Fat Tony

How many players in the AFL have elite decision making, elite skills and leg speed? You are basically advocating that we should trade in or draft Nick Daicos, Josh Kelly or Izak Rankine. I am keen to add some pace and class, but you need to be realistic. If Mark Blicavs, Dylan Grimes or Alex Rance are on the draft table, you take them.

Collingwood were actually very efficient given they had a lot o difficult shots at goal.

Peeved we didn’t chase Hill last year. He was the difference in two finals.

AFL clubs are full of short-term thinkers – with coaches, recruiters and list managers all wanting to win next year in order to keep their jobs. As a result, and because clubs fall often fall in love with the next year’s young talent and make moves to jump up the draft board, the interest rate for future AFL draft picks is over 20% p.a. and can be as high as 100% p.a. Typically the cost to buy a current first round pick is at least a current second round pick plus a future first round pick to. (The Suns swapped #27 for a future #11 as an example of how expensive it can be!) With the interest rate being so high (and the power of compound interest) I think it would be possible for an AFL club to delay first round picks for two consecutive years so as to build a bank of draft capital and then utilise two first round picks every year into perpetuity. That seems like a good investment for an AFL club, where the aim is to win as many flags as possible over the long run. (That’s what I want anyway.) It is also pretty clear that very few first year players are capable of playing in an AFL finals team. How many 19-year old draftees could you see playing in the grand final? (Not even the number 1 pick was selected for GWS in the preliminary final!) From the 2022 draft only Ashcroft, Sheezel, Fletcher and Phillipou would definitely get a game in a final and maybe Humphry and Wardlaw. That’s it, with only Ashcroft and Sheezel really being capable of making a difference in the result. Given our significant draft capital due to Jackson leaving and the fact that our current best 22 has very few holes going into 2024, I think we should be rotating most of our 2023 draft capital into 2024 picks. Look at the deal GCS are making for #4, which is mooted to be worth picks #10, #17 and a future first-rounder (with a third-rounder coming back to the Dogs from the Suns). This would be an incredible deal for the Suns and if we were to make similar deals, we could hold as many as four first round picks in 2024. With this in the bank, we would have the ability to spend two first round picks every year into perpetuity while maintaining our draft capital in future years. I call this the Macquarie model. I also believe that trades are usually the best use of draft capital, as they tend to favour the team receiving uncontracted players and because trades can better fill holes in the side. Essentially uncontracted players generally cost 80 cents on the dollar in terms of their value in picks. They also supply players who are ready to help win a final next year. This is even more so the case given the impact of free agency. The other thing is that the AFL draft is still quite inefficient (although recruiting has improved over the years). This is because you are selecting 18 year olds who have never played against men. Good recruiting teams, like Melbourne’s and Geelong’s, have proven they can find AFL talent with second/third/fourth round picks or rookie selections. While not using first round picks at the draft will impact the quality of a team’s young talent in the short term, I am no sure it really matters to winning next year.

These are all good points, which is why I am in favour of us going for a forward/ruck like Chol or Casboult, who could play as second ruck or fill in if Gawn gets injured.

Van Rooyen, Petty and TMac all have the ability to take the ruck minutes when Max is off. But the main issue is finding a decent backup if he gets injured. I think this will be hard to find because no decent ruckman wants to sit in the VFL. At least using an option like Casboult or Chol in that role means they could also be selected as a ruck/forward.

