binman

Pace yourself newie

Ta. Doesn't change the analysis that there is only slight increase in the percentage of shots from the pockets in the last 4 games over our season average, and that therefore our inaccuracy in the last few weeks can't be explained by us taking a lot more difficult shots. In fact, the the cats game we had the second highest percentage of shots from dead in front 20-35 meters of any game his season (only behind the 30.3% of shots from from the corridor 20-35 meters in our mauling of the Swans in round 3)

What the hell is this? Are you responding to the right post? Or have you really misinterpreted and/or misrepresented what i wrote so wildly? Note: i don't really care which of the above it is, but if the latter save your legs, as i'm not going to go to the effort to explain why you have got it so wrong.

Fascinating data wheello. Contradicts somewhat the idea that out inaccuracy is caused by our entries ie that we are having heaps of difficult shots becuase we have been kicking to the pockets more An interesting stat from the last 4 games is the percentage of shots from the pocket but from 35 meters plus. It is those shots that are the most likely to miss the shots. There has been a slight increase it seems from our season average of such shots in the last 4 games. I think in part that could be explained by tow interacted elements: we are not moving the ball at speed and so are not creating free players inside 50 our territory and inside 50 dominance means the ball is trapped in our front half a lot, which creates a super congested forward area 9and few free players to spot up) and shots from near the 50 metre arc from intercepts marks from dump clearing kicks from oppo defenders When we start moving the ball quicker i expect there will be less kicks from the pockets and 35 plus metres out. On the data for the last four rounds, it is important to consider how wet it was in the cats and giants games.

The same could be said of the Eagles - who have 30,000 odd people paying for the privilege of being on a waiting list to become a member. The money is great - all power to the pies. But at the end of the day teams are judged on winning flags and having all the resources to do so adds further pressure.

All top deck usually. Or at least top deck behind each goal.

Great. Fans gets the warm and fuzzies. Footy is about winning flags not selling badges. Mcrae had achieved nothing. Zilch. A bunch of home and away wins. Three finals. Two losses - including a preliminary final to a team who proceeded to get flogged by 15 goals in the gf. Meanwhile we have a coach who has actually achieved something - he has won a flag, breaking a 57 year drought. He has coached 150 afl games, with a 58% win loss ratio. Won 5 of 8 finals he has coached, including 50 50 in prelims. By way of contrast, clarkson, often hailed as the best coach of the modern era, had a win loss ratio at the hawks of 60%. Get back to me when mcrae can boast a record anywhere near as impressive as goodys. Mcrae is on a hiding to nothing this year. The pies are a fantastic team. But given the fact they have no record of success, other than some home and away wins, the expectations on them are just ridiculous. People just seem to be accepting they will win the flag and are streets ahead of their rivals. The last time I can recall such expectation is the tigers in 2018. The big difference is the tigers wete coming off aligning a flag, not getting bundled put of the final in a prelim. What happens if they don't win the flag? It will be viewed by most as a failure. Team and coach fail. Which is just ridiculous. What does that do to the optimism and postive energy everyone seems to love about the pies? How does the team rebound? Say it continues to dominate the 2024 home and away season. Two failed finals campaigns will hang over the club like a huge question mark shaped shadow.

A serious question jimmy - not trying a gotcha. Two in fact. Other than 'any team can be beaten on their day' how do you reconcile your assessment of the pies as the dominant team and 'streets ahead of us' with the fact we beat them three games back. I mean that was no lucky win. The scoreboard well and truly flattered them. We were clearly the better team on the day. Goody out coached mcrae, we took away their strengths and smashed them in the contest. The second question is, the lions also beat them, and in much the same manner - deny them space, take away the corridor and smash them in the contest. Yes that game was at the gabba, but like us, the lions also dominated them. Do you not think it is a concern that, added to the fact they lost two of three finals last year, the pies been soundly beaten by 2 of 3 of their key serious rivals tgia season and with the same strategy (and pretty easily too I might add)? On a related note, if we were talking about the dees with a similarly poor record against other genuine contenders and in big games, plenty of dl posters would be highlighting that record and warning we aren't that good (in fact IIRC, variations of that theme were frequently pssted in dl in 2021 and 2022).

