Anyone see us having a realistic chance this year or possibly next year?

Not only will we make the finals this upcoming season but we will smash Geelong in the Grand Final thus creating glorious history and erecting a tent in my jim-jammies

Not only will we make the finals this upcoming season but we will smash Geelong in the Grand Final thus creating glorious history and erecting a tent in my jim-jammies

dont get too excited mate

Every chance next year

Couldn't give a stuff about finals. Premiership is all I'm thinking about...

I watched the Roos this year, all year claim they were changing the perceptions of the football world about their quality. I still don't rate them, and even while they were playing good footy I didn't. I thought absolutely best case scenarios they get a nice finals run and get bundled out in a prelim. They were disgraced, and that was as far as they were ever going to go this year.

Mediocre "success" can be a curse. Now I'm not advocating a complete bottom out, no-one likes tankers (Blues), but I don't care if it takes 5 years, I want a solid list that could win a premiership, and nothing in between. There are a bunch of guys that are good enough to be premiership players, but we don't have 22 of them...

And don't give me this "Geelong did it" stuff... They had a solid list and had the courage, after a TERRIBLE season, to hang onto the quality (Thompson) and get rid of the dead wood (Kinsley). They had a LOT of luck, and a LOT of Father/Son fortune, and their strength paid the ultimate dividend.

Trading Trapper for, presumably, a player who will take a few years to hit his stride, was not the way to go to win a flag NEXT YEAR. YES it was likely the right choice that we will be applauding when Travis retires and we have a new star, but for 2008 it was like reaching into your pocket for the white flag...

So to answer your question:

I think ultimately we just don't have the cattle to go all the way. Yes, I am picking us to make finals... and to restore some measure of pride, but that's about it...

Having said that...

I FULLY expect the demons, particularly Brock, Bate, Bell, Neitz, Robbo, Rivers, Jones, Moloney and others to come out absolutely breathing fire next year. And when we get to round 10-12 and we've done some carnage, EVERYONE will be expecting them to fall over as we do every year... And that's when Brock McLean will come to the fore and go supernova in the middle of the MCG destroying everything in his path... If this happens (And it will have to have a lot to do with Dean) THEN we will have healed the damage of last season to some degree. But only if we break this pattern that's become so ingrained in our players of falling over after the halfway mark. This is a very new young list that everyone in MFC and beyond has acknowledged holds our fate in their hands. It's no longer up to Yze, Green, Bruce and co to let it slide...

Come mid-season next year, maybe the year after if we have another injury horror run, Dean Bailey will have won over his supporters if he can do the above...

Trading Trapper for, presumably, a player who will take a few years to hit his stride, was not the way to go to win a flag NEXT YEAR. YES it was likely the right choice that we will be applauding when Travis retires and we have a new star, but for 2008 it was like reaching into your pocket for the white flag...

So to answer your question:

Dappa, For any club to win a flag a number of things need to go right. For MFC to win given its financial and other disadvantages we need alot to go right.

I also hope that a sense of professional and personal pride hits hard amongst the MFC playing group and hope DB can instil some of the necessary atttributes.

But I cant see how retaining a skillful player who is perenially inconsistent and an underperformer with a lazy, questionable attitude on and off the ground and has the questionable leadership maturity is a component of a flag. When I look at the thoroughness and commitment of Geelong and the work rate of their players when they dont have the ball, I wonder where would TJ fit into that side? The answer he wouldn't either by the Coach's discipline or the strong players culture. Both areas have been poor at MFC and we have allowed "star" players to operate on their terms. Hopefully DB stamps that out.

At 28, I am not sure TJ can turn it around attitude wise. There will be games where Brisbane [censored] sides and TJ picks up a silky 35 possessions and posters will moan we made a mistake. But they will strangely silent when the following week Brisbane gets flogged and TJ is invisible, looks apathetic and picks up few touches.

Trading TJ also sends a message about culture change and what is expected and accepted at MFC. Brock McLean summed it up and he is one that needs to walk the walk after last year. We wont be successful without a successful culture.

Dappa, For any club to win a flag a number of things need to go right. For MFC to win given its financial and other disadvantages we need alot to go right.

I also hope that a sense of professional and personal pride hits hard amongst the MFC playing group and hope DB can instil some of the necessary atttributes.

