Little Goffy

Is it just to obvious? We're Back

Actually, since it's the 'Jeff Kennett is a bastard cup', I'd like to revise my prediction upwards by about seven million. I'd completely forgoten about that - this game is the Inaugural Jeff Kennett is a Bastard Cup, something that we can all get behind, even those of us who thought he was 'the right bastard at the right time' can still acknowledge he is a bastard.

Number of wins: 9 Average losing margin: 20 points Average winning margin: 12 points B&F top 3: 1. Green 2. Mclean 3. Bate! Leading goal-kicker: Bate, 47 goals All Australian representatives: Green, Mclean Top votes at the Brownlow: McLean Best first year player: Bail (will get the most game time) Breakthrough year (first-year players do not count): Obiovusly from above, Bate, but the other will be Dunn. Disappointment of the year: Grimes missing the majority of the season through injury Biggest area of improvement: Forward pressure, some progress on clearances (esp around the ground) Surprise packet of 2009: Jordie Mckenzie. But also, Robbo, who will rub our noses in it for forgetting him. Headline of the year: Demons tear apart top four (after knocking Blues and then Saints down in rnd 21/22) Best win of the year: Round 21, Carlton, to deny them a top four finish, after which they exit in an insipid elimination final. Worst loss of the year: North Melbourne at the dome in round 19. Final membership numbers: And some extra for fun: Debuts: 9 in order: Spencer, Bail, Cheney, Bennell, Strauss, Meesen, Watts, Blease, Jurrah Delistings: Just 4. Meesen (contracted or not), Wheatley, Newton, Cheney (redrafted as rookie) If Newton is lucky he'll get traded (for a token pick) to a club in even more need of a forward prospect than us at the end of this year, e.g. Sydney, Adelaide, Essendon. We're holding trade stock for 2010 Gold Coast entry, and we have so many players who it would be unfair to dispose of before they've had a proper go, 2009 will be a pretty stable year. Robbo, Whelan and McDonald will all be fighting fit for another year anyway.

We've become a self of our former shadow!

I'll tip 36,912. I'm bringing a few extra though, so might be more like 36,917.

If not the club, then Demonland could introduce a 'Kaspersky Award' for best defender each week, or better still, anytime a defender holds their direct opponent to zero goals. Nothing gets past Kaspersky.

But that's the trouble - Russian names are never as hard as everyone expects them to be, so eveyone ends up second guessing themselves. It took years for people to stop calling Marat Safin "Saffeen".

Thank YOU! Come to think of it... my work could use a consolidation of IT security systems - post merger. And they really should have the best, since they do a lot of work with very confidential material. I'll get onto it, perhaps alongside spruiking Mates of Melbourne as a business-to-business networking environment, since they are also a business services company.

Impressive, Casey seems to have everything underway before we have time to properly complain about anything - the moment someone mentions it, "yep, that'll be getting done next tuesday". So... Geez I wish Casey Fields would hurry up and get a [foolproof premiership winning plan] installed, it really sucks that they haven't got one.

I'm tipping Bate, then Green, then Wonaeamirri. Then a couple around 20 goals each. Watts will be considered properly conditioned by about round 15, and will have kicked 20 by the end of the season as well, having already secure the leading goalkicker award for Casey.

There's belief in this corner - I frankly think anyone who is still clinging to hopes of a priority pick needs a good reality check. The challenge is going to be to hold onto that through the first 12 rounds - all finalists except for Richmond, and Port at Aami and West Coast at Subiaco. If we've got four wins by halfway through the season, mark us in for finals!

I wish to also take this illustrious occassion to formally add my note of hatred for Brent Harvey. Nasty little man. I think it will be more like Demons by 14, than 14 goals. But it'll be just as much fun that way, don't worry about that! And Yze Magic, I am very impressed by your 100% prediction strike rate - it is quite true that all of your predictions have been made.

I'm afraid I can't get behind betting on a routine basis - family stories and all. But I'm all for start of year crazy multi-bets - for instance Demons to make 8, plus Grimes to win rising star, plus Mclean to place finish in Browlow, plus Roughead to win Coleman. = approaching a million dollars for a ten dollar bet. Gotta make it so outlandish you don't expect to win. That's the important part - never expect to see your money again.

Tom was an AIS academy graduate, and was one of Champion data's tips for top 25 in that draft (of course, Champion Data makes those tips early in the year, bu they are pretty good usually). And you've got Emma Quayle mentioned above as having him as a smoky for top 25. And that was all despite him being so very young - a year later he's still about the usual age for a draftee. Only Blease and Watts are significantly younger than him on our list, despite seven new draft picks plus some rookies coming in. I think the club would be outright derelict to push him on right away, even if he has an ordinary year this year. Both in the sense of giving him a fair go and in giving the club the best chance of putting together another good tall. He's still got three seasons left to win the Rising Star Award!

The Kaspersky logo is pretty good for logo purposes - it's distinct, it looks very much web/technology style, so it's on message, and it's just odd enough to be memorable. I imagine it's original context would have been online, where it would suit quite nicely. The colours are also kind of similar to the corporate colours for the place I work... I wonder if there's any belly-dancing functions planned soon?

