deanox

We'll be equally placed to offer a big sum with our senior list changes. Crows came early to see if they could pry him loose when we weren't expecting it. After another season we'll know full well how his foot has healed, and we'll have more exposed form on Petty as a forward. By then we'll know if he is worth the massive pay day we'd need to throw at him, and equally we'll know exactly what we'll demand in return.

And if TMac hadn't done a Lisfrac in 2022, we probably wouldn't be lamenting the situation. In 2022 he had 15 goals from 9 games, his best goals per game average other than 2018. Yeah his overall output may have been down vs 2021 and other standout years but he would have given us a focal point up forward for the last couple of years.

A lot as been said in this thread about Tom and if there is any consensus it's that a fit Tom at his best would be a welcome addition, but we are unsure he'll get back to his best. Personally I don't think it is likely that he gets back there but I will add that if he does hit some heights again I won't be surprised. The reason is that he has traditionally been very slow to recover from injury, to regain fitness and subsequently form. The lisfrac injury derailed his 2022 and in 2023 he never got back up and going, with a follow up surgery on his ankle. It meant that by the time we got finals 2023 he'd effectively had 16 months injured, with only 6 games between 21 May 2022 and the 2023 finals series. Assuming this second surgery on the ankle has cleared everything up properly it is very possible that a full preseason means he bounces back really well fitness wise. If he does we'll be a different team that 2022/2023.

I really think our list management thought they'd get another year (2023) out of Brown or TMac, with 2024 being their transition year and Jefferson maybe playing a few games but coming on in 2025 as a replacement. From a list longevity perspective, I'm kind of happy we didn't sell the farm for a 29 year old KPF this year, and instead recruited Tholstrup who we hope will develop into an A Grader (dangerous impact player). But that strategy does require Jefferson and JVR to come on as expected over the next 2 years.

At his best he is a real weapon, endurance running and deadly accuracy. But as with all "high half forwards" an extended drop of form can make them a liability. I expect Chin and Spargo to be competing with McAdam, Billings and even Tholstrup for those spots this year. I think the competition will be healthy.

I think the 2km time trial is more a measure of endurance (anaerobic capacity) than speed (what is define as "fast" on a footy field). It is absolutely one of Tomlinson's strengths, and has allowed him to play on the wing at GWS and to play on half forwards who roam up the ground. Unfortunately his agility (turning circle and direction change speed) has taken a hit since his ACL, which I think is one of the big things holding him back.

I've got limited knowledge here too but yes I expect Sestan and Kolt to be competing for the same spot, at least initially. Sestan is a lovely kick off the football, and absolutely knows where the goals are. I'm not sure he'd have the tank to play high half forward or push into the midfield at AFL level, but that can be worked on. Sestan said in an interview earlier this year his preference has been to play as a deeper forward, I interpreted that as a small/medium close to goal forward where he could use his strength and skill to kick goals, but that we'd been making him play high half forward at Casey and running/working harder. From what I've seen of Kolt has a mix of strength in the contest, explosive movement (lateral around and through traffic rather than pure burst speed) but his endurance running allows him to comfortably play up the field. He seems to have some versatility: in his junior teams I think he was allowed to play with more freedom, get outside, use the ball and kick goals, whereas in his senior teams he played a role less forward and more mid. I think we think his ceiling is a Petracca type player, maybe Trac/ANB hybrid. Both are taller than Tapscott was. I suspect much better skilled as well.

Engagement!

I can't say I've watched lots of game minutes, but from what I've seen, the following has stood out: He marks the ball at a high point in his leap (a bit like Weid, so probably the source of comparisons) and looks like with a bit more size/strength he'll be a great mark. He has a knack for finding goals. Some are out the back. Some are from loose positions away from his man. But I actually think it's really important that he knows how to create that space and positioning, that he knows how to be a threat through uncontested work. Because when you add the size and strength and contested work to that, he'll do both. A bit like Tom Lynch does.

Amazing kick on this bloke, but fitness is probably the thing holding him back. I think he came from a long way back in that regards, so unsure if it is just that he needs longer to build his tank, or if he has a lower ceiling than typical of elite footballers? If he can make strides in his fitness over this preseason, he might earn another year or two on the list so we can see what he's got.

Yeah for me this trade broke even. In fact with Gawn out for a while, having Grundy probably was key to making the top 4. And the trade had so much potential upside that it was absolutely worth the gamble. Pity we didn't quite find a way to make it work later in the year.

My guess is Brisbane had Wotherspoon lined up at 15 (or 21 or 22) and we knew she wouldn't be there at 23. Most critical part of the draft now, hoping that Rigoni slips past our next pick.

She looks so good in those highlights, long kick, accurate snaps, good agility. I really think Pisano fills a need in our forward line.

We also farewelled Ivy, Johnson and Fowler. So I'm seeing that as 8 players out, 1 in for 7 list spots (assuming everyone else re-signs). We've got 4 top 40 draft picks and pick 74. Are we looking at adding a couple of delisted free agents?

Well looks like Gay is out and Lily Johnson from PA is in, just need to hear what picks we got.

If you are looking for more questions, I'd like to know: 1. Where he sees himself playing his footy long term i.e. as a permanent forward, as a HFF with occasional bursts in the midfield, or eventually transfering to being a primary midfielder who pushes forward (ala Track)? 2. How he has found the fitness demands of the first few pre seasons sessions? For example, he ran top 10 2km TT at the draft combine (6.17), how does that place him at the MFC?

We paid pick 8, 48 and Ashleigh Guest for Birch.

When we pick up Darcy as a free agent at the end of this year, after he chooses to leave because they brought Jackson in, the scales will be firmly tilted in our favour.

Is that Cameron Schwab's new desk?

Please direct any enquiries through @Binmans PA.

We are already a bit of a pantomime with the villains and heros etc.

Fantastic analysis. One thing that isn't considered here is other types of moves: - players moving away from their home state - players moving from an "interstate club" to another "interstate club" and not going home It would be interesting to see if the "go home" factor is any more statistically significant than these other types of moves. I imagine the clubs have done this analysis, understand the likelihood and also have an understanding of factors that may affect a players decision to stay in one place longer term. I wish AFL journalists would present this kind of analysis in an article, rather than published opinion pieces around go home factor.

They are already a partner.

Plus an uncle-son in Pickett.

I feel something like this is a good step for f/d, f/s and academy picks but also the wording here makes me worried. If you hold pick 13 and you use it, and the player is drafted with pick 14-18 (end of first round) do you: a) miss out, because you don't have a live pick in that round? Or b) Have the ability to match because you had a pick in the round? If b) it seems to defeat the purpose and if a) the system seems very hard to navigate. I'd suggest something like: "Payment must include a pick within 1 round (18 picks) of the selection" or "Must hold a pick in the round where the selection is made. If that pick has already been used, must hold a pick in the subsequent round."