Everything posted by Jjrogan
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Who is the new kicking coach? Give him a contract extension!
Fwiw the stats agree with you. We are bottom 4 for both handball and kicking efficiency. One could argue the relevance of the 'efficiency' stat but in broad strokes its meaningful enough and at half time last week I dont think anyone would have said our kicking has improved. Kosis' 2nd half hit ups are fresh in the mind. However our ball use is top 5 after suns, dogs, hawks, swans. We are playing in a way that if the disposal chain is accurate we hit the scoreboard.
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PREGAME: Rd 04 vs Gold Coast
Very gettable at home. They play a fwd handball game and their ball use is highest rated in the comp. Basically, they've been playing fast break basketball very well with 3 scores over 120. But without Trac/Rowell and a bit of x factor in Humphery Bear, we have a decent chance to win the contested and stoppages this week. It will come down to pressure and disrupting their run and gun. I'd also love some consistent marking and scoreboard output from our key forwards but hey what's new.
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TMax 500 Games!!!
That is a great interview. Thanks sharing. Kudos to Goodwin for recognising his potential as a forward in 201i8. . Yet after he does incredibly well, he says he got shopped around in 2020 by mfc and there was no takers. Honestly the player assessment and list management at afl clubs (not just ours) is quite a chuckle at times.
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TMax 500 Games!!!
When I think of Tmac, I'm reminded of a Game of Thrones quote that Varys says to Tyrion after Tyrion wins the battle of Blackwater. "The king won't give you any honors, the histories won't mention you, but we will not forget" In 2017, he was equal 2nd best in brownlow votes for mfc. He kicked 53 goals in our 2018 run. In 2021 he had our 4th highest brownlow tally after Oliver, Trac and Gawn. And we were 9-0 before he got injured in 2022. He sacrificed everything for mfc. Carbs, for starters. He is a legend of this club.
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POSTGAME: Rd 02 vs Fremantle
I get your point, but in order of preference from those playing. (Viney id have above these) Rivers. Bigger body. More years in the system. Has more of a defensive mindset, Brayshaw and Bolton were given way too much rope.. Could easily average 25 touches as a mid. Had 3 CBA. Langford. Ultimately the future. Good hands in tight. Had a bad day with fumbles but he will be a top 30 afl midfielder in time. Had 1 CBA. Chandler. He isnt everyones cup of tea. But he is very good below his knees and above average with ball use. Had 3 CBA I see what King is trying to do.. Lots of run, either speed and/or endurance across the ground. But i think we need at least 1 nore bigger body and better ball use to do the grunt post clearance and on transition. Steele had 30, but his disposal let him down (he ordinarily is not that poor).
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Stats File 2026 Season
The big discrepancy was their ball use which was well above AFL average whilst ours was well below. They have a lot of good users and smart decision makers. Alas, we do not on a weekly basis.
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POSTGAME: Rd 02 vs Fremantle
King needs to re-evaluate here at some point in the next 4 weeks. Windsor is not a centre bounce midfielder. He cant stand up in or shrug a tackle. He's not a strong tackler. He doesn'thave a side step. He's not an accumulator. His foot skills are one sided and he's not accurate. His asset is straight line speed and run to break a line to create overlap, but an AFL midfielder needs to have some of the other traits. I think he's totally out of position.
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PREGAME: Rd 01 vs St. Kilda
Kind of with you a bit. (Not the Chandler part, his output absolutely is comparable to mid tier small forwards) but I do wonder if the appetite for runners amd smalls is a bit too much. Key positions can get injured, have off days, opposition has more marking power than expected etc. You're left with limited flexibility. But as he's a new coach, willing to check out the experiment. Also, its fun playing the drinking game you take a shot every time Sharp coughs the ball up in traffic.
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PREGAME: Rd 01 vs St. Kilda
Interesting that one of the first things King did to assess the list was to ask for GPS data to identity the runners and is now picking Sharp along with no talls on the bench. King Ball.
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First 6 rounds
4-2 with K. Pickett 3 best on grounds.
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2026 Injury List
Purely for interest's sake. What breed are they?
