Mach5

Gotta be. Or Ryan.

We’ll be frantically working the phones now to trade back. I can see us just missing Allan & getting Ryan.

I’d love it to happen, but it won’t happen...

I think we’ve done a great job of convincing everyone (the phantom draft experts) that we’ll take Jefferson, but I’m not expecting it to happen in reality (or for all other clubs to be convinced). It’s also the lazy option for the journos.

I think you might be right, but do they have enough? I got the impression both would be around top 5, so would need more points. They might be expecting to get more through losing players again next year too.

Surprised Gold Coast haven’t bit, with them in need of points for academy players next year, although they may think they’re a chance to get them on the relative cheap due to the overall strength of the draft.

Precisely. We’re not blindly trying to get into the top 5; this a targeted attempt. It’s someone we expect to be available at 5, but likely not far after (depending on who is blatantly unwilling to entertain trading their pick). I’d assume one of Ginbey, Allan, Phillipou or Tsatas, and we rate them high enough to consider them worth the haul we received for Jackson. Putting it out there, letting teams marinate on it for a couple of weeks & hoping one comes calling on draft day. I can’t remember where Gold Coast ended up after their trades this year, but surely they’d be keen to acquire future picks for their supposedly blue chip academy players.

Doubtful it would cost more than a F1. Remember GWS have 4 around the top 20, so would be keen to spread that out a bit, works for both. In all likelihood we’re just canvassing GWS to prepare them for an offer if the chips fall a certain way.

I think Jefferson has a chance to slide into the 20s... and we still wouldn’t take him. I just don’t think he has demonstrated he has the tricks to justify such an early pick. Nice hands, nice kick, tall... what else?

It’s not relevant at all, you’re right. All I mean to say that I feel like by the time it gets to our selection, the players we covet will be gone, and we’ll be left picking through the scraps. Lucas Cook was a bad choice for us, but the choice was made (I feel) due to a lack of decent alternative options and possibly a stubborn refusal to carefully scrutinise those outside of our preferences. It was a lazy selection based on AA credentials. Much like BP was known to do, selecting Gysberts seemingly based on AIS membership and someone long forgotten lauding his handballing skills as the best the AIS had seen.

At the time it reeked of selection based on positional needs irrespective of the talent on offer. Lynch was clearly the superior option going into the draft.

Still, I have always had the distinct impression we hitched our star to Tom Lynch, who then ended up going to Gold Coast a pick earlier. Lucas Cook was a hastily-hatched ill-considered back-up plan based off his AA credentials and little more. But we were also hamstrung by the lack of quality alternatives available once our preferred choices were gone.

Getting strong Lucas Cook vibes for this draft...

Again, with the potential of switching to 20 & 26 it might bring Gruz into our calculations. If it’s clear we won’t get a preference, I could see us being happy with a combination of Weddle, Hayes, Clarke & Gruzewksi.

I thought we might be interested in Essendon’s 22 also, but it’s a lot to give up to climb 4 spots up the order. I guess if we only have room for 2 picks it might be worth it, as we wouldn’t use 37 anyway, but I’d still think we’d want a 3rd rounder next year for instance. Particularly if we’re looking at having to match bids for Brown.

I’d think if it becomes clear that Allan is not going to be available at our first pick, we would then be much more inclined to complete a trade like the mooted 13 & 37 for 20 & 26. He’d be our primary target imo.

If he was genuinely a top 10 selection, he still would be after an ACL. He was projected to potentially earn his way into the top 10 if he didn’t injure his ACL. Subtle but significant difference.

And there ya go... exactly what I was quietly worried about.

I get the feeling Geelong are doing just that with their boy Jhye Clark and have no intention of taking him at all. I don’t really see it with him.

Have you been drinking?

Still searching for the funny in this post...

The more I think about it, the less confident I am of us having a player I want available at our first pick. I’d be wholly supportive of us going to a team like Essendon & offering them 13 & our F1 for their F1 & F2/F3. I think we’re better off focusing on loading up next year, unless a gun falls into our lap.

Who is “panicking”? The whole point of succession planning is getting them in early to grow & develop without pressure to come into the side & perform straight away. We shouldn’t ever be drafted for what the player will be next year, rather what they will be to us in 3-5 years. I’m talking about a key role where we will need to replace the incumbent, not a mature body gap-filler for a year or 2.

I wouldn’t be opposed to it. We need to start succession planning for Steven May eventually. I think we were on the lookout for an opportunity to get Gibcus last year for the same reason (idle speculation). If he has a series of hammy issues again, it’d put a serious dent in our credentials.

Great suggestion. The Majak Daw sacrificial lamb for the Casey ruck role, to protect the development of the kids, and a break-in-case-of-emergency piece for the senior ruck position.