rpfc

On 10/05/2024 at 06:39, dees189227 said:

Must win & must start well

So you’re saying to not let them lead 36 to zero??

…

3 hours ago, Binmans PA said:

I'm hoping come Rounds 15-16ish our more expansive, attacking method has become more instinctive as it did Collingwood in 2022.

I do think the most fascinating watch is our midfield. What did you think of our centre stoppage set ups last night? I felt they were far too aggressive for too long.

I didn’t mind it because that’s the best midfield and we were 6-2… you don’t get any chance to test yourself if you move away from your sets and go defensive. I would do that in a final, but guys hate it because you spent all week preparing and then you get the call that ‘nah, let’s not bother’ - it sucks a bit of life out I feel.

In terms of our stoppages, I am ambivalent because the guys know they can get great clearances, chest facing goals, front of stoppage clearances, I just don’t think we put a great deal of focus on it because time is precious and I would prefer Clayton understand how he can use his endurance and smarts to get us going on defensive transition than do basketball like set plays that come off 4 times a game because that is life in the centre where a 208cm bloke has to palm it unseen into a slot for an ‘action’ (as the yanks would say) to be executed in a phone booth.

48 minutes ago, Binmans PA said:

I disagree mate. I think we deliberately reverted to a forward half territory, long ball game because of the rain, and yes, partly because they started so strongly.

But in essence I agree with the premise that progress in not linear. I think we can still greatly improve our entries with a longer kicking and forward half half if that is what the conditions call for.

That said, one of the admirable things about Collingwood last year is that whatever the conditions, their method remained the same.

Fair enough. I am more thinking about the first quarter where I felt a level of inertia but I get your point. The pleasing point is when we needed 3 goals in 4 minutes we entered the forward so well for two of those - lowering eyes and hitting up the right option with confidence from up the ground. 

Last night was a good example of progress not being linear. We were ‘punched in the face’ and our plan quickly went back to dump kicks and boring movement. 

It’s a good thing to learn from and recommit to the plan but it can be frustrating…

We need to put away the Eagles though and stay out of our shells doing it.

3 hours ago, rpfc said:

13 year bump. 

That kind of bump will give you nosebleeds

There’s nothing more tragic than when a joke loses its context…

13 year bump. 

That kind of bump will give you nosebleeds

15 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

Brad Johnson - who is apparently on the Rising Star selection committee - just said that he would be ranking the Rising Star at this point as

• 1. Windsor
• 2. Reid
• 3 M Roberts

Correction: Brad Johnson was giving his views to Kane Cornes who IS on the selection committee

That is lovely. Reid has been amazing though… 

Windsor reminds me of a young Danger mouse but I don’t think with the future inside bull motif.

Would love if we were to keep that option open with his body shape if possible. He is that good - you want him in the play as much as possible, and unfortunately, the wing is a supplementary role. Supplementary in that it requires others to get you involved and impact games.

6 minutes ago, Satan said:

Afl.com.au what a joke

 

The Dees have made just one change, recalling premiership defender Jake Bowey and dropping Bailey Laurie, who was the sub for last week's win over Geelong.

Bowey sustained a hamstring injury against Sydney in Opening Round and has missed the past eight weeks but is straight back into the side for the clash at the MCG.

🎶your hamstrings connected to your…

…collarbone🎶

The human body. What a mystery

Some have touched on this but it amazes me this notion I hear occasionally about the ‘dour Dees’ as they notice us being more patient and not just accepting the ‘red mist’ that is allowed inferior teams to absorb and beat us.

We are more exciting this year then the previous two in how we play - we are just not making it easy for the other team to slingshot and bring excitement to the game.

Perhaps these commentators should comment that the other team should stop flooding and allow us to score more easily and quickly if they are looking for more excitement…

1 hour ago, Nascent said:

From start time to start time it's exactly 5 days. From end of Geelong game to start of Carlton games it's 4 days and 21-ish hours. Depends how pedantic you want to be with it.