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GAMEDAY: Practice Match vs Richmond
Gawn is going to prove to everyone he is the greatest ruckman of all time. He has accepted the "must jump' challenge and will be unstoppable this year 🍿 🍿 🍿
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GAMEDAY: Practice Match vs Richmond
Gawn is going to prove to everyone he is the greatest ruckman of all time. He has accepted the "must jump' challenge and will be unstoppable this year 🍿 🍿 🍿
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Rolling Weekly Best 23
B: Jiath - Petty - Lever HB: Lindsay - Turner - Salem C: Langford - Steele - Langdon HF: Fritsch - Mihocek - L. Pickett F: Melksham - Kentfield- Chandler Foll: Gawn - Rivers - K. Pickett I/c: Windsor - Howes - Heath - Sparrow - X. Taylor It was raining goals and forward entries in the match sim but yet again JVR had limited scoreboard impact or much influence (after a bright start). If King is going to announce every position is up for grabs then JVR must be borderline. We were 5-2 without him in 2025, including our 3 best wins. His one wood is crashing packs, not his leading (his words not mine) but that's exactly what Mihocek brings now. Kentfield brings an x factor, sticky hands and a well timed vertical leap. Impressed JVR has slimmed down and maybe he finds a few marks this weekend but based on last years output, a meh first match sim and this new style of play I'm not positive he is best 23 in this team. He got a lot of games last year as the 2nd ruckman but with Heath showing promise, I really think his spot is in jeopardy. I hope he does well this weekend and shows me the middle finger.
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POSTGAME: Practice Match vs North Melbourne
Man, Norf were junk. They have about 6 good players, of which only 3 ever show up at any one time. Yes, missing some of their starting 23 but its not like those guys are much chop either. Any half decent team would have beaten them by 12 goals today. Which we may well be. Our midfield is well suited to our new game plan and to the trend of 2026 football. We have too much seasoned talent to be bottom 4 imho. Kentfield is a gem. Great athleticism, 2nd efforts and lays a heavy tackle. Hope he plays round 1.
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PREGAME: Practice Match vs North Melbourne
Yes. Our 2025 was dragged down by our performances at either end of the ground. We were a mid ranked midfiled but our ladder position relative to that reflected shocking inaccuracy (at one point the worst in decades before it rebounded late in the season to mildly putrid ) and our inability to stop marks inside 50 (league worst). Playing a faster game definitely will not help on the latter point (lever back will) so its crucial either our midfield take a step up or we find winners ahead of the ball to kick 90 points a game. On the midfield, the big trend over the last 3-4 years had been the inefficacy (a word i may of made up) of contested ball winning teams. 3 of the top 4 contested teams in 2025 didnt make the finals. Ofc, you cant be woeful and be bottom 4 but theres enough contested dna in our list we wont be. Pickett Rivers Gawn Steele Windsor is not a junk midfield and the game clearly favours speed now. Add to this we wont be waiting 20 seconds for ball ups. There is going to be a lot less congestion at stoppages this year is my prediction which may play directly into our new look. (Also less boundary throw ins). For now, im a glass half full for 2026, but can understand the pessimism. If it turns out the glass is empty, another dip for early talent at the draft is a silver lining.
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I Hope the AFL Watched the Superbowl Halftime Show…
It was almost as if they hoped it would be incredibly polarising and generate (global) clicks for their industry. Id say the NFL nailed it.
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Please explain
From an analytical point of view, we had 18 goal assists (from 21 goals), which is an incredibly high percentage and perhaps the most ever in a GF. I know you're specifically talking about those glorious 40 minutes, which I think highlighted this stat. Goal assists need correct decision making, correct execution, and then accurate goal kicking (!!!!). Its very hard to get these all right and even harder to have a string of them for more than a quarter. Even Cats thumping of Port in 07 didnt have as many GAs. Our dominance wasnt the result of luck, umpiring or individual brilliance. It was a team effort of consistently excellent decision making and execution. Its very rare to pull off for such a sustained period and of course even rarer in a GF. From an intuitive point of view, they 'dropped their heads' after Sparrows goal to Brown (amazing kick to advantage GA) at the start of the last, we had all the 'momentum' and just buried them. Tying this back to 2026 btw, last year Geelong had multiple games of 20+ goal assists last year. One in the year before. This is quite rare and speaks to a team with excellent 'forward connection', the one thing that stopped us winning multiple flags imho. The fact we have their (assistant) coach under that era may well end up being an absolute brilliant goal assist in itself.
