deanox

"Time on ground" might not equal "hard running" but for midfielders who run around with the ball as the key part of their game, it's fair to say it equals high endurance and on field recovery ability, vs being a "burst" player. Addong two elite endurance runners to the mix definitely frees up our other mid to rest up occasionally.

I think it's clear the footy department rate him higher than the general supporter base, and I wonder if they feel he hasn't really had a run to show what he can do the last two years? Like ANB he has a good engine, covers a lot of ground and goes all day: he has mainly played in the wing role at AFL level, but is unlikely he'll do that again for Melbourne. I've always felt that he doesn't do a lot wrong, but he just doesn't really damage with ball in hand. With 3 lost spots and picks 3, 8, 97 and 115, I'm not sure that I'd delist either JKH or Stretch just so I can use pick 115, but I think Stretch goes first.

I'd rather 6 and a player than 3, if we can get someone who is best 22.

Supporters 2017-2018: Goodwin's a terrible coach, he plays Oscar McDonald, who's terrible, and his game plan sucks! Goodwin: learns about key rule changes that will affect his team's game plan, due to a weakness in his playing roster and takes proactive steps to fill that hole by trading in an opposition captain and trading out a player with currency, but who is also a future flight risk and under an injury cloud. Supporters 2019: Why did you trade away drafting opportunities? You only care about short term results!

Could now trade 3 to St K for 12 and 18? Is 8, 12 and 18 is better than 3, 26, 50 and ~16-24 in 2020?

Yeah we'd need to get something else back: the value isn't there in what is written. But also, apparently next year's draft is super compromised. 17 of the 48 players selected for the under 17 all stars side (arguably the best players for best year's draft) are academy or father son players, plus GC priority picks. So perhaps our first pick might not be until the 20s?

On trading: I just realized that we have traded out all picks in the first 5 rounds except 3, 26 and 50. We also currently have 3 list spots. So instead of just focusing on the total points traded, the Frost and Lagdon trades might also need to be viewed in terms of "giving away picks we were going to use anyway". That being said, Stretch and JKH are still OOC. Maybe a pick comes back from GC for Stretch (58, 78 or 90). Maybe we split pick 3 to two top 20 picks and delist JKH.

Yeah that's fine. I'm not convinced he'll make it, but I would think it's unfair to say he wasn't showing something in his first year, and the disposal to score involvement ratio shows he did manage to find himself involved in scoring chains at a higher rate than a lot of players. That might be coincidental, given our high scoring, but it does seem to support my observations. I won't be unhappy if he makes it, that's for sure.

I strongly disagree with this. The reason he kept getting games was because the disposals he was getting were high value. In 2018, he averaged 12.2 disposals and 5.2 score involvements. That's 414th for average disposals but 134th for score involvements, which indicates reach of his disposals was much more likely to contribute to us scoring than your average player. My impression of Spargo was that he was regularly "creating value": a clever knock to advantage, changing lanes to get us clear, finding a man in space instead of taking the first option. I wanted to see him get 20 touches instead of 12, to be truly damaging. But I thought there was enough clever stuff there to give him time.

Some are going to struggle to fit this into their "Goodwin is the worst coach ever" narative...

I find this hard to believe. Surely the GPS and player highlights for most key players would be readily available through your own stats and opposition analysis team and champion data etc. When analyzing opposition teams they wouldn't prep this stuff weekly.

A lot to like. Goal sense. 50+ m kicks for goals. Stronng overhead, and under physical pressure, marking. Ability to get on the end of possession chains and also find himself in space (ie not squeezing a kick out while under pressure).

Assuming in 2020 we finish 6th, Hawthorn 8th and Freo 9th. In: 50, Hawthorns future 2nd (30) Out: 42, 61, our future 4th (72), Frost In: Langdon, 26, Freos future 4th (63) Out: 22, 79, our future 2nd (32), The sum of that in points is: In: Langdon Out: Frost and pick 53 (~253 points) Swap ladder positions and it changes, but it looks pretty good to me.

Today's wrap: Upgrading a NQR defender who is borderline best 22 when everyone is fit, and who constantly breaks team rules and structures but is exciting, for a top 5-10 player who is only 23 and fills a specific need, for the equivalent cost of ~pick 52. Today was a win.

I wouldn't say we won the trade. But given we clearly didn't rate Frost, it's a positive outcome because we recieved some value for a surplus player.

