DeeSpencer

Free running from a stoppage out of the backline, put it on the boot. But yeah, it’s harsh, but I want to see more than the very occasional special things and a few nice things a game. We’re talking about pick 5 here!

Going backwards with pick 8 is the rumour, possibly to GWS or Richmond. I think that’s sensible if get a premium for it. I’m sure we are thinking the same with 9 but I suspect it will take a monster deal to move more than a few spots.

Yep they got Carlton’s future first. Next year teams can trade two years in advance and I think less restrictions on the rounds of picks. I don’t mind the way it keeps teams from selling too much but it’s too restrictive as is

I like Lalor, FOS, Langford and Tauru for 5, unfortunately we might come up one pick short. I don’t mind most of the rest of the top rated mids if available at 9, am intrigued by Armstrong and Shanahan and a few others.

Lack of content and engagement. I’d be surprised if we aren’t 18th on the list of content produced.

No, he might be the greatest coach there is but he’s still been with us for a while now. Not exactly a new voice

No guarantees that we’ll pick one but I think it’s safe to say we’ve done a good hard look at the key forwards in this draft, and the medium forwards like Hynes too. I don’t want to use a top 10 pick on him but Whitlock/s (both of them really) forward/ruck versatility would be handy.

Sam Radford an internal promotion to midfield coach is a bit meh, but they’ve had him at the club for a while so he’s clearly valued. Jones stoppages coach. Not sure Nath was ever a stoppage guru but it’s pretty clear he’s there to sort Viney, Tracc and Oliver’s BS out. Chappy back to the future swung forward. Don’t mind that. Had to get him away from the backs. Fred Bassett down back, hmmmm, think he did his best work as a forwards coach but our backs need a fresh voice and someone who will challenge them to run and take the game on.

Author? Nah, you have to say masthead to make yourself look super important. Also, whilst I appreciate a bit of gossip there’s a fair bit of character critiquing about some of these kids in the middle of the school exam period. Bit of a no no. Media are meant to keep their heads down for the next week or so to at least let the kids get the bulk of their exams done.

My initial thoughts when I saw his 20m sprint time was he plays fast don’t worry about the time. But now when I watch him the feet are pumping but he doesn’t actually move all that quickly. Still a nice player, but probably won’t be a line breaker at afl level. Given the skills and decision making are a bit iffy too I’d be a little surprised if he’s our guy at 9.

Why didn’t he do that more often? Some nice runs from the middle (but the midfield defending is absolutely awful). Otherwise more of the same low impact stuff.

If we pick him at 9 it’s fine. I doubt it will happen but if we use 5 he’ll be ok and I will too. Vanilla can be ok. But people have lost their minds seeing things that just don’t exist.

I didn’t go to a single junior game live this year but I watched some of the champs and a few Coates league games. Yes, there’s things you get a better handle on live but if you watch enough you can piece together what the camera doesn’t show. There’s something like 20 different Jagga Smith games uploaded to YouTube with just about every possession and major moment recorded. I’m not cherry picking highlights or lowlights. My opinion is pretty simple: Strengths: game running+++, very good reading of the play Clean enough without perfect hands to gather the ball. Decent but not special evasive skills. Everything else is needs a lot of improvement and whilst he has the character and work ethic by all reports he’s also spent the year as a full time footballer giving him a significant advantage of those who had school (studies and footy). Kicking, speed, over head marking, aggression and natural flair are hard things to teach too.

We're crying out for quicker skilled mids who play less in straight lines but I don't see the pace or skill with Jagga and you have to take the game forward at AFL level or the ground shrinks and forward pressure just eats you up. If you're heading sideways out the back of stoppages you still have to get pace on the ball and make sure the run overlaps and dissects the oncoming pressure. Otherwise you're just making it someone elses problem. I've done this a few times for Jagga but I'll do it again. 0:05 - backwards handball to a stationary team mate 0:13 - missed kick 0:35 - nice hit up chip kick (FOS great lead) 0:46 - refuses to kick, wide handball 0:50 - nice handball (FOS gets too ambitious) 0:57 - nothing handball 1:04 - cleverly takes advantage when opponent stops, nice hit up 1:15 - fumble, nothing handball 1:25 - nice forward handball (to FOS) 1:35 - no aerial technique, free kick for a hold 1:42 - wins a clearance free running forward, does he stick the foot down and drive it deep? No, backwards handball to a winger 1:53 -because the ball has gone nowhere he's there for the 8m kick (ball should be inside 50). 2:01 -simple handball (good 1-2 from Yze) 2:08 - fumble, missed handball 2:15 - nothing kick 2:24 - keeps his feet in a tackle, nice dish off 2:31 - lazy hacked kick, deliberate 2:45 - nothing handball 2:50 - nothing handball 3:05 - risky but good handball but doesn't get there on the full 3:10 - lucky fumble 3:20 - great running, but kick doesn't have enough juice and gets spoiled 3:30 - well timed release handball 3:42 - complete junk handball to 3 opposition players 3:55 - finally some leg drive, but after staring down number 35 for an eternity he gives the handball without enough juice to hit the target on the full 4:17 - some actual evasion! And a quality goal 4:30 - good crumb, good release handball 4:45 - missed tackle 4:55 - fumble fumble, turnover 5:22 - nice clearance, picks a decent target but the 9 iron kick is very easy to spoil 5:43 - turnover 5:52 - missed kick 6:02 - short to a contest 6:05 - obvious handball but no shepherd 6:16 - burns the 1-2, burns the chance to run to the corridor, dribbles it to the gun along the boundary 6:25 - nice flip of the hips and handball 6:43 - 25m long kick (in fairness, was in to the breeze) 6:49 - goes free kick hunting when he has a handball option The goal was really nice and there's a couple of moments of good evasive skills. A couple. But his handballing isn't in remotely the same ball park of someone like a Murphy Reid. If it's not obvious he's rarely creative. And the majority of his kicking is either nothing flash or just poor, missing targets or hanging in the air. He's a high level game runner and reads the ball off the pack very well. Useful traits. But most AFL players are advanced in those areas and teams spend plenty of time working on their defensive running and work rate to cancel out mids who run hard. If you're a Sam Walsh level freak you can occasionally catch teams napping but the best teams in big moments aren't getting done by one paced free midfield runners. He's going to have to develop like Lachie Neale has - both physically and especially with his decision making around stoppages - because he just doesn't have the natural skills or speed to be damaging on the outside. Even when he overlaps runs he doesn't take full advantage. There's been a big rise of smaller mids this year and some of them - Neale, Serong - really make their living as inside mids. But most like Daicos, Gulden and Zach Merrett carve you up with speed and skills on the outside and I just don't see that with Jagga.

