Everything posted by Jjrogan
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PREGAME: Rd 23 vs Hawthorn
Doesnt seem we are trying new things at the selection table which is fine. Id love to knock off the hawks and pies to give the club some confidence into 2026. On field, saw some newer things last week on field with Chaplin. Gawn and Langford both pushed forward more, Seems he's trying to address our biggest weakness of marks i50. Had Salem in for a couple of cbas. Dont mind that but hope he gives Rivers and maybe Chandler a run in there also. Hawks are bloody good forward of the ball and particularly inside 50s. They dont stop moving and create space very well. They dont have a player in the top 50 of player ratings but pushing for top 4. Sign of a very well coached team.
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Time to experiment
You'd want him to improve his kicking by a significant level. This year he has the 2nd worst kicking efficiency of any defender in the afl with more than 15 games. (Liam baker is worse) He is 5th worst in our team (usual suspects bottom four). But while he is statistically 'better', if you account for his possesssiona being mainly uncontested he is arguably dead last as a kick in our team.. (Last year he was also bottom 6.) Sure, its ok to put this down to inexperience for a period of time, some player need time and also decent presasons but if if this doesnt improve dramatically in the next 25 games no way should we just hope he 'comes good'. Id much rather have consistent accurate kicks langford salem chandler bowey and lindsay getting the bulk of our possessions. We cant just replace slow ball butchers with fast ball butchers.
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POSTGAME: Rd 22 vs Western Bulldogs
Ya. Anb had the same issue and he said through coaching it got better. He needs to breath and pause mentally before he kicks. Just take that extra step, they wont carch you.
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Time to go Goody?
Taking emption out of it. Just facts. Petty and JVR are not in the top 150 forwards for marks inside 50 a game. The stat most correlated with win loss. Both facts. With half decent forward, which our list has, we would be playing finals (opinion) Pickett, Melksham and Fritta all are top 60 so lets not just blame delivery. Its shocking yes but these guys manage to get it done.. In fact, all three are at their career highs for marks inside 50 per game. If i continue to take enotion out of it, i would conclude that maybe its time to try May up forward, maybe Turner, maybe Jefferson who has nearly has many marks inside 50 as JVR and Petty despite playing only a handful of games. The poster is correct, Goodwin believes in his process despite evidence suggesting he needs to change the vaiables. He refuses to try new things. Its got nothing to do with emotions. Hes just getting it wrong with what he has. Plain and simple.
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PREGAME: Rd 21 vs West Coast
There's a reason why we are where we are. These selections put a exclamation mark on it.
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POSTGAME: Rd 20 vs St. Kilda
There is no doubt our senior leadership failed in that last quarter. But it deflects from the bigger issue, which either people dont believe or dont want to believe. Our lowest ranking players yesteday were ones that didnt play in the premiership. Maybe only Turner plays in that 2021 side? Anyway broken record time, petty and jvr should not be playing forward. They have no idea how to lead or how to slip their men consistently. Worst kpf output this century. But carry on soldier.
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PREGAME: Rd 20 vs St. Kilda
As much as I love JVRs attitude and physical presence, I mentioned in round 5 I thought he and Petty were going to be a bit of a liability for our midfield. By his own admission he isnt a leading forward. But he's young and talented so he should be tried in different positions a bit imo. What should be clear by now is that him and Petty definitely dont work in the same forward line. They arent fast or slippery enough when the ball is in transition quickly, especially against the best defenders. Both Turner and Jeffo seem to be able to lose their men.
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PREGAME: Rd 20 vs St. Kilda
Can never say never, but if we get smashed by a bottom 4 side with 12 premiership players we are looking at a very, very long decade ahead. Saints arent much chop to be spanking teams. Jefferson is going to have a break out game one of these weeks. He knows how to lead and find space. Much better option to kick to than petty or jvr imo.
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Joe Daniher - worth a knock on his door?
