deejammin'

Free kicks don’t win games of football, everything evens out etc. But this dogs thing is an established trend. Over the last ten years before 2019 the dogs were consistently in the top three in the AFL for frees for and differential. The other two were West Coast and Geelong, teams with strong home crowd advantages, large supporter groups, ‘noise of affirmation’ and clear reasons for the advantage. The dogs have none of those. This all went to a whole other level the last two years, they had an average differential of +7 on all other teams in 2021! That’s 7 extra contested marks a game! They get more frees for than the next team (Geelong) by a factor of 6! And give away less by a factor of 4! For what reason? The dogs have no home ground advantage, no Selwood, no clear reason to be so well treated for over a decade. The nice guys thing is just weird. At what point does the AFL look into why one team gets so much better treatment than every other team? It’s pretty weird right?

It would be 2021- MEL 2022- MEL The rest of the list is less interesting.. 👹👹👹

Brown in Weideman out TMac seems to play a role the FD likes, he doesn’t tear games apart or kick loads of goals but his run, contest and pressure seems to make him valuable. He’s also shown a bonus in the early part of this year in that he can swing back. Weid is unlucky, but he plays the same role as BB who is more consistent. I agree Riv looks sore but with 9 days off hopefully he’ll be feeling better.

Since 2001 only 6 out of 22 reigning premiers have started 4-0 (including us): Melbourne 4-0 2022* Hawthorn 4-0 2014 Collingwood 6-0 2011 Geelong 8-0 2008 West coast 6-0 2007 Brisbane 4-0 2002 If we win next week we join only 3 other premiership teams beyond 4-0 Collingwood 6-0 2011 Geelong 8-0 2008 West coast 6-0 2007 Ominously none of those teams won premierships, two made the GF one the SF (WC 2007). Nonetheless we’re in extremely rare air! For all the upset around how we’re playing in the post-game thread it’s worth remembering premierships are rarely won by teams flying in the first 6 rounds, what we did last year is an anomaly. You can’t win a premiership in the first four, but you can lose your shot at it (see Port, Essendon and co). Lets track this record, hopefully we join rare air next week at 5-0 and then we can try to tick off towards the modern record of 8-0 (from a cats team most consider one of the greatest of all time!). Incredible work from our Dees!!!

Great post. i think we clearly work very hard to make our defensive system work, but resting Ed Langdon the last 7 minutes when he usually plays 100% game time, playing Lever for 89% of the match when he also usually plays 95%+ (injury not withstanding), playing both May and Rivers less than 95%, we rested players we never rest. Also, doing nothing to break Trac’s tag, playing safe down the line for most of the last quarter when the game was done. That certainly wasn’t top gear, it’s not disrespectful to our defence, they were excellent, but even they got a rest they don’t get when we’re going for it. There were many things our side could’ve done to ratchet up the game but we chose to take a five goal win with no injuries in the last quarter coming off two 6 day breaks rather than going for broke. I’d call that second gear, sorry.

They’ll lose tonight..Chris Scott to collect Lachie Neale at quarter time. 🤪🤪

Clinical win. It’s a strange feeling after so many years of having to play our best or better to merely win a game to watch us win so comprehensively in second gear. The last Premiership team to go 4-0 to start a season was Hawthorn in 2014, ominous. Win next week and we’ve bettered them, haven’t gone back far enough to find the last premiership team to back up with 5-0. It can’t be underestimated how difficult it is for premiership teams to come back and win after a short break, what we’re doing is remarkable! Sure it’s ugly, we handball our way into trouble and our forward connection needs work, but we’re winning, without our FF, craftiest HB and with a few players looking underdone. Also, like last year, we’ve never been behind in the last quarter, hard to beat us without getting in front when it matters….Just keep winning, save the beautiful stuff for our next finals campaign. Bring on an AFLW Premiership and 5-0!!!! Edit: (I found it, Collingwood went 6-0 to start their 2011 season, that’s our next benchmark).

Mods, close this thread. 25 disposals, 33 Hit outs, 12 Marks, 2 Tackles, 1 goal 1 behind, 13kms run. Star.

Realistically as sad as it is for Salo to be on the sidelines rounds 12-15 is when we need him back for and firing. It’s been a great effort from our backs to play so well so far. With some key troops back over the next three weeks in Lever, Petty and eventually Hibbo (who may struggle to get back in if Smith, Hunt and Tomlinson keep improving) we’re in pretty good shape. Let’s keep the rest healthy and keep winning!

