DeeSpencer

October form guides: 2019: Jackson at 14, Pickett nowhere 2023: Windsor at 11 2021: Mac Andrew at 9 Twomey is an amalgamator of experts drip fed knowledge. He’s got way too many journo responsibilities during the afl season to be a proper expert. The best mids often identify themselves easily. The talls and special flankers are trickier to place. I think Tauru absolutely belongs towards the top and I’m warming to the idea Armstrong does too.

The only experts are the clubs who draft players in a few weeks time. There’s a few big time prospects right at the top but I feel very confident there’s not 6-8 must draft mids.

He’d be a fantastic pick 9 and a perfectly fine pick at 5. There’s way too much attachment to these midfielders.

Goal kicking: 7/10 don’t entirely love the technique but he has a routine and keeps it straight. Very side on and has moments when he loses distance, he might get the yips if it breaks down at times but generally reliable Marking: 5/10 elevates comfortably, drops more than he should but takes some nice ones too Presenting: 7/10 - does some high level stuff with seeking out the defender and protecting space. Not an innate skill for many young talls. Some nice leads too. Contesting: 6/10 - he’s not a pack crasher but he does fly for his marks and get hands on the footy. I think wanting bash and crash key forwards at 18 years old has been something our recruiters have overvalued. Athleticism: undisclosed/10: can’t find a 2km or 20m sprint. Incredible agility result and that comes through in his play. Really good at ground level inside 50. I can see the doubters saying his very similar to Jeffo but I think he has better mobility and a naturally bigger frame. Doesn’t clunk marks to the same level but he’s got similar traits to Petty (with a natural forwards mindset). There’d be an obvious appeal to have him take over from Petty by as soon as 2026.

There's your answer. Deakyn probably captain. Good get, should provide a lot of leadership off half back.

The danger is teams trading back up especially with the Saints double picks. Not too many teams that could do it but Sydney might have a crack with 19 and 22 and whatever else they can offer. And Richmond would surely think hard about 10 and 24. The ability for teams to trade up makes it very hard to get tricky on who you're picking.

Sideways and backwards

Only new intel there was Smillie to Richmond at 6. Nothing definitive on North. Still exploring other options to get a tall and possibly stay at 2 for a mid. And the Draper to Adelaide connection is far from proven.

Assuming the best 3 mids are gone I’m happy to take Armstrong at 5 if JT sees it that way. 9 would have to be a runner, but there’s more ways to find a runner with midfield potential than a pure mid.

Yep, Carlton might have a surprise in stall (I suspect they’ll consider Tauru if he’s available) but FOS is such a perfect fit for what they need.

FB: Disco Petty ??? HB: Bowey ??? McVee C: Windsor Rivers ???? HF: Chandler ???? ???? FF: Pickett JVR ???? Foll: ???? ???? Kolt Int: Sparrow, Spargo ???? ???? Maybe: Jeffo, Howes, Sharp, Woey etc To me, that’s the team we are drafting for. No doubt we hope Gawn, Viney, May, Lever, Tracc, Oliver, Salem, Langdon can all play on at a high level for years to come, but we are trying to fill gaps in our best 22, we’re trying to create the next wave.

I can see Lalor at 1, he has a combination of skills and power that is so rare. Tauru at 2, Adelaide getting spooked by go home factor and taking Draper at 4 is the very limited path to Langford at 5.

You don’t make list management decisions based on having Wade Derksen. You certainly don’t make them when you don’t even have him. That would be like choosing where to go for a fancy dinner based on possibly having some 2 minute noodles in the cupboard. Rivers is a mid now. Look at his B+F voting post midfield move. He’s ready for it. Theres some decent mids at the top of the draft but we have needs everywhere. No point adding Darcy Parish and Elijah Tsatas if there’s better players in other roles.

I don't think he's nearly as explosive as a Dusty/Tracc or as strong as even a young Cripps but I definitely agree on the footy IQ, that's a big reason why I think he can be versatile in more than just a mid/forward. The strong marks and nice kicks are great but I love this run from half back, mind you it's 4 on 1 so it's not exactly the worlds toughest decision making test but the way he fakes the handball then puts it perfectly out to space. Then caps it off by hustling and taking out the Vic Metro player. That's a combination of skills, smarts and selflessness that recruiters will love.

You're arguing different things here I think. Bob is asking about his overall attacking game being good enough to counter defensive speed issues. His ability to go forward is part of that but only one part. He looks natural jumping for marks and can present at the ball. It's a very nice string to the bow, but I'm not overly enamored with the idea of him spending too much time in the forward line (once he's in his prime). Carlton have tried it with Cripps and often he just gets in the way and the lack of forward pressure doesn't help. Mattaes Phillipou is a little bigger and more athletic and has often struggled to really impact forward too. I like Langford's height and aerial for what it can be combined with a tank all over the ground and his versatility that should see him be able to rotate to a wing, to half back/3rd tall back and of course half forward or deep forward. There's some Jimmy Bartel or younger Jordan Lewis about him. But Bob's right, the main determination will be does he look like he'll be a 30 high quality touches and goal a game attacking midfielder. Because if you get one of those guys you can find others to do the defensive work.

