DeeSpencer

We kept the Nairn interest under wraps until fairly late. I’m still intrigued by who is next on our board if none of Robey, Cumming, Farrow and X Taylor get through. Might be wrong but still have a sneaky suspicion JT has another option if needed. Maybe one of Taylor, Harley Barker or Mitch Marsh.

Our best offer - GC future first and 37 - probably doesn’t beat either deal. We effectively gave up a pair of second and some to get pick 8 from GC. So we’ve already done that kind of deal. It probably isn’t smart to want one of those picks anyway. We’d just be drafting our 3rd best choice at 7/8. Better to wait and see if someone falls to the 20 mark and is available for a cheap trade up. Or wait until 37, where there might be a good option especially if bids keep chewing up picks.

Neither side giving up a heck of a lot shows you the picks aren’t overly rated but still rated enough to climb up. If I had to guess. Sharp for Essendon at 9. Thredgold for North at 11. Wonder where the bid for Dean comes. West Coast not getting their hands on 9 might tempt them to bid early. Otherwise Richmond or it will fall to us.

I wouldn’t be at all surprise if we took Talor Byrne with pick 37

We are in a talent accumulation phase of a rebuild, there’s no rush to draft to fill holes. Drafting a B grade average mid is a great way to burn a pick too, even if the guy has a long career it’s still not a great pick. If that’s where they rate Sharp there’s nothing wrong with not taking him. We’ll have many more better drafts to find A grade mids. Also Langford will be our primary accumulator. We need another in and under type but it’s not a rush.

I hope we aren’t drafting for need at just about square one of a rebuild. What I do think we are doing if we pick Nairn is drafting a player for the way we see the game going, especially under a new coach. He’s not a contested pressure player. At least not on the deck or at this stage of his development. But if the game keeps shifting to transition based we need guys who excel at running, marking and using the ball quickly.

Pick 14 - Jonty Faull. Twomey Nov Phantom 25. 12 - Gothard. Twomey Nov - 28. 16 - Green. Twomey 25 16 - Rowston. Twomey 30 17 - Michalanney. Twomey 25 18 Sheldrick. Twomey 35 Brown. Twomey 23 Nairn from 25 drafted at 12 is entirely in line with results that happen all the time.

There’s no way we trade our own pick next year. 2027 who knows, it’s a Tassie year, but odds are we keep it. Trading the Suns pick isn’t totally crazy. It’s safe to assume it won’t be earlier than pick 10, probably north of 14 after some academy guys next year, even if they take earlier picks to match. Swap it with Carlton for pick 9 (likely to be 13) or 11 (15+), that’s not crazy. The odds that after drafting 2 guys we have a 3rd must have guy worth more than that future Suns picks does seem low tho. Not zero, but pretty low.

I’d question just how independent those reports are. A lot of copying of home work in the draft media I’d suggest. But Twomey said something interesting on gettable that a lot of clubs had Nairn highly ranked but no one leaked it to the media as he was all their secret.

Not to derail another thread talking about Cal's process, his eye for talent or his haircut I'm not sure there's too much to read in to when he does and doesn't boost a player up the rankings. I think if there's something tangible to go with the mail he gets from recruiters like strong performances late in the year or outstanding test result he'll move a guy. Especially if they're likely to be in the top 10. But at some stage he has to somewhat stick to his order otherwise he's just robbing the content that will be in his actual phantom draft and discrediting his ranking entirely. He didn't change the order much in his latest update. Dovaston moved up, NHH and Greeves back a bit and Nairn from 29 to 25 which indicates clubs have him earlier.

Sounds that way but we’ve been strongly linked to 5 guys, plus Duursma and CDT will be gone. So if it does go Rich (Robey, Taylor) and Ess (Cumming, Farrow) there’s a question mark on who we pair with Nairn. Obviously that is based on Twomey’s mail and Grlj and many others could jump up.

So piecing it together we can assume our draft board looks something like: Duursma, CDT, Robey, Cumming, X Taylor, Farrow with Nairn in there somewhere. Dovaston, Pickett and others behind. So ideally we need Grlj or someone else to go top 6 (excluding bids) to push another of our top prospects down.

I've said in previous threads, this is the song. Nothing would get our players ready to run through a brick wall like these guys.

In fairness to the club he looked great at training in 2024. The problem was that by half time against Sydney it was clear that was due to our trainings dropping way off! In general I think it’s best to reward your players with contract extensions earlier than later but geez we should’ve waited to see it at afl level. The sub rule gone and 5 on the bench should see Bill get a decent go this year. Especially if one or both of our draft picks aren’t high half forward/mid types. Lindsay and Langford on the wing which then moved Langdon to half forward really ruined Bill’s chances of shuffling up the order last year.