I really loved the way Geelong had such an even spread of goalkickers - in 2008 they had just one individual haul of seven and one of six, while in 2007 it was even more balanced - NOT ONE individual tally of more than five, and several games won without anyone kicking more than two individually. Perhaps the most impressive was round 19 - passed 100pts without having a player kick more than two. I'd love to see a situation with a handful of guys kicking three or four week in week out, but I think with the accuracy of guys like Watts and Maric (and lets not forget Wonaeamirri also has a ridiculously high % for shots on goal!) I think we'll get to see the occassional game where one guy shoots thorugh seven or eight goals. In any given week, any given quarter, we will have someone who looks like a 100 goal plus player. Opposition defenders will be dealing with an impossible game of 'whack-a-mole' to try to keep them all down. Main goalscoring options circa 2010 - Watts Bate Maric Morton Pettterd Wonaeamirri Davey Sylvia Dunn Green Johnson One goal each, plus a few extras, and we're rioting.

Hmm... there's been the bet-ezy addition to the platinum sponsors on our corporate page, and I can't say for sure but I didn't think powerade were there before, at least not at gold partner level. Believe it or not I actually check fairly often! Hankook1 has demonstrated another great reason why they signed on first- they get to tease us with the second, and every time they do, our response is 'Oh Hankook, your tyres are so wonderful and service so good, all at a reasonable price, please tell us more!'. Anyway, I'm interested in the two lines of rumour going on - one along the lines of a community based partner, the other (pretty reliable, since it's Hankook;) ) suggesting an international company with a low profile but established market in Australia. Interesting, very interesting. A bit of thrill, frankly. At this rate, we will be the only club to record a profit on 2009!

Now updated to about halfway through the month. I've skipped a couple of minor articles/repeats.

F: Dunn Bate Wonaeamirri HF: Davey Miller Sylvia C: Morton Bruce Petterd HB: Grimes Martin Green B: Bartram Warnock Garland FOLL: Johnson Mclean McDonald INT: Spencer Rivers Moloney Jones Emerg: Frawley, Meesen(!) Buckley Noting that it has been confirmed now that Jamar is on the Long term Injury list and Spencer promoted. Emergencies selected for position coverage in Meesen's case, recognition of performance in Frawley's case, and a bit of both for Buckley. Dunn is playing specifically to shut down rebounds and see if the opportunity to gain turnover goals sparks up his counter-attack. If Wona can't play then basically everyone in the right column except Garland move one 'forward' and Buckley comes in. Bate and Miller will alternate a bit, but damn, what I wouldn't give for a star quality goal-kicking CHF some time soon... The fifteen goals we need to win will come from - Bate 3, Wonaeamirri, Dunn and Sylvia 2, Davey, Miller, Morton. Petterd, Mclean and Johnson 1. Last I heard the Kangaroos were 'full strength' so the specific initial match-ups are looking to me like; Simpson - McDonald Harvey - Grimes(!) Watt - Dunn C. Jones - Bruce Hale - Warnock Wells - Bartram Petrie - Johnson McIntosh - Spencer What a shame Nathan Thompson and Shannon Grant have retired and cut about a third off the 'Roos attacking options.

Nice touch. But seriously, a young team with a few missing and injuries during the game, a week after a cyclone game in Cairns, playing in heavy conditions again, holding it even until the last quarter against a top four side at full strength? Following a decisive win last week, and two narrow losses previously. Let's not fool ourselves, this has been a pre-season series well above expectations, and we'll be going into the season with a real sense that this year will see much happier times for Demon fans.

I'd be particularly interested in what the ratio of Melbourne/Dogs fans is a ) at the start of the game and b ) at the end With enough sponsorhip in place to ensure survivial for a couple of years yet, the attention begins to turn to the big growth strategy. Will we have an extra 50-100,000 supporters in five years, just 'cos of Casey? And DeLaRue is the guy at Hankook who practically made the sponsorship happen at that end, by all accounts, so EXCELLENT plug!

A lot of this year will be about Rising Stars. I'd like Jack Watts to play a few games towards the end of the year and get a Rising Star nomination, but still be eligible to pick it up in '10. I'd like Jack Grimes to grab a podium finish in the Rising Star award this year. Nominations for Maric, Bail, Strauss, Blease and Spencer are all possible. How good would that be? Seven Rising Star nominations in a year - eight if you reckon Jurrah will be ready for AFL in '09! That would be the dream, other than that, I think we can make a credible case for not being in the bottom four, and I think the 'less than four wins' scenario is about as likely as us making the eight. It's certainly easy to think of a selection of teams which could come below us - Freo-fall, Wet Toast, Slideny, The Crankeroos, Lessendon, Failelaide, and Vossbane are all looking shaky right now, and could easily have crappy seasons.

It's gonna be a bright sunny day at full time, don't you worry about that

First, yes it is a major sponsor, a third tier sponsor we'd be talking about a digit less. Secondly, a mid-ranked player is typically less than $200,000 a year - Brendan Fevola is barely more than $700k a year. Finally, $700k a season is $700k a season. Are you suggesting that they would have paid an extra $350k to have the four months of off-season over 08-09? Frankly, I'm struggling to understand your attitude there, except for possible sour grapes? That is very much what it looks like, I'm afraid.

I used to be pretty sure the HUN gave us a bad run... frankly it was clear. But lately... What seems to be going on is that the Age is giving us a good run of in-depth high-exposure articles (led by Flanagan's ongoing series), while the HUN seems to be doing a little more of the small articles on us these days. For this year, the jury is still out I think. My gut feeling is that we have a reasonably good media year coming.