WE WISH TO BE VERY PEDANTIC

5 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

As @WheeloRatings says, you can use it to understand whether or not your misses were shots you should have taken or were just tough shots. That gives it value. It then gets mis- and over-used such as is the case by Fox in the discussed article. 

So is it a lie or a damned lie?

4 hours ago, WheeloRatings said:

It's clearly not a meaningless or bad stat if the clubs put a lot of stock in it. Can you say that a team should have won a match because they won on expected scores by a small margin? No, you can't. So articles like the above from Fox Sports don't really help with interpretation of expected scores.

Goalkicking is not entirely about "who performs under pressure" - there's an element of that, but there is also an element of luck with goalkicking.

Regardless, expected scores provide two very useful and insightful metrics (even completely ignoring the "who should have won" perspective).

Average expected score per shot
This metric is a measure of average shot difficulty.

Melbourne supporters bemoan Melbourne's strategy of kicking it to the pocket because it leads to more difficult shots. This metrics quantifies this. Melbourne rank 18th for average shot difficulty in 2024 (16th last year) and 18th for set shots only (17th last year).

Average difference between actual and expected score per shot
This metric is a measure of goalkicking accuracy, and much better than raw accuracy (goals divided by shots).

People already look at the final tally of goals and behinds and draw conclusions such as a team should have won by more or were lucky to win. Two recent examples are:
 - Essendon defeating West Coast 11.11 to 11.5
 - Adelaide defeating Carlton 16.4 to 14.14

On the surface, you assume West Coast were lucky to get as close thanks to their accurate kicking and you assume Adelaide was very lucky to win thanks to their apparent ridiculously accurate kicking.

 - West Coast had 24 shots to 23 and won expected scores 89.9 to 80.7.
 - Adelaide had 25 shots to 26 (despite it being 20 "scores" to 28) and only lost expected scores 92.8 to 95.8.

Hang on a second. I am talking about insight, the stat itself can help paint a picture as much as my eyes and subjective (yet educated) opinion can, but the insight gleaned by some from this stat- including our coach apparently - is patently misguided. 

Any team that prioritises territory over deliberate movement is going to have more entries, more shots at goal, more ‘repeat’ shots at goal that make the previous ‘miss’ irrelevant to this particular stat as it would not have existed if not for the previous ‘miss’.

It is by definition a flawed stat, and, taken on its own, irrelevant.

But that’s all stats I suppose, but none get treated like this one, there is an ‘expected score’ ladder floating around for crying out flamin’!

I’m sorry, but this is a bad stat. It is just trying to place hard truth upon contests and shots at goal under pressure where there is only nuance and grey. 

There is very little insight with this particular statistic.

48 minutes ago, greenwaves said:

People suggesting we should rest players because of the five day break...forget it.  Goodwin doesn't do that.  If you're fit, you play.

We have 5 players who have less than 10 games experience. Maybe we will evolve…

18 minutes ago, Demonland said:

 

I feel with the crowd building to a crescendo and some of the commentary peppered in its much better that titanic meme.

7 hours ago, PVardy said:

Me with the memes of the younger generation:

Is everyone ok with him in the team now?

His potential for 2024 far outweighs anything any other player can provide across half forward.

We will persist AND we will persist past the next 3 week block of poor form you goldfish ‘endure’…

43 minutes ago, sue said:

why?

Why should he take glib asides about access to his short term memory after a hit to the head to a broadcaster directly after a game out of his witty repertoire?

31 minutes ago, Queanbeyan Demon said:

Not verbatum

Interviewer: How's your head?

Max: Pretty good

Interviewer: What did the doctor say?

Max: he come onto the ground and asked me who we played last week - I said I have no idea

Doctor: Either have I . . . you're right to play on.

Not quite. Gawn referenced the on ground testing they do and that’s what cleared him. 

Max probably should take those jokes out of repertoire though.

Port are the new Melbourne

Yeesh

11 minutes ago, Binmans PA said:

Mid to late 40,000s I reckon.

That is so poor lol

If we continue with crowds like this, we deserve what we get from Sam McLure.