Make him list manager

Garlett was the only true small forward we had (Not counting players like Chandler or others who haven't played AFL). Others like ANB and JKH are playing half forward and racking up km's, and also playing forward. Spargo's best footy in 2018 wasn't as a goal kicker but as a play maker, someone who would create space or opportunity when they found the ball at half forward or running: he was rarely crumbing. Hannan and others are more medium forwards. I think we need to add at least one experienced player who can play this role to the list.

No worries. Watching this positioning over 3 GWS games helped me see value to us too. We have struggled on the wings, and I think it's because of lack ofstructure and smart positioning, not because of lack of foot speed (which I think is overrated compared to fast ball movement). This is why we tried "old heads" like Lewis and Jones out there. 2 way endurance running is one of the most important attributes in the modern game but it means nothing if you run mindlessly.

I watching the AFL player tracker (live player GPS position during matches) during the finals to see where players from top clubs were moving. It was interesting to watch Tomlinson constantly take the "fat side" wing, dropping just behind the play in the hole. His role seemed to be a defensive winger, whose fast movement to position and aerial ability prevented the opposition from switching play, stopped a loose man getting space out the back. He found his way forward, trying to slip behind defense when GWS attacked: as he was on the far wing, he wasn't making the play but he was forcing opponents to match up on him and defend, so they couldn't be elsewhere. He isn't a high possession winner but his positioning seemed critical to defending and to providing options in attack. I also watched him compete against Grundy. Not fantastic but held his own, better than our pinch hitters do.

I hate it, but it also stops clubs gaming the system. Offering specific contracts to get it over the line for compo etc.

Remember that when we're tested for him it was pre 666 and we were regularly playing a full zone defense with no one on one. The game plan saw all players responsible to zone and intercept and small, faster players like Jetta sprint back and around if the opposition had a spare player drop forward unmarked. Lever's acquisition in this context was a massive win. He was the premier zone defender in the competition and strengthened our game plan. No one could have foreseen the 666 changes. So hindsight is wonderful. He is only 23 though. Will his trade be a win for us? We've still got 8-10 years to figure that out. Assuming he is a mainstay of our defense and plays well in that time then two 1st round picks is reasonable: they are 50% chance at best anyway. It's hard to judge him on 2019. Its clear he needs time to find the pace of the game and find connection with other players within a disorganised defensive unit. His leadership was very apparent immediately. He did some nice things but struggled for touch in others. I think he gets a pass mark as a poster coming back from injury in a team getting belted, but he'll need to step up a touch next year to get the same.

You keep saying this, except he plays on a wing. That's his best position. Here is his possession heat map for 2019. The one showing the hotspots on the wings, a bit in the centre, the defensive flanks and dropping back to full back (but never going near CHB), and occasionally drifting forward on the flanks? That's Tomlinson.

His strengths seem to be elite athletic endurance, understanding of required field position/structure, and his height. This absolutely makes him a modern defensive wingman, who gut runs all day to always be defensive side of the opposition, preventing them getting "out the back" or getting the overlap, and quickly plugging the hole when they switch the play. This is an intelligent role, because you need to know even to hang back or when to push forward. His height is an advantage for the bail out kick. He will also push forward to link or threaten when we have the ball. This isn't a high possession or obvious impact role, but it is structurally critical. ANB has been our most successful in this role. JKH has played it when in the side. I think this is what we've tried to use Jones as when he has played on the wing. It isn't an attacking wing role, using pace and/or great kicking to set up attacks. We definitely lack this role, and it is probably what we use our high half forwards for. Harmes plays this role a lot. Elliot and Langdon both would as well.

I agree that OMac really struggled in 2019. I think up until last year we were building to play a disciplined full field zone style game. It required players to follow rules to a tee, read the play intercept, drop off, and play safe within the system when in defense. OMac could do this. We added Lever because he was the best at this. But 666 changed this and lock down defenders became a necessity. We brought May in as an anchor, but he was injured. Lever is probably second choice but he too was injured. Frost is our best defender when it comes to stopping leads, but he gets himself out of position too much to fit our structure. I am definitely concerned about Oscar going forward, and do think Frosts speed is a desirable attribute. But I can see why the club maumy not want to kick him in on a large contract. His turnovers might not look "high" on paper, but by messing with our structures we either turn it over immediately, or after he gets rid of it. This impact on future position and diaposals shouldn't be forgotten.

Oscar is a zone player, not a one on one defender. With May and Lever firing he'll play his role as third defender just fine. Not great, nor elite but capable. He rarely costs us unless we ask him to play outside of his capabilities/ strengths. Frost constantly ruined our "connection". His spectacular runs cause all others to get caught out of position. He costs us because his strengths don't suit our plan. Frost isn't good enough for us to change our game plan for, so if he won't adapt, he goes.