Little Goffy

Ahhhhhhhh, I have a single odd habit that seems to only come out at the end of excruciating close games of football. One, single, clap. I did it once at a bar years ago and the bar went quiet for a moment. I'm not a big or noisy person in general, but give me 20 minutes of tension and somehow it all comes out in one single gesture. The other big occasion I recall doing it to the surprise of everyone around me was the win at the end of the season, against Essendon, in 2005. There's a distinct resemblence. Anyway, the Demons march on, winning a game against a respectable opponent that had studied us closely and played the right way to stifle us, and we had a couple of players out of sorts a bit. But we still won.

Cheeky from the AFL website.

Nine goals to one since halfway through the second quarter. Strangely, it doesn't quite feel like it. Maybe it was the mood of all the people writing off our season earlier. Important final quarter. I'd be perfectly happy with a dogged, mean, scrap from here, as long as we prove we can do it right to the siren.

Ahhh football, Milera killing us all night and then slaughters a kick to gift us a goal.

So, quick refresher - anyone out there still want to claim Marc Murphy is overrated? If he was on our list right now we'd have the big piece we're missing and would be legitimately anticipating a grand final.

I have very mixed feeling every time I hear the expression 'this is better stuff from the Dees'. It is always a relief, but also always a reminder that we've just had ten minutes of shambles!

Game very much not the way we like it, congestion and chaos which we aren't dealing with too well. We'll be wanting that '15 minutes in heaven' again, to break the slog.

Well, Collingwood's loss keeps the door open for us to charge into a top 4 spot...

It is a long time ago now, but I still recall his surge of form in the final half-dozen rounds of 2014. I've always had more patience with him than most, for no really good reason. But here's hoping his 100th game is the marker where he rediscovers that form, because half a dozen or so really good games would be much appreciated right now!

Maybe we can all take a breath and reflect instead upon what a genius Neale Daniher is, and what an incredible achievement it was to have the Demons be contenders through a series of wild swings and chaos in the club's administration and a general failure to provide resources. Think of Neale Daniher. Feel a little better. Then maybe tip some coin to fight MND while you're at it.

I think in order to be serious about finals, we do need to have more wins against top-4 teams. So, with that in mind, if North win and Hawthorn lose by big margins, that'll add a win-vs-top-8 for us. Really, all it takes is for North and Essendon to win a couple more, while Port and Hawthorn fade out, and our credibility for finals will climb right up without us even having to win any more games!

Can't ever like Essendon winning, but it suits me just fine if Sydney get the late-season stumbles. We'll beat the Swans on our day, on pure merit whatever the circumstances, but for the comfort of it I'd like to have a couple of indicators in advance that we'll crush them completely and I wont have to stress too much.

When he left Hawthorn he had played 12 years of football for 4 premierships. Clearly he had done the maths when he signed a three-year contract. Glad to have him at our club. Getting him was one of those moments that change the mood of the club, a little drop of medicine for MFCSS. And is Angus says he's priceless, that is good enough for me.

Y'know, I had an odd thought after reading this. Carlton is on one win, with percentage roughly on a par with our lowest ebb under Neeld. But there's something in the 'shape' of that percentage that struck me. In 2013, Melbourne suffered 7 massive losses - with margins of 148, 94, 90, 95, 83, 122, and 95. In 2018, Carlton have so far only experienced 2, maybe three such losses, depending on your line: 86, 109, and 72. And it isn't a case of Carlton's super-low scoring influence the percentage, as 2013 Demons only managed an extra 5 points per game. So, it would seem that Carlton are just stodgily losing by boringly substantial margins every single week. I'm genuinely curious, what does that mean? Impact of 'the great draft thinning' for the new teams back then? A genuinely more even competition now? Carlton being held together a little by their half-dozen excellent veterans? Or are the Demons the only club left that is capable of dishing out a proper walloping?

Assuming neither GWS nor Melbourne bomb out in the next few weeks, surely GWS V Melbourne will be the final game of the home and away season. It could completely reshape the final 8 and would have the fans of as many as five or six clubs all watching riveted.

