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Great to see us score 5.2.32 from centre bounce and get a leg up there but my main intrigue with the us this year is what happens when this is taken away from us in a game.

I look at Wheel O Ratings stats from this game and compare it against the Rd 1 game against GWS and I'm encouraged by this one in particular.

Score origin from Defensive half:

Rd 1 V GWS - 1.1.7

Rd 6 V Freo - 7.1.43

I am looking forward to seeing Wheel O's chain from D50 scores in the coming weeks as this will really allow us to see how the transition game is coming along.

 

Best ave metres gained: Jake Bowey, 473.67m (19th overall)
Top 5 players: Jake Bowey (19th), Christian Petracca (28th), Kysaiah Pickett (33rd), Steven May (37th), Trent Rivers (72nd)
Best game in 2025: Jake Bowey, 649m gained v Frem, R6

  • Author
3 hours ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Best ave metres gained: Jake Bowey, 473.67m (19th overall)
Top 5 players: Jake Bowey (19th), Christian Petracca (28th), Kysaiah Pickett (33rd), Steven May (37th), Trent Rivers (72nd)
Best game in 2025: Jake Bowey, 649m gained v Frem, R6

I assume you mean Bowser is #19 in the AFL for metres gained?

 

4th quarter stats

7 games, lost all quarters. Tied with West Coast.

Dees total 7.21 for an average 1.3 per 4Q

Opp. total 33.14 for an average 5.2 per 4Q

Anyone want to argue with our pathetic showing in the last quarters.

Had Tigers on the rack … 42 points up then just jogged and turned over the footy.

As posted in the postgame thread, largest Tackles Inside 50 differential across three consecutive games (2012-2025):

+46 Geelong, R14-16 2013
+45 St Kilda, R20-22 2017
+43 Melbourne, R5-7 2025

Melbourne v Richmond (Round 7, 2025)

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20250701

Key Team Stats

Stats in bold were won by Melbourne.

Stat

For

Against

Diff

AFL

Disposal Efficiency

Disposal Efficiency

76.1

74.5

+1.6

72.7

Kicking Efficiency

69.0

72.7

-3.7

66.5

Territory/Attack

Time In Forward Half

49.8

50.2

-0.3

Inside 50s

46

43

+3

Shots At Goal

24

20

+4

Scores Per Inside 50

50.0

41.9

+8.1

45.3

Goals Per Inside 50

26.1

20.9

+5.2

24.2

Marks Inside 50

12

9

+3

Transition

Chain To Score %

19.3

16.8

+2.5

21.2

Defensive 50 To Forward 50 %

28.6

12.5

+16.1

23.2

Defensive 50 To Score %

5.7

2.5

+3.2

9.9

Defensive Half To Forward 50 %

32.8

25.7

+7.1

31.5

Defensive Half To Score %

13.4

11.4

+2.0

13.3

Contest

Contested Possessions

132

108

+24

Ground Ball Gets

82

70

+12

Post Clearance Contested Poss

85

59

+26

Post Clearance Ground Ball Gets

53

43

+10

Contested Marks

11

7

+4

Clearance

Total Clearances

38

38

+0

Centre Clearances

9

9

+0

Stoppage Clearances

29

29

+0

First Possessions

39

38

+1

First Possession To Clearance %

82.1

81.6

+0.5

75.5

Defense

Intercepts

70

62

+8

Intercept Marks

15

21

-6

Tackles

72

42

+30

Tackles Inside 50

18

8

+10

Def One On One Loss %

26.1

30.8

-4.7

25.9

Ruck

Hitouts

44

36

+8

Hitouts To Advantage

14

14

+0

Transition stats measure how often chains result in a score or an inside 50. Chains include all kick-in chains, all clearances, and intercepts with at least one disposal in the chain.

  • Chain To Score %: proportion of all chains that resulted in a score.

  • Defensive 50 To Forward 50 %: proportion of all chains starting in the defensive 50 that resulted in an inside 50.

  • Defensive 50 To Score %: proportion of all chains starting in the defensive 50 that resulted in a score.

  • Defensive Half To Forward 50 %: proportion of all chains starting in the defensive half that resulted in an inside 50.

  • Defensive Half To Score %: proportion of all chains starting in the defensive half that resulted in a score.

