but Buckley should’ve been made aware, by his own HR department, to be careful in meetings anyway.

The equation is pretty simple. Both Brisbane and Freo have already played both WC and North. We need two wins to make up more than 4.7 percentage points to enter round 11 at least a game + percentage clear of our opponents. Two 40+ wins where we hold the opposition to a low score will do that comfortably. Any more is a bonus. No change to the team.

Port will beat them, twice, GCS a sneaky chance also.

I’d say it was turning up to his first pre-season unfit and out of shape, as he himself has admitted, the beer was a stupid beat up, but Maysie let himself down that first year.

LMFAO!! Wow, Robbos football knowledge knows no depths. So only one attacking mid at any stoppage, with Viney, Sparrow and Harmes for company. Only one attacking wing and you’re playing the best Defense in the comp. Yeah, Melbourne would be really scared, not to mention our ruck’s ability to get clearance themselves, and Trac and Clarry’s ability to break tackles and get the ball out from contested situations to our advantage. I hope a team tries this.

The bulldogs piled on 8 goals in a row round one mainly in a burst at the start of the second quarter, that’s the most recent I can remember, 7 in a row in the Granny too since the Geelong game. We’re playing brilliant football, I feel confident the whole way through. Still haven’t been behind in a last quarter this year. Loving it!!

And just like that Hawthorn have won one of their past 6 games. Pretenders. Were Essendon good or were Hawthorn just that bad? I know my answer.

Yep, I hadn’t realised both games were basically at the same time. Dumb stuff from the AFL, put the VFL game a couple of hours after the AFL game and not only can fans watch both but subs and emergency players could play! Argh! The AFL make the easy so hard sometimes. Is there some super important event at Casey at 4 that stops them from playing then?!

Agree 100%. But should the Saints lose you can guarantee it will get trotted out by the media.

Well, stats wise actually they’re both pretty poor on marking. I think that’s your perception but the stats don’t actually bear that out. Here’s the facts: TMac averages: 3.8 Marks 1.7 inside 50 .8 contested .7 marks on a lead .2 intercept Weid: 3.2 Marks 1.6 inside 50 1.4 contested .2 Marks on a lead 0 intercept As you can see Tom takes a fraction more marks, which are mainly on a lead or behind the ball, he is below average on contested marks. Sam takes less marks on a lead and hasn’t played backline to take intercept marks but is average for contested marks and well ahead of Tom on that stat. Overall I don’t think it’s marking that is separating them, I’m sure the FD would like both players to mark the ball more and drag their stats to average or above average for marking but atm Weideman is the only one with an average marking stat (contested). The difference is pressure.

Impossible to tell from that game. North were as bad as it gets. Freo actually turned the ball over a lot in positions where North should’ve scored but North were just so bad it’s impossible to tell. Freo are on track to play finals. We’ll see whether they’re top four material in the next month when they play GC, Pies, Us and Brisbane. All I got out of this game was that I hope North play that badly against us in round 10. The percentage would be great!

That’s a super strong side. That forward line is too good for VFL, particularly if Bedford floats through there. Still no Woewodin though, was his head knock still causing concussion issues? It looked nasty at the time. I don’t recall hearing him listed in our injury report? EDIT: My mistake Woewodin is listed as one week for concussion on the injury list. Hope he’s recovering well.

I think stats wise the key point of difference between Tom and Sam is their defensive effort. Tom averages 1 tackle (below average), .8 inside 50 tackles (average) and 11.2 Pressure acts (above average). Sam 1.2 tackles (below average), .4 inside 50 tackles (below average), 5.4 pressure acts (below average). Tom is not setting the world on fire defensively, but Sam is barely registering any pressure at all. It’s visible in how he plays sadly, once he misses the mark or lead he’s out of the play. Both of them need to do work on their intensity and pressure around the ball and I’d suggest this will be Sam’s main area to concentrate on back in the VFL. Hopefully Sam can lift as he’s actually a very good tackler, but at the moment Tom is doing more of the defensive bullocking work and that’s why he’s back in.

I think we’d be encouraging Majak to stay on. He’s been in great form at VFL level and good back-up ruckman don’t grow on trees, it’s the one weakness on our list, ideally we’d have two back up pure ruckman, right now we have Majak and Weideman who’s clearly more of a forward. Hibbo and Melk might retire, some fringe players might seek more opportunities. I hope we can keep Brayshaw and Jacko, they’re super important.

Port, Freo, Tigers, Swans, GWS, Essendon, Brisbane, Melbourne, Adelaide. I suck at tipping though, tend to let MFC’s best interests and my hatred of teams guide me, not wise.

