binman

I'm going to start a rock band. And call it the Petty Forward Experiment.

I really hope they don't make finals.

I have been thinking about theme song for this thread. Because it needs one. And found one, with both a death riding AND nautical vibe (tricky to find a track with both elements). Then the anchors (deliberate rhyming slang) beat the Cats and scuppered that for this week. Or, so I thought" Thanks to the Suns, i now give you (by the by, a brilliant track from one of the greatest ever AO rock records @whatwhat say what): Death ship I am the captain of a ghostly crew, Sail the seven seas with nothing to do. The girl that I thought was untrue Really loved me Near hidden reefs we appear in the gloom Luring mariners to their doom. As we're condemned, we condemn others too. Who would love me? Who? Would You? I'm asking you. I'm on the Death Ship, I sail the seas alone. Death Ship, I can call no port home. Lost souls cry to Hell in the wind Let us in, let us in, let us in! I need somebody who will die for me To free me of this misery. I need someone who will cry for me Really love me, really.

I'm not sure if you are being disingenuous with this post Jimmy - and in particular the question 'surely you've seen enough of us this year and even the last couple of games to suggest two losses from here is likely'? I say this because if you have read any of my posts in the last two months, or even in this very thread, you would know exactly where I stand on where the dees are at at this stage in the season and relative to the rest of the competition. And i know you know my opinions about how Goody and the high performance team structures our season, with the goal of playing our very best footy in September and timing our preparation and run to maximize the chances of doing so. It's not about winning the battles, it's about winning the war and all that. Hell, no-one has to believe me on that front - you just have to take the word of our senior coach who has made that exact point at least a dozen times in press conferences this season (ie EVERTHING is about peaking in September and giving the team the best possible chance of winning the flag). And you also know that i am very clear we structure our physical preparation for the season with the following pattern - even if it risks losing games we might otherwise win in the middle of the year: After a grueling preseason load, we are at our peak for the first third of the the season (as reflected in our results and game style in 2021, 2022 and yet again this year) We load in the middle of the season (in the words of Yze - a mini preseason) and suffer a resulting significant drop off in performance (as reflected in our results in 2021, 2022 and yet again this year) We close in on optimal fitness and running power in the last handful of home and away rounds with the goal of being at our absolute peak on prelim final day (as occurred in 2021 and didn't occur in 2022 - which of course doesn't mean we didn't follow the same program - it just means, for whatever reason, it didn't work) How do i know you know i believe all of that? Because, IIRC, you were one of several posters who seemed to take inordinate glee in directly calling me out last season when my prediction of us following the same trajectory as 2021 didn't eventuate. To be clear, i am not interested, at all, in relitigating the loading argument. Believe what what you want to believe. I accept some (most?) posters believe loading may have some impact, but nowhere near to the extent i do (and once again to be crystal clear i don't think loading is the only factor in our in annual drop off, or that we don't have genuine weaknesses - our kicking for instance). And i accept that some posters don't think it is factor at all, or if it is a factor, such an insignificant one that it is not really worth considering (and annoying for some that is considered). That's all good. But please accept the fact i am 100% certain our training program has a very significant bearing on how our season plays out and our premiership chances - and i am not going to change that belief. And I'm also prepared to put my neck out and make predictions that buck the safety of echoing the media narrative - unlike some posters who relentlessly bag us and give us little chance of success (not saying you are in this camp). But I'll play a straight bat, assume you are not being disingenuous and respond to your post in good faith by reiterating some of the points i have made many times in the last few months (including multiple times in this very thread): I think the Pies are a very, very good team - BUT are hugely overrated by the media and by most football fans, many of whom blindly follow the lead of the media rather than think independently (again, not saying you are in this camp) The Pies have achieved nothing, and have significant vulnerabilities that will be, and have been, exposed in the heat of finals, or finals like pressure games - as clearly evidenced in their record in such games in the last two seasons (their loss against the blues was the perfect example of how these vulnerabilities are exposed in high pressure games) By the by, on the Pies, i just watched the 'The round so far' and Riley Beveridge made an interesting point - yes, the pies record of coming back in last quarters is incredible, winning 12 from 17 when trailing at 3 quarter time in their last 32 games (and i 100% agree ), but 'should a team as good as the Pies be trailing at 3 quarter time in 17 out of 32 games?' We are the best team in the AFL - and in my opinion, by some margin - with a formidable record over the last three seasons (unlike the Pies whose claim to fame is winning 32 of their last 42 home and away games) If I was framing a betting market I would have us as favorites to win the flag (the Pies current odds of 2.75 are just ridiculous) We have the best defensive system in the AFL (though the Giants, who have clearly modelled their method on ours, are a very close second) - defence win finals Unlike the Pies, we have a method that is built for finals - as evidenced by the fact that much the same method has won 5 of the last 6 flags (the outlier is the 2018 Eagles flag) The above point is evidenced by our recent record against other top 4 sides - like the Pies we are 2-2, but unlike the Pies we have beaten two other top 4 sides (and arguably should have beaten Port) whereas the Pies have only beaten the one top 4 team (Port, who i have never rated as a top 3 team, who they only just beat) and got smashed by the Lions We beat the Pies and were comfortably the better team on the day (such is the rampant Pies myopia, that seems to count for very little; IIRC you gave them the David King pass - every team has an off day i think was your comment) We beat the Lions two weeks back, albeit just (i rate the Lions at least the equal of the Pies - well i did before Ashcroft went down, such is his importance to them) We are not quite there yet, but we are very close to being in our optimal shape And consequently, as i predicted on many occasions we would, we are now playing the sort of expansive offensive football we played in the first third third of the season (because we have the run in the legs to implement the method - which is simply not the case in the middle of the year) - something the media, with their complete inability to see each home and away game as part of a bigger picture, have of course failed to point out I think we will be at our peak for our round 22 game against the blues (who, like you i really rate - they play forward half, contest, high pressure finals footy. In that context it is worth noting we dominated them when we comfortably beat them in round 12) We are experimenting (with roles, strategies, method etc etc) way more than we did in 2021 an 2002 and won't nail down our method or final line up till the eve of the finals I fully expect us to return to the way we played in the first third of the season with a much better balance between defence and offence and a return to controlling tempo when required We will win our final 5 games (i have calculated the odds of doing so as 5-1) We will win the flag By the by, i rate your footy nous and so I am genuinely shocked that you think the following: I'm expecting we lose two though. How can you not?' Fair enough if that is what you think - we all have our opinions. But what that particular opinion tells me is we are miles apart in our assessment of where the dees are at. We'll know who is right in five games time.

Nice reframe. Good prophylactic for MFCSS.

But also the if we beat (insert team) narrative has a logical flaw because each game is not independent of others - that's to say individual matches may influence subsequent matches. For example, let's take the close loss to GWS. Maybe we took some lessons from that loss that helped us knock off the saints in the next match. Or maybe if we had beaten gws we might have gone into the saints game over confident and lost as a result. Losses provide lessons that close wins might not. So perhaps the learnings from the close giants lose fed into some changes to our late game systems that helped us hold off the crows. Who knows what impact close losses might have had on subsequent results? Or for that matter what impact a hypothetical reversal of such losses might have had.

D.H Gawn.

Even if they win their last 4 games, we would have to lose two of our last 5 games for them to get ahead of us. Given we play the roos and hawks, in all likelihood that would mean losing two of our games against the tigers, blues and swans. Can't see that happening. But in any case the blues will do well to win their last four games. They play the saints at marvel, dees, the suns away, and the giants at marvel.

Are you being serious?

Lions will maul freo. I watched that game. They'll def miss Ashcroft, but my take is they simply didn't turn up. The suns did and, brought the heat, and the lions couldn't get going. That they didn't come fully wound up is a bigger worry than not having Ashcroft. It's too late in the season for a genuine contender to be flat coming into any game. A bad sign Same will be true I'd we don't bring it tommorow. But i could not be more confident we will. We will smash the tigers.

The bogan express.

I didn't watch the cats dockers game, so not sure how poorly cats played. But i can't see the cats losing twice in a row at home, particularly because port will struggle to come up after two weeks of intense footy and have to travel. On rhe travel, interstate teams must hate playing at kp because they have to fly into tulla and then get in a bus for what, 75 mins, down to Geelong?

My take is it extremely difficult to back up after a game as intense and physical as last weeks pies port game - particularly if it is another high stakes, high pressure game. I mean, the evidence simply could not be clearer. It's not that the pies and port, first and second on the ladder, both lost. It's how they lost - both teams were gassed from the get go. I wouldn't be writing port off on the back of that game. That said i think it is a joke so many 'experts' had a top three - pies, port and lions - and the rest. And I'm glad I've banged in about it. Peanuts everywhere in the media. And on port - I didn't rate them in the top 3 prior to that game. So nothing has changed. My one regret on the punting front is not backing the crows over 39. Had the line and win bets covered, but should have had a nibble on the over 39 because that game was my best bet of the year. The crows were set for it. And as I expected port were gassed.

Yep. So have I. Thanks giants and crows.

Demonstone was. Succeeding too.

How about an agonising draw?

No chance port will finish top. Tough game tonight, cats at kp next week. Easy last three games, but they are effectively 3 games behind the pies - 8 points plus 20 odd percentage. Even if they don't lose another game, pies would have to drop 3 of their last 4 games.

100% agree. The suns can get hardwick as a coach, but it will make little difference if they don't sort their fitness, development, welfare and other critical systems and programs.

Small forward? Clueless.

Their last three games are almost as tough as our last three games last season - the cats at the g on the Friday night, the lions (also a Friday night) at marvel and the bombers at the g. On paper, the bombers is the easiest of those games, but it will be a massive crowd and the bombers might be playing for a spot in the eight. We saw last year, with our games against the pies, blues and lions, how high pressure, high stakes, finals like games leading into finals can flatten a team.

Pressure and contested ball. That's finals footy.

Totally agree. And they are the hunted every single week.

Didn't they have allegedly have some flu ahead of their loss against us? They seem to have a bad habit of getting crook in the lead up to games where the oppo go super hard at them and apply huge pressure. Unlucky for them that's what finals footy is. Must have also struck them down in the lead up to their two high pressure finals they lost last year.

Personally, I'd like to hear more of it. The pies def looked gassed - understandable given the intensity od last week, travel and six day break. I reckon port will struggle to come up to, though luckily for them the crows are coming of a tough game and a six day break.

Yep. The pies are too gassed.