Player Ratings

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Match

TOG

Max Gawn

7.9

4.6

6.1

1.0

19.6

77%

Christian Petracca

1.1

2.7

11.3

2.4

17.5

82%

Clayton Oliver

0.3

0.9

9.4

6.6

17.2

76%

Trent Rivers

4.5

4.1

0.8

6.0

15.4

84%

Tom Sparrow

1.9

2.1

6.6

4.0

14.5

88%

Kade Chandler

3.9

2.2

5.1

1.9

13.0

87%

Steven May

1.3

3.9

1.8

3.8

10.8

88%

Jake Bowey

0.7

4.1

5.8

−0.7

9.9

84%

Tom McDonald

2.7

3.1

0.7

2.5

9.0

92%

Koltyn Tholstrup

4.4

0.1

3.9

0.0

8.4

63%

Charlie Spargo

0.8

−0.8

7.3

0.6

7.9

78%

Judd McVee

1.7

0.8

3.1

2.2

7.8

83%

Tom Fullarton

1.8

0.5

1.3

2.4

6.1

70%

Kysaiah Pickett

0.2

1.0

2.4

2.2

5.8

86%

Christian Salem

1.8

−0.3

1.2

2.5

5.1

87%

Xavier Lindsay

3.1

−0.1

0.5

1.4

4.9

70%

Harrison Petty

0.7

3.8

0.6

−0.4

4.7

78%

Harvey Langford

−2.6

3.3

0.8

2.3

3.8

78%

Caleb Windsor

1.3

1.2

−0.4

1.5

3.7

82%

Bayley Fritsch

2.1

−0.7

3.9

−1.8

3.5

75%

Harry Sharp

0.0

0.0

0.0

3.5

3.5

24%

Jack Viney

0.5

2.5

1.7

−1.5

3.3

87%

Ed Langdon

4.4

0.6

0.7

−2.7

3.0

81%

Contested Possessions

For

Against

Diff

Melbourne's Defensive 50

Hard Ball Get

4

2

+2

Loose Ball Get

8

3

+5

Contested Mark

2

3

-1

Ruck Hard Ball Get

0

1

-1

Gather From Hitout

4

1

+3

Free For

1

4

-3

Total

19

14

+5

Melbourne's Forward 50

Hard Ball Get

2

4

-2

Loose Ball Get

9

13

-4

Contested Mark

3

1

+2

Ruck Hard Ball Get

1

0

+1

Gather From Hitout

0

3

-3

Contested Knock On

0

1

-1

Free For

3

3

0

Total

18

25

-7

Post clearance

Hard Ball Get

12

10

+2

Loose Ball Get

41

33

+8

Contested Mark

11

7

+4

Contested Knock On

6

1

+5

Free For

15

8

+7

Total

85

59

+26

Pre clearance

Hard Ball Get

10

6

+4

Loose Ball Get

19

21

-2

Ruck Hard Ball Get

2

4

-2

Gather From Hitout

12

12

0

Contested Knock On

0

1

-1

Free For

4

5

-1

Total

47

49

-2

  • Official data on pre- and post-clearance contested possessions are not available. These have been estimated by Wheelo Ratings and should be indicative.

  • Ground ball gets are inclusive of hard ball gets and loose ball gets.

  • 'Free For' does not include free kicks to advantage or free kicks while in possession of the ball as these are not counted as contested possessions.

Expected scores

xScore

Score

xWin %

xMargin

Margin

Swing

Melbourne

88.0

83

85%

+16.9

+20

+3.1

Richmond

71.2

63

15%

Shots

Score

Accuracy

xScore

+/-

xSc. /
Shot

Shot
Rating

Overall

Melbourne

24

12.8 80

50.0%

87.0

−7.0

3.63

−0.29

Richmond

20

9.7 61

45.0%

69.2

−8.2

3.46

−0.41

General Play

Melbourne

9

4.2 26

44.4%

28.4

−2.4

3.15

−0.26

Richmond

6

2.3 15

33.3%

18.4

−3.4

3.07

−0.57

Set Position

Melbourne

15

8.6 54

53.3%

58.7

−4.7

3.91

−0.31

Richmond

14

7.4 46

50.0%

50.7

−4.7

3.62

−0.34

  • xWin %: win probability based on expected scores.

  • Swing: difference between expected margin and actual margin.

  • xScore: total expected score from all shots taken.

  • +/-: total score above or below expected score.

  • xSc. / Shot: average expected score per shot. This represents the average shot difficulty.

  • Shot Rating: average score above or below expected score per shot at goal.

Notes: Expected scores are calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Each shot at goal is assigned an expected score based on the distance from goal, shot angle, and type of shot (e.g. set shot, general play following contested possession, general play following uncontested possession, ground kick, etc) as a proxy for pressure. The model does not take into account factors like the player, whether the ball was kicked with their preferred or non-preferred foot, and pressure on the player when taking the shot. Rushed behinds are excluded from actual and expected scores.

