Everything posted by deanox
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Jeff White - Analysis
To adapt a quote: The AFL is a lucky sport run mainly by second rate people who share its luck.
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Jeff White - Analysis
I actually think the lack of this type of content is deliberate. It's expensive to make compared to the usual boys club bravado [censored]. You need intelligent people, and media outlets will have to bid for them. Many of the genuinely astute people are already in coaching, and they probably don't do "media" as naturally. Also, the AFL wants to control all the media revenue. To get access to footage to use in this type of analysis costs a fortune. It's possible that the secondary camera angles not shown on the broadcast are not even available to anyone outside the official broadcaster. All the real stats are locked behind Champion Data, a company that is majority owned by the AFL. We get a smattering of BS stats that have been published for years and some extra stuff that sounds fancy but isn't useful published via the AFL app etc. Non-accredited AFL media can't access this stuff, and the AFL won't accredit direct competitors taking revenue of the main broadcaster. So in effect, the AFL locks down all footage and data that is needed for analysis, restricts it to the big paying broadcast partner, and suffocates any competition that it won't receive revenue from. As a result, the official broadcaster doesn't actually need to provide a high quality product to compete in the market. They have a monopoly.
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Kozzy Homesick & Wants to Leave?
A GM of football is responsible for managing the football department budget, and for managing the performance of the football department staff (coaches, fitness staff, recruitment, etc). Relationships are important for all roles, including the GM of football. But it isn't just about being a great bloke everyone loves.
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Time to go Goody?
Great call. And what about all the tactical innovations before Yze joined us (his first year was 2021)? Over the last decade we have worked out way through at least three distinct phases of "scoring strategy": Strategy designed to reduce opposition shot conversion percentage, while providing us extra numbers around the contest. (Opposition potentially gets quantity but low quality).(Think Diamond Defence era). After that we played a "centre at all costs" strategy, where we gave the ball off to someone 30 m out straight in front every time, to maximise accuracy/conversion (shot quality not quantity) From there we moved to the extreme forward press with repeat entries (quantity not quality). That won us a flag and got us top 4 for 3 years in a row. On top of that we have had a constantly evolving tactics around "defence, contest, and transition" that has supported the scoring strategy. This has included various defensive zone structures including Diamond Defence, and others including where we push a player up to contest, leave a man free out the back and back ourselves to work back faster than opposition transitiona. We've had contested ball tactics that have utilised +1 at the contest and -1 at the contest. We've used kick it long to Max and force a stoppage tactics. We've had play on at all cost tactics too. Now we use 45 degree cut out passes, short chips to retain possession. We use forward handballs. I'm sure Goodwin has had substantial support from his assistant coaches with these innovations and changes over the years. But my bet is we would find that he is an innovative tactical thinker, who uses sport science and data/stats to drive plans, and that even though he might not be the guy coming up with every plan, he is the guy leading those plans and encouraging his team to do that analysis and make those changes. This doesn't mean I don't think he will have an effective shelf life as coach, that he can get stale, or lose the players. It doesn't mean I don't think he is under significant pressure. But I do think,from a reasonable outside perspective, he has runs on the board (including 3 successive top 4 finishes with a flag) that means he should be allowed to see through his transition to a new strategy and game plan, unless something has gone wrong at the relationship level.
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We're Not Dead Yet - The 2025 Season
I've been encouraging him to have more showers ever since!
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We're Not Dead Yet - The 2025 Season
I reckon Melksham showed why the vast majority of supporters and coaches might think that way today. It's a faint heart beat but it's there. And if we can sneak into the 8, I bet no one will want to play us.
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GAMEDAY: Rd 10 vs Brisbane
Oliver's goal!
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GAMEDAY: Rd 10 vs Brisbane
You'd think it was Melkshams call, but I agree entirely.
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GAMEDAY: Rd 10 vs Brisbane
Oliver's goal.
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GAMEDAY: Rd 10 vs Brisbane
Yeah ridiculous. Let's drop him. He is only leading our disposals (with 12 at 92% disposal efficiency), our tackles (with 2) and our clearances (4), while being accountable for Lachie Neale.