Oh hell. Oh hell. My brain just broke. I looked across some more fixtures and have to say it - There is a real possibility that at the end of the season there could be 6 teams on 14 wins, stretching from 3rd to 8th. A slim chance, but a chance. It is conceivable, just barely conceivable, than in round 23, the Demons and Giants will be playing for a top-4 spot for the winner and 9th for the loser. Now that it has been shown possible, I feel it is inevitable.

Allirghty, I got bored and restless about our prosepcts at the same time. So, by process of elimination, with 5 rounds to go - North, Essendon, Adelaide: we are 20% or more and 1 win ahead of them. To pass us, a team from this group would need to win two more games than us out of the remaining five. Two wins for us would put us out of all these team's reach, realisitically. Ok, whatever. Hawthorn and Geelong: Same wins, 10% margin. Long story short - we must at least match the win-loss results of whichever of these teams performs worse over the final five rounds. One of the three teams will miss finals. Geelong - have the Tigers, but also the Lions, Suns and Dockers all at home. Hawthorn - Dockers, Bombers and Saints, Sydney at the SCG. It could end up being hugely important that they play eachother in round 21. Geelong look home, they'd have three games they'd be confident of winning, and would gain certainty of a finals spot by beating Hawthorn. Tell y' what, a final 5 rounds with no travel and three home games against interstate teams... that's rosy. Hawthorn are a little shakier, with more credible opponents. Essendon may even fancy their chances at passing Hawthorn. It is conceivable that that could only win two, but we wouldn't want to be relying on that. A Fremantle win over Hawthorn on sunday means it could still be possible to finish in the 8 with just 12 wins. All other plausible variations on the final 5 rounds make 13 wins necessary.

Speculating, but my gut is saying that the reduction in list size will be one side of a deal that sees the introduction of mid-season rookies to be taken from the 2s. As a back door to then slip in mid-season trades. Because one thing we all know, is that the media and AFL HQ are convinced that the biggest spectacle in the game is hyperventilating about stars like Franklin, Ablett, Dangerfield, and Folau... The idea itself, of being able to recruit a vfl player to cover injury, isn't so bad provided that the glaringly obvious need to invest a lot more in the '2s' levels across the country.

1. Every remaining game is winnable. 2. This home-and-away season is going to be an exciting ride right up to the end of round 23. 3. Umm... we're just ten points short of being equal top of the ladder. (beats head against wall) Ok, a better 3. Our players are getting a whole lot of chances to learn to win high-stakes games against quality opponents.

Just so shameful. I could accept it as a ruthless exploitation of a rule and circumstances, but the sheer comedy act of the 'I'm a pelican' dance Dangerfield did, followed by the gloating smugness after. He could've at least had the decency to keep his head down. (not in the Selwood way). Meanwhile, I'll be properly angry again if Hawkins doesn't cop anything for the not-in-play, high-contact, deliberate hit to Fritsch. But the way things go, it'll be discarded by the MRP in less time than it actually takes to watch the footage.

Whaaaaat? Anything other than maximum focus on winning every game is madness. Lewis has had some less than stellar games this year but is overall a pretty good contributor who is in the current best 22, particularly with the injuries we have. Are people really already sooking their way out of trying for the rest of the year? More comfortable to fail if you just say 'oh, never mind, there was never a chance anyway'? I mean, I'm a pathetic loser myself in most things, but to wish it upon your football club is just bad form.

So I guess North wont be sneaking into the 8 on percentage. Meanwhile, has there ever been a round where I've wanted more upsets? Gold Coast, Carlton, Dogs, Brisbane. Setting up to be a thriller at the SCG. Come on you Sunnies! ?

Checks scores for Sydney v Gold Coast at quarter time. Yeeap. Checks scores for Sydney v Gold Coast halway through the third quarter. Whaaaaat?

I'd argue that all these players were drafted too high on the basis of having specific attributes, but lacked 'completeness' - their main strength was their only strength. Like we were recruiting for the second-string x-men. Possibly why I so love Angus Brayshaw. Is he the outright fastest, the strongest, the best kick, the best mark, the fittest? Nope. But he would each in turn beat every one of the players listed in the opening post in every category except the single feature those players were notable for.

I start to worry when the 'marketing gurus' begin to talk up a player's identity as a commodity. I'm not naive about it, but even a rich crop can only be harvested to a limit, before you begin to drain the soil.