Pressure

Team pressure

Quarter

For

Agn

Diff

1

187

145

+42

2

190

175

+15

3

219

164

+55

4

178

157

+21

Match

193

161

+32

Source: Herald Sun

Most Pressure Points

Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ )

Player

Pressure
Acts

Pressure
Points

Season
Average

Tom Sparrow

29

80

40.1

Jack Viney

24

75

48.9

Clayton Oliver

24

55

53.7

Charlie Spargo

17

42

27.2

Kysaiah Pickett

17

39

35.0

Christian Petracca

16

37

33.7

Max Gawn

13

35

19.6

Jake Bowey

16

34

31.1

Kade Chandler

10

28

36.7

Xavier Lindsay

11

26

28.2

Koltyn Tholstrup

10

23

25.5

Caleb Windsor

11

23

24.2

Ed Langdon

8

17

29.4

Harrison Petty

8

17

21.0

Harvey Langford

6

16

19.3

Judd McVee

7

16

16.0

Trent Rivers

9

14

26.0

Tom Fullarton

5

13

13.5

Christian Salem

5

11

21.1

Harry Sharp

4

11

18.1

Bayley Fritsch

4

9

20.0

Tom McDonald

3

8

16.0

Steven May

3

7

8.2

Source: Herald Sun

Territory (time in zones)

Region

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Match

Season

Half

Forward

43%

50%

59%

46%

50%

50%

Defensive

57%

50%

41%

54%

50%

50%

Region

Forward 50

21%

22%

34%

24%

25%

23%

Attacking Midfield

22%

29%

26%

23%

25%

27%

Defensive Midfield

28%

28%

29%

29%

29%

26%

Defensive 50

29%

21%

12%

25%

22%

24%

Source: Calculated by Wheelo Ratings.

Score Sources

Summary

Score Source

Score

Against

Diff

Kick-in

1.0 6

0.0 0

+6

Centre Bounce

2.0 12

0.1 1

+11

Stoppage (Other)

2.3 15

5.4 34

-19

Turnover

7.8 50

4.4 28

+22

Score Source

For

Against

Match

Season

Match

Season *

Kick-in

6

3.9

0

4.7

Centre Bounce

12

13.6

1

14.7

Stoppage (Other)

15

16.6

34

26.1

Turnover

50

36.7

28

49.1

* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Richmond.

Chain start region

Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective.

Region

For

Against

Match

Season

Match

Season *

Defensive 50

7

11.7

6

17.9

Defensive midfield

17

12.7

32

20.9

Centre bounce

12

13.6

1

14.7

Attacking midfield

15

19.1

10

25.1

Forward 50

32

13.6

14

16.1

* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Richmond.

Points from defensive half

For

Against

Match

Season

Match

Season *

24

24.4

38

38.7

* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Richmond.

Centre Bounce Attendances

CBAs

CBA %

2025 %

2024 %

Jack Viney

21

88%

69.8%

69.1%

Clayton Oliver

19

79%

71.9%

70.7%

Christian Petracca

19

79%

65.6%

55.8%

Max Gawn

18

75%

84.4%

85.0%

Kysaiah Pickett

12

50%

55.7%

33.0%

Tom Fullarton

6

25%

17.2%

Ed Langdon

1

4%

9.9%

0.7%

Harvey Langford

0

0%

23.0%

Tom Sparrow

0

0%

19.8%

37.7%

Trent Rivers

0

0%

8.9%

29.9%

Kade Chandler

0

0%

3.6%

0.0%

Charlie Spargo

0

0%

0.0%

4.2%

Christian Salem

0

0%

0.0%

12.3%

Harrison Petty

0

0%

0.0%

7.5%

Judd McVee

0

0%

0.0%

6.3%

Koltyn Tholstrup

0

0%

0.0%

5.7%

Aidan Johnson

10.9%

Jacob van Rooyen

10.4%

17.8%

Jake Melksham

0.9%

0.0%

Daniel Turner

0.0%

0.3%

Ruck Contests and Hitouts

Ruck Contests

Ruck
Contests

RC %

2025 %

2024 %

Max Gawn

65

72%

80.2%

81.1%

Tom Fullarton

24

27%

20.5%

Clayton Oliver

1

1%

0.2%

0.0%

Harrison Petty

0

0%

0.0%

7.9%

Aidan Johnson

19.7%

Jacob van Rooyen

11.3%

17.6%

Daniel Turner

0.8%

3.1%

Hitouts

Ruck
Contests

Hitouts

To
Adv.

To Adv. %
(2025)

To Adv. %
(2024)

Melbourne

Max Gawn

65

34

10

28.3%

27.9%

Tom Fullarton

24

10

4

43.8%

Harrison Petty

0

0

0

24.4%

Jacob van Rooyen

40.0%

24.7%

Aidan Johnson

30.0%

Daniel Turner

50.4%

Opposition

Toby Nankervis

71

31

11

Kamdyn McIntosh

15

5

3

Tom Lynch

4

0

0


On 22/04/2025 at 10:57, layzie said:

Great to see us score 5.2.32 from centre bounce and get a leg up there but my main intrigue with the us this year is what happens when this is taken away from us in a game.

I look at Wheel O Ratings stats from this game and compare it against the Rd 1 game against GWS and I'm encouraged by this one in particular.