Spot On. making finals in 2008 is not the priority. What we must see is a sound structure and solid platform for consistent finals perfomances going fwd. Want to see sensible attractive footy in 2008 and development of young playing group into solid team with sound defence and systematic game plans. Players may take a little while adjusting from the ND playing style to DB style. So may mean MFC does not win majority of games in 2008. perhaps b/w 8 and12 position would be Ok as long as we can see progress and good structures. Platform for proper crack at top 4 in 2009 and 2010. May sneak into the 8 but would be a bonus.(7 or 8 doesnt matter other than giving finals experience to youngest players).

MFC supporters will rally for the 150th if the club addresses the off field shortcomings and DB and CC have the right impact on footy department, which seem to be having so far. As nearly November time is fast approaching for us to find out.

..Want to see sensible attractive footy in 2008 and development of young playing group into solid team with sound defence and systematic game plans...

Yeah that's the goal for next season anything more is a bonus

If you look at my post, I was not bemoaning Trav's trading. Only raising the point that it's proof that we are not looking at a flag next year. Even if he had stayed we still would not be looking at a flag.

I support the trade wholeheartedly, and looking at how the Voldemort/Bell trade has worked out, it was absolutely the right choice, even if pick 14 is a fizzer. You've got to be in it to win it.

We're on the same page, I think you'll find.

If you look at my post, I was not bemoaning Trav's trading. Only raising the point that it's proof that we are not looking at a flag next year. Even if he had stayed we still would not be looking at a flag.

I support the trade wholeheartedly, and looking at how the Voldemort/Bell trade has worked out, it was absolutely the right choice, even if pick 14 is a fizzer. You've got to be in it to win it.

We're on the same page, I think you'll find.

I note we are on the same page but......

If trading TJ proves that we are not looking at a flag next year and that if we did not trade TJ and he stayed then we would still no be looking at a flag, then how do two opposite actions necessarily prove the same outcome? What does trading TJ prove?

I dont think trading TJ makes that statement necessarily. It does address the cancerous soft lazy culture at MFC then is a clearly barrier to winning a flag. It was clearly a judgement also about getting more value for an underperforming 28yo with a bad attitude than doing so when the aforesaid is 29 and out of contract.

Anyone see us having a realistic chance this year or possibly next year?

Nup this year we're well and truly fuc... Next season we need to look for development from they under 23s.

I knew you'd say that...

Ok...

The title of the thread was how long til we make finals... I say we could make them next year but we couldn't win a flag.

Trav has his problems, but is a proven finals performer. Despite all his foibles, if you had the list around him that were capable of having a tilt (we all thought we had that list at the start of the year) then you'd hang onto him as he WILL win games off his own boot (maybe not as many as we'd like) at some stage.

If there's one thing this last season showed, it's that we didn't have the strength in our team we thought we did.

All in all, my post was more a comment on that than Trav. It was just a passing comment that trading Trav for a pick that will take time to develop is IRONCLAD proof that we aren't looking at a tilt next year. Before the club did that we had sort of heard rumours of trade talk, and we saw some VERY average footballers delisted, but the Johnstone trade is the most definitive action we've seen so far that sheds light on the intentions of the football department.

Just consolidating my position. Trav trade = Good move for all...

10 months.

Anyone see us having a realistic chance this year or possibly next year?

no, but l'm okay with that, just focus on the young blokes

We have enough games at the G (12). We're alright at TD, another 3 games. Looking at the draw with these things in mind: back playing well at the G, good run with injuries (Fit Rivers, Neitz, Robertson, McLean, Bruce, Moloney, Whelan, and Batram), and our midfield delivering on a bit of promise.

6 Write offs (although we should be atleast competitive I hope): RD.3 Geelong @ SS, RD.6 Brisbane @ Gabba, RD.8 Adelaide @ AAMI, RD.13 Sydney @ MO, RD.16 Fremantle @ Subiaco, RD.21 Port @ AAMI

5 Prospective Tight Games: RD.4 Kangaroos @ Gold Coast, RD.9 Hawthorn @ MCG , RD.11 Collingwood @ MCG, RD.15 WB @ TD, RD.19 Geelong @ MCG (150 Celebration Match)

11 'Should Win' Games: RD.1 Hawthorn @ MCG (Tribunal KO), RD.2 WB @ MCG, RD.5 Carlton @ MCG, RD.7 Fremantle @ MCG, RD.10 St.Kilda @ TD (IMO the Saints will struggle w/o Gehrig, but who knows?), RD.12 Richmond @ TD, RD.14 Brisbane @ MCG (Not gonna lose the TJ match infront of us), RD.17 Kangaroos @ MCG, RD.18 Essendon @ MCG, RD.20 WCE @ MCG (Loss of Judd and Cousins would hurt anyone), RD.22 Richmond @ MCG

You can argue the toss on many of the games but winning 12 from 16 'winnable' games is a tough ask, but with 12 of those at the G we are a great chance. Really need to get a good start to the year (Hawks and Bulldogs), something we have struggled with.

trading trav means we get pick 14, which hopefully gets us cyril rioli...

which in turns gives us the classy crumber to have been needing to fully let aaron davey loose on the midfields of the AFL

we will make the finals in 08, whether we win the flag or not, i dunno, but finals are a definite IMO

To play finals you only have to win just over 50% of your games.