That's a good strategy if you're Collingwood or Richmond or any other big destination club that has something to offer to lure superstars, but BBB was a bit of a miracle that he was both available and healthy in 2021 and we've been trying to replace him for at least 2 years now and struck out on multiple options. I understand the consensus seems to be that Armstrong isn't a star level prospect but there's enough to suggest he's at least a fairly good one. Windsor had some success and Kolt played a few good games but you're overestimating just how much impact these mids will have in year 1. Aside from maybe Sid Draper I reckon they're all much more raw than people think. A lot of defensive running work for guys like Smillie and Langford. Jagga and Murphy Reid need size. Bo Allen might be a ball use problem if he's playing half back.

He was spent by about the 2nd quarter and his skills didn't really translate after the first half of the Brisbane game. He has a nice combination of speed and aggression but if we're being honest he was a mile from AFL level but got games because we had run out of anyone better.

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I think JVR was a good pick for pick 19 and will be a very useful number 2 tall. Jeffo was a bit of a gamble at 15 in not a strong draft, I still like his upside as a useful afl player but he’s not a reason to not take someone you think it’s significantly better. I don’t love JT’s record with tall forwards but I don’t think that’s a valid reason to not take one. Especially over a low sample size.

We gave up 20 as well in that deal. We paid a lot for Dom. 2-> 6 . Richmond are calling North’s bluff on Tauru and saying we aren’t giving you a top 20 pick for that move. You’re doing that for effectively a future 2nd kind of value. F1 -> 11. Trading back in will cost you in this draft. We don’t care if you suck. West Coast suck and want that pick. Essendon aren’t good and want that pick. You have to relinquish the value you got in 2-6 to get that pick or we’ll sell it elsewhere. From North’s perspective - they are taking Tauru no matter what so may as well do it at 6. They have big gaps on the wing, half back, half forward that they can fill with 11. Getting that pick in right now is worth the overpay. And if they suck LDU gets them first round compo anyway!

Im not always wedded to best available. In 2019 I was all for Jackson over Green and Young because we had the Tracc/Oliver combo and quality in a lot of spots. Plus Jackson had a crazy high ceiling. Unless you have 2 gun mids but no key forwards the answer is Tracc from Hogan with the ruck 3rd (sorry Max). The big body powerful mid is the most important player in the game IMO. So if there’s a Tracc level type at 5 then sign me up. What I’m seeing isn’t anyone remotely on that planet if Lalor and Langford are gone. Right now we don’t have the gun key forward and the future of the 2 gun mids is both up in the air. So from a longer term list perspective there’s no push one way or another. But I’m not convinced JVR yet alone Jeffo are the main men up forward so if we think Armstrong is that guy then grab him. Hoping we can recreate the last few games of BBB exactly when needed in 2019 isn’t a reliable strategy.

I’m having a Knightmare trying to work out what he was saying in that tweet!

Gus - Windsor ANB - Kolt JJ - Sharp Harmes - pick 9? I’d like to rebalance the list with more midfield depth than that too but when it comes to pick 5 you got to go best available. I can see the case for Armstrong being the best available.

There's no doubt we really could do with an outside in midfielder with run, skills and pace. But people are seeing Jagga's very good run and extrapolating skills and pace that isn't there. Run is good and we need someone who has vision and smarts, but if it doesn't come with attacking drive or quality kicking just how valuable is it? Breaking down Jagga's game against Vic Country: 0:07 - nothing handball 0:13 - cut back, never looks for the diagonal target, backwards switch (misses target) 0:20 - quality clearance (awful defending) but kick doesn't get over the interceptors 0:30 - great follow up run but handball doesn't connect 0:40 - nice pick up, runs to space, kick hangs in the air, gets spoiled 0: 44 - fumble! 0: 48 - sharp hands 1:04 - unmarked at the stoppage, hacked turnover kick 1:10 - smart crumb, nice throw to set up the shot at goal 1:20 - dropped mark 1:30 - burns quick options, lobs it 40, Sims nearly swallows it 1:45 fumble! 1:49 second fumble, htb! 2:01 - crafty spin out clearance win, kick misses target After that I got bored, a couple of nice pieces of play and finds the footy but there's still no evidence of quality foot skills, creativity or genuine speed. In the same game Langford had one of his lesser performances of the year with his hands full with Smillie, his kicking was a bit hot and cold, but his handballing is both quick and creative, he looks to play on quickly and executes quick kicks and he can take big pack marks. Whilst he doesn't have speed his outside game looks really strong. He's not quick, but he seems to run as well as Jagga and uses it better. He can bomb it at times but usually it's when he's under pressure and generally to a target. Plus he actually has the leg to bomb it long quickly, which as much as we think can be bad Melbourne footy can be really good footy if you have marking forwards who can take advantage of it.. He's a mile more advanced than Sparrow who rarely looks comfortable with the footy in his hands.

It's not so much kicking as decision making. He has a nice enough punchy short left foot kick as well as the ability to roost it, but he makes bad choices by hand and doesn't see options by foot too. I certainly feel like it's time to sacrifice some athleticism and ball winning for quality decision makers. Maybe not if he was Tracc/Oliver level contested beast. But he's not that either.