Fat Tony

Hopefully he doesn’t get hit by a Russian rocket before Thursday night!

I would be sending Oliver to De Goey at stoppages, as he is the key for Collingwood beating us. Oliver has been kept quieter than normal in the last two games and I think Pendlebury or Cripps will otherwise go to him at stoppages. Oliver is a good run with player and has done jobs on Cripps (R1 2020) and Bontempelli (H2 GF 2021).

MCC is 9am

May looked like he was a bit ginger after taking a mark with 6.40 on the clock in the last quarter and then went off to the bench. I think he is ok but is clearly battling late in the year.

May pulled up sore in contest at the end of the Hawthorn game, so he might be better off with a rest.

Goodwin also said that TMac is moving better than at any time this year. A mobile and agile TMac could be the difference for us come September.

Is Harmes injured? He didn’t play on the weekend.

Laurie did some good things but overall he looked like a player not up to the speed of AFL on Sunday. Laurie needs to be well above average with disposal given his lack of pace, role and size. His handballs hit the ground and kicks were intercepted and spoiled. Laurie is the obvious omission for Fritsch and he is not a versatile choice of sub. It will then be interesting how we structure the forward line. Melksham is playing a great role as the negator to the oppositions best interceptor. Smith was fantastic at competing in the air and on the ground. Van Rooyen is looking in great form. And Fritsch is best closer to goal where he is elite at finishing. I think that each of Smith, Fritsch and Melksham are going to have to take turns pushing up the ground because there will be around 10-20% of the game when Gawn, Van Rooyen, Smith, Fritsch and Melksham are all on the ground at the same time. Petracca also needs room to play closer goal at times, so we will need players to sacrifice for this to work. The other big call to make is Tomlinson. He is way too slow and while Lever is better as the third tall, we can't be playing a passenger in the second tall role to facilitate it. We could go back to Smith even though he does not possess the smarts and synergy with the other defenders. I would strongly consider Daniel Turner, who plays a lot like Tom Stewart and is far too good for the VFL. I feel the criticism of his game against Casboult at the Suns is a touch unfair because Casboult's overall impact was not that significant and he is one of those players that is too big and strong for most defenders. Hibberd would be another potential inclusion but for concussion and Bowey and Salem need to improve to be locked into the side in September. We could also go with a smaller and faster backline with Hibberd, albeit Lever becomes less effective.

I thought the McCartin bump was incidental and justice was done at the MRP. Footy is a tough game and head injuries happen.

It’s not that left field but the coaching staff see TMac as a better forward because he is an ordinary field kick but a straight kick for goal. TMac will need to be mobile and agile enough and be timing his overhead marks to get back into the AFL.

Happy to win by 27 against my most hated club but thought we were just ok yesterday. The win was pleasing given Petracca had a shocker, Oliver had his least impact for a long time and Kossie was hopeless. I thought we lost centre clearance and that was a key source of goals for Hawthorn. Tomlinson looks too slow and is a real worry in September. While Lever is better with another key defender, the defence looked at sea at times when the ball came in quickly. Oliver looks like a player who lacks confidence and touch and is not looking to take territory. He is playing like he played five years ago, looking to handball and not bursting forward. We need him to get back to exploding forward in the stoppages. Smith is a very good player and we can forget using him as the sub. He competes in the air and then is first to fight for it on the ground. I prefer him forward but he is great at being able to switch around and we might need him to go back if TMac earns his way into the side.

While Demonlanders are right to point out the impact of playing 3 talls in defence and our record with May, Lever and Tomlinson in defence together, they are ignoring that Tomlinson has been poor and subbed out in his last two games. Against Adelaide and Hawthorn, Tomlinson has exposed as very slow. The matchup against the Lions is particularly concerning, with Daniher and Hipwood being too tall and fast.

May looked like he pulled up sore in the last quarter. I wonder if Disco Turner isn’t without a chance of replacing Tomlinson. I think he’s worth considering.