We were blighted last year by the Daniher "run and carry" debacle, that finally was exorcised with his sacking mid-year. How many games did that piece of stupidity cost us?

We lost 3 games (North, Essendon, Bulldogs ) because the team was unable to hold onto a lead with less than 1 minute in the game to go.

We were ultimately decimated by injury, and had Godders, Ward and Brown selected on a regular basis.

So with the first 2 items gone next season, we can be knocking on the door. With luck with the 3rd we can be a lot better.

Trouble is that the disaster of last season has scarred players and supporters. Can the new coach engender some hope? If we ARE to make it we need to see something bright and shining very early on in the piece, to bring the team back together and the supporters through the gate.

Ild be happy to come 16th for 2 or 3 years if it meant we had a real crack at the G.F. Im sick of making the finals just and losing. Its almost impossible for a team to win when finish outside 4. Fact is, melbourne cant afford to loose even 2 years in a row. I like the way the teams heading with younger players but its going to take time. We wont make the finals next year and i hope to hell we dont. In 2009, we could make the finals but are unrealistyic chances. My time frame is 2010 and behond, menaing most of our players who are younger 23's now will be 26 then being the new leaders of the club with new talant at their heels. For years we have also had little depth...i still think were a long way off from having such a thing. Players competing for spots is healthy and obviously helps when injuries occur. We dont have the depth in any of the defence, forward, midfield or ruck

We're not far away from making the 8, however we are a long way from winning a premiership.

a very strong chance 2009.

since the question is simply when will we ake the finals..that only supposes a finish in the top 8. Thats feasible. we were not truly a bottom 8 team this year.

We will make the finals in 08...... as to how far....well thats a whole different question

gee last year geelong sucked a$$ bigtime. We can turn it around. I blame our extensive injuries and a few deadwood players that we had to carry. there is no reason that we can't make the 8 in 2008 as we did in previous years.Once we have a finals berth we will give it everything and walk away with the cup and tent-poles in every ones jim-jammies (except maybe Jaded's)

We are a relistic chance of making the finals next year, but a flag is still 2 or so years away.

Build first and then make a challenge

gee last year geelong sucked a$$ bigtime. We can turn it around. I blame our extensive injuries and a few deadwood players that we had to carry. there is no reason that we can't make the 8 in 2008 as we did in previous years.Once we have a finals berth we will give it everything and walk away with the cup and tent-poles in every ones jim-jammies (except maybe Jaded's)

the only problem with that is geelong's talent is about 100 times better than ours...

look down the spine.

N Ablett - Neitz........ the only win for us here, not enough to make up for all the other losses

Mooney - Miller........ well enough said really

G Ablett - McLean..... i love brock but he is no Ablett

Egan - Frawley?........ Chip will be good but not next year, development for him

Scarlett - Carroll....... we all know how chop struggles as a stand alone FB

Ottens - White........... one is in the prime, the other on the decline

and thats not mentioning Bartell, Johnson, Corey, Milburn, Harley etc.

finals will be a good effort for us next year... i would love to see the sylvia's, moloney's etc. really come on next year and form our core midfield group for the next 7-8 years.

Along with Newton and Frawley improving we will see some exciting footy in 08

Don't forget, when you compare us to Geelong, that many of those players marked as Geelong pluses were just about written off at the end of 2006. Bad attitudes, inconsistency, front-runners, selfish, and it goes on. Many Geelong supporters HATED Ottens as little as six months ago.

We have a lot of players who can take big steps up - starting from Sylvia and Miller, throw in Carroll returning to 2006 form, Robertson freshening up, Davey returning to high-impact frightener rather than being under pressure to do the 'correct' thing.

And don't get me started on the potential of half a dozen kids.

Then of course, injuries. Blah blah blah. (Refers to difference from 1999 to 2000 seasons) You get the picture. It's a whole new season, we've made some big changes, dropped a lot of fringe players and have a lot of young talent which we haven't seen much of yet.

The moral of the story? The competition is very even and any team can challenge for the flag...

What a boring cliche, huh.