Summary of Ralph's article: Hawthorn has shown the most interest in Mabior Chol ahead of North Melbourne, Adelaide and Brisbane. Chol’s contract is around $425,000 a season for two more years and clubs might have to offer him three or even four seasons. He would likely be available for a future second-rounder. The Hawks are after a key position forward who can play ruck after Jacob Koschitzke nominated Richmond. The Suns will Nick Malceski as a development coach. ---- The AFL would need to check off any St Kilda-Essendon free agency-trade swap involving Jade Gresham and Dylan Shiel. Clubs cannot trade a selection in one deal then trade it back with another. St Kilda would not be allowed to top up Gresham’s salary to ensure they secured first-round compensation, but Essendon would be allowed to pay some of Shiel’s deal. --- Western Bulldogs are leading the race to secure pick 4 from the Suns. The Dogs are offering picks 10, 17 and a future first-rounder — and would likely secure a third-rounder back from the Suns — which adds up to around 3500 draft points if the Dogs finished eighth next year. At this stage North Melbourne’s suite of end-of-first-round picks are not enough to get pick 4. Even if the Roos offered up their current pick 14 and two of those end-of-first-round picks their trade package would only come up to 3000 points. Adelaide and Melbourne will then be keen to secure pick 10 in the event of Suns-Dogs trade, with both the Crows and Demons have multiple second-rounders. (Adelaide has picks 21 and 24 to the Demons’ 25 and 33.) --- Sydney has no recourse to dock co-captain Callum Mills’ salary after the Mad Monday incident that saw him tear his rotator cuff. The Swans could cite him under the code of conduct but the maximum fine under AFLPA rules is $5000. Mills is on a six-year $800,000 per year deal to 2029. Richmond has an official minder with a group of players who have been on an informal footy trip in Thailand. Coach Adem Yze strongly defended the practice over the weekend, saying he made some of his strongest bonds with teammates on footy trips. ---- Andrew Mackie confirmed that all of Tom Hawkins, Rhys Stanley, Gary Rohan and Zach Tuohy will play on at Geelong. Brandon Parfitt decided not to explore rival interest. The Cats are playing hard ball on Esava Ratugolea. --- Clubs looking at Shaun Mannagh, who kicked six goals and had 27 possessions for Werribee in the loss to Gold Coast in the VFL Grand Final. The former Ovens and Murray league star is 26 and in his 21 games this year he averaged 25 possessions and 1.9 goals a game, including four goals and 40 possessions against Southport and seven goals from 25 possessions against Sandringham. Clubs believe he could play as a pressuring forward who wins his own ball at AFL level.

There are no perfect footballers. Obviously we need better decision makers in our team. But we also need players with speed, height, toughness, strength and endurance. I would prefer Mark Blicavs than Greg Williams in today's game because transition running is so important. With Petracca, Oliver, Viney and Gawn on our list, forward connection will always be an issue for us and so the territory game is really the best plan for us to win. (We could make some minor tweaks to the way we play but Goodwin's system is mostly correct.) So we need to recruit players to compliment our midfield, which generates quantity more than quality entries. That means better wingers and forwards who can win one-on-one contests and convert from tough distance/angles.

I see a bit of Nathan Jones in the way Sanders plays. Sanders and Reid are probably the most likely to have an impact at AFL level next season.

Blind Freddie could tell you why we were treated differently Redleg.

No competent developed ruckman wants to be a back up though. We either get a D grade ruckman like Naismith or a B/C grade ruck forward like Chol or Casboult (or both).

Duursma looks fantastic.

I think you are dreaming. Underage footy is irrelevant given Salem will be going into his 11th season. We know what he can and can't do. He's not a great runner, which is why we played Jones and Lewis on the wing in 2018/19 and then recruited Langdon, Tomlinson and Hunter. Jordon, Brayshaw and Harmes were given more chances on the wing in recent years. And I don't think he is carrying excess weight.

Casboult would be worth a discussion as well. At least with Chol and Casboult, they could also hold the fort if Max goes down in the short term.

Salem is not quick enough and does not have good enough endurance to play wing. If he could run, we would not have recruited Langdon, Tomlinson and Hunter. Salem needs to get back some power/drive in order to be able to break lines and kick further or he will playing half back flank for Casey. Your solution to our problems (Salem's lack of drive off half back and our wingers being ordinary kicks) comes up with a worse outcome because we will breakdown defensively due to Salem not being a good enough runner.

Lynch would be expensive both in terms of salary cap and draft picks, is coming off a foot injury and will be 31 next year. I think Petty/JVR could give us a better (or similar) return next year to a fit Lynch and we could boost our team in other areas.

