Fat Tony

Here is my take: With Gawn and May turning 32 next year, we need to put our chips into winning the flag in 2024. This might be the last big chance with our current list. I assume our salary cap is very tight. Firstly, I feel we must commit to Petty as a forward in 2024. He showed so much against Hawthorn and Richmond and is our best option in that role. While Petty might be better defender than forward, it is close, and he actually had an inconsistent season as a defender. Joel Smith looks better as a forward than a defender and would benefit from a more settled role next year. I like his ability to play either tall or small and with Melksham out, he should become our main defensive forward option. Melksham is 31 and, given he has done an ACL, I would probably make a tough decision because he will miss most of 2024. Grundy will exit and we need a plan for a) a first ruck if Max gets injured and b) a forward/ruck to play alongside him. We don’t have major holes on our list other than ruck depth. While the forward line could do with a bit more class, Petty, Van Rooyen, Smith, Fritsch, Neal Bullen and Pickett is a decent core of AFL talented players. Shane McAdam could also be added to the mix. We just need a bit of luck with injury in order to get synergy and forward systems working better. Salem is a worry and looks to have lost his power. Salem was never a big line breaker in the past but he gave us no drive this season and is only kicking just over 45m. That said, because Salem is a popular player within the club and has three years on his contract, I am not sure a trade is possible. While his form could improve next year with a decent preseason, I think we have to assume (in terms of list management) that he will never get back to 2021 form. Langdon was found out in the finals series and we should be looking to upgrade on the wing roles. He lacks a bit of skill and size and is not that quick. Hunter was better than Langdon in the finals, but is getting on and we need to plan for his replacement. I feel we are too small over the field with Bowey, Salem, Langdon, Hunter, Viney, Pickett, Chandler and Spargo in the same side. We need to try and get taller, more athletic players in wing, half back and small forward roles to get better balance. I am confident Daniel Turner will be a good AFL player, particularly if we invest games into him at the start of the season. Howes looks like he has a lot of talent in the VFL and will be an AFL player if he can get a bit more intensity. He is not Salem’s level in terms of kicking and I am not sure where on the field he plays at AFL level. It could be high half back, wing or high half forward. I think Woewodin showed enough to be encouraged. But I am not sure he has the tank to be a winger and probably won’t be big enough to play as an inside midfielder. Laurie does not have the athletic traits we really need; especially given the issues we have across the field with size. Jefferson looks a mile off AFL IMO. There are too many weaknesses in his game (strength, no ground level game, tackling, chasing and endurance) and I will be surprised if he makes it. I would play him in defence next year in the VFL because it is easier to develop there. Harmes has declined and we would benefit from moving him on if someone will pay him. I would like to keep Jordon, but only on the right contract. He had a poor final against Carlton but he is still likely to give us more than a replacement. Dunstan should be delisted due to injury. Ben Brown looks finished. It would be good if he would retire and give us some cap relief. TMac would have to get 2021 fit again to get back into the side. I thought he was close to finished in 2020. Can the soufflé rise three times? Tomlinson was good at times this year but really needs a slow match up. We should look to trade him to get salary cap room and find a developed, replacement depth tall defender (someone like OMac). The effective interest rate on bringing forward or delaying draft picks is around 20% p.a. (i.e. it is costly to bring picks forward). We should only be willing to go up the draft order or bring forward our picks if we have a specific hole on our list (which we don’t really have currently) and/or we are targeting a specific talent. Otherwise we should be also willing to be patient and push our picks back and draft best available talent. The effective discount on player trades is around 20% (i.e. player trades almost always result in the team receiving the player paying less than full price in terms of the value in draft picks). The draft is inefficient and the player we want might not be on anyone else’s draft board. It makes no sense to push higher up the draft if we will land the same player. Taylor and co have shown they can pick up talent without early picks (i.e. McVee, Chandler, Fritsch, Bowey, Daniel Turner, Van Rooyen, Petty and Rivers). There are not may 2023 draftees that will make a difference to who wins the flag next year. There may be only 3-4 players in the draft pool who could move the needle. So what do we need to do from a list management perspective? Find new homes for Grundy, Tomlinson and Harmes and offer Jordon a fair contract and try and convince him to stay. Delist Melksham, Dunstan, Hibberd, Kye Turner and Deakin Smith. I would be going for a forward/ruck that can play alongside Max but also fill in if Max gets injured. I think Chol or Casboult make the most sense of the available options. It appears we will land McAdam. We should bid for GCS pick #4 but not over pay. I think our future first round pick is less attractive than other clubs and so we might struggle be the best bid. (We might be able to get the crumbs of any winning bid i.e. WBD’s pick #10.) If the price paid for pick #4 is exuberant, we should look at auctioning off our pick #5. If we use pick #5, take the best available but I would prefer not to take another very small player. If Harmes, Jordon and Dunstan all depart, I would look at taking on Travis Boak on a low wage. We are going to need depth in the midfield (especially with Brayshaw under a cloud) and I doubt we will find better in the short term.