Score origin from Defensive half:

Rd 1 V GWS - 1.1.7

Rd 6 V Freo - 7.1.43

I am looking forward to seeing Wheel O's chain from D50 scores in the coming weeks as this will really allow us to see how the transition game is coming along.

If my memory serves me correct, this is one of the main areas that apparently all teams strive to be rated at or near the top of the tree and a key trait required for Premiership contention.

Lasted only one match unfortunately with the Tiges beating us from this zone last night yes?

Our best Team Pressure Rating for the year. We've even won the last quarter although it wasn't at AFL average (185) which might partially explain why the Tigers won the quarter. Max off with roughly 8 minutes to go obviously another big factor

Edited by Demon Dynasty

Round 7, 2025 MCG - Demons vs Tigers

Well this was either an outlier against a pretty poor oppo or we may have lift off. Maybe a bit of both?

Our best Team Rating for two years. Last bested in Rnd 7, 2023 vs North with a whopping Team Rating of 78.8

Tracc also hitting very good form with a Rating up 20%+ on his excellent 2024 Rating prior to his stint on the sidelines.

The Capt way out in front and easily BOG with an outstanding No.1 rating of 6.55

Welcome back Knuckles McVee, finishing well within the top 10. McVee's 4.01 Rating this week was well ahead of who he replaced. That being Howes' with a Rating of 2.80 from last week. Not a bad performance from Howes even so but not in the league of McVee.

Our top 6 rated players a whopping 37% in front of the top 6 average from 2024

The bottom 6 rating on the other hand, quite disappointing, down 31% on 2024. The worst of those being Kolt -27% on his 2024 Rating and Spargo a worrying-36% vs his 2023 Rating. And although he does not have a comparative Rating, Fullarton holding up the ladder with the worst Rating for us on the night (not counting the Sub).

Lifting that bottom 6 a few rungs would be super handy. Question is who have we got in the McGoos that could make a significant difference at this point? The main one at present is Bonner who's cutting it up but he's also not on our list.

Given we are trying to get back our pressure mojo inside 50, AJ might be one option to consider for Fullarton. While he may not set the world on fire he does attack in the air and pretty competitive / fierce at ground level also. He can chop out in the ruck to a minor degree. Better than nothing. Had a pretty reasonable match at Casey on Thurs morning. Worth re-considering?

Melksham might also be due back. Possibly for Spargo?

image.png

*AFL average % in50s Goal is 23%

image.png

image.png

Demons

image.png

< Subbed out TOG %

> Subbed in TOG %

Tigers

image.png

Combined Player Ratings

image.png

Stats courtesy of footywire.com and wheeloratings.com

Edited by Demon Dynasty

Thanks DD those stats are quite remarkable and bore out what my eyes were telling me Thursday night we were so dominant all game, just not getting the results on the board until the 3rd quarter when our pressure went through the roof. I’m no expert but I’m thinking if you have 15 dominant players then our bottom 8 players are playing their role without getting a kick of the ice cream whereas our overall team stats are way up there. Apart from the last 6 minutes or so we were crazy good, Judd McVee was even better than I thought and so good to see Riv and Spaz getting reward for effort.

 
7 hours ago, DeeZone said:

Thanks DD those stats are quite remarkable and bore out what my eyes were telling me Thursday night we were so dominant all game, just not getting the results on the board until the 3rd quarter when our pressure went through the roof. I’m no expert but I’m thinking if you have 15 dominant players then our bottom 8 players are playing their role without getting a kick of the ice cream whereas our overall team stats are way up there. Apart from the last 6 minutes or so we were crazy good, Judd McVee was even better than I thought and so good to see Riv and Spaz getting reward for effort.

Hey DZ. Agree, it appears on the surface we are seeing a substantial lift, however hard to gauge against the last two opponents.

It might be just what the doctor ordered though. Sometimes you need a bit of a break from the top end oppos for some of your out-of-form players to work their way back to their best. Which then adds more belief and confidence. Confidence being the elusive tonic!

One of our big problems of late is getting all our stars playing at or near their highest level. So we've had Tracc & Viney way down on their usual output till about last week. While Clarry was doing ok to very good during that period. Then all of a sudden Viney & Tracc start to find their form, but Clarry then go missing in a few quarters.

Consistency across the park amongst almost the entire 22 has been so hard to find since about mid way through 2023.

As others have stated, Thurs night was also a diff game than the the Tiges appeared to park the bus almost from the get go by stacking the back half. A different set up to the Dockers. Let's hope the Eagles haven't taken too much note of that next week!

Team & Player Ratings to Rnd 7, 2025 vs H&A Season 2024

Well well well fellow Minions. What do we have here!

Team Rating now tracking at 2022 & 2023 levels AND..... up 3.2% on the 2021 Premiership Season Rating

image.png

*Provided most of this crew stay on the park, we get Lever back mid season and Simon & Co. picks a team roughly within or close to our best 22 from below, i am super confident the Demon worm has turned!

