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Everything posted by deanox
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Yeah that's fine. I'm not convinced he'll make it, but I would think it's unfair to say he wasn't showing something in his first year, and the disposal to score involvement ratio shows he did manage to find himself involved in scoring chains at a higher rate than a lot of players. That might be coincidental, given our high scoring, but it does seem to support my observations. I won't be unhappy if he makes it, that's for sure.
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I strongly disagree with this. The reason he kept getting games was because the disposals he was getting were high value. In 2018, he averaged 12.2 disposals and 5.2 score involvements. That's 414th for average disposals but 134th for score involvements, which indicates reach of his disposals was much more likely to contribute to us scoring than your average player. My impression of Spargo was that he was regularly "creating value": a clever knock to advantage, changing lanes to get us clear, finding a man in space instead of taking the first option. I wanted to see him get 20 touches instead of 12, to be truly damaging. But I thought there was enough clever stuff there to give him time.
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Some are going to struggle to fit this into their "Goodwin is the worst coach ever" narative...
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I find this hard to believe. Surely the GPS and player highlights for most key players would be readily available through your own stats and opposition analysis team and champion data etc. When analyzing opposition teams they wouldn't prep this stuff weekly.
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A lot to like. Goal sense. 50+ m kicks for goals. Stronng overhead, and under physical pressure, marking. Ability to get on the end of possession chains and also find himself in space (ie not squeezing a kick out while under pressure).
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Assuming in 2020 we finish 6th, Hawthorn 8th and Freo 9th. In: 50, Hawthorns future 2nd (30) Out: 42, 61, our future 4th (72), Frost In: Langdon, 26, Freos future 4th (63) Out: 22, 79, our future 2nd (32), The sum of that in points is: In: Langdon Out: Frost and pick 53 (~253 points) Swap ladder positions and it changes, but it looks pretty good to me.
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Today's wrap: Upgrading a NQR defender who is borderline best 22 when everyone is fit, and who constantly breaks team rules and structures but is exciting, for a top 5-10 player who is only 23 and fills a specific need, for the equivalent cost of ~pick 52. Today was a win.
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I wouldn't say we won the trade. But given we clearly didn't rate Frost, it's a positive outcome because we recieved some value for a surplus player.
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Make him list manager
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Garlett was the only true small forward we had (Not counting players like Chandler or others who haven't played AFL). Others like ANB and JKH are playing half forward and racking up km's, and also playing forward. Spargo's best footy in 2018 wasn't as a goal kicker but as a play maker, someone who would create space or opportunity when they found the ball at half forward or running: he was rarely crumbing. Hannan and others are more medium forwards. I think we need to add at least one experienced player who can play this role to the list.
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No worries. Watching this positioning over 3 GWS games helped me see value to us too. We have struggled on the wings, and I think it's because of lack ofstructure and smart positioning, not because of lack of foot speed (which I think is overrated compared to fast ball movement). This is why we tried "old heads" like Lewis and Jones out there. 2 way endurance running is one of the most important attributes in the modern game but it means nothing if you run mindlessly.
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I watching the AFL player tracker (live player GPS position during matches) during the finals to see where players from top clubs were moving. It was interesting to watch Tomlinson constantly take the "fat side" wing, dropping just behind the play in the hole. His role seemed to be a defensive winger, whose fast movement to position and aerial ability prevented the opposition from switching play, stopped a loose man getting space out the back. He found his way forward, trying to slip behind defense when GWS attacked: as he was on the far wing, he wasn't making the play but he was forcing opponents to match up on him and defend, so they couldn't be elsewhere. He isn't a high possession winner but his positioning seemed critical to defending and to providing options in attack. I also watched him compete against Grundy. Not fantastic but held his own, better than our pinch hitters do.
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I hate it, but it also stops clubs gaming the system. Offering specific contracts to get it over the line for compo etc.
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Remember that when we're tested for him it was pre 666 and we were regularly playing a full zone defense with no one on one. The game plan saw all players responsible to zone and intercept and small, faster players like Jetta sprint back and around if the opposition had a spare player drop forward unmarked. Lever's acquisition in this context was a massive win. He was the premier zone defender in the competition and strengthened our game plan. No one could have foreseen the 666 changes. So hindsight is wonderful. He is only 23 though. Will his trade be a win for us? We've still got 8-10 years to figure that out. Assuming he is a mainstay of our defense and plays well in that time then two 1st round picks is reasonable: they are 50% chance at best anyway. It's hard to judge him on 2019. Its clear he needs time to find the pace of the game and find connection with other players within a disorganised defensive unit. His leadership was very apparent immediately. He did some nice things but struggled for touch in others. I think he gets a pass mark as a poster coming back from injury in a team getting belted, but he'll need to step up a touch next year to get the same.