Not suggesting our fwd 50 entries are acceptable, but if we hold the common narrative for just a moment Pickett, Chandler, Melksham, Fritsch, Sparrow are all averaging more marks inside 50 this year than their career averages. The harder narrative to swallow is that our key forwards are just not good enough finding space/contested marking right now and we need to make drastic changes. (Either game plan or personnel)
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PREGAME: Rd 20 vs St. Kilda
Yea thats fair enough. He's playing well. But Im really not focussed on the win this week. We simply have to try something different and look at players we havent seen before. Even if one of them hits the mark, its a big win in the long run. As i said, you almost never get a chance like this (not as a result of injury and players coming in with form and confidence)
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PREGAME: Rd 20 vs St. Kilda
Outs. Windsor. Sharp. Kolt. May. Jvr. In. Howes. Laurie. Kentfield. Adams. AJ You have 4 free weeks here to actually try something different. There is absolutely nothing at stake. The players above dropped on form will get their chance again and most likely play round 1 2026, but not one of them have cut the mustard this year. Theyve all had 10 games plus and have been bottom 6 players iin the majority of them. If you dont pick those new kids now who have all had a run of decent games at casey, you almost never will. You dont get many chances like this. And if the kids don't contribute, well its not a lot of difference to right now is it?
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May to Tribunal
Its so ridiculous. 9 times out of 10 he doesnt break his face and May doesnt get cited for anything because it was an accident. So its based on outcome. Meanwhile had May got seriously injured by a knee to the temple (which can actually kill you) , the AFL would say thats an accident. Either the outcome matters or it doesnt. Any contact to the head if the player gets concussed should be a suspension and tdk should be looking at a 3 week penalty also. Just as you can still bunp but lbe punished if it goes bad, you can take a specky but still get suspended if the player you're kneeing in the head gets concussed. Basic logic.
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Where is Fritta Going?
Our key forwards this year have kicked more than 2 goals on just 2 occasions. Petty kicked 4 against Freo. Turner kicked 3 against WCE and was then sent down back to save humanity. Arguably, the worst output from KPFs in decades.
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POSTGAME: Rd 19 vs Carlton
It was nice to see some emotion but if you want to know the reason why our problems are not being fixed its he still doesnt address our problem (unless he simply doesnt want to share it pubically) His press conference started by blaming the first quarter and you cant win after that. What is he on about?? Yes we lost the 1st quarter inside 50 20 to 9? Yes we had 7 tackles. So what? We were down by 8 points. It happens, youre not going to get 4 quarters of unconditional effort every week for 24 rounds, whatever that means. Sometimes you have a bad quarter. Deal with it. At the end of the conference he said we had more than enough opportunity to win the game, but 'we lost the game in the first quarter' so it sounds like we will focus on that. If he believes this, no wonder we dont get better. There is too much focus on 'unconditional efforts' and blah blah blah. We lost the game because after quarter time we won inside 50s 50 to 30, had almost 100 more possesions and didnt even outscore a bottom 6 team because half our team cannot hit a moving target, and the same players give away the same free kicks week in week out. The same players in the same spots doing the same things getting the same poor results. That's not a process, thats the definiton of something else.
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POSTGAME: Rd 19 vs Carlton
Bevlcause you dont win the most important stat in football. Marks inside 50. No point winning the ball, getting turnovers, getting inside 50 if you cant take a mark and then nail a set shot. Thats what wins football games more than anything else. With that much or the ball and shoulders out entires into 50 we should at least be getting double figures for marks i50. Cya next week!