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PREGAME: Rd 10 vs Brisbane
When the match committee doesn't make changes Goodwin is stubborn, and has favourites. When the match committee makes changes, Goodwin is trying to save his career instead of letting players develop. When the match committee doesn't pick kids, Goodwin is letting them languish at VFL and is the reason they leave. When the match committee picks kids and they don't perform, Goodwin isn't developing kids properly. When the match committee doesn't drop senior players to play afringe, Goodwin doesn't have selection integrity and plays favourites When the match committee drops senior players and fringe players who aren't AFL standard, then Goodwin has no idea and keeps selecting duds. We aren't winning games, so there is critism no matter what happens. I personally don't think they've got the selection right this week. The side is unbalanced. But the constant slagging of "selection integrity" is ridiculous.
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Welcome to Demonland Matthew Jefferson
From watching him at Casey I always felt he was a third tall, not a true KPF. I think his upside is as a taller version of Fritsch. But that is a really hard role to play when we already have Fritsch and Melksham effectively competing for that role, and we don't really have first or second talls in place either due to injury/form/etc.
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GAMEDAY: Rd 09 vs Hawthorn
Being umpired out of this
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Training Ground?
They can have Goshes Paddock once the AFL help fund our new home base...
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PREGAME: Rd 09 vs Hawthorn
These things are always a bit odd, but this seems a good cause. If the cheers squad is driving it, I reckon they'll get some crowd support. If it's just some random trying to start it himself, well it'll be over pretty quickly!
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Goal Kicking - Bring back the fatties
If Jake Lever is allowed to be a roaming third man while his opponent sits 80m behind the play, I'm all for an opposition coach trying this strategy. I promise you that allowing teams to play 18 v 17, and hoping you get it out the back to the free man will not work. That being said, I do wonder if the "deepest" forwards should look to play aggressively. Making earlier and occassionally deeper runs behind the defenders to try to drag the defense out of shape. The best forwards move like this, you can see it at the ground.
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Todd Patterson departs Demons for Devils
Todd Patterson, our AFLW List Manager, has accepted a role as Head of List Management and Strategy for the new Tasmanian team. From the article he will be involved with their AFL, VFL, AFLW and VFLW lists. Todd has been with the dees for 8 years, including the last 6 as list manager,so has been a big part of our AFLWs program including building the list that won the 2022 premiership. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-05/tasmania-devils-afl-aflw-list-managers-recruited/105245970
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The Melksham incident
Petty did cop one high early, so it's possible the second impact set him over. I read a study (a few years old now and from the NFL) where cumulative knocks during the same match/training session resulted in the individual impact threshold for concussions ll decreasing (basically after multiple knocks, it only took a small knock to concuss).
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The Melksham incident
I thought this was pretty bad as he didn't seem have eyes for the ball and was watching Viney, and then got him with a round arm fist.
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The Melksham incident
Melksham had eyes for the ball and protected the drop and took the mark. However, Reuben Ginbey pushed Petty directly into the oncoming contest of McGovern and Melksham despite not being in the contest himself. Ginbey had no possible way of marking that ball. He had lost the positioning battle to Petty who could have dropped in front of McGovern to attempt to mark. And when he lost that battle, he chose to simply push Petty to a) stop Petty taking the mark, and b) to make sure that his opponent (Petty) was off his feet/unbalanced while Ginbey remained ready to crumb off the pack. It's against the rules to push a player attempting to mark a ball if you aren't trying to mark yourself. Ginbey pushed Petty into oncoming traffic while not trying to win the ball, resulting in concussion of both McGovern and Petty. And Ginbey has priors for pushing players into oncoming traffic once he loses the contest - it resulted in Lalor breaking his jaw preseason.
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PREGAME: Rd 09 vs Hawthorn
Conversely, if Hawthorn beat Richmond today, they will have beaten 5 of the bottom 8 sides, with their only other win coming in Tasmania against the 8th placed GWS. And lost to PA and Geelong.
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Training Ground?
Reading our annual report from last year, it appears the Casey Demons FC is a subsidiary of the Melbourne Football Club (or something along those lines).
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The brutal 10-week fixture
The upside is that we have only one short break in that period, with 7+ days every round except for the PA match.
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The Next CEO
Reality bus. Fugazi. The list goes on!
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The Next CEO
I'd rather a CEO who is a fantastic strategic thinker and overall business manager than a big footy person. More than half the staff at the MFC would work in commercial related departments, not in the footy department. Sure the purpose of the corporate services is to support the football department (including raising revenue to allow it to run) but the footy department is a relatively small part of the organisation. In my opinion if the CEO is regularly making football department decisions, then we would likely have a very inefficient organisation.