Hard to be anything other than happy with our off-season, feels like Xmas has come early for Demonlanders. Not only did we take the players most mentioned on here as the best options for our picks, (JVR and Howes) but we got both Woey and AMW with AMW coming as a B rookie, the only way we were going to get him after taking 4 other players. Just brilliant list management, and we got more picks to trade or trade up again next year!!! Wow! We also nailed it on need: KP tall JVR tick Quality Midfield depth Dunstan tick Also able to play wing, tick with Howes and Taj Quick developing small forward/wing with great skills AMW tick Lockdown defender Judd McVee tick The final piece is a train on raw ruckman as a category B rookie or in the mid-season draft. It’s really hard to be anything other than impressed this year. Exciting times!!!

Looks like the author reads Demonland, both the Neale Daniher quote and the height have been corrected as noted here, “more” instead of “less” and 6’10. Good work team!!!

Fair enough, I largely agree, Hawthorn were certainly far less of a surprise than the dogs but I do think they were thinking their flag window was 2010ish and remember many officials from the club saying they were surprised to win one in 2008. Geelong being so dominant and such a shoe-in for a flag certainly masked Hawthorn’s very good season. They definitely dropped away badly, but I think there was enough change in their list to see it as different to ours, our GF team can literally walk unchanged into round 1 2022, Hawthorns couldn’t, hopefully that helps. It’s hard to see who the flag contenders next year are for sure, but I’m not sure if that’s due to a lack of them, or a general evenness to the competition. On form we’re far and away the best team, but Dogs, Brisbane, Richmond‘s best is very very good. We’ll need to improve to win the flag, but we’ll start favourites. Exciting!

Firstly, a ‘premiership hangover’ is not making the finals, or being in serious contention in finals, the year after a premiership. Collingwood did not have a flag hangover in 2011, they made the grand final, a grand final they were favourites for, and while hindsight is 20/20 it would’ve been fascinating to see that game play out had it not have had the cloud of the mishandled Buckley handover hanging over it. A one year contract extension for Malthouse before those finals and I think Collingwood win. Bulldogs and Hawthorn did both drop away after their flag years. What do they have in common: 1. They were both surprised, neither were the best team all year, Hawthorn was a young up and coming team that surprised an all conquering and dominant Geelong team at the right time. The Bulldogs were far from the best team during the season, not even top four, got on a run and managed to peak at the right time. 2. Won before they internally expected to. The equivalent for us would’ve been winning in 2018. 3. Relied heavily on a few stars, for Hawthorn Franklin, Roughead, Hodge, Lewis, Mitchell, Crawford and Dew (in the GF) were all huge, for the dogs Stringer, Jj, Bont, Dahlhaus and Easton-wood were massive. It took a few more years for Clarkson to craft the system that won them 3 more flags and Crawford and Dew retired leaving holes in the list and the dogs were found wanting when JJ, Dahlhaus and Stringer had fluctuations in form. The challenge for us is that the league is far tighter than it was back then. You can realistically make an argument for at least 12 teams making the finals next year (Melbourne, Dogs, Brisbane, Cats, Power, Sydney, Giants, Essendon, Richmond, West Coast, St Kilda, Carlton) whereas in 2009 and 17 there were really only 6 legitimate challengers. In terms of a hangover, the good news for us is of the last 21 flags only two teams haven’t made the finals the following year and we are very different to them. We were the best team all year, we lost 4 games by an average of 11.5 points, that’s frighteningly good consistency. We have a great system, star players but also great role players, some great leaders and a lot of younger players looking to improve not to mention a plethora of talent trying to fight their way into the team. We have also been building for a while, we definitely underperformed in 2020, we were ready for finals but our consistency let us down, you could also make the same argument for 2017. Now that our consistency in season is better (our only weakness is still bringing our best for bottom teams) I’d be stunned if we’re not top 4 heading into finals next year. And we’ve shown our brand stacks up in finals, we’re 5-1 in finals under Goodwin, pretty damn good.

