binman

I don't know what your deal is, but I'm heartily sick of sick of the complete lack of respect you, and some others, show the coach of the football team i love and support. I'm putting you on ignore because I'm sick of my team being attacked on a forum I post on because supposedly it is dees 'fan' forum.

Doing a job each week isn't he.

Good ins. Jordon into the middle off a dominant display. Spargo best 22, provides defensive run as a high half forward and will help with our kicks inside 50. Has been managed and should be in good nick. Woey rewarded for hard work, brings the buzz of a debutante- a father son of one of few Charlie winners ti boot. From goody's comments, JVR has some work to do on his game (and possibly fitness?). He'll be back in the next couple of matches, and is best 22. They want him cherry ripe in the finals not mid winter. Good development of a very young player to be playing as a key tall.

I reckon there's a good chance smithy will be the sub. In some ways, with his athleticism and ability to play tall, he's the perfect sub as he can play so many roles (albeit to variable levels).

I'm not that down on it. One thing in its favour is it is very easy to find your seats and navigate. And it's great viewing from all seats, including where I usually sit - top stand behind the goals. I live in altona, so coming in by train is great because it's quick and southern Cross is only a couple of minutes to the ground.

Can't quite, put my finger on it, or properly explain it, but I agree with the feeling the place is soulless. I find the lighting weird when the roof is closed - which it is all the time now. Too dull. And with the roof closed creates I find the acoustics are a bit weird too. And funnily enough, games are now often scrappy, congested and low scoring. I say funnily enough, because it used to be high scoring ground because of the controlled conditions. But all team defence and zones creates congestion because the ground is so narrow.

I thought jvr would be an in, but that doesn't sound likely based on goody's comments - which is no bad thing. As goody said he is only a kid, probably needed a chop out and of course still has lots of things to improve and develop in his game I think in addition to woey, jordon and spargo will both come back in to the 23. Fritter out obviously. Melksham to cime out, jordon possibly the sub. That's two. Harmes would be my guess for the third out.

I haven't watched that many casey games, but I think he has predominantly played as a pure winger. That was certainly his role when he came on against the saints in the preeason game (from memory, replacing langdon).

Actually, woey's incredible fitness and running power was also ahead of its time.

Doubly so, because apparently he was a very good chance to be selected in round one before he broke his thumb. That's three of the WA boys, JVR Mcvee and woey jnr, who all did some serious running work over their XMAS break back on Perth and have made the seniors. Great reward for hard work. The year woey snr won the Brownlow he was brilliant. In some ways he was ahead of his time- his run and carry and efficient ball use would fit perfectly into the best sides now.

They won't be able to do hardly work between flying out late Sunday night, Monday a wipeout and suit up Friday night. So, agree hopefully they'll be fresher. They'll love not playing in frigid wet conditions- something they would not have planned for in their program given the game was in the Alice. That game will have taken alot out of them. Maybe good to roll some fresh players through? I expect spargo to come back in, maybe jordon and jvr. So that's three. Unlikely to he any more than 3 changed But it helps the saints are also off six day break and had to travel back from Perth. I still reckon we are a couple of weeks away from being cherry ripe.

Fair enough RP. Apologies, i wasn't trying to create a Lord Nev style gotcha circular argument. I am life long punter on the ponies. That experience has informed how i analyze football. For example, critical data for horse punters is the form. Obviously current form, but even more important is historical form and patterns - both for specific horses and more broadly (for example the record of international 3 year olds in the Melbourne cup). I apply the same lens to footy and the dees trajectory. Of course history is not a iron clad predictor of future events, but it is an excellent guide - in horses and footy. Based on the evidence and history, i strongly believe that in all probability, that by round 19 or 20 the way we play will change, just as it did in 2021 and 2022, with our scores going up, the game style being more expansive and looking like rounds 1-6 this year. And it wont be because we (not suggesting these are your views, well except for pulling the finger out) : Have rediscovered our dare (like it was hiding behind the couch) Pulled our finger out Just decided to play differently Stood up Recognized the folly of our current method Any other mystical explanation It will be, just like a horse trainer plotting to win a group one race, because it is a forensically planned out campaign.

