rpfc

34 minutes ago, bush demon said:

Apologies if this already posted somewhere. (Brodie In)

https://www.afl.com.au/news/992852

He is neither in nor out.

He’s Schrödinger’s Brodie…

19 minutes ago, Sydney_Demon said:

What you haven't allowed for in your calculations is the mimumum 5% profit margin that the bookies take on every 2-way bet which meams the true odds are going to me more like:

1.155 x 1.68 x 1.47 x 1.785 = 5.092 = 4-1

That's of course why the betting agencies push the multis, as they get this margin on every bet that goes into the multi which adds up to about a 19% take across 4 bets. And of course the margins on more exotic bets are much much more than 5%!

3 hours ago, binman said:

It's not the swarm that makes them vulnerable.

We swarm too - it is at the heart of the method we adapted from the tigers (I dislike hardwick, but he deserves huge credit for changing how the game is played) - pressure and get numbers to the contest, win the ball and sweep forward in a rugby like line and have players run hard to get ahead of the ball to create options.

The pies perhaps commit more numbers in that swarm, but what makes the pies vulnerable is the risks they take and their defensive system.

They expose themselves to turnover because they flick it around trying to get the ball to the outside and when they get it outside take on high risk kicks - often into the corridor.

Looks great when it works, but place the kicker under enough pressure and/or get numbers into the corridor and they turn it over, and often in very dangerous spots (and their handballs to feed it out can be turned over too).

But it is the second vulnerability, very much interconnected with the first, that really hurts them.

Their defensive lines pushes so high on transition, and in one flat line (ie no goal keeper) that when they turn the ball over they are at massive risks of goals out the back on the counter.

That is all true of all teams using that swarm method, but our defensive sytem protects us on turnover.

We have been experimenting with a similar approach to thstvof the pies in the last 3 games, which is a big reason why we have scored so much - but also why we have leaked so many goals.

The dusty goal where he was left alone in the goal square was the perfect example. We rarely give up such goals.

I'm sure we will revert back to something more like our normal defensive system come finals, including greater use of tempo (we saw a bit of borh in the second half against the tigers) - but the new normal will retain elements of the method we are experimenting with atm.

We can play both styles. And a hybrid.

Hard to see how pies can adjust theirs so late in the season given they havent experimented in games with alternative methods.

The Pies literally leave their line at the smell of a turnover to crowd the footy and win it. That’s what I mean as the swarm - you can it’s a ‘high HB’ but it’s a massive gamble at the point of the possible turnover to win it. We, and other teams, wait for the turnover and then commit numbers to the counter. I see it as very different. And my read is it is a real tactic to avoid 1-1 contests where possible because they don’t have there cattle to win them.

With us - I see the last few weeks with just a loosening of the shackles on turnover and commitment to forward movement and the corridor on turnover and stoppage play. It’s hurt us defensively but who cares because it has got us going and given some confidence that we can score to a new forming forward line.

I agree we are more balanced (hard not to be), and that we can fall back on our defensive press and front half pressure should our minds be right.

Personally I think we will drop one where we get jumped by momentum at some point. Maybe the Blues.

1 hour ago, JimmyGadson said:

Forget the odds. Odds reflect ladder position, home-ground advantage and not formline. 

I've given my evidence and I think it's reasonable to suggest we'll drop one game, maybe two. But as I said, post this weekend's results including another injury to a Carlton mid and also Buddy, it changes the outlook for us. 

Cerra has been in unreal form and he now joins Walsh, Kennedy, McKay and Silvagni who will all be missing against us. 

Are you seriously suggesting Buddy playing his final send off game at the SCG would be favourable compared to him not playing? 

Demonland. Wowsy.

I don’t think that the general confidence in beating NM, a depleted Carlton, lowly Hawthorn or a Sydney who’s season might be over really deserves a ‘wowsy’… 

Especially, when you are criticising ‘Demonland’ of being optimistic…

And no one deserves a ‘wowsy’

3 minutes ago, old55 said:

 

I’m fine to rest him. I just don’t think he will want it, I also think that Max and the FD may have different expectations on the dual ruck role heading into these last 4 weeks. I think Max would see an ‘in game’ rest with Brodie to continue the experiment, whereas if I was the FD I would lean towards the status quo (Petty and JVR) with Grundy getting a game at the expense of Gawn.

52 minutes ago, A F said:

Wasn't sure where to put this, so this thread seems as relevant as anywhere.

This article mirrors my own views expressed elsewhere on Demonland.

This is very likely an unsustainable approach for a premier, and note the team who has led most often at 3/4 time since the start of 2022.

Fire or flop? Pies' custom comebacks proving risky business - https://www.afl.com.au/news/992405

This is why it is legitimately such an open season; the Pies are a very good team but they have their flaws. Same with the others in the top 4. Our problems were fixable but not inevitably redeemed. The pies play an exciting brand of ‘contest swarm’ to pounce on turnover that when it doesn’t come off - they can get cut apart.