Excitingly, the reality is there is serious competition for spots on almost every line, in fact I’d say we only have 10 guaranteed locked in players and beyond that every player has someone talented gunning for their spot. I’m not saying the others will lose their spots, I’d back in our premiership side to keep them if they all continue to work hard and improve, but even slight laziness will lose most of our players their spot to someone hungry. UNDROPPABLE: Gawn, Petracca, Oliver, Langdon, Salem, Lever, May, Pickett, Brayshaw, Jackson Competition: Viney, Harmes, Sparrow vs Jordan, Dunstan, Hibberd, Rivers, Bowey vs Hunt, JSmith, Petty vs Tomlinson Brown, McDonald vs Weideman Spargo, ANB vs Melksham, Chandler, Bedford, Laurie The only position we have no genuine contender, only backup, is ruck, but that’s partly because Gawny is one of, if not the, greatest ruckman of the modern era and Jackson is a freak. Daw would be pushing for selection at many other clubs. Exciting times. In terms of the article I would have Hunt, Tomlinson, Dunstan and Jordan all needing equally as big pre-seasons as Weid. There’s no doubt Sam has a chance to bust into the team, one of my main frustrations of not watching the finals live is that I’m not entirely sure what role TMac was playing in the finals, it felt like he had less impact than earlier in the season, but Brown and Fritsch were able to dominate so it’s possible he was playing a decoy role. Sammy might be gunning for that. My real feeling is that Hunt, Tomlinson, Jordan and Dunstan have more chance of breaking into the team in the pre-season than Sam. Both Brown and McDonald had interrupted pre-seasons last year, Brown through injury and TMac through training early on a wing, if both have good pre-seasons the mix of added fitness, time together, cohesion and confidence should see them improving on last year, a scary thought, but bad for Sam’s prospects. Hard to see us slipping with that many blokes gunning for each others spots.

Yeah, it’s interesting isn’t it? Maybe it’s about him having backloaded the contract and being on Rookie money this year with the bulk of his new contract in 2023 when he’s upgraded to the senior list? From a list spots perspective it’s largely academic 3-4 main list + 0-1 A rookie vs 2-3 main list + 0-2 A rookies. There seems to be some clever rookie contract money at play otherwise I’d have thought he would be elevated this year. I’d imagine if we have any long term injuries or intend to pick someone up in the mid season draft he may be elevated during 2022 like JJ was this year. The only other really strong reason to keep him on the rookie list this year would be if we intend to use all 4 draft picks or Delisted FA for main list spots, which would be exciting.

Right, thanks for that, I forgot about the discount we get on points for an NGA hence why I thought we’d chew up all three of our picks. On upgrading rookies though, so you don’t need to use a pick to do it but it counts towards your mandatory 3 picks in the draft? From the AFL details on rookies for 2022: ”Meanwhile, clubs have been told they will have to again select a minimum of three players at the NAB AFL Draft after last year only needing to take one because of list reductions. The three live picks can include promoted rookies (before or after the national draft), national draft picks and pre-season draft selections.” Thats new, but good, I was wondering where all those old picks in the 100s had disappeared to.

I’m not so sure about that, if he slides to pick 21(23) and Freo bid on him it will cost us all three of our picks 37, 49 and 57 (94 is worthless) giving us worthless picks back in the last round which we could use to upgrade Jordan and Chandler, we then would be extremely unlikely have enough picks to bid for Woey even if he goes in the 60s. So the choice would most likely be (I acknowledge we could manoeuvre with pick trades but right now): Draft Andrew at 17, draft another two players at 37 and 49 and use 57 to bid on Woey upgrade Jordan with 94 and if we are planning to find another worthless late pick to upgrade Chandler. OR Take a player at pick 17, burn 37, 49 and 57 bidding for Andrew and then use late picks to upgrade Jordan and Chandler missing out on Woey. The question is, is taking a player at 17 and hoping to bid on Andrew worth more than 3 other players, including Woewodin who it is rumoured we have made a commitment to? If Andrew is there at 17(19) I think we will take him. It’s also possible we only intend on drafting three players in which case pick 57 won’t be used.

Number 22 is vacant with Vanders leaving, maybe it’s fate?

Brilliant Premiers! Thank you!!

I have it a little differently again as I think Chandler with his 2 year contract and money slightly above the top rookie contract will also come onto the main list so after Chandler and Jordan elevated: Primary: 34 Rookie A: 4 Rookie B: 0 So 4 new players to come onto either only the main list or a combo of main and Rookie A and potentially 2 additional category B rookies. Maximum 6 new ‘welcome to demonlands’ to come. Fun times.

Also with 7 members of our GF best 22 under 22, and many more in the 22-28 year old sweet spot I don’t think our age profile will worry us as much as other teams. We can go for it the next two years largely with the team we have and then see what’s around if our stars start retiring. As long as we’re bringing in two quality kids a year we’ll be fine. I also agree that for Jason Taylor it’s a great position as he can go best available at every pick. Nice spot to be in.

Yes and no. Gawn is contracted until 2025. We’d be hoping he plays well for at least the next 2-3 years. B Brown and McDonald contracted til 2024 ditto May 2023 We’d be planning to have these guys in our best 22 for at least the next two years with the other younger guys pushing them for spots. Two of them were all Australian this year and the other two had their best year in ages, they’re hardly on the edge of the cliff and even then, with the exception of Gawn, there’s competition for their spots. I agree we need to start developing young KP players and Rucks but I think it will be split over the next two- three years and with next years draft largely touted as tall heavy I doubt we’ll take more than one KP this year (unless there’s someone there Jason Taylor really rates of course and I’d always back him in). We are also light for mids when compared with other lists. Here it is (don’t jump down my throat if there’s a few players you think aren’t mids, it’s who champion data lists as mids from each list): Melbourne now: Trac, Clarry, Viney, Harmes, Sparrow, Langdon, Brayshaw, Jordan, Dunstan, Laurie, Baker, Rosman, 12 Dogs 2021: Bont, MacRae, Libba, Treloar, Dunkley, Wallis, Bailey Smith, Hunter, Butler, Lipinski, Hayes, Roarke-Smith, Lin Jong. 13 Brisbane 2021: Neale, Zorko, Lyons, McCluggage, M Robinson, Berry, D Robertson, Ely Smith, Prior, Sharp, Ellis-Yoleman, Joyce, Bailey, Mathieson, Micheal. 14 Geelong 2021: Dangerfield, Selwood, Guthrie, Parfitt, Clark, I Smith, Duncan, Menegola, O’Connor, Holmes, Stephens, Constable, Narkle, Brownless, 14 Port 2021: Wines, Powell-Pepper, Duursma, Boak, Amon, Butters, Rockliff, Bergman, Farrell, Drew, Burgoyne, Schofield, Mead. 13 The AFL average for mids on a list is 14, we are two below that with Dunstan so need to draft at least two. A lot of clubs have 15 or 16, I can’t find any with less than 13, and the dogs 13 bats pretty deep, Ports 13 mids was thought of as thin all year. So yeah, we need to top up on KP over the next 3 years, but not urgently, we also need a developing ruck, but hopefully not urgently. We really need more mids, and this draft is laden with them, that’s what I think we’ll take. Mac Andrew would’ve been nice though, a developing ruck who can play forward who had a relationship with the club, ahhh well.

If we re-sign Hore and Declase we have 2 picks, only one of them 3 picks, neither of them 4 picks.the most we can have is 4 picks with either 2 rookies, 2 main or 1 rookie 3 main or 4 main. We can’t gain any more picks at this stage. The Maximum new players coming onto our list will be 6 with four as above and two category B rookies.

While it’s always great to see any informed draft like this I think this phantom greatly overestimates our need for key position players. If Van Rooyen slides to us at 19 I think we’ll definitely take him but to then take another KPF/(D) in Williams at 39 seems very unlikely. That would put Williams behind Brown, McDonald, Weideman, Brown and Van Rooyen in the forward line and behind May, Lever, Petty, Tomlinson, Smith and Turner (I did a whole thread on our positional needs heading into the draft elsewhere). Particularly with next year said to be a great draft for talls at the most I see us taking one KP and one developing ruck. If we get Van Rooyen we will go a mid at 39 (or very unlikely but possibly a ruck). Two forwards also starts leaving our list a little too tall heavy, Gawn, Jackson, Daw, Brown, McDonald, Weideman, Brown, May, Lever, Petty, Tomlinson, Turner, Smith and Van Rooyen is already close to a third of our list on talls with only 10 out and out mids it starts getting out of balance. Taking 3 mids is ideal for balance having lost Jones and Vanders and possibly Declase and only bringing in Dunstan.

We currently have 34 players on the senior list (including upgrades to Jordan and Chandler). We also have 4 players on the category A rookie list. (Not including Hore and Declase who, if they stay take us to 35 and 5 leaving us with only 2 list spots). Once you have 4 category A rookies it makes no difference to total list spots whether you rookie or senior list a player as you can either have 36 senior players and 6 cat A rookies or 38 senior players and 4 cat A rookies (or 37 senior, 5 A rookie also). The total between the two categories must be no more than 42. Because we have 4 A rookies already it makes it largely meaningless whether Chandler is on the rookie list or main list next year, we would still have four spots. The easiest way to think of it now is Melbourne can take 4 players total onto our list through draft, or keeping Hore and Declase, or pre-season or DFA. So to do what is listed in this phantom we would be delisting Hore and Declase and taking all four players through the draft. Because another club has bid on Woey in this example we would have to draft him to the main list but even if he fell through the entire draft and we category A rookied him that’s it for list spots. The only additional spots we then have are two category B rookie spots but they have specific rules and I’m not sure we could cat B Woewodin even if he fell through the entire draft.