Don't book any holidays in for September, cancel any plans you may have in train...

*WE ARE FINALS BOUND!

image.png

* Played less than two full matches

< Subbed out at least once or more

> Subbed in at least once or more

Stats courtesy of footwire.com & wheeloratings.com

Edited by Demon Dynasty


14 minutes ago, Demon Dynasty said:

we get Lever back mid season

I was at a prematch coterie dinner on Thursday night (not as a diner, but as a pleb selling raffle tickets 😅) and Ricky Lever was the guest speaker. Interestingly, he said despite being listed as 6-7 weeks away from a return, in reality it’s closer to four weeks, possibly even three.

1 hour ago, Ghostwriter said:

I was at a prematch coterie dinner on Thursday night (not as a diner, but as a pleb selling raffle tickets 😅) and Ricky Lever was the guest speaker. Interestingly, he said despite being listed as 6-7 weeks away from a return, in reality it’s closer to four weeks, possibly even three.

It’s great to hear he’s recovering well but I really hope we don’t rush him back. I’m a little bit scared his age is catching up to him after last year, although I think that was a knee injury if I remember right?

12 minutes ago, LePig said:

It’s great to hear he’s recovering well but I really hope we don’t rush him back. I’m a little bit scared his age is catching up to him after last year, although I think that was a knee injury if I remember right?

He went on to say this isn’t a case of *wishful thinking on his part, nor will he be made available prematurely. He said he’s been told he’s progressing better - and faster - than expected.

*He joked that maybe Goody and co. are sick of him being down on the bench behind them, yelling all the while, and he might be right… at times it looked as though he wanted to jump the bench and rip Goody’s headset off, put it on himself and take over coaching. 😂

1 minute ago, Ghostwriter said:

He went on to say this isn’t a case of *wishful thinking on his part, nor will he be made available prematurely. He said he’s been told he’s progressing better - and faster - than expected.

*He joked that maybe Goody and co. are sick of him being down on the bench behind them, yelling all the while, and he might be right… at times it looked as though he wanted to jump the bench and rip Goody’s headset off, put it on himself and take over coaching. 😂

I absolutely love everything about that. 😹 all the more reason for me to hope and believe he’ll be our next captain after Max.

1 minute ago, LePig said:

I absolutely love everything about that. 😹 all the more reason for me to hope and believe he’ll be our next captain after Max.

I’ve thought this all along. For mine he’s the perfect person to take over the captaincy.


11 hours ago, LePig said:

It’s great to hear he’s recovering well but I really hope we don’t rush him back. I’m a little bit scared his age is catching up to him after last year, although I think that was a knee injury if I remember right?

10 hours ago, Ghostwriter said:

He went on to say this isn’t a case of *wishful thinking on his part, nor will he be made available prematurely. He said he’s been told he’s progressing better - and faster - than expected.

Any chance you can get a pair of these to Rick and Maysie next time you see them pls Ghosty?

Rick in particular. He probably won't get to as many intercepts but at least he'll never do another ankle...

Screenshot_20250427_105554_Samsung Internet.jpg

Melbourne v West Coast (Round 8, 2025)

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20250806

Key Team Stats

Stats in bold were won by Melbourne.

Stat

For

Against

Diff

AFL

Disposal Efficiency

Disposal Efficiency

72.3

70.0

+2.2

72.6

Kicking Efficiency

69.5

67.2

+2.3

66.3

Territory/Attack

Time In Forward Half

57.2

42.8

+14.3

Inside 50s

59

43

+16

Shots At Goal

30

22

+8

Scores Per Inside 50

47.5

48.8

-1.4

45.3

Goals Per Inside 50

27.1

25.6

+1.5

24.3

Marks Inside 50

16

11

+5

Transition

Chain To Score %

23.9

19.4

+4.4

21.1

Defensive 50 To Forward 50 %

25.0

17.8

+7.2

22.8

Defensive 50 To Score %

6.2

4.4

+1.8

9.6

Defensive Half To Forward 50 %

38.5

27.0

+11.4

31.2

Defensive Half To Score %

17.3

10.8

+6.5

13.1

Contest

Contested Possessions

150

133

+17

Ground Ball Gets

92

86

+6

Post Clearance Contested Poss

76

90

-14

Post Clearance Ground Ball Gets

48

58

-10

Contested Marks

10

14

-4

Clearance

Total Clearances

49

26

+23

Centre Clearances

18

10

+8

Stoppage Clearances

31

16

+15

First Possessions

54

27

+27

First Possession To Clearance %

77.8

66.7

+11.1

75.2

Defense

Intercepts

58

70

-12

Intercept Marks

13

13

+0

Tackles

56

58

-2

Tackles Inside 50

17

5

+12

Def One On One Loss %

20.0

46.2

-26.2

26.0

Ruck

Hitouts

49

27

+22

Hitouts To Advantage

14

6

+8

Transition stats measure how often chains result in a score or an inside 50. Chains include all kick-in chains, all clearances, and intercepts with at least one disposal in the chain.