That is core gameplan; they can’t go toe to toe talent wise with us or the Lions. They know this. 

But it is all about putting it together across 3 weekends in September, 4 if your nasty.

1 hour ago, old dee said:

If we don’t rest Max this week we are nuts.

Didn’t he have a chunk of the season off with injury?
I am all for resting blokes the next few weeks heading in but Max seems like he is running on top of the ground atm. Viney and Petracca would be the ones I look at first. Viney because he is like Rusty Crowe in the 3rd act of Gladiator and Petracca because he is The Best Player In The Game right now.

Maybe Grundy can come in but I would be reticent to do that unless we are really willing to go in with three talls or willing to drop JVR. False hope otherwise.

2 minutes ago, rpfc said:

Ok so now that we have had our revelry - I have a prepared statement from the Tall Forwards Union (membership card number #2311):

To whom it may concern,

While we applaud the 6 goals scored by the Harry Petty of the Melbourne Football Club, we would like to remind fans that tall forwards should not be measured only by goals kicked and contested marks inside 50. Mr Petty will have a good game next week when he gets to the spots he got today, when he brings the ball to ground, when he creates space for others, and continues to do selfless running and presenting for his teammates. He will have a good game even if he doesn’t kick 6 straight, including an uncomplicated dead on set shot, and a pearler on his left over Grimes’ head! A whinge? Stay on him then?! Haha. Stay on him!

(clears throat) As I was writing; it is not sustainable to expect this every week and please enjoy the little things that forwards do that make your lives easier and better. 

End Statement.

Thanks for that. 

Glad the union clarified for people.

Ok so now that we have had our revelry - I have a prepared statement from the Tall Forwards Union (membership card number #2311):

To whom it may concern,

While we applaud the 6 goals scored by the Harry Petty of the Melbourne Football Club, we would like to remind fans that tall forwards should not be measured only by goals kicked and contested marks inside 50. Mr Petty will have a good game next week when he gets to the spots he got today, when he brings the ball to ground, when he creates space for others, and continues to do selfless running and presenting for his teammates. He will have a good game even if he doesn’t kick 6 straight, including an uncomplicated dead on set shot, and a pearler on his left over Grimes’ head! A whinge? Stay on him then?! Haha. Stay on him!

(clears throat) As I was writing; it is not sustainable to expect this every week and please enjoy the little things that forwards do that make your lives easier and better. 

End Statement.

1 hour ago, A F said:

Fair few Demonlanders (and media pundits) with egg on their face here. We had our usual mid season slump (circa 2021-2023), where we change our ball movement to protect the back 7 (which undermines scoring power), our DE drops during this period due to fatigue exacerbated by additional training loads, our accuracy plummets, and reactionaries call this a lack of forward connection. 

We've now won 4 on the trot; a game off 2nd; the double chance within reach; our accuracy has returned; our ball movement has become even more attacking than Act One of our season (credit @binman);  we're doing all this without Clarry and Fritta; and we're kicking ridiculous scores like 20.10.130 against teams with everything to play for. 

Meanwhile, media and Demonland darlings Collingwood (the arousal specialists) have dropped a game in exactly the same way they've been beaten in other bigger games over the last 12 months (deny them space in the corridor and deny overlap run, and they're gone if you beat them in CP and clearance), 2nd place Port have fallen in a hole and Brisbane remain flakey.

And speaking of gooses (sic geese), remind me what @picket fence said about Petty in the lead up to this week...?

I am going to give Goodwin the credit here of making some brave calls on Grundy, going back to The Petty Experiment, moving CP5 forward with no Oliver Backstop, putting faith in Melksham, and managing JVR so well this year (dropping and promoting).

These are a small individual things that in the aggregate look to have a huge impact. Nothing this year as stark as the ‘ball movement protection’ that we had in 2022 but still we had a funk and we are out of it with 2 of our top 7 players to return.

In such an even year, we were always a show - now we are a huge chance IF we can grab 2nd. We can win from anywhere of course, but that week off and home finals remove variables (how much better is Lachie Neale at the Gabba? How do we go with the umps in SA against one of their teams?).

But don’t let anyone tell you this was inevitable - this is good coaching and brave decision making and strong leadership. 

Definitely in 2023… 

I hope longer term because they are so hard to procure and very costly to acquire.

My one question would be on the craft that was shown but we were dumping it in there and he worked with what we gave him and that’s all you can ask for. 

The other thing to think about is in a forward line with Fritsch and Petracca - maybe a longer, ‘dumpier’ option is preferred… 

It was great to see.

That’s footy!

Hate to be that guy but (like I suggested) they left the press at home and just let the boys play and it was fun!

