DeeSpencer

We’ve targeted no one so far so I doubt that’s the case. If Freo hand us 13 and a bunch of other stuff that lets us end up with a top 10 pick and a solid second pick (top 25, ideally better) then Im fine with that. But the market for top 10 picks seems pretty slow right now. Since the Port pick went towards JHF there’s been no public traction

He moves a lot like a young Jarryd Roughead to me, maybe with some shades of a slightly shorter Daniher or Harry McKay when it gets a bit erratic. Good size, good athlete, knows how to get involved up the ground and in space. I'm not convinced I'd pull the trigger as high as pick 2 but I reckon if North got the 2 picks at the top they'd be very keen to shore up their spine.

The price they'll pay in terms of dollars especially for Bruhn and Ollie Henry is sickening. Not to mention it just drastically decreases the risk of getting a dud in the draft when you don't have to draft. I'm not 100% sold Bowes is a best 22 player but pick 7 will almost certainly be and they'll lock Bowes in at 600 x 4, rather than 800 x 2 and that's happy days. With hindsight we should've gone harder at Cerra I think. I can see why we wanted to work quietly in the background rather than upset the 22 but we should've been front and centre at him. Both then and now it's time to turnover the fringes of our list. I really don't care if it's the most uninspiring collection of delistings, pick 80 trades or state league players I just can't see how holding on to guys who the coach has no intention of playing (and IMO rightly so) makes us better.

Bowes gets a 4 year deal with Geelong and has had a lot of major injuries. He doesn't need cash because clearly he was guaranteed the 2 years at 800k. He needs coaching and physical development to get back to quality AFL footy. Selwood, Dahlhaus and Higgins gone, Smith, Tuohy, Dangerfield, Duncan, Menegola can't go forever. He'll take a preseason or two to learn the system and get his body cherry ripe and then play 100 games straight is my guess. Dunstan was just a depth piece. Bowes is choosing Geelong to rehabilitate his career rather than risking Essendon doing the same with more game time but inferior everything else.

Jackson has a lot of growing up to do too. He’s a big talent but a lot of its potential as well. He’s has a cruisy start playing back up to Max. Has a heap of work to become the ruck/midfielder he can be. JHF is a top flight midfielder/forward, the most valuable role in the game. Had a stinker of year in a disaster or a club but he’s still got next Danger, next Tracc type player written all over him. Port are getting a steal if it’s 8 and a moderate future first.

They can try that. I’d say watch for the Friday afternoon news dump on Grundy

Holmes comes in to their 22 and Parfitt replaces Selwood. Parfitt’s as good as Selwood was this year, if not better with a clear run at it. Pick 7, Bowes, Henry and Bruhn all develop in the 2’s to replace Rohan, Smith, Duncan etc. Key forward the worry. Bet they end up with Cadman.

Let me introduce you to a little thing called the Kelly for Salem trade. Pick 2 in this draft gets you a guy with bad hammies, a moderately paced half forward, a tall forward that no one is really sold on and the Eagles don’t need and a nice outside mid who is too Greek for one poster on demonland. Theres a few West Australians who will be around at pick 8 who won’t go home if the eagles are ordinary for the next few years.

Henry has more currency than Bruhn IMO. Bruhn hasn’t done much to really validate his talent at first round level. But 18 and change for one, future 1st and change for the other should get the deals done.

West Coast could trade 8 for Freo’s 13 and North’s pick if they’re really down on this draft. Wouldn’t be crazy. Slide back twice and own next years top 25 Doubt they’re in on Jackson, but it might help us if they dangle 8 and Port’s first and make Freo work harder

GWS and Sydney but not good ones. North might end up with pick 8 and could trade 8 and their future first but I can’t imagine they’d be too keen. Have to imagine the Eagles would want to use a top 10 pick. So they’d need to find a team with 2 of them to give us one. Gold Coast should have 5 and 7 but they’re Gold Coast!

They can, but they deliberately said they would be less likely to do it this year. Almost like they knew this was coming

Shocking at AFL gives suns too many picks Suns give up a great pick in Scott brothers approved salary dump Great pick goes to Geelong with Scott and SHocking! Perfect

It’s just outrageous than a guy who’s overpaid by 400k per season needs pick 7 to dump him. Even if it’s a future first back (which seems unlikely). Should be pick 35 at most to dump him. Gold Coast allegedly are trying to stop making the same mistakes but it sounds like they’re keen to make more. Meanwhile Geelong have a never ending salary cap.

If a team asks for a top 25 pick and we get pick 27 there’s no way in hell we should suddenly offer 19! Once they have Tom Mitchell lined up they’ll do the deal for 27

He was that good, then he got injuries, they had a cheaper alternative and now they’re moving on. We tried to do the same to Tom McDonald after 2020, we’re trying to do it with Tomlinson, that’s footy. The Treloar situation was a bit different because they asked him to be back ended, then slandered him in the press when they wanted him offloaded.

So your advice to Collingwood was to trade Grundy in 2019 when he was All Aus and they’d lost a grand final by a kick a year prior? The signed him in January 2020, there’s only so much earlier you can sign a guy. We got Oliver and Tracc midseason 16 or so months out but not sure it was a huge discount, they’ll be on close to 7 figures too. I’m not doom riding Oliver and Tracc. But I think we have to be careful with Tracc’s injuries to keep him fresh. Brayshaw everyone knows my thoughts on. Salem and Fritsch have 4 left I wouldn’t see them certainties to last.

At least one of our long term deals will probably go to (bad) if it’s hasn’t already. That’s without mentioning medium term deals like Lever, Gawn, Tomlinson, Brown, McDonald. The Pies had 3 choices: - Trade an All Aus ruck a year ahead of time - Accept a very ordinary late first round compo in a mess of a draft when he left to Adelaide - pay him market value They’ve had him for 2 more years and will be left with 1.5M dead cap but they’ve get a similar worth pick now than if they just let him go as a free agent in 2020.

I assume this is referring to Marlion Pickett snatching his soul in the ‘19 grand final. Wasn’t that keen on the contest before then and has only gone down hill since

We did? I thought we were ordinary in just about all of those games, relied on our backline and defensive grid stone walling teams and generally put them away with a burst of pressure/contest stuff they couldn’t handle. Apart from the GWS Witches Hats we didn’t have anything like a complete performance in the first 10 weeks and our ball movement was stagnate in most games. That said, speed really wasn’t an issue. Run and creativity were the problems.

Gawn and perhaps English are the only players on that list coordinated enough to genuinely trouble a matured Jackson in marking contests. 8cm or so is fairly easy to defend if you’ve got positioning, leverage and athleticism. A lot of them might trouble him in the ruck but once he hits full strength I don’t think being shorter hurts. Hawkins forward, Nankervis, Mumford, you don’t need height for most ruck contests. And he keeps his leap it won’t be an issue at all. Either way I expect him to be a top 3 ruck from ages 23-30+ if that’s how he gets used. But it’s the Blicavs stuff that’s key. Blicavs this year went from Mr Fix it to an absolute weapon. He’s a beast at tagging powerful mids because he’s just so large. He provides another long kick option that keeps Jezza and Hawkins at home. And he can ruck from the midfield that means Stanley can sit wherever he wants. He completely changes the basic maths on where you can use players. He’s worth more than any ruck aside from a dominant Gawn or Nic Nat. Every other ruck can be nullified by a half decent veteran. If a team is a ball movement team Blicavs rucks and Stanley sits at CHB. If a team is a stoppage team then Blicavs tags the key mid. If a team is built on intercepts Blicavs becomes the long kick target away from the intercept defenders. His impact on games massively outweighs his pure talent.

I’d say he’d last 30 years doing that. The real danger to his career is if he has to limit himself to facts and avoid click bait. He’ll be replaced in 5 minutes by the next ex player desperate to stay relevant if he did that

Might have to be a future 3rd, we can probably dump 50 at the draft for a side wanting it. Either way, Bedford + something for 30 probably works for both sides

GWS likely have pick 30 coming in as part of the Hopper trade. 30 for Bedford + 50 seems about right

That’s my point, from Dingley the Hawks can own the Peninsula, I bet they’re going to try. There will probably be a short bus straight to the Kennedy centre from the suburban rail loop if/when it’s built too. Meanwhile Casey is much further from Melbourne, further from anywhere desirable and the cross roads back to non Hastings part of the peninsula are a mess,