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You keep saying this, except he plays on a wing. That's his best position. Here is his possession heat map for 2019. The one showing the hotspots on the wings, a bit in the centre, the defensive flanks and dropping back to full back (but never going near CHB), and occasionally drifting forward on the flanks? That's Tomlinson.
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His strengths seem to be elite athletic endurance, understanding of required field position/structure, and his height. This absolutely makes him a modern defensive wingman, who gut runs all day to always be defensive side of the opposition, preventing them getting "out the back" or getting the overlap, and quickly plugging the hole when they switch the play. This is an intelligent role, because you need to know even to hang back or when to push forward. His height is an advantage for the bail out kick. He will also push forward to link or threaten when we have the ball. This isn't a high possession or obvious impact role, but it is structurally critical. ANB has been our most successful in this role. JKH has played it when in the side. I think this is what we've tried to use Jones as when he has played on the wing. It isn't an attacking wing role, using pace and/or great kicking to set up attacks. We definitely lack this role, and it is probably what we use our high half forwards for. Harmes plays this role a lot. Elliot and Langdon both would as well.
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I agree that OMac really struggled in 2019. I think up until last year we were building to play a disciplined full field zone style game. It required players to follow rules to a tee, read the play intercept, drop off, and play safe within the system when in defense. OMac could do this. We added Lever because he was the best at this. But 666 changed this and lock down defenders became a necessity. We brought May in as an anchor, but he was injured. Lever is probably second choice but he too was injured. Frost is our best defender when it comes to stopping leads, but he gets himself out of position too much to fit our structure. I am definitely concerned about Oscar going forward, and do think Frosts speed is a desirable attribute. But I can see why the club maumy not want to kick him in on a large contract. His turnovers might not look "high" on paper, but by messing with our structures we either turn it over immediately, or after he gets rid of it. This impact on future position and diaposals shouldn't be forgotten.
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Oscar is a zone player, not a one on one defender. With May and Lever firing he'll play his role as third defender just fine. Not great, nor elite but capable. He rarely costs us unless we ask him to play outside of his capabilities/ strengths. Frost constantly ruined our "connection". His spectacular runs cause all others to get caught out of position. He costs us because his strengths don't suit our plan. Frost isn't good enough for us to change our game plan for, so if he won't adapt, he goes.
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Yeah I'd have him at ~20-25. I'm thinking 30 and 47, for Frost and 58 might get it done. I'd consider that. He's 28 yeah? Seems a reasonable deal for both parties.
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Yeah he has publically stated he wants to come to Melbourne, that's why it's gone quiet. If it gets noisy again, we worry.
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Amazing tank. Good long distance speed. Like ANB and JKH in that respect, and given its importance to our game plan, it's an attribute our coaching team rate. Very well liked, great team man. Unsure how that translates to leadership. Can play 3rd KPF or KPD, can punch hit in the ruck, but most successful position has been wing. Would be fine playing with Lever and May as the third defender. Best 12? Possibly. Best 10-15? Definitely. Personally, I think his versatility would make him one of the first picked, even if you have 10-15 players ahead of him on skill. We don't have many players who can successfully switch around the field, giving us cover for match day injuries but also at selection.
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Well if they win, they'll take displace us as the most recent team to win a grand final from 6th (in 1900).
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He has played mainly down back until 2018 when he moved to the wing to cover injuries to Scully, so it's not out of position.
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Frost might look exciting on TV but as a defender he is a coaches nightmare. He makes poor decisions regarding when to leave his main and when to stay, and he overcommits in attack, causing his team mates to be out of position when he finally kicks it and leaving himself out of position when he turns it over. Tomlinson isn't as exciting, isn't as fast, isn't as line breaking or attacking, but he is more likely to play a role around Lever, May, Jetta, Hibberd, Salem etc. He also has the versatility of playing on the wing with discipline (our issue isn't pace on the wing as much as it is players who knows when to go and when to stay), competing in the ruck and drifting forward. Edit: I'm not saying I'd make this swap, but I can understand the potential reasoning, especially considering Goodwin is a tactics, positioning, team rules type coach.
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Breaking even in ruck against Grundy in D50, and getting involved in the contest on the ground with a few tackles, sheppards, etc.