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PRESEASON TRAINING: Monday 12th January 2026
I think he is the single most important player on our list. If he kicks 30 and plays 20 games it unlocks Kozy for more midfield minutes which is worth i believe 3 to 4 wins above replacement.
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The Ox Worried About the Dees in 2026
I agree. Imho, he has identified the parts of our game and personnel that were weaknesses and is immediately addressing them. He's worked under the best coach in the game so he understands the assisgnment one feels. About time there was a Chris Scott coaching tree, eh. If Gawn and Pickett stay fit, and Rivers and Langford can regularly influence games our midfield will be competitve. (These two are the most likely to have 25 touch, 7 score involvement, brownlown vote and match winning games). Steele/Viney to play defensive roles to stop other midfields getting off the chain. Need to bring them down to our level a fraction. Backline is a wait and see. On paper the names were elite once but I sense watching May, Lever and Petty together will be like observing 3 aircraft carriers perform naval drills. Turner came along at exactly the right time. Up forward is still a big worry. 2 injury riddled guys over 33 years old? Yeah, nah. Dreaming if we think this is an AFL forward line in 2026. Very positive JVR has trimmed up but i still have my doubts he has the natural forward instincts. Okay to give him half a season but if its not working there really needs to be some 'learnings' in the coaches box. Kentfield appears to have great timing and deserves a chance on bigger grounds and space. Other minor worry is we will replace the "defence and contest" dogma with "we want to play an attractive brand of football". Winning is the most attractive brand and I hope this doesnt get trotted out too often. Ask Ange about this. (Bris)Vegas has set our over under wins for next year at 6.5. I think thats too low by 2 games. Go Dees
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The Midfield - where do the Demons stand?
Yup. Its actually a quickish dynamic midfield for the modern rules. Us and carlton led contested possesion differences last year. Did nothing. Syd and st kilda were top 4 for clearances. Did nothing. Yes, Lions way out in front on that one, but their midfield is quite a special case. More a family tree than anything else. Also we cant forget Max who is a huge part of creating turnovers and intercepts. I think he's got another 3 to 4 years in him easy if he wants it.
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The Midfield - where do the Demons stand?
I think our midfield is going to surprise next year. One metric to assess midfield 'strength' is inside 50s differential. To me, forget the names, the stronger midfields are the ones that drive the ball forward but also limit opposition entries either through winning stoppages or creating turnovers. Last year lions, gc, geelong bris were the top 4 and a lot of pundits would have them the best midfiellds (arguably not geelong). In 2021, it was doggies, melb, geel, bris. Last year we were actually 7th on this metric, and our relative win loss was the result of being quite poor at either end of the ground. (We were simply not athletic enough for a faster ball movement game). With draftees Pickett and Taylor I think we are looking to address this. Petracca is the big loss, but I still have hope his output can be replicated in part by Pickett, Rivers, Langford, Windsor playing more significant minutes thru the middle.
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Still no way forward
I agree with you. There is a lot of belief that our ball movement is slow and for 22, 23 and 24 Id say it was and it showed in the numbers. But this year our ball movement was actually above average in more than a few ways. Eg. Our transition to score and defensive half to score was all in the top half of the comp. Obviously it can be better, but thats not where our gap to the rest of the comp was. Our marks inside 50 per entry was 2nd last (only freo worse). And our smaller forwards in melksham, chandler, pickett fritsch all had close to career highs for marks inside 50 per game as a result of the ball movement. So theres more than enough evidence to suggest yes, our key forwards set up isnt right either in personnel or instruction. The good news is i dont think King is as stubborn in the 'process' as Goodwin was so if we dont get forward half impact he'll switch things around a bit.
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Welcome to Demonland: Xavier Taylor
He doesnt mind playing in front, eh. Great result
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AFL Draft 2025: Picks 7 & 8
Not to argue with your point, as you still always need a competent midfield but if we are looking at GF, of the last 15 GFs, the premiership team has won the clearances 8 times. For these games, the 'stat' that best correlates with winning is marks inside 50 (10.5/15). Again, not to downplay your point but if there was one stat I could win in any game, it would be marks inside 50. Its the stat most correlated with winning percentage. The upshot is, statistically speaking, what you do with it is a bit more important than getting it (which has been our problem for a number of years)..