I think Taberner has too many weaknesses in his game. He is a decent mark and kick, but poor on the ground, slow and a poor pressure player. We want to target forwards with elite finishing, the ability to compete in the air, speed and defensive intent. They need to tick at least three boxes (if not all four) and Taberner is a cross for two boxes.

Excellent post. Oliver, Petracca, Viney and Gawn are the reason for our success and the reason for our failure. None of them are great kicks but they are fast in close, tough and great at winning the contested ball. There collective skill sets don't suit a slingshot game style, which is why we play the style we do. I thought the Petty injury was critical to our chances this year. And then Melksham and Van Rooyen being out hurt us even further. That's not to say our tactics were perfect. We needed to try to hit up short targets inside 50 more often to create a bit more uncertainty for the defence. I think our list actually has enough talent in the forward line. (Of course we could do with more.) Our wings are ok but lack penetration and are not a relative strength versus the top sides and Salem has gone from a plus to a negative.

Hawkins would be much better than Riewoldt but I am all for bringing in veterans. I would also like us to ask Isaac Smith if he is really retired.

I am not sure our midfield has the kicking skill to play in a more precise fashion. Petracca, Oliver, Viney, Hunter, Gawn, ANB, Langdon, Sparrow, Brayshaw and Rivers are our top 10 inside 50 kickers (accounting for more than half our entries) and none of them are elite AFL kicks. We obviously need more skill on the outside, but Petracca, Oliver, Viney and Gawn are the core of our team and will continue to provide more than a quarter of our entries. We could encourage them to hit up shorter targets, but they are not very good at that and this potentially opens us up to counterattack. Rank Name Games Average 1 Christian Petracca 25 5.88 2 Clayton Oliver 15 5.47 3 Jack Viney 24 5.29 4 Lachlan Hunter 24 3.71 5 Max Gawn 22 3.41 6 Alex Neal-Bullen 25 3.40 7 Ed Langdon 25 3.12 8 Tom Sparrow 23 2.96 9 Angus Brayshaw 24 2.88 9 Trent Rivers 25 2.88 11 Brodie Grundy 17 2.71 12 Christian Salem 16 2.56 13 Bayley Fritsch 17 2.53 14 James Jordon 18 2.39 14 Kysaiah Pickett 23 2.39 16 James Harmes 9 2.33 17 Jake Melksham 13 2.31 18 Kade Chandler 23 2.17 19 Taj Woewodin 4 2.00 20 Charlie Spargo 14 1.93

Tomlinson had a reasonable season. I think he needs a specific match up (slow) but he is a good kick and I could imagine him with a premiership medal next year.

