At the break of Gawn

Really good point. That reminds me of a comment on SEN I heard a week-or-two ago where they said the winter months slow things down a bit, bigger body midfielders have more dominance. I'll definitely revisit this thread at the back end of the year and see if this trend continues.

All the stats referring to other grounds (non-mcg) in my post were across the 3 seasons (so before and after bye rounds). I didn't think there was much of a sample of other grounds before the bye rounds so included the entire season. Absolutely. Funnily enough going into this season, our record at the MCG before the bye rounds was 27% winning ratio. So, this poor start isn't exactly out of the ordinary when you consider how poorly we play the MCG in the earlier part of the season. Begs the question, why do we get it "right" at the latter part of the season and can win at the MCG (71%)? Is it just game style and the sample size probably isn't big enough, or is it conditioning, or is it something else?

Yes, but the reality is that isn’t going to happen while our home is the G. The fact that our winning % is quite decent after the bye round might actually strengthen the theory regarding a conditioning issue our list has playing on big grounds early in the season.

I started writing this post talking about our poor record at the MCG (which I know is often discussed here due to our poor leg spead, lack of spread, two way running etc), but when I looked more into the data, I was horrified at what I found when it came to our record at the MCG before the mid-season bye. Here are the numbers since Goodwin has taken over: Total games at the MCG before the bye rnd: 15 games Wins: 3 Losses: 12 Winning % of 20% Average losing margin of 19pts, avg. winning margin of 56pts. Avg. Points for: 88, avg points against: 92 If you take out the two Carlton games from here, it drops to 1 win (North Melb) and hence a winning % of 7% (1 win from 13 games) So, over the last 2 and a qtr seasons, before the bye we've only ever beaten two teams at the MCG, North Melbourne and Carlton.. Geezus. Our worst streak of losses at the MCG is currently 4 (equal to rnds 4-9 of 2017 vs rnds 1-6 of 2019). I wonder if they'll achieve 5 losses on a trot this weekend? On the flip side, after the mid-bye round, our winning % jumps up to 71% (10 wins, 4 losses). -- For those interested, our record overall at the MCG under Goody is: 13 Wins, 16 losses, 44% winning ratio. That is bloody poor for a team's home ground. Can't think of many 'good' teams who have as poor of a record. - Also, for those interested at our winning % at other venues, it is: Marvel: 6W, 1L - 86% Gabba: 2W 0L - 100% Ade Oval: 2W 1L: 66% Domain & Optus combined: 2W, 1L: 66% TIO (darwin): 1W 1L: 50% TIO Traeger (Alice): 2W 0L: 100% GMHBA : 0W 2L: 0% SCG: 1W 0L: 100% Blundstone: 0W 1L: 0% Manuka: 0W 1L: 0% So one last sobering stat, for all grounds where we've played 3 or more games at over the last 2 and a bit seasons, the MCG winning % is the worst.

I honestly hate the "drank their own bathwater" comments. It implies that each individual in the entire team has that mindset when that just simply can't be true. I can accept that a few might have that mindset/attitude but to say that every individual has a shared mindset of arrogance is just absurd.

Defence is still a problem. We let Richmond had something like 70 inside 50s. That shows poor pressure up the ground and poor defensive work in our forward line. We are a forward half team. Good forward half teams don’t let the opposition get 70 inside 50s in regards to our forward problems, I see it mainly as a problem with our talls not marking it or bringing it to ground for our smaller players to do the work. Lowering the eyes and all that is great on turn over entries when the opposition defence isn’t set up yet, but it’s like threading a needle when the opposition is fully set up. In those cases taking a big contested mark or getting a good ground ball opportunity from a small forward is a good way to score. Another thing worth mentioning is that in many ways I think making a Prelim smoothed over for what was largely a good but not great season. Before rnd22 we hadn’t beaten a top 8 team, and we were still dropping games we were expected to win. E.g. Saints rnd 15, Sydney Rnd 21, inexplicably lost to Cats after being 30pts up.

Almost the same team we played last year (minus Walsh) that we belted by 100pts. when your out of form, everyone looks better than you. Having said that, I think their spine is bloody good but you’d expect that when the number of high draft picks they’ve had.

Max Gawn penned a good article today in the Herald Sun. Pretty sure it’s behind a pay wall though. He basically said that being unfit is a myth and a lot of the players hit PBs in pre-season time trials. The team knew there were no guarantees about playing finals again and knew they had to go again (so it’s not a bath water thing) Basically said we haven’t improved our defence as a team while other teams have over the off season.

He definitely tried to take it on. 99% of players in the league would have side stepped it which was the smart thing to do and would have been beneficial for the team. Almost feel sometimes Viney is just out there to show how tough he is rather than actually play football and help his side win. We don’t need courageous acts that amount to nothing. We need match winners and that’s what a captain should do.