  • Chain To Score %: proportion of all chains that resulted in a score.

  • Defensive 50 To Forward 50 %: proportion of all chains starting in the defensive 50 that resulted in an inside 50.

  • Defensive 50 To Score %: proportion of all chains starting in the defensive 50 that resulted in a score.

  • Defensive Half To Forward 50 %: proportion of all chains starting in the defensive half that resulted in an inside 50.

  • Defensive Half To Score %: proportion of all chains starting in the defensive half that resulted in a score.

Player Ratings

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Match

TOG

Max Gawn

4.2

4.3

11.1

4.5

24.1

90%

Daniel Turner

3.2

3.4

8.0

9.3

24.0

85%

Caleb Windsor

3.4

−0.2

10.1

3.2

16.5

85%

Christian Petracca

5.8

2.1

2.4

5.9

16.2

83%

Ed Langdon

3.8

1.0

3.5

3.6

11.9

77%

Jake Melksham

2.7

3.7

4.5

0.9

11.8

75%

Trent Rivers

2.9

0.3

3.2

4.4

10.8

83%

Jack Viney

1.4

0.8

4.8

3.7

10.8

82%

Tom McDonald

5.1

0.6

2.1

2.2

10.0

100%

Xavier Lindsay

5.4

1.3

1.4

1.4

9.4

78%

Harvey Langford

0.7

7.9

0.9

−0.4

9.1

78%

Kade Chandler

0.7

−1.7

8.2

0.8

8.0

91%

Kysaiah Pickett

−1.2

1.9

6.2

0.9

7.7

77%

Christian Salem

1.1

1.8

1.8

1.5

6.2

76%

Charlie Spargo

0.5

−0.9

0.5

6.0

6.1

81%

Judd McVee

−0.8

2.4

3.0

1.2

5.8

76%

Harry Sharp

0.0

0.0

0.0

5.5

5.5

44%

Harrison Petty

3.2

2.0

0.0

0.0

5.1

36%

Steven May

3.2

0.3

0.9

0.6

5.0

97%

Bayley Fritsch

2.9

0.8

1.0

0.1

4.9

71%

Jake Bowey

0.1

0.8

2.1

1.0

4.1

79%

Tom Sparrow

0.6

1.9

0.1

1.0

3.5

80%

Koltyn Tholstrup

−4.1

2.9

−0.5

0.0

−1.7

76%

Contested Possessions

For

Against

Diff

Melbourne's Defensive 50

Hard Ball Get

4

4

0

Loose Ball Get

11

6

+5

Contested Mark

2

2

0

Gather From Hitout

1

0

+1

Contested Knock On

3

0

+3

Free For

1

4

-3

Total

22

16

+6

Melbourne's Forward 50

Hard Ball Get

2

5

-3

Loose Ball Get

14

16

-2

Contested Mark

6

2

+4

Gather From Hitout

1

1

0

Contested Knock On

2

0

+2

Free For

3

8

-5

Total

28

32

-4

Post clearance

Hard Ball Get

6

15

-9

Loose Ball Get

42

43

-1

Contested Mark

10

14

-4

Contested Knock On

3

4

-1

Free For

15

14

+1

Total

76

90

-14

Pre clearance

Hard Ball Get

9

8

+1

Loose Ball Get

35

20

+15

Ruck Hard Ball Get

9

1

+8

Gather From Hitout

12

6

+6

Contested Knock On

4

2

+2

Free For

5

6

-1

Total

74

43

+31

  • Official data on pre- and post-clearance contested possessions are not available. These have been estimated by Wheelo Ratings and should be indicative.

  • Ground ball gets are inclusive of hard ball gets and loose ball gets.

  • 'Free For' does not include free kicks to advantage or free kicks while in possession of the ball as these are not counted as contested possessions.

Expected scores

xScore

Score

xWin %

xMargin

Margin

Swing

Melbourne

106.2

108

98%

+35.6

+32

West Coast

70.5

76

2%

+3.6

Shots

Score

Accuracy

xScore

+/-

xSc. /
Shot

Shot
Rating

Overall

Melbourne

30

16.11 107

53.3%

105.2

+1.8

3.51

+0.06

West Coast

22

11.10 76

50.0%

70.5

+5.5

3.21

+0.25

General Play

Melbourne

13

7.5 47

53.8%

41.9

+5.1

3.22

+0.40

West Coast

10

4.5 29

40.0%

28.5

+0.5

2.85

+0.05

Set Position

Melbourne

17

9.6 60

52.9%

63.3

−3.3

3.72

−0.19

West Coast

12

7.5 47

58.3%

42.1

+4.9

3.50

+0.41

  • xWin %: win probability based on expected scores.

  • Swing: difference between expected margin and actual margin.