Fair question. He has the green light to tale on risky kicks, which might explain those numbers a bit. I rate him as elite kick, but perhaps you're right and I'm over rating his kicking skills.

Couldn't have said it better myself.

No, I'm asking you a simple question. Do you think the way we play will change as we approach the finals, as it did in 2021 and 2022, with our scores going up and the game style being more expansive and looking like rounds 1-6 this year? I'm not asking how we might achieve that, I'm asking if you think we will go back to the way we played in our preseason and round 1-6. It's not a trick question. And It is really a yes or no answer - maybe is a bit wishy washy.

Agree on all points. It is definitely a high wire act. It is a fascinating question I think as to how much teams are prepared to risk losing in the home and away season to increase their chances of winning a flag. I think the dogs and tigers fundamentally changed the calculation for many teams. Both teams played a style unsuited to playing a full home and away season - as their results attested. But a style definitely suited to winning a flag. Recent history is crystal clear, the brutal, chaos football the tigers introduced is the template - since 2017 the only winner play8ng a different style outlier was the eagles in 2018 (ironically after the tigers had their best home and away season almost ever, only to lose the prelim as 1.40 favs). If you include the dogs win (diff approach, but still chaotic) six of the seven flags have been won by teams using very similar methods. In that same period, the lions, Port and the cats (until they famously changed course ladt year) were brilliant performers in the home and away phase, and perennial top 4s, but couldn't get it done when it counted. Fans happy rounds 1-23. Not so happy come finals. Meanwhile, goody is in his seventh season as an AFL coach, has made finals in only three of those seasons (will be four this year) - making a preliminary in 2018, a flag in 2021 and our in straight sets last year (having earned a double chance). I'd take that record over say, ken Hinckley, who despite having incredible resources, strong teams and a pronounced home ground advantage, has not even made a GF, let alone win one. Much the same could be said about Fagan and the lions.

Basically, with the advent of tbe sophisticated defensive zoens, every team is the same forward line game plan, including the pies. The exception is the cats and the lions, who both try to engineer as much space as possible to give Hawkins, daniher, hipwood and Cameron opportunities to be one out. But even doing so, as soon as the ball is stopped zones get back and it becomes all but impossible to find space ot take contested marks. The only way to create space now in footy, is win the ball from centre clearances whilst the 6 6 6 is still in force (which was brought in for exactly this reason - create space and one on ones in the forward line by stopping teams flooding their defensive zone) OR go fast on transition so teams can't get their defensive zones set. The latter is basically the pies game plan, and how we played preseason and rounds 1-6. I know this sounds a little fey, but i really wish dees fans had more faith in goody. He has well and earned that with our team's first flag in 57 years. If that holds no water because it is history, then I don't want to hear about the program not working last year. We won't flick a switch as such, more slowly open the valve. And if they have got their fitness program right, we will soon (rounds 19 or 20?) be back to our offensive, fast transition best. Stay the course people. Have some faith. It's all about winning the war, not the battles

Spot on jnr. I didn't see this post before making my previous one. 'My observation is that during pre-season and the early part of this season we were playing a lot more daring football and kicking angles into the corridor. Hence our accuracy at goal as many of the shots were front and centre. But as we have seen in the past 5 weeks it has shifted dramatically to old style of kick along the boundary and bomb the ball into our fwd line.' This is exactly right. In a nutshell, it is my contention that in the middle of the season they don't have the run in the legs to implement the model you describe we employed in the first third of this season (and in the first halves against the pies and lions ladt season,and the back end of 2021). But will employ again if we can get the run in our legs back. The interesting question is whether goody should modify the model now to mitigate the core elements of the game plan that make brutal and blunt now (forward half pressure, contest, reentries etx etc). Essentially adopt a new, or at least modified sytem. Or if doing so risks players not instinctively understanding the system and the role they play in it come finals. Goody has clearly gone with the latter philosophy (though had def made some adjustments this season in this mid year phase eg reinforcing the defensive focus, less rusky kick etc). And one assumes that is because it will increase our chances of winning the flag.

A serous question rpfc. Do you think the way we play will change as we approach the finals, as it did in 2021 and 2022, with our scores going up and the game style being more expansive and looking like rounds 1-6 this year?