I think we’ll want to get Tomlinson out for salary cap reasons if someone will take him and then look for a cheaper depth defender. (Who knows it could be Oscar McDonald 😂) Turner will be better next year IMO and really needs to play AFL. And while I hope we commit to Petty as a forward all season and start Smith forward, we have some flexibility.

Can he take an overhead mark? I think our side already has too many small players in outside roles.

I think we need to look at upgrading both our wingers and Salem looks cooked. But we’re potentially losing a lot of inside midfield depth, with Harmes, Jordon and Dunstan leaving and Brayshaw in some doubt. And I think we really need to try and win it next year given May and Gawn are both 32 next season.

Boak has played well tonight. He’s still a solid AFL midfielder.

I think Goodwin did a good job through the season. We experimented more but suffered from injuries and poor goal kicking when it counted. That said, we were very poor disciplined last night and disorganised. Four forward stoppages, we had no nominated ruck when Max was off.

We actually had 23-22 shots against Sydney if you count complete misses.

The lack of discipline and organisation was terrible. Frees against when kicking for goal or the game had stopped, 50m penalties, and four times we had no ruck in the forward stoppages. Players slipping in the centre square. Langdon had two terrible finals and looks a D grader. Salem has no drive and power. Finished. Jordon was hopeless. Sparrow fumbled too often. Fritsch’s misses cost us in both finals. Our set ups and centre clearance were ineffective and we didn’t defend well one on one. That’s four finals losses with more shots at goal.

The discount and the points table needs addressing. The points table runs out to around pick 70 and the average number of players getting drafted recently is around 50.

I think I would prefer to get Silvagni than Melksham based on the injury, age and Silvagni’s ability to play second ruck.

We just need to kick straight and win clearance. (It would be nice to hit up a few more targets inside 50 as well.)

Makes sense. We get crucified by the umpires every week.

Time to focus on Carlton now. Friday night will be brutal and we need to be ready. We will win the flag if we can tweak our game a bit and maintain intensity for four quarters.

You might be right. His output has declined this year but that could also be due to being shifted out of the midfield. He has still looked to be a good kick from the Port games I’ve seen this year.

I would look at Travis Boak as a short-term option. Great team player and example and could give us depth in the midfield.

Cannot see it happening. Thommo is too slow. We would be better off playing Petracca forward more and getting Sparrow and Jordon to play more in the midfield. Oliver, Viney, Sparrow and Jordon can win enough ball. Rivers can also go inside for a stint. Fritsch, Pickett, Petracca, TMac, Smith and Chandler can provide enough chances to kick a winning score. Our average score against has been only 59 in the last four matches.

I think Chol is a good option.

I think it will be difficult for us to attract a decent pure ruck as a back up. Nobody wants to be a certain VFL player. We are better off going for a forward/ruck who could play alongside Gawn and fill in as a ruckman if Gawn gets injured.

Key points Sydney is set to swoop on dual All-Australian Brodie Grundy as the Swans prepare to buck their own trend by trading in multiple ready-made stars to steel themselves for a shot at premiership glory. The Swans will also go hard at Grundy following the retirement of ruckman Tom Hickey and it emerged on Saturday they were the frontrunner to secure his services. While Sydney’s salary cap remains tight, the departures of Lance Franklin and Hickey should free up roughly $1 million. Rival clubs noted on Saturday that with so many long-term contracts the Swans would also have the flexibility to move money around. They have locked away Nick Blakey (until 2031), Callum Mills (2029), Isaac Heeney and Tom Papley (2028). Sydney is armed with picks No.21 and No.29, which will be both bumped back about five places due to matched bids on draft night and compensation. You can use this link to see the whole article: https://archive.is/

The risk of pressing so high is that we get caught over the back occasionally but our defence was excellent for the most part. But Collingwood only had 15 shots for the whole game and just 9 shots after quarter time. I wouldn't be changing the way we defend. The issue with our tactics is much more with our ball use inside 50 (and our forwards competing better to get the ball to ground).

It is Monday morning and time to move on. As callus as it sounds, we need to stop focusing on the Brayshaw/Maynard incident and get ready for another monster battle. Just a few tweaks and we will this flag.

23 according to the AFL app.

Daniel Turner will be at least a good AFL player and is the answer down back. I think Chol is worth going for because he can play ruck/forward.

Can he take a hanger? It’s difficult to play as a deep forward without a leap against an AFL zone defence.

We had 23 shots to 15 on Thursday against the flag favourite. We just need average efficiency in front of goal to fix our game.