Here is my take: With Gawn and May turning 32 next year, we need to put our chips into winning the flag in 2024. This might be the last big chance with our current list. I assume our salary cap is very tight. Firstly, I feel we must commit to Petty as a forward in 2024. He showed so much against Hawthorn and Richmond and is our best option in that role. While Petty might be better defender than forward, it is close, and he actually had an inconsistent season as a defender. Joel Smith looks better as a forward than a defender and would benefit from a more settled role next year. I like his ability to play either tall or small and with Melksham out, he should become our main defensive forward option. Melksham is 31 and, given he has done an ACL, I would probably make a tough decision because he will miss most of 2024. Grundy will exit and we need a plan for a) a first ruck if Max gets injured and b) a forward/ruck to play alongside him. We don’t have major holes on our list other than ruck depth. While the forward line could do with a bit more class, Petty, Van Rooyen, Smith, Fritsch, Neal Bullen and Pickett is a decent core of AFL talented players. Shane McAdam could also be added to the mix. We just need a bit of luck with injury in order to get synergy and forward systems working better. Salem is a worry and looks to have lost his power. Salem was never a big line breaker in the past but he gave us no drive this season and is only kicking just over 45m. That said, because Salem is a popular player within the club and has three years on his contract, I am not sure a trade is possible. While his form could improve next year with a decent preseason, I think we have to assume (in terms of list management) that he will never get back to 2021 form. Langdon was found out in the finals series and we should be looking to upgrade on the wing roles. He lacks a bit of skill and size and is not that quick. Hunter was better than Langdon in the finals, but is getting on and we need to plan for his replacement. I feel we are too small over the field with Bowey, Salem, Langdon, Hunter, Viney, Pickett, Chandler and Spargo in the same side. We need to try and get taller, more athletic players in wing, half back and small forward roles to get better balance. I am confident Daniel Turner will be a good AFL player, particularly if we invest games into him at the start of the season. Howes looks like he has a lot of talent in the VFL and will be an AFL player if he can get a bit more intensity. He is not Salem’s level in terms of kicking and I am not sure where on the field he plays at AFL level. It could be high half back, wing or high half forward. I think Woewodin showed enough to be encouraged. But I am not sure he has the tank to be a winger and probably won’t be big enough to play as an inside midfielder. Laurie does not have the athletic traits we really need; especially given the issues we have across the field with size. Jefferson looks a mile off AFL IMO. There are too many weaknesses in his game (strength, no ground level game, tackling, chasing and endurance) and I will be surprised if he makes it. I would play him in defence next year in the VFL because it is easier to develop there. Harmes has declined and we would benefit from moving him on if someone will pay him. I would like to keep Jordon, but only on the right contract. He had a poor final against Carlton but he is still likely to give us more than a replacement. Dunstan should be delisted due to injury. Ben Brown looks finished. It would be good if he would retire and give us some cap relief. TMac would have to get 2021 fit again to get back into the side. I thought he was close to finished in 2020. Can the soufflé rise three times? Tomlinson was good at times this year but really needs a slow match up. We should look to trade him to get salary cap room and find a developed, replacement depth tall defender (someone like OMac). The effective interest rate on bringing forward or delaying draft picks is around 20% p.a. (i.e. it is costly to bring picks forward). We should only be willing to go up the draft order or bring forward our picks if we have a specific hole on our list (which we don’t really have currently) and/or we are targeting a specific talent. Otherwise we should be also willing to be patient and push our picks back and draft best available talent. The effective discount on player trades is around 20% (i.e. player trades almost always result in the team receiving the player paying less than full price in terms of the value in draft picks). The draft is inefficient and the player we want might not be on anyone else’s draft board. It makes no sense to push higher up the draft if we will land the same player. Taylor and co have shown they can pick up talent without early picks (i.e. McVee, Chandler, Fritsch, Bowey, Daniel Turner, Van Rooyen, Petty and Rivers). There are not may 2023 draftees that will make a difference to who wins the flag next year. There may be only 3-4 players in the draft pool who could move the needle. So what do we need to do from a list management perspective? Find new homes for Grundy, Tomlinson and Harmes and offer Jordon a fair contract and try and convince him to stay. Delist Melksham, Dunstan, Hibberd, Kye Turner and Deakin Smith. I would be going for a forward/ruck that can play alongside Max but also fill in if Max gets injured. I think Chol or Casboult make the most sense of the available options. It appears we will land McAdam. We should bid for GCS pick #4 but not over pay. I think our future first round pick is less attractive than other clubs and so we might struggle be the best bid. (We might be able to get the crumbs of any winning bid i.e. WBD’s pick #10.) If the price paid for pick #4 is exuberant, we should look at auctioning off our pick #5. If we use pick #5, take the best available but I would prefer not to take another very small player. If Harmes, Jordon and Dunstan all depart, I would look at taking on Travis Boak on a low wage. We are going to need depth in the midfield (especially with Brayshaw under a cloud) and I doubt we will find better in the short term.

I think we’ll want to get Tomlinson out for salary cap reasons if someone will take him and then look for a cheaper depth defender. (Who knows it could be Oscar McDonald 😂) Turner will be better next year IMO and really needs to play AFL. And while I hope we commit to Petty as a forward all season and start Smith forward, we have some flexibility.

Can he take an overhead mark? I think our side already has too many small players in outside roles.