DeeSpencer

Reid, Wardlaw, Sanders and McKercher will be hard to beat. Nick Watson is value at $18. For our guys its more about who can debut or who can be regular best 22 player and push for noms. Windsor, Laurie, Howes, Turner, Woey are all pushing the best 22 so would love to see a few noms. Tholstrup probably not far off either. The rest will do well to get debuts.

FB: McVee May Hore HB: Rivers Lever Bowey C; Windsor Petracca Langdon HF: Spargo Schache ANB FF: Fritsch JvR McAdam Foll: Gawn Brayshaw Viney Int: Salem Sparrow Chandler Laurie S: Billings E: Tomlinson, Howes, Woewodin Unavailable: Oliver, Hunter, Petty, Fullarton, Pickett (susp) Salo obviously has to prove his fitness and we’ll see how much they rotate him with Gus and Rivers on ball. Howes will have a chance to push his case which then frees another half back in to midfield but I don’t think he’s quite ready. Chandler, Laurie, Spargo, Billings are probably competing for 3 spots and the sub. Woey too. Billings will get his chance in the practice games but I wouldn’t be surprised if the coaches think his defensive and contested efforts need a bit more refinement. Plus he can be an important impact sub. Will Windsor be ready, we’ll know soon. I don’t think they rush Clarry back. I suspect they stick to the initial plan of a slow build for him.

I kind of think Hipwood is underrated now. He wasn't good for a long time despite the media pumping him up, then the media turned on him and since then he's kind of being pretty solid by upping his contested work. Maybe Oscar Allen of those 3 but Watts with more time to develop and also a more natural leap and overhead mark is probably realistic. I think he'll have to either pressure at ground level and/or find some easy footy up the ground and use his skills to really make an impact. He needs a few strings to his bow to cover for not being the tallest, quickest or most physical. Reports of him laying a few tackles at a recent training session are positive.

Mostly invisible when it’s hot but not a bad second ruck? No, I doubt that’s the aim. Specialist goal kicker in the Fritsch mold who hopefully adds a contested/structural tall role as he bulks up over time is surely the aim. Just might be a slow build

Great report, I’ve seen the wings with the backs a bit, I think they’re trying to establish that run and carry connection similar to Hunt and Langdon in ‘21/22. Encouraging the wings to get the ball on the run rather than peel wide for the short kick

Niners 1-6 Niners 30 Chiefs 27

Hmmm why did we lose that accuracy? Could it be because we had no bounce from half back and always went up and down the same wing meaning we always attacked a congested forward line and then had shots from tight angles or from distance? And why have our coaches pushed aggressive run and corridor footy this preseason? Maybe they’ve seen what Collingwood, Brisbane and GWS are doing and think we need to catch up.

Yes I have Schache just about by default. I’d have Melk or J Smith ahead of him as they were last year but obviously both are unavailable. T Mc was picked ahead of him late last year but another year older, another injury and a backline freshen up is required for him now. McAdam, possibly could play alongside Fritsch and maybe Tracc forward and just the one tall. I’m not dismissive of that line up, but I’d rather start the year with a genuine 2nd tall option. I wouldn’t want to load up Max and JVR to effectively do the job of 3 if not 4 players from the very start of the year. My expectations remain very low for the Schach attack but there’s hope that he has a year on continuity with team mates and might find some more easy ball on the lead even if he’s still suss at the contest

The lack of bounce from half back, the lack of speed and class through the midfield and the ordinary forward line have all been issues the last 2 years. We slipped from hard nose defending with a dynamic attacking game to something more like Ross Lyon ball the last 2 years. It's certainly something that has to change.

I have no faith in Tommy, not until he either does something at afl level or dominates Casey for a month. I like the move of him down back and hope he’s heathy and able to push his case in that role, because apart from physical issues he seems mentally shot as a forward. Same goes for BBB. Zero faith he can do anything at the top level these days, his Casey form late last year was dreadful. My depth chart for next man up after Petty and JVR would be: Fullarton (once healthy) > Schache > the old boys > who knows (Jefferson or Verrall)

Max giving the young fella a bath isn’t too surprising. Kozzie deep? And giving Howes the match up as they did McVee last summer. Happy to see Sparrow and Spargo both up and going.

Half full of the Barnaby Joyce special if you reckon McDonald is going to be useful up forward. The only way to be positive is that at least we are running out of forwards at the start of the year this year, that might be better than running out of them at the end of the year as we have the last 2 years. We need Petty and JVR firing at the business end. We need Schache or once he's right Fullarton to do enough to cover the gaps.

