deanox

Well Andre Dillon had this to say about us:

I reckon playing them first up, before they've had a chance to gel as a team is probably as good an option as we'll get.

It'll be really interesting to see how we use that, from a fitness and fatigue management perspective.

One thing I think we know is that I'm sure the MFC recruiting team have a good idea of whether they think it will come in enough to generate points!

Good point about it coming in. I havnt counted it all out, so it's possible our 5th round pick will come in enough to have points value this year

@rpfc I flagged the deficit in a post 3 posts above the one you commented on. And for both @rpfcand @Nascent: If there is a bid on Brown at pick 50, then our pick 93 will still be a late pick, and almost certainly later than 73. Sure lots of teams may pass between 50 and 93, bringing our pick higher (let's say it comes in as low as 65), but at the time of the bid, those passes won't have happened yet so our 5th round pick will likely be worth 0 points.

If I was Disco Turner and my spot was taken by a 28 year old mature age recruit from the VFL I'd probably have a good hard look at myself and wonder whether I had what it took to make it at AFL level. We aren't recruiting Darcy Moore to take his spot..we are adding Marty Hire to the list.

Yeah no biting, it's a good question. You can only have as many picks as list spots. We finished 6th for draft purposes so have available: - Pick 6 (traded in from Freo) - Pick 14 (first round) - Pick 36 (second round, traded out to GC) - Pick 42 (second round, JJ compensation) - Pick 57 (third round, traded out last year) - Pick 75 (4th round, traded out to WB last year) - Pick 93 (5th round) Bold are picks we still have. Technically we have up to 4 primary list spots available now, because we are allowed to have 36-38 primary list players, with the number of rookies reducing for each list spot of 36 we use. Only picks that can be used on a primary list spot can be taken into the draft for the purpose of points. I.e. you can't stockpile 8 X 2nd round picks for lots of points if you only have a potential for 3 lost spots. Also pick 73 is worth 9 points, and any pick 74 onwards is worth 0 points. So after pick 42, we have no more points.

I'll add that the f/s points discount is 20% or 197 points, whichever is greater. Pick 56 is designated as 194 points. That means if Kynan is drafted from pick 56 onwards we can match the bid for 0 points. As long as we have a list spot, he is ours if we want him. If he is bid at pick 55 we would need to pay 10 points, at pick 49 we would pay 90 points, at 43 we'd pay 181 points. If this cost got pushed into next year, 37 points is enough to shift pick 18 to 19. 181 points is enough to shift any pick back at least 1 and probably more picks (except for the top 3 picks). So I suspect that unless we rejig our draft hand on the night, we may only match a bid for him if it comes in the mid 50s or later.

I think he now has 3 VFL best and fairest awards, and a third place finish, in his last 4 seasons at VFL level. So he'd be a welcome addition to Casey in terms of quality and he would - at the least - threaten AFL selection. With the departure of Hibberd, Jordan, Dunstan and Harmes, we have lost some of the depth that drives standards and potentially fills gaps. I agree we need to make the case. But I suspect the case is pretty easy. $90k plus match payments is better than VFL payments. Plus a second life line to for an AFL career at a probable finalist is one last change to roll the dice on the dream, that was taken away by an ACL, a broken collarbone and a quad the first time. He played 14 games in his first AFL season. Combined with consistently being the best player in his VFL team I reckon he would back himself in to be AFL capable and live that dream. And if he didn't, we wouldn't really want him on the list anyway.

There was some early talk that we will play Sydney in Sydney in the "round 0" concept. I don't mind this as it will give us an extra bye during the year. Has anyone seen this been confirmed anywhere?

Yeah absolutely agree, I hate it for when we play. But it's great for tv in the background at home. I am more likely to consume more football games when they are on tv Monday and Thursday nights, compared to say Sat or Sunday arvos. My thoughts are, if the AFL is going to use Monday and Thursday then it needs to be consistent. Not selected weeks only.

Honestly I agree with this. I don't love them from an attendance perspective, but I was a big fan of having Monday and Thursday nights on tv. I found it very hard to follow when some Mondays and Thursdays had games and when the start times of Friday night games kept changing around. Having a consistent product is so important for tv.

They were brutal against us last week and on their game again today. I'd also note 18 contested marks today (9 each) is quite a high number and contributed to the high quality game I saw.

Yup home final if we make it unless: We lose tomorrow, but make the final by beating Brisbane in the prelim, and Adelaide beat North in the prelim.

If he was drafted he would have to be a pretty unique journey wouldn't he? - VFL best and fairest in 2017 and 2018. - Drafted 2018 as a mature age recruit (22 years old). - Played 14 AFL games in 2019. - No games in 2020 or 2021 (injured most of 2021 I think). - Delisted and went back to the VFL: --2022: playing for North Melbourne (3rd in their best and fairest, behind winner Dom Tyson for trivia buffs) and named in the VFL team of the year --2023: playing for Williamstown, won their best and fairest and named in the VFL team of the year. - Back on AFL list in 2024, age 28?

Also there is a 20% (or 197) points discount for f/s. So I think if a bid comes after 56 we pay zero points to match and just need a list spot. I doubt we will be willing to take a points deficit into next year, which would devalue our first pick. So my gut says we are only going to only take him if after pick 56 (ie we won't match a bid earlier than that). Unless we trade out 42 for a future pick plus a late pick (I think it would need to be in the 50s) which covers the points.

Yeah I expect that if we use 6 and 11, then we'll look to trade 42 out for a future pick and make sure we have enough assets (late points or rookie picks) as needed to draft Kynan, assuming we intend on drafting Kynan.

I think we've seen how important Paxy is, with her missing against both Adelaide and Brisbane. She's smart and runs all day. And having that extra top level mid makes a massive difference.

Just checking: Has Kynan nominated MFC for f/s (giving us the opportunity to draft him under f/s rules) or has MFC committed to taking him as f/s? He can nominate but that doesn't mean the club is committed to taking him.

I hope that anyone upset about "club culture" at the moment is also not upset about the recruitment and retention (in 2024) of Ben Brown.

She might be a boxer and she might play physically but she doesn't seem to have basic self control issue, like many of the AFLM players do. Lashing out with a fist is likely more an issue with emotional regulation than boxing skill.

Agree..I've watched every game but only got to attend one. Fixturing has made it impossible (Geelong a Thursday night Frankston at 5pm on Friday). It feels like it's just heating up and we're almost done again. I know the bottom handful of sides probably don't have 17 competitive weeks in them, but something has to be done.

Im also surprised that anyone would jump to a conclusion around "what transpired between his family and the MFC". Given we are constantly seeing families involved at the MFC including potential future f/s selections.

If we don't draft him I suspect there will be a pretty strong reason, not an accident. Given we have been planning our list for a long time and known about Brown. Maybe we have too many small players? Maybe we don't need another late draft flanker/mid? Maybe we don't think he's attributes will translate to AFL or our game plan? Maybe we don't rate him in the top X picks and feel we already have similar better young talent?