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PREGAME: Rd 19 vs Carlton
Agree. Not as confident as last week but for every match winner they still have, we probably have two. A lot of their players are noticeably down on confidence. Worst case scenario here is they kick accurately early on, get their tails up and get some score board pressure. 'We are not as bad as you think'
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Game Plan changes
We are 13th on scores against from turnover. 10th on scores from turnover. Netted, we are 10th overall on differential. The top 8 in both stats is pretty much the top 8, but really that shouldnt be too much of a surprise. Most scores come from turnovers and if youre in the top 8 logic says youll have the better percentage and therefore be most likely in the better half for turnover stats. As for game plan, i agree with you there is a clear shift in our game plan, you may not like what you are seeing or agree with it, but if you cant see we are trying to switch more especially in the back half what games are you watching? Salem is 3rd in the league for marks! That's not nature thats nuture. I also agree with the consensus we need some better penetrating kicks. Pies have 4 of the top 30. Adelaide have Dawson and elite kicks forward of centre. Brisbane have Zorko and the Luggage. We have.... Melksham, who is quietly the best in the AFL (with both feet) and Bowey, just. I reckon Lindsay and Langford are above average for now but may nudge elite. However, Windsor and Pickett are below average and ill bet my bottom dollar they will remain so. You can count on one hand players that significantly improve their kicking after they are drafted. Pickett however can create scoring opportunities from nothing so ill take the bad with the good every day of the week if he's in the middle. I know I harp on it elsewhere but our biggest issue by far and part of the reason our game plan has looked so ordinary this year is because we have generational low output from our key forwards. The worst this century. Its not just the delivery as others find a way to get marks inside 50. If we had the output of even bang average kpf forward in our team, say Peter Wright and Mabior Chol we would be contending for the 8. But end of the day thats not enough, to win a flag we need a few more elite kicks. Sad thing is I think both Oliver and Petracca are having decent seasons apart from their kicking, which in Petraccas case will mean revert, so i dont really know how we're going to solve this puzzle.
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Can we talk about Kolt?
! Cue up the Can we talk about Tom Sparrow thread.
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ACL surgery for Andy Moniz-Wakefield
Judd seems to me playing with a bit less confidence and a loss of step this year. Maybe there's a niggle thats holding him back but his kick to Fritta was a good reminder how good he can be if he backs himself to look for the tougher option. He saw that one so late in the ball drop but still nailed it.
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PREGAME: Rd 19 vs Carlton
Very interesting selection week with Petty. We look so much quicker and mobile without JVR and Petty in the same forward line.
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Trade Targets
Fristch, Pickett and Melksham are all in the top 60 players in the league for marks inside 50 per game. Petty is 110 Jvr is 140 Im not suggesting for one minute our delivery is good, but this is where the biggest underperformance has been by a long way. Fwiw Turner was in the top 25 or so before Simom says he is a defender. We need a KPF who can reliably clunk a few.
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PREGAME: Rd 18 vs North Melbourne
What uninspiring selection, (though Sharp is a blessing) What exactly to look forward to this week? Win well - big talent gap should be thunping these guys. Some of the younger players play well, some dont Win small - lucky to win, will get easily beaten by the better teams. None of the younger players play well. Lose - Meltdown. Hardly anyone plays well [Insert here] is underperforming and needs to be traded. Not to say I dont want to win, but surely we need to use the next 8 weeks to learn something about our list, positional and roles if you are "rebuilding" Spose I should wait for gametime and die of shock when May or Turner goes to FF, given their KPFs are worse than ours. No excuse not to put up 16 goals+ if the weather is fine.
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PREGAME: Rd 18 vs North Melbourne
"All happy families are alike; each unhappy family is unhappy in its own way"
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PREGAME: Rd 18 vs North Melbourne
Wow. A fresh look. New roles. North scrambling a little in the coaches box. Players and supporters excited at something different. Wont happen.
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PREGAME: Rd 18 vs North Melbourne
This week yes, but If there's minimal change to the forward line, i am hopeful but not expecting a major change to our results over the rest of the season. Still, North may be without 5 of their best 10 players. For a bottom 3 team. This should just be a matter of stopping Sheezel and Curtis and winning by 6 to 8 goals or we are not a serious contender for a long long time.