I think it’s entirely sensible. 11 teams finished with a percentage of 107-127% last year. The AFL rules work for parity and parity was the outcome. Geelong, the 2022 premiers finished 12th. Anyone tip them to fall that far post flag? They should’ve been 11th if they hadn’t tanked the last game but 12 it was. All of the best 11 teams on percentage last year should be solid again. Something might go drastically wrong for a few of them as it did Freo last year. But that might be a straight swap with any of Freo, GC, Ess or Hawthorn who have the talent to push towards finals. If our percentage range is 105-130% then our ladder position is probably 1st to 12th. Minimal injuries, new players, youngsters taking steps up, quickly adapting to the new game plan and we finish top 4. Too many new injuries, the new guys don’t settle, the players take a while to adapt to the game plan and we look a bit physically and mentally spent we could slip outside the 8. The last 3 years dominant full ground defending and dominant contested ball in a game plan designed around Max, Oliver, Viney, Tracc, May, Lever has made us close to a sure thing for top 6 (once that style was established in 2021). I’m happy to be accused of pessimism but I think it’s time we pull the plug on that assumption before it’s pulled on us by the competition. I’d be opening the game up with more pace, skill and risk and if we’re still great defensively then fantastic, we’ll probably be top 4, but it could just as easily be a step back to go forward year.

I can’t believe he cost us a 2nd rounder and Adelaide used his defection to turn the heat on Petty, but his talent has been evident when he’s been training, which has been most of the time. He’s not the first MFC recruit to struggle in their first preseason with us. Happened with a much bigger name last year

I'm hoping Fritsch and Petty can be seen as far too low by the end of the year. Bowser is definitely too low. And I'm hoping Howes and Laurie are more in the 40's and 50's as guys worthy of games if they get the chance.

Whilst we played 3/4s of the Pies game on our terms we also never game them any incentive to open the game back up, they were always in front and fought it out that way. They did the same v GWS late in the game. That's the issue with grind it out footy, you have to be extremely good at it to recapture a lead at exactly the right time playing that way. More run, more skills, more change of direction and creativity with the players you listed above. But that's not always an easy change to flick a switch. Anyone remember the last time we had a side that made finals a few years in a row and decided they needed to add run and carry?

They were flat before that happened, that's an excuse

Which I think means new best players. It can't be May, Gawn, Petracca, Viney, Oliver. Has to be some of them, but I'd like to see prime Jake Lever go to another level at half back, Salem fit and firing and likely on ball, Gus go to another level, Rivers, Bowey, Langdon, Pickett, Fritsch and when it matters Petty and/or JVR.

There’s reason to doubt. It’s not just forward connection, it’s the ability to cover the full ground at pace both ways. Collingwood showed us up for 15 minutes and that was enough, but every team will be trying. Heck, Essendon ran us off our legs over in Adelaide. We have to get more comfortable defending open in space. Which means no more Lever just spare at CHB or May in the hole. Every defender has to hold their own, including a 3rd tall which is a huge question mark. And we might have to concede 13-15 goals and kick a score not 10. We can’t rely on locking down and sucking the air out of sides. That’s Ross Lyon ball, it doesn’t win flags and it deskills your list. Same goes with the forwards, fast attack means different targets inside 50, which we can do, but also defensive pressure from everyone. But the big one is the midfield - including the half backs and half forwards running and using the ball as well as defending across the ground. That means a shift in skills, speed and work rate. We have some players on the list to do that, but if we have to take a step back to change the way we play - similar to 2020 being different to 2018 (forget ‘19) I wouldn’t be surprised.

Richmond have ruled Lynch out of round 0 and I wouldn’t be surprised if we do the same with Petty. The extra 10 days is just too valuable over the one game in Sydney

Windsor - Hunter (inj) Billings - Oliver McAdam - Pickett (susp) maybe Schache - every other tall injured Howes, Woey, Laurie and Tholstrup are all in with a chance too. But there’s probably going to be 3 fresh (or fresh-ish) faces in the side given 3 likely missing and a fresh group of players fighting for the spots.

Well yes, Schache could end up playing due to the 2 sweetest words in the English language.

Some much better forward entries and some good pace on the footy in those highlights. Playing on inside 50 too which might be an example just to get used to sharing the ball. Windsor looking more comfortable than I’ve seen him the last 2 Wednesdays. That raw pace could really open things up

Using my eyes? The first is a long hoof to Gawn by himself on the defensive team, that’s about the worst inside 50 kick you can make in footy. The second involves Langdon having to stop and prop only to chip it what I assume isn’t 15 with a kick Tracc makes look good. Harder to no just how bad that is without context but it’s not the free flowing ideal connection you’d prefer to see