Sounds good in theory but I just can’t imagine any of those teams putting first rounders on the table to really come up. Even with the Suns first rounder going back the other way. North maybe, but they need talls and this draft is very light on them. Essendon already have 2 picks, I doubt they do it. The Eagles the same, lots of rumours about them trading up from 13 but surely not risking a first. Dropping back from 8 to 13 with the Eagles and banking an F2 might be the best we can do.

Laurie’s long stay on the list was kind of accident that came from him having an excellent preseason in 2024 and looking good in preseason games = 2 year extension signed on the eve of the season. By half time of opening round against Sydney he still looked a mile off AFL quality. He’s slow and has no aerial game, there’s little to suggest half back would suit. High half forward is the right position for him. But he has to show he can win the ball around stoppages and can be a crafty user. He wins the ball at Casey, and every now and then he shows the quick hands, clever kicking and smart decision making but it hasn’t translated.

I think they slimmed down afl media a few years back and Twomey shifted to trades during the season with Get Table and the live draft event coverage. They can sponsor those draft and lead in shows which brings more cash in than articles.

9 delisted players in Cal’s top 30 of 2019. No sign of Kozzie Pickett. afl.com.auCal Twomey's 2019 Phantom Form Guide: October updateAFL.com.au's draft guru Cal Twomey ranks the best young footy talent in the land

I disagree, if we wanted pure goal kickers it would probably be Pickett and/or Dovaston and Ludowyke. Nairn's value is the way he can improve our ball movement by hard running, smart leading and link up play as a half forward and wing. Especially as a guy who kicks it inside 50 well.

The rookie me clips filmed at ground level actually provide a really good look at his set shot. At 0:53, 2:03 and from behind at 2:23. Yes it probably could come down and out infront a few inches to be smoother. But he seems to have a very repeatable action that’s also in a straight line. That’s the basis for most goal kicking results. There’s plenty of quality in his field kicking too. Especially when combined with quick decision making. I think the crucial factor with Nairn is determining how raw he is as a country kid, possibly (I can’t verify) without a quality school footy program and with lots of development with both skills but particularly with athleticism. He has a big tank, how much speed and strength has he done?

23.8 in the SANFL and 9.3 in the carnival. I think the kicking in to the man on the mark is a strange outlier from his first hit out in state colours. In general he kicks very straight and it’s less of a ball drop problem and more an awkward gait. Nairn reminds me of another awkward skinny medium forward who grew up on a farm outside Victoria who had a rare ability to time his jumps for marks. But that outcome is so preposterous I don’t even want to name him.

You can watch them on the sanfl play website with a free trial. They’re very good. He just keeps racking the ball up especially in space. He uses it quickly and accurately. Sometimes he mucks up kicks but when he doesn’t it’s on the money and not bombing it. The standard of footy is not great. You might be able to message the bloke who does YouTube cut ups to do one of them.

Nairn’s been one of my favourites. As I said in an other thread. Who has 16 marks in a game, even if it’s sanfl colts? My main comparison for him as a half forward is Tom Lynch (Adel). High endurance, really smart on the lead, beautiful clean hands and a super quick decision maker including kicking inside 50. The difference to Lynch is he played 2 excellent games on the wing at the end of the SANFL colts season and racked the ball up for fun. (I was so intrigued by him I watched these 2 games on the sanfl website). He looked every bit the natural wingman. A little taller and left footed but kind of plays the way Sidebottom does by constant movement to dangerous spots. Can he play on ball? I haven’t seen contested ball from him. But I have seen super clean hands around the pack from the wing. Downsides: not overly quick, not key tall size, doesn’t jump up in packs, doesn’t provide much pressure or tackling at ground level. A fairly one paced linking player with a top 10(ish) pick. Seems a risk. But a JT risk is often worth taking.

5:13 in this video. They spend all year ranking the 50-60 most draftable players they have, because they never know where there picks will fall. That’s the job. I’m sure in practice they do zero in on guys around the range of their picks. Especially extra research on the top ones and then getting some likely targets at later picks. But the smartest thing to do would be to keep true to the order be flexible about moving up or down when opportunity to maximise talent presents.

PSD Do you have a read on Koby Evans? Obviously has to get his body right and most likely the eagles match any bid but in terms of upside I’m not sure they’ll be another big body explosive mid who will go late in this draft.