I just want to see more midfield rotation during the game. Collingwood are the best at cycling through their midfield and we need to do it better too. It’s how we are going to overcome our two way running issue. Midfield: Cycle Brayshaw, Oliver, Viney, Harmes, AnB, Melksham, Petracca, Salem, Jones, Garlett. Wings: Cycle through Stretch, Hunt, Brayshaw, Fritsch. Forwards: core players being Tmac, Weid or Smith (whoever is selected), Lockhart. Preuss when not rucking. Defence: Core being Frost, Hore, Omac, Lewis. Hibberd on Breust Hore on Gunston Frost on Roughead Omac on Mitchell Lewis If Preuss plays, they’ll put Ceglar on him.

Pendlebury is the best captain in the AFL. Never makes a bad decision with ball in hand and directs the Pies midfield extremely well.

Being the masochist that I am, I watched the replay this morning. A few more observations: a) Gawn or the coaching staff mistimed his break during the 3rd qtr. While Gawn was on the bench, Nankervis went forward so Frost had to match up on him. This left Hore on Riewoldt and led to Riewoldt kicking two relatively easy goals beating Hore in the air. Once Gawn came back onto the ground he went behind the ball and took some much needed contested marks back there. b) Despite his ball in hand errors, Tmac was actually pretty good. I still think he needs to play forward a long with Preuss. Preuss playing would have changed Richmond's defence completely I feel. Forward line next week has to be Tmac, Preuss and one of Smith of Weideman.I think oMac has to come back or play Keilty or Petty. Gawn will have to play behind the ball again if Mitchell Lewis plays for them given that would equal 3 tall players for them. c) Stack gave Hunt a bath. d) Jones was actually pretty good across half back. He got to every contest in his vicinity that I saw. He's much more suited there rather than on the wing. e) Viney easily could have side-stepped the Stack hit. It's almost like Viney wanted the contact. Just typical of him trying to take players on and failing. f) Stretch was good. Definitely earns a couple more weeks. g) I can't work out what role Harmes was playing either that or he just had a really poor game I felt.

Perhaps Goody’s tenure as coach will mirror that of Nathan Buckley’s? Years 1-2 (2012-13) - afterglow of taking over a good list from a good coach. Played a prelim in those years and made finals the other. Years 3-6 (2014-2017) Actually learns how to coach but fails to make finals for 4 years in a row in the process. Year 7 - Now coaches well and makes a grand final.

Goodwin lauded Viney on SEN before the game saying he personified our brand last week. He was similar last night. The issue is Viney needs to give it off to someone with better foot skills on more occasions. Need Salem in the middle.

This thought has crossed my mind a few times and could seriously keep me up all night if I thought about it more.

The depth issue is killing us. He’s probably equally bitter about Tyson since how he staunchly defended his decision to bring him and Salem in for pick 2 aka Josh Kelly.

Yeah that does seem very grim actually. Part of it might be development though. We don't have a smidgen of the development prowess of a Hawthorn.

Was horribly fumbly though. Think he cost at least 2 in the first qtr.

Fritsch panics with it a bit. We need a good decision maker and a great ball user. Salem normally is both. I'd stick with it for Melksham as well as normally he doesn't turn it over. Although his goal output will definitely drop.

I was listening to SEN on the way in and they interviewed their assistant Adam Kingsley. He mentioned that Hardwick is an amazing presenter, communicator and really knows how to motivate his players. Goody seems very robotic at times, but hopefully he's improving his communication skills a long the way.

We worked on that transition from defensive side to an attacking side over 3 years though... 2014-2016

Couple of observations: a) I respect Goody for making a few changes, but there's a fine line between sticking to your guns (and the plan you have laid out all summer) vs looking desperate. Some of the changes he made tonight smelt of desperation. Notably Brayshaw didn't attend one centre bounce. Not one. And he is our best centre bounce player. Tmac going back made our forward line as impotent as a 95yo man in a nursing home. b) Goodwin keeps on banging on about "Connection". The reason we can't connect with our forward line all comes down to the very last possession going into the 50. We have guys like Oliver who slams it on the boot and bombs it in high, Brayshaw blindly kicking around corners, Viney who rarely makes a good decision with ball in hand. We need that last possession to go to someone with class who can dispose of it. The only people I can think of is Salem and Melksham otherwise the ball is going to keep on bouncing back out of there. Tom Lynch (Ade) is a great example of a connector, Watts was also pretty decent at it as well (he was ranked 1 for kicks that get retained inside the F50 in 2017). c) Richmond's pressure is elite. This makes their back 6 look amazing (although they are good in their own right) as every kick forward from the opposition is under pressure. Collingwood's game plan of keeping off is the only way to beat them. Unfortunately our skill level across the board is so below the Pies we could never execute that game plan d) Richmond home games are horrible for anyone with a GA membership. Since how they have 98k members there's barely any GA seats left because they've farmed out any decent seats as reserved.

Download the MFC app. You can access your membership there with barcode. It’s in the tickets session.

We beat Essendon convincingly last year (albeit at Etihad).

It’s a reciprocal game for members so it might be slightly better. Watch out for QBD to be one sided. Collingwood home game and not reciprocal.