And before I get the nuffy out from everyone- we would 93k for a final with Geelong at the G but 48k for a top4 matchup in Autumn… 

Got to raise that floor…

31 minutes ago, Moonshadow said:

IMO best not to assume.

This is the internet. I am sure they will take heed!

4 hours ago, Lucifers Hero said:

LOL.  I noticed Eddie's lie ... couldn't see his face but I swear he didn't blink.

I know a 4yo who has no problem telling a little white lie while looking you directly in the eye ... but they are so cute at that age ... 

Yes I have a little 4 year old liar too… ah well…

9 hours ago, Lucifers Hero said:

Eddie's training adventures continue.

In the club rooms last week. 

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C50LlZkxNfC/?igsh=bWxkZ3h5Mm1jMGox

My favourite moments:

• How Melksham teaches Eddie to 'look me in the eye' when shaking hands.🤩
• Jvr introduces himself as 'Jacob'.  Eddie hesitates for a confused moment and says:  'Hi Roo'. 🥰 Ah, the joy of childhood.
• a big hug for Petracca  😍 And how Petracca invites him in to 'meet the boys' - I suspect a friendship forged on AFL 360.

Very impressed he knows all the players by sight and remembers their names.

 

Note:  If the above link doesn't work go to instagrams on mfc site.  Apologies if posted elsewhere

This is good content!

Although, Eddie lied to Clayton. He lied. He lied and that needs to be dealt with at some point.

Shame really.

4 year olds these days, constantly lying…

9 hours ago, Binmans PA said:

We are emulating Geelong's slingshot game from the back half, where centre stoppages are less important and an open forward line is generated by slingshot off turnover in D50.

I like to use Round 2 2019 as a good example of this approach. I was at the game and we mauled them from first possession clearance and they beat us by 80 points. In the game, they lost inside 50 by -24 and clearance by -15, scoring 62% of the time they went inside 50.

I'd argue this back half game has been Chris Scott's template for well over a decade. 

Meanwhile, that night, we played the same game we played between 2017-2023, which was an aggressive, gruelling forward half game. This saw us lay +2 tackles and lay 18 to 11 tackles inside 50 for the game.

This week, I expect that we'll back our new defensive slingshot system in against theirs and whilst we'll be happy to take territory when it's on offer, we'll look to follow the same blue print we've followed the rest of the season.

* -1 at stoppage

* send only 1 to the ground ball at stoppage (the rest defending or blocking)

* emphasise post clearance pressure (from the defensively positioned mids and the inside slider off the back or front of the stoppage)

* be happy to soak up pressure with a deep lying defensive zone

* and tempt Geelong's methodical kicking game from the back half and try and turn the ball over across the wing area and slingshot back in.

I think we'll play Fritta on Stewart like we did Moore last year. Fritta did some good jobs as a defensive forward last year. It meant he was often where the ball was (by way of his opponent going for the intercept) or us directly playing through him.

Alternatively, it could be a really good way of getting Petty into the game. Have him sit on Stewart.

Interestingly enough though, Stewart didn't do all the damage last year (another game I was at). Although he had the 2nd most for Geelong on the night and 8 intercept possessions, I felt Jack Henry who had 9 intercept possessions was more damaging. In a game where they lost Cameron in the first quarter to injury mindyou.

I think Geelong will manage to score with their very talented forwardline (notwithstanding Hawkins struggling this year and Cameron being kept goalless earlier in the year), but the nature of their slingshot game means it's their defenders that set up their game, less so their mids. 

Dangerfield is a big out, but if we can prevent Stewart, Henry, Kolodjashnij and De Koning from controlling the area and our A50, I think we'll win. 

Yeah, it’s a balance. As @binmannotes - we are always going to be defence first and contest focussed. But that is brutal, and unless you are powering it out of centre - hard to score quickly in a final if you need 3 goals in 7 mins.

I think Goodwin wants to see us slingshot when the space allows it, and compress and keep territory when it’s fruitful, but we can’t do that until we are mature in the slingshot. 

So i hope we lean into it the next two weeks and the team can see it up against some very good teams.