  • xScore: total expected score from all shots taken.

  • +/-: total score above or below expected score.

  • xSc. / Shot: average expected score per shot. This represents the average shot difficulty.

  • Shot Rating: average score above or below expected score per shot at goal.

Notes: Expected scores are calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Each shot at goal is assigned an expected score based on the distance from goal, shot angle, and type of shot (e.g. set shot, general play following contested possession, general play following uncontested possession, ground kick, etc) as a proxy for pressure. The model does not take into account factors like the player, whether the ball was kicked with their preferred or non-preferred foot, and pressure on the player when taking the shot. Rushed behinds are excluded from actual and expected scores.

Pressure

Team pressure

Quarter

For

Agn

Diff

1

170

173

-3

2

156

204

-48

3

179

162

+17

4

191

185

+6

Match

173

182

-9

Source: Herald Sun

Most Pressure Points

Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ )

Player

Pressure
Acts

Pressure
Points

Season
Average

Jack Viney

19

50

49.0

Kade Chandler

16

43

37.5

Christian Petracca

16

42

34.8

Koltyn Tholstrup

12

35

28.7

Charlie Spargo

14

33

28.2

Jake Bowey

13

32

31.2

Ed Langdon

14

27

29.1

Kysaiah Pickett

11

26

33.2

Trent Rivers

15

25

25.9

Jake Melksham

11

25

19.4

Tom Sparrow

12

24

38.1

Judd McVee

8

23

19.5

Caleb Windsor

7

17

23.0

Bayley Fritsch

10

17

19.6

Daniel Turner

9

16

16.2

Harry Sharp

8

15

17.8

Xavier Lindsay

7

13

26.0

Christian Salem

6

12

20.0

Steven May

5

12

9.0

Max Gawn

5

8

18.1

Tom McDonald

3

7

14.9

Harrison Petty

2

5

19.0

Harvey Langford

3

5

17.3

Source: Herald Sun

Territory (time in zones)

Region

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Match

Season

Half

Forward

59%

61%

63%

45%

57%

51%

Defensive

41%

39%

37%

55%

43%

49%

Region

Forward 50

37%

30%

34%

22%

31%

24%

Attacking Midfield

23%

31%

29%

22%

26%

27%

Defensive Midfield

22%

19%

27%

29%

24%

26%

Defensive 50

19%

19%

10%

26%

18%

24%

Source: Calculated by Wheelo Ratings.

Score Sources

Summary

Score Source

Score

Against

Diff

Kick-in

1.0 6

1.0 6

+0

Centre Bounce

4.1 25

2.1 13

+12

Stoppage (Other)

3.4 22

2.1 13

+9

Turnover

8.7 55

6.8 44

+11

Score Source

For

Against

Match

Season

Match

Season *

Kick-in

6

4.1

6

4.9

Centre Bounce

25

15.0

13

14.5

Stoppage (Other)

22

17.2

13

24.5

Turnover

55

39.0

44

48.5

* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by West Coast.

Chain start region

Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective.

Region

For

Against

Match

Season

Match

Season *

Defensive 50

7

11.1

7

16.5

Defensive midfield

22

13.9

26

21.5

Centre bounce

25

15.0

13

14.5

Attacking midfield

34

21.0

15

23.9

Forward 50

20

14.4

15

16.0

* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by West Coast.

Points from defensive half

For

Against

Match

Season

Match

Season *

29

25.0

33

38.0

* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by West Coast.

Centre Bounce Attendances

CBAs

CBA %

2025 %

2024 %

Max Gawn

29

94%

85.7%

85.0%

Jack Viney

26

84%

71.7%

69.1%

Kysaiah Pickett

25

81%

61.3%

33.0%

Christian Petracca

19

61%

65.0%

55.8%

Harvey Langford

13

42%

26.0%

Trent Rivers

9

29%

11.7%

29.9%

Ed Langdon

1

3%

9.0%

0.7%

Daniel Turner

1

3%

0.8%

0.3%

Harrison Petty

1

3%

0.4%

7.5%

Tom Sparrow

0

0%

17.0%

37.7%

Kade Chandler

0

0%

3.1%

0.0%

Jake Melksham

0

0%

0.7%

0.0%

Charlie Spargo

0

0%

0.0%

4.2%

Christian Salem

0

0%

0.0%

12.3%

Judd McVee

0

0%

0.0%

6.3%

Koltyn Tholstrup

0

0%

0.0%

5.7%

Clayton Oliver

71.9%

70.7%

Tom Fullarton

17.2%

Aidan Johnson

10.9%

Jacob van Rooyen

10.4%

17.8%

Ruck Contests and Hitouts

Ruck Contests

Ruck
Contests

RC %

2025 %

2024 %

Max Gawn

89

93%

81.8%

81.1%

Harrison Petty

5

5%

0.7%

7.9%

Daniel Turner

2

2%

1.2%

3.1%

Tom Fullarton

20.5%

Aidan Johnson

19.7%

Jacob van Rooyen

11.3%

17.6%

Clayton Oliver

0.2%

0.0%

Hitouts

Ruck
Contests

Hitouts

To
Adv.