The thing is with the kicking skills isse, there is no easy fix, and they certainly won't solve themselves naturally (which is not to say we can't try something up forward - but really rhey are pretty limited what they can do. They have after all tried petty and brought Smith) Goody has built a game style that this list of players can win flags with. What's the point of us, say adopting the pies model if we don't have enough players who can reliably hit high risk kicks that model demands. We went all in on contested ball winners in tracc, oliver, Gus and viney - none of whom who are elite kicks. We had Max, a generalation ruck - but just a passable kick, albeit he has really improved his kicking over the journey. Only two elite kicks, in Watts and Salem, though Wattsy not tough enough, or committed I'm guessing, for goody, so he's soon out. And in Salem, we essentialy took him and Hunt, instead of Kelly, who is exactly the sort of plsyer we now need. Max, tracc, viney, oliver, gus and salo. Some A grade stars. Contested ball beasts. Bulls. Not much silk. But, with the exception of salo, often unreliable by foot and only salo an elite kick at the Pendulbury, Sidebottom level. That's the foundation goody inherited. To that he added key the structural players in May, Lever and Langdon he needed to build a premiership team. But again, all three are ok kicks, but certainly not elite. In May's case he is elite sometimes- but turns it over way too often in the 20-30 metre range, often under no pressure. It will take time to bring in some really skilled players to support Max, trac et al - all of whom are locked in on long contracts. Taylor has been working on it though. JVR is a terrific kick, nice simple technique, Mcvee is a great in, Laurie is waiting, Howe looks like he has neat skills, and I really like Sestan's kicking - has the knack of balancing up a touch before hitting it. And Hunter was a good pick up - adding an elite kick straight in to the 22. When the weather improves and we get closer to finals, we will increase tge speed of ball movement and transition. And all things being g equal we look like we did rounds 1-6. More space, more free players ahead of the ball, more movement by hand, riskier corridor kicks leading to better angles leading lanes openingup etc etc- all of which mitigates the kicking skills issue. Frustrating, but we're close to playing that sort of ballistic, fast game that everyone loves. Let's just hope it doesn't rain again this year. It's also worth remembering that the method goody has built is based on that of the tigers - who also had a pretty average list in terms of kicking skills. The tigers also built a model to take advantage of the strengths of their list - and won three flags.

Agree. The model works completely differently in the dry. For one thing a forward line with three talls in it ( say resting ruck, bb, jvr) has a chance of marking - or in Brown's case keep his feet. And we convert more ground ball wins. We can spread and switch, and take on more risky kicks. But in the wet, the model becomes too blunt. All congestion. Contest to contest. A battle. Perfect for viney, but not many others. And there's the rub. Why doesn't goody change the approach? One possibility is he believes the system is the key, and to maximise the likelihood every player executes their role on grand final day every game should be used as an opportunity to drill the system so it becomes instinctive. For an infinite range of other possibilities, please see the Is Goodwin the right coach uber thread.

Sure In dry conditions. And besides 77 inside 50s is very misleading. I'm guessing half of them were reentries. Meaning the ball was coming back into a forward line with 30 odd players in there. No space at all. No leading lanes. All but impossible to take a contested mark. Wet. Slippery. Chaos. We basically didnt score on transition. In part because the ball was in our forward half most of the time. Meaning there was almost always congestion ahead of the ball. And no overlap run meant no free players ahead of the ball. And again, its worth pointing out the giants scores to inside 50 efficiency was significantly worse than ours - 26% to our 36%. Unfortunately their goals to inside 50 ratio was a hell of a lot better than ours. We kick straight. We win.

Another theme in the wet.

Great post. Didn't mcvees ball handling skills really stand out. Classy player.

That's a fair point - though it's worth noting their smalls didnt do any damage either. And the reality is we don't have any small forwards ready to play seniors at Casey. But if koz kicks 2.1 like Greene did from hid three shots, instead of 1.2, we win the game. Tbe swans have some terrific smalls and medium forwards. Didn't help them kick accurately in their draw with the cats - a game also played in the wet and one they too should have won easliy.