I personally am loving the commentary this week, it’s just enough to annoy the boys into flogging the Saints. Our forward line pressure was down against Hawthorn mainly due to the absence of ANB and Kozzie. ANB is averaging 5.2 tackles and 23.8 pressure acts (Elite) a game in 2022, the highest on our list, Kozzie Pickett 3.2 tackles 20.7 pressure acts (also elite) a game. Bedford and Melksham had a combined 6 tackles and 32 pressure acts that’s not bad but it’s -2.4 and -13.6 on what we get usually. For us it’s huge drop in pressure up front, which allowed Hawthorn to more easily transition the ball. And that’s just two players! Jackson is also more mobile and commits more pressure acts than both Weideman and TMac (Jackson is good for tackles, elite for inside 50 tackles and above average for pressure acts, Tom Mac is closer but both he and Weid are down against Jackson). Front half pressure is a huge part of our game and it was down against the Hawks, and we still won, and were never behind in the second half and always had at least a two goal buffer, that’s an easy kill. As many have noted it appears we win the game and then shelve the attacking stuff in the last quarter, our last quarter scores are down on last year yet we have never been behind in a last quarter this year, that’s a significant stat. If the opposition never have you in fear of losing, preserving players, playing defensively and shutting the game down is fine, it doesn’t mean we can’t annihilate a team but coming off a shorter pre-season, missing key personnel and knowing every week teams are trying to get us, we’re not wasting energy on a percentage we won’t need if we keep winning. Also I really love the “Melbourne hasn’t beaten anyone” commentary, we’re the REIGNING PREMIERS! We’ve beaten almost everyone! In fact we currently have the unique stat of having beaten every team in the AFL the last time we played them, except Collingwood. It’s a long way off but should we keep this streak going to after QB we will be the only team in the modern AFL era to have a winning record against every team in the league!!! I hope the media and their desperate, disrespectful narrative attempts to make Melbourne seem vulnerable filter back to the club and spur them on to smash the saints, that’s all it’s good for. Regardless of what happens this weekend the worst we will be heading into round 11 is 9-1, every other team in the league would envy that, that’s the stat that matters. It sets us up to get ready for the real stuff in September, the rest is noise, long may it continue!

Agree to disagree I guess. I see them finishing 10-12 this year and staying outside the 8 next year. What do you reckon?

I’m not so convinced, sure the Hawks appear better than last year (although they won most of their last 5 games with Clarko) but in terms of long term success Mitchell is still relying heavily on an older core of players that are on the way down, the following are carrying them atm and will not be part of their next flag imo: McEvoy(32), Breust (32), Gunston (30), Shiel (32), T Mitchell (29), J O’Meara (28), Impey (28), Wingard (28), Frost (27). These players (with the exception of an injured McEvoy) are all playing close to the Hawks best players to carry the Hawks back to competitive footy. They are not the Hawks future, to the extent Mitchell tried to trade a few of them last trade period and I predict their form will slump this year or injuries will get them, hurtling the Hawks back down for more pain, with less quality draft picks due to the improved performance from this older brigade. It might be wishful thinking but I think Mitchell and the Hawks are in for more pain, the great pretenders!

Love the rebrand! Jumpers nice, not my favourite but good, prefer the short sleeves.

Sure, I guess I don’t see the current top 8 as my end of season top 8. I think the Dogs, Tigers, Giants and even the Power will push to get back in. Pies and Carlton are vulnerable to missing. St Kilda and Geelong will have down periods where they drop away from top 4. Geelong in particular look vulnerable to quick teams, they play GWS, Saints, WB, Port and Adelaide in the next five. We’ll learn a lot about them after that month, despite only 1 opponent in the top 8. I suspect they lose 3, possibly 4, though maybe it’s wishful thinking. I haven’t seen enough Freo to know, but it’s worth remembering they were 6th at this time last year, only to drop 5 spots by years end. Brisbane and Sydney are the real deal, home final will be huge. We need to lock away top 2. I’m hoping we make it to 10-0 with a huge percentage before a very nasty run of games. You may be right, but we’ll see. I see a very close year ahead.

Yep, wins will be like gold this year, the reality is with the exceptions of WC and North every other team is capable on their day. Dogs, GWS, Port, Pies, Hawks, GC, even Essendon, on their day they will win games. We’ve banked 7, keep going and lock away finals ASAP. Then sit back and watch all the other teams tear each other apart. Freo, St Kilda, Carlton are all capable of good footy, but they are also young and will have lapses this year, all teams will, the further in front we get on the ladder the more chance we have to rest players, up training loads for finals and weather covid storms like this week. The AFL media love the week to week stories but the truth is, we are probably 3 wins from locking away finals, 5-6 from locking away top 4 and 8 away from locking away top 2. We’re in the box seat and just need to keep winning.

Undefeated! Nice! Need some mids back for Casey. Hopefully Taj is better, two of Dunstan, Melksham, Bedford, Sparrow and Jordan to join Casey next week health allowing.