Love it. Like a pendles netflix sci fi time loop series

Nah, sorry that's complete rubbish. How do I know that? Well, i don't need some 'expert' with an agenda to protect the reputation of his profession. I have all the experts I need right here on DL. I mean, how could Bruckner hold a candle to people who can confidently say we have botched oliver's treatment with zero access to his private medical information or zero knowledge about what his injury is, or what the complications might have been. Or limited or no medical training whatsoever for that matter. You don't need years of study and training to understand the medical team have stuffed up. It's just common sense. That's all that is needed If covid taught us anything it is that experts are dangerous.

Exec summary: We are near the end of the phase of coming into each match super fatigued. It is this fatigue that is at the heart of our current performance issues -just as was the case in 2021 and 2022 (there's a pattern) Our fast, aggressive ball movement, high scoring and accuracy will all return. We will win the flag this season. Everyone take a chill pill.

Blimey, even Hemingway can't process more than 280 characters these days!

An other potential upside of Oliver being out is it creates an opportunity for JJ. JJ' s best spot in my opinion is as a true mid, so Oliver's' injury could prove a blessing in disguise by giving him the chance to cement his spot in the team as a mid - and potentially change the trajectory of JJ's career (ie he might stay, not leave to get a permanent spot in the ones)

1. i agree. I am big Smithy fan, but i i agree his defensive work on Tom Stewart and Nick Haynes was not good enough. he was given a chance to establish himself in the team, but unfortunately i don't think he took it. It will be interesting to see if he is sub. 2. Could not agree more - does my head in. I mean it is 6 years since the tigers won the their first flag and changed football. One such change was bringing the concept of players given a specific role with KPIs specific to that role (never number the number of possessions - and to explode the head of many, not necessarily even goals for forwards, like the high half forward role Nibbler and Spargo play)

Some additional context for my post about the ins MT: My perspective on selection is informed by a belief that we are coming to the end of s heavy block of training designed to maximize the likelihood we are cherry ripe come finals This block of training exacerbates the accumulative fatigue of the season and individual matches (like last weeks game, which would have been super tiring given our contest numbers and the weather) The form of the team suffers as result of this fatigue, as does the form of individual players - with some, particularly younger players, being impacted more than others [Note: even if you are of view that fatigue is only a minor consideration, or don't believe we do a mid season heavy block of training that impacts our performance, the fact remains the pattern is crystal clear. This is third season in a row where we have had a significant mid season slump characterized by losses in games when favorite, a drop off in skills, a drop off in performance by the team and individual players (particularly younger players) and chronic inaccuracy. So whatever someone's explanation is for that pattern, surely one of them can't be that it's just a weird coincidence] The coaching panel are juggling multiple, often competing, imperatives in terms of selection for the games in this phase of the season - picking a team that can win the game, load management of the team, load management of individual players, development of individual players and most of all maximizing the chances of winning a flag The campaign is not about winning the individual battles (but of course you have to win enough of those battles to be top 4), it is about winning the war - as much as the footy media would love fans to believe it, each game isn't a must win game, an isolated event or a litmus test on premiership chances So, just as i suggested prior to the Cats game when i predicted Spargo would be the sub for load management reasons, the selection would be different for the Saints' game if their sole imperative was to win the game - if it was, JVR probably gets selected As an example of how my perspective informs my thinking on selection, I agree Spargo has been down on form the last few weeks but i think fatigue is likely the main cause (same is true of Chandler, who needs a chop out and is getting one, and other players too) and as opposed to dropping him for form, they are managing his game time as part of his fitness program I always find the debate on selection a little hard to engage with because it's often not clear to me whether posters are expressing an opinion on who they think should be selected or who they think will be selected Normally, i am in the latter camp So when i predicted earlier in this thread the ins would be Woey (who had been announced at that point), Jordon and Spargo, it was based on my prediction of what would happen, not what i think should happen And that prediction was informed by all of the above dot points So, for example, i view JVR's non-selection through the lens of the club wanting to give a young player a break from the rigors of senior AFL football (he is only 19, and in his second season, which is crazy young for a key forward), to enhance his development as a player. work on deficits and maximize the likelihood he is fit, firing and in ripping form come finals I find some of the criticism of selection ironic, as sometimes it comes from posters who this time last year were vociferously bemoaning Goody's so called stubbornness, refusal to be more flexible with selection, not bringing in fresh players from Casey, not managing players, not rewarding form at Casey, and, horrors of horrors, not copying the Cats 'squad mentality' There's a double irony, because before the season started, goody, almost as if answering his DL critics, said we would 100% be taking a different approach to selection this season and taking more of a squad mentality And Goody has been true to his word - and of course still gets slammed by some of the very same posters knocking him last year for his static selection policy I don't share the sky is falling, jumping at shadows vibe that permeates DL at this time of year (well, the last three years) - we are tracking fine and in my opinion will make top 4 and win the flag To be clear, i also accept there is a very good chance we won't win the flag. To demonstrate what i mean by this seeming contradiction, for the sake of argument, let's say the Pies' current odds with the bookies (aprox $3 - which translates to 2-1) are an accurate reflection of the 'true odds' of them winning the flag. At those odds, if the season is played out 100 times, even as 2-1 favorites they still lose lose 40 times. By the by, i don't care what team it is - $3 for any time of the year is ridiculously short odds (under the 'true' odds) given so many things could go wrong between now and the end of September that could negatively impact their chances of winning the flag - eg Nick Daicos tears his hammy badly in round 24. Taking $3 now for the Pies to win the flag is the equivalent of backing the favorite for the Melbourne Cup on the futures market 3 months out from the race - a bet the bookies salivate over as it is money for jam for them. Which is why they have a futures market. I had the same view in 2021 and again last season. I could care less if that view is again dismissed as being delusional. By the by, my perspective on the arc of the season has sometimes been dismissed on the grounds that i was somehow proven 'wrong' last year because we got knocked out of the finals in straight sets. That opinion is logically inconsistent if it is not also accepted i was right in 2021. I'm batting .500 - not bad when talking predicting flags.