And actually, you know, HELPFUL FOR EMBEDDING A BATTLIN’ FORWARD LINE WITH CONFIDENCE AND PURPOSE.

Keep doing that the rest of the year and we will finish wherever in the top 4 with a forward line that knows itself.

12 minutes ago, adonski said:

The Suns have done us a massive favour, but unfortunately Freo's win may give them a bit of confidence heading into the final few games

Their only home games are against teams above us so they can go for it. They definitely win against WCE. Maybe the Hawks but that’s at the G in the last round - we will see how motivated they are. I think they win 2 on the way home but still finish 15th on percentage.

42 minutes ago, Dee Zephyr said:

Happy to just keep flying under the radar. 

Do you… do you mean losing?

Port have Geelong and Freo away and GWS at home and Tigers in the last round.

Lions have Freo and Coll away and Adel at home and Saints in the last round.

The first three for both are tough wins against teams that have either a reason to win or no reason to lose.

We have Tigers, Carl, and Haw at the G NM in Tassie and then Syd in Syd in last round.

Win today and you are ‘one more win heading home’ than these two away from 2nd…

12 minutes ago, old55 said:

The preferred structure across the journey has been 2 KPFs and 2 rucks. I predict Grundy comes in for a small e.g. Woey, especially with Clarrie getting back.

Just now, rpfc said:

Maybe. I think that we have gone smaller and liked it. 

And it has coincided with our most powerful weapon going forward in CP5.

I don’t think there is a functioning forward line in Petty, JVR, Grundy, Petracca, and the three speed forwards.

10 minutes ago, old55 said:

The preferred structure across the journey has been 2 KPFs and 2 rucks. I predict Grundy comes in for a small e.g. Woey, especially with Clarrie getting back.

Maybe. I think that we have gone smaller and liked it. 

9 minutes ago, old55 said:

I agree with the first paragraph but you're writing off 2023 in the second and I'm unwilling to.

Max cannot go solo (ie with JVR) all the way into the GF, so we need to get Brodie back in, and as @A F says we won against Collingwood with them in tandem.

An interesting ingredient to add to your 2024 recipe is Brodie Grundy MFC Premiership player.

It is interesting, I never believed ‘the ruck’ was the cause of our malaise, I wouldn’t have abandoned the Grundy/Gawn combo at all really, and I don’t buy the ‘Gawn can only play as sole ruck’ argument either - but we have to work with where the facts are and they have Grundy in the VFL in Rd 20 and another opportunity for a forward tandem to continue to displace him. 

It’s not that I have given up, it’s the current state of affairs that has Grundy as an underdog to win his spot back…

1 hour ago, old55 said:

Max has 3 years left if he doesn't have to ruck full-time. The reason he played so well solo is because Grundy enabled him to have less load, but he can't sustain this. 

Max was behind recruiting Grundy and remains so. What's laughable is that people can't understand this.

I agree that the ‘whole point of this’ was to extend Gawn’s career but you do realise the big 208cm variable in all this. Max is an amazing player, a great captain, and a lovely person. He needs to do some reflection on the ‘whole point of it’ because he is the one that will make this work. IF we keep Grundy, Max needs to be the forward in that duo by 2024. The fact that he couldn’t make a fist of his hour forward and it affected his hour in the ruck is the crucible of 2023 for us and it has failed so far.

As an aside, we were in Brodies ear this time last year so if someone wants him then they will be in his ear now - if we can’t assuage Brodie that 2024 and beyond are different then we should put all our eggs in the JVR basket and give him reps as an AFL back up ruck the year out.

1 hour ago, Jaded No More said:

The only thing that trumps my hate for Geelong is my love for Melbourne 

Quite.

The Death Ride has now entered the final act.

You see, the flailing of the riders heading for the afterworld was always going to happen. And now, with Geelong wounded, the Fremantle Living Dead have Brisbane and Port in their last 4 rounds. The husked corpses of the west win those games and we rejoice, they lose and we chortle. Even if they were to win 3 of their last 4 from here - that would get them only above GC.

So I guess we need a new ride; the Gold Coast Love Ride.

Go Sunnies Go.

2 hours ago, Jaded No More said:

A painful deathride today. But one must do what is best for one’s draft picks. 

So your Geelong hatred does have a limit?

Then I win.

1 hour ago, JimmyGadson said:

More than pick 1!

Demonland, a place that forever gives great amusement. 

Yeah, no worries.

4 hours ago, Jaded No More said:

I think Gawn is on track to play his 200th vs Hawks at home in round 23, so I don’t think they’ll rest him. Not sure he wants to share his milestone with a Buddy wankfest.

I am so glad they are scheduling those Buddy Wankfests now because I happened across one once and my lord, I enjoyed parts of it but my poor Granny, she struggled with all of it.

However people live their lives and all that.

Errr, thanks.