Hard to see FA compo or priority picks being ahead of the Eagles. But they will be gifted Sanders some how.

Goldstein, Chol and McLean should be names on the whiteboard.

I agree that we have had a softish draw. However, the article is a bit misleading in that it spells out out all our double up games except for the Lions. And Richmond would be currently 8th if they had have knocked us off twice this year, so part of the reason our draw looks soft is that we have won more games than we have lost.

Without Ben Brown and playing only one ruck means we get more even spread in terms of defensive transition running and pressure acts. But without having two 200cm plus targets, IMO we need to have a setup where all our forwards who can compete in the air.

In 2023 we are 6 wins & 5 losses when we have 3 midget forwards (Kossie, Spargo and Chandler) and 8 wins & 2 losses (both by less than a goal) when we play just 2 midget forwards. The balance of our side is out with too many small players, particularly forward of the ball where players need to compete in the air in outnumbered situations.. We are already playing 2 small wingers and Bowey in defence.

Pickett, Spargo and Chandler is too small. Jordon had a bad game on Saturday and has been inconsistent this year with his role changing, but he has played some good games this year and I hope we stick with him this week.

The highlights of Nate Caddy are very impressive. Skilled and balanced. Good overhead. I like Duursma a lot but you don't need to be Jason Taylor to see that Caddy also has a lot of talent.

Fat Tony's List of players we should consider: Elliot Yeo Liam Ryan Jeremy McGovern Todd Goldstein Mabior Chol

For those minutes we would be relying on Melksham and Smith (who are playing in key position roles) and Petracca to provide a contest. It is not ideal, but TMac and Brown are not fit or in form and Grundy makes our forward line suffer in terms of mobility. We are also missing Fritsch, who I would actually bring in for Jordon/Wowoedin when the time comes. I would actually like to see us change our method of entry on a slow play to occasionally kicking torpedoes. These will be either mongrels dropping short or barrels going long. Either way, it does not help the intercept markers.

Fat Tony's Side for Hawthorn FB: Tomlinson May Hibberd HB: Salem Lever Rivers C: Langdon OIiver Hunter HF: Neal-Bullen Van Rooyen Pickett FF: Chandler Melksham Petracca Fol: Gawn Sparrow Viney Int: McVee (B) Smith (F) Brayshaw (M) Jordon/Wowoedin (M) Sub: Bowey I think the key is getting the balance of the side right, not getting the best 22 players on the park. That means one ruckman, three tall defenders and only two midget small forwards. Grundy isn't giving us enough as a marking option and isn't quick enough to apply pressure as a forward. Van Rooyen has proven himself to be a decent second ruckman. Bowey loses his spot to Hibberd in the starting back seven but gets maintained as the sub. This is just on form and I would like to see him given a quarter as a forward or wing if required when he comes on. We might find he has more flexibility than we think. I think we are too small with Chandler, Pickett and Spargo in the same side. While Spargo has decent VFL form, I just don't think the balance is right with three midgets. I want Smith to be given a job up forward to replace Petty. He is not as good in the air but is more mobile. I think he is our best bet to win the flag now. Is Jordon injured? He certainly didn't play well on Saturday but I think he is still the best option at this stage because he can play in a variety or roles. Wowoedin is the one to replace him if he is out injured. Tomlinson is the beneficiary of Petty getting injured. Lever is able to intercept better against the third tall.

Carlton kicked 6 goals in the first 3/4 despite our midfield being beaten. The backline was good with Smith and he blanketed the resting ruck with some great spoils due to his closing speed. I like Smith better forward but he’s been pigeon holed as a sub due to versatility. The perfect sub is our 23rd best player.

I agree Smith looks better forward. But the synergy with Smith and the other defenders was better last night. Carlton had 15 shots from 53 entries, so I don’t think your view on Smith’s impact really stacks up on last night’s numbers. My view on Smith is that he did a good defensive job on the resting ruckman for 3/4 and then switched forward to take a great mark and kick an excellent goal. I thought Bowey and Salem had much poorer games.