Richmond have been linked to Smillie, there's no way they'd offer us 6 and 23 for 5. If they wanted a second bite of the top group of mids they'd offer that to North for pick 2 and make sure they get the one they want.

Things Butters does: Candy selling and baulks Contested marking Changing the angle of his ball drop and kicks around his body Elite kicking vision High end burst pace Playing on in unpredictable ways the moment he gets the ball There's none of that in Jagga's game

Should be called the Supp list not the rookie list but build a bridge and get over it. Semantics

My guess is our draft board (minus academy etc) looks something like: Band 1- Lalor, (?FOS), Band 2 - Langford, Tauru Band 3 - in some order (?Smillie, Draper, Smith) Allan, Lindsay, Reid, Armstrong If Langford is gone we take Tauru knowing one of the mids will be there at 9. But Langford is plan A and Tauru going at 2 helps with that. Then it’s a matter of what we do at 9. If Langford and Tauru are both gone that’s when we perhaps get creative on how we get the best combination of our third band of players.

Butters comparisons have done the impossible and overtaken people using ‘moneyball’ in the wrong context as my most hated demonland phrase. Smith stays on the move at stoppages at a high level, but he’s almost always going sideways and backward. The few times he runs forward with the ball he gets chased down. It will take Jason Taylor zero seconds to not pick him at 5.

Or he’s a Logan Morris a plays in a flag in year 1, or a Cal Dear and has a great first year. Or a forward line Luke Jackson and is a key part of a premiership year 2. I get the doubts, but watch the tape, he moves completely differently to Weid. Safety has never been a JT factor at the top of the draft. You don’t take Oliver over Parish or draft LJ if you want safety. We also have the 2 picks. If Tauru goes to North and the Saints take at least one non mid we’re choosing the 4th best mid at 5 or the 6th best mid at 9. If they are all such good players then we’ll be fine doing that too!

October form guides: 2019: Jackson at 14, Pickett nowhere 2023: Windsor at 11 2021: Mac Andrew at 9 Twomey is an amalgamator of experts drip fed knowledge. He’s got way too many journo responsibilities during the afl season to be a proper expert. The best mids often identify themselves easily. The talls and special flankers are trickier to place. I think Tauru absolutely belongs towards the top and I’m warming to the idea Armstrong does too.

The only experts are the clubs who draft players in a few weeks time. There’s a few big time prospects right at the top but I feel very confident there’s not 6-8 must draft mids.

He’d be a fantastic pick 9 and a perfectly fine pick at 5. There’s way too much attachment to these midfielders.

Goal kicking: 7/10 don’t entirely love the technique but he has a routine and keeps it straight. Very side on and has moments when he loses distance, he might get the yips if it breaks down at times but generally reliable Marking: 5/10 elevates comfortably, drops more than he should but takes some nice ones too Presenting: 7/10 - does some high level stuff with seeking out the defender and protecting space. Not an innate skill for many young talls. Some nice leads too. Contesting: 6/10 - he’s not a pack crasher but he does fly for his marks and get hands on the footy. I think wanting bash and crash key forwards at 18 years old has been something our recruiters have overvalued. Athleticism: undisclosed/10: can’t find a 2km or 20m sprint. Incredible agility result and that comes through in his play. Really good at ground level inside 50. I can see the doubters saying his very similar to Jeffo but I think he has better mobility and a naturally bigger frame. Doesn’t clunk marks to the same level but he’s got similar traits to Petty (with a natural forwards mindset). There’d be an obvious appeal to have him take over from Petty by as soon as 2026.

There's your answer. Deakyn probably captain. Good get, should provide a lot of leadership off half back.