To Adv. %
(2025)

To Adv. %
(2024)

Melbourne

Max Gawn

89

47

12

27.9%

27.9%

Harrison Petty

5

2

2

100.0%

24.4%

Daniel Turner

2

0

0

50.4%

Tom Fullarton

43.8%

Jacob van Rooyen

40.0%

24.7%

Aidan Johnson

30.0%

Opposition

Matt Flynn

78

22

6

Archer Reid

7

3

0

Jack Williams

11

2

0

Round 8, 2025 Optus Stadium - Eagles vs Demons

What might have been! A win's a win but given the domination in the first half at stoppage, clearance and inside 50s this should have been a spiflication and a decent boost to percentage.

Thank goodness for Big M, Chandler and in the second half, Melk. Who, playing a higher half forward role around the arc, showed every other team member how to assess and enter the 50 with some sort of connection and AFL level efficiency. No need to panic! And some of the others finally followed, lowering their vision and hitting up a few free targets instead of the ugly festival of shizen forward craft we witnessed in the first half. And on so many other occasions as we all know too well.

And the scoring followed in the third and we were on our way. Our Team Rating nearly 4% off that of 2024 which is not the greatest against one of the worst rated teams in the comp. Plenty of upside ahead. The bottom 6 in particular needs improving!!

Without a doubt Maxy was obviously BOG. For mine Melky our MVP. Chandler just on his heals.

It would appear Tracc is now finding his 2024 form. Can we get Clarry back in and somewhere near his best once again for the icing? We're going to need every little bit of that against the Hawks this week.

The last time Max posted a Player Rating this magnificent was Rnd 11, 2024 vs the Saints with a massive 7.20 Just pipping this one.

A fabulous game from Chandler. Vines starting to find some form. And Langford in the top 5! The kid's looking promising.

Spargo's best game for the year by a country mile. An event or has he turned the corner.

And how about Disco!! Can we PLEASE leave him in the team and let him settle as a 2nd string forward from here! His highest rated game in the red & blue. Eclipsing his 3.02 vs the Tigers in Rnd 7, 2024 and his 2024 average rating by 160%. Let's take a look at how he went about it yesterday...

16 Effectives @ 84.2% (AFL ave approx 74%), 1 contested mark, 3 marks inside 50, 6 inside 50s, 1 clearance, 3 rebounds, 1 inside 50, 5 score involvements, 6 intercepts, 359 meters gaines, a few turnovers with 6 (would have pushed his rating down a bit) and three goals.

The top 6 Meters gained... Duggan 577, Chandler 567, Windsor 499, Maric 474, Baker 459 and Langford with 433.

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image.png

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Player & Team Ratings - Demons

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< Subbed out TOG %

> Subbed in TOG %

Player & Team Ratings - Eagles

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Combined Player Ratings

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Edited by Demon Dynasty

20 hours ago, Demon Dynasty said:

Round 8, 2025 Optus Stadium - Eagles vs Demons

What might have been! A win's a win but given the domination in the first half at stoppage, clearance and inside 50s this should have been a spiflication and a decent boost to percentage.

Thank goodness for Big M, Chandler and in the second half, Melk. Who, playing a higher half forward role around the arc, showed every other team member how to assess and enter the 50 with some sort of connection and AFL level efficiency. No need to panic! And some of the others finally followed, lowering their vision and hitting up a few free targets instead of the ugly festival of shizen forward craft we witnessed in the first half. And on so many other occasions as we all know too well.

And the scoring followed in the third and we were on our way. Our Team Rating nearly 4% off that of 2024 which is not the greatest against one of the worst rated teams in the comp. Plenty of upside ahead. The bottom 6 in particular needs improving!!

Without a doubt Maxy was obviously BOG. For mine Melky our MVP. Chandler just on his heals.

It would appear Tracc is now finding his 2024 form. Can we get Clarry back in and somewhere near his best once again for the icing? We're going to need every little bit of that against the Hawks this week.

The last time Max posted a Player Rating this magnificent was Rnd 11, 2024 vs the Saints with a massive 7.20 Just pipping this one.

A fabulous game from Chandler. Vines starting to find some form. And Langford in the top 5! The kid's looking promising.

Spargo's best game for the year by a country mile. An event or has he turned the corner.

And how about Disco!! Can we PLEASE leave him in the team and let him settle as a 2nd string forward from here! His highest rated game in the red & blue. Eclipsing his 3.02 vs the Tigers in Rnd 7, 2024 and his 2024 average rating by 160%. Let's take a look at how he went about it yesterday...

16 Effectives @ 84.2% (AFL ