binman

On 360 a couple of weeks back, David King highlighted the emergence of analytics in AFL and how important they have become for coaches in terms of informing game plans, strategies etc. I suspect Goody is well and truly on the analytics train. And related to that, i suspect some players have been instructed that unless there is an open player and an easy pass option to go for goal when it is on (ie not crazy shots from the boundary). Why? It's all about percentages. Logic suggests that the probability of scoring is higher in certain circumstances when the player shoots for goal rather than passing to teammate. And i assume this is reflected in the data. Often hitting a target can be almost as difficult as kicking the goal and as you suggest, passing creates an additional opportunity for a turnover. A turnover means we lose control of the ball. A point does too, however we can set up our wall more effectively after a point And even if the pass does hit a target, that player still has to go back and kick the goal. Which even directly in front 30 metres out might only be say a 70% chance of being converted into a goal (less depending on who is kicking). So, it is likely analytics show that in certain circumstances (eg right player, right spot on te ground, no completely free teammate) a goal is more likely if a shot is taken rather than passing - and perhaps also less likley to concede a goal on transition. This sort of analytics has been used in NFL, MBL and the NBA for decades. In the NBA it completely changed the sport because analytics showed that whilst three-point shots are statistically harder to hit than 2-point jump shots (and of course lay ups), putting a huge number of 3-point shots up leads to higher scoring. So now, pretty much every NBA team shoot massive numbers of 3-point shots, numbers that were unheard of 20 years ago. Not only has this led to an explosion in scoring, it has also fundamentally changed the game at the elite level both in terms of how it is played (so much faster and up and down the court running - sounds bit familiar in relation to the shift in the AFL) and what sort of athlete is optimal. Gone (well not completely gone) are the lumbering giants battling in the paint who would never take a three-point shot. Now most players are required to play multiple positions, have to be super-fast and athletic and of course be able to hit a jump shot and three pointers.

That's coz dees fans have class and don't respond to the screeching, beseeching hype person. That and the last 15 mins before the game is for checking the picnic hamper.

That's an excellent hypothesis- you are probably correct. That said I recall many dees losses in the 70s in super muddy conditions.

Agree. One of the biggest myths in footy is wet weather is an equaliser. Teams with good skills, like we have shown this season, are advantaged in the wet over teams with poor skills because generally good skill is a function of good technique and good technique stands up better in wet condtions (and when windy too for that matter, not to mention pressure). I'd add we are a contested ball team, which is another advantage we bring into this match as wet weather usually means lots of ground balls. All that said, we could luck out and miss any heavy rain. radar look ok and the heavy rain and thunderstorms are not forecast to hit until the evening

It's not about the total number of clearances, or the differential. It is about the differential in scoring from clearances. That's to say there are clearances and there are clearances. Our focus is on quality clearances and scoring from stoppages. We set up aggressively to maximise scoring potential and are often outnumbered at stoppages. This means that we will always give up our fair share of clearances. When the oppo do win the clearance, our focus is putting them under enough pressure to force a turnover, or at the least a crappy forward entry. A good example of a stat (like hit outs once was before it became clear it is a relatively meaningless stat) that does not have the relavance it might have say 2-3 seasons ago.

This post has a strange, wistful beauty about it.

Boomers and their obsession with syntax, grammar, accuracy and factual information!

I thought of that gag and soon as i hit submit. Thought it might be a touch lame to go back and edit my post with an intentional typo!

That hasn't been much of an issue with the bombers for some time now.

Proof reading is so 2010.

Funny you should say that. Was literally just about to post that my hatred extends to Hardwick.

I will NEVER forgive Essendon for their violence in the 2000 GF. NEVER.

Please note the following comments are an absolute guess - i have zero intel on this, or any evidence to support my guess. Kozzie will resign. As in in play on at the dees. It will be announced ahead of the King's birthday game against the Pies as part of a strategy to maximise attendance and increase membership numbers. It is a home game for us this year and a big crowd will make a huge difference to the club's bottom line. By the by, the ANZAC eve game is also a home game this year. Both games being our home games is great timing given there are no COVID related restrictions this season.

Note to self: read thread before posting

The BOM forecast is actually not too bad for our game. Rain and thunderstorms in the morning. A 'shower to (sic) two during the day, increasing in the evening with the chance of a thunderstorm' 'High Kozzie catching fire danger rating '

Fair call. Assuming stringer does play as a full forward. He has only played two games this year, so I don't think that is big enough sample size to be confident that will be his role going forward. May has destroyed franklin and darling in consequetive weeks. If he lines up on Stringer he will monster him

I reckon that is both very likely and a good move. Hibbo would have got him. But tomo is a good alternative. He's strong enough. Can sit on him - and run off him (stringer is not afl fit) and exploit stringer's lack of fitness. And stringer wont be able to exploit tomo's relative lack of speed and mobility And stringer is a good one on one mark when he can use his strength. Tomo's height will help negate that ability.

Strange isn't it. Made that exact point to them not that long after they started posting. I have vision of someone yelling at clouds. I'm actually really impressed posters who cop it mostly let it go through to the keeper.

Im just watching the replay now - it was actually Barass he outmarked! Sorry yeo - my bad

I'm watching the replay. Jeez Louise - not sure what the Eagles fans could possibly moan about. How many clear holding the ball frees were not paid to the dees!

Yep. I'm pretty sure it was yeo he outmarked after a pass from kossie, setting up one of his goals. Good mark, but my first thought was it was a hopeless bit of defending.

Yeah, but can kick a goal with a torp from outside 50. So watchable.

Yep. Goody's preferred set up for the last two seasons is two talls and the resting ruck. Essentially jvr is playing Jackson's role atm -albeit less ruck time. Petty has basically played bb's role- with a defensive forward twist. As you say, when maxy comes back, and assuming bb and tmac are both fit, a tall has to come out.

I agree Melk has been ok in the role (but lets not carried away - in his one game as sub JJ had 8 possessions, albeit playing as a mid, and crucially three tackles. Melk has kicked a couple of nice goals as a sub in his three games, but only had 7 posessions in total, albeit in a defensive forward role - and two tackles). And i don't mind Melk in the role - though i would have been really disappointed if he was selected ahead of JJ this week given how well JJ played against the swans. Personally, i think player should never be gifted a game - except in really rare circumstances, like getting a player to a big milestone when finals are out of play. But that's not my question (ie is it ok to gift players games). My question is whether an AFL club, a professional org in the elite competition, gift games in this scenario (finals well in play, milestone is 100 games with the club, plenty of alternatives). I guess to be more specific - would Goody do so?

I have a (serious) question. There seems to be a bit of chatter that the club is using the sub rule to get Melk to 100 games at the dees (though not so much after JJ got the nod against the eagles) - the inference being Melk has not been selected on merit. I understand giving a fringe player one, maybe two games to get them to the 100 game milestone. But would an AFL club really gift a player who has already achieved that milestone (and in melk's case also the 200-game milestone) 5-6 games to get them to 100 games for a new club (i assume the logic is by doing so it means any future father son/daughter rule is on the table)?