Nup. VFL is 100% a chop out - way, way less intense, shorter quarters and because the stakes are not as high, much more flexibility to manage minutes or for example, give a player some specific things to work on and/or play a different role (which might be about helping him work on specific things - eg sending a forward back to improve his defensive skills - or just to free him up to get his hands on the pill). See goody's comments about why they ran spargo through Casey after his concussion (precis: the lower intensity of the vfl meant we could ease him back in after what was a bad concussion)

LN must be reading this thread right now and loving it - 'i can manipulate the DL sheeple even when i don't post!

I don't know what your deal is, but I'm heartily sick of sick of the complete lack of respect you, and some others, show the coach of the football team i love and support. I'm putting you on ignore because I'm sick of my team being attacked on a forum I post on because supposedly it is dees 'fan' forum.

Doing a job each week isn't he.

Good ins. Jordon into the middle off a dominant display. Spargo best 22, provides defensive run as a high half forward and will help with our kicks inside 50. Has been managed and should be in good nick. Woey rewarded for hard work, brings the buzz of a debutante- a father son of one of few Charlie winners ti boot. From goody's comments, JVR has some work to do on his game (and possibly fitness?). He'll be back in the next couple of matches, and is best 22. They want him cherry ripe in the finals not mid winter. Good development of a very young player to be playing as a key tall.

I reckon there's a good chance smithy will be the sub. In some ways, with his athleticism and ability to play tall, he's the perfect sub as he can play so many roles (albeit to variable levels).

I'm not that down on it. One thing in its favour is it is very easy to find your seats and navigate. And it's great viewing from all seats, including where I usually sit - top stand behind the goals. I live in altona, so coming in by train is great because it's quick and southern Cross is only a couple of minutes to the ground.

Can't quite, put my finger on it, or properly explain it, but I agree with the feeling the place is soulless. I find the lighting weird when the roof is closed - which it is all the time now. Too dull. And with the roof closed creates I find the acoustics are a bit weird too. And funnily enough, games are now often scrappy, congested and low scoring. I say funnily enough, because it used to be high scoring ground because of the controlled conditions. But all team defence and zones creates congestion because the ground is so narrow.

I thought jvr would be an in, but that doesn't sound likely based on goody's comments - which is no bad thing. As goody said he is only a kid, probably needed a chop out and of course still has lots of things to improve and develop in his game I think in addition to woey, jordon and spargo will both come back in to the 23. Fritter out obviously. Melksham to cime out, jordon possibly the sub. That's two. Harmes would be my guess for the third out.

I haven't watched that many casey games, but I think he has predominantly played as a pure winger. That was certainly his role when he came on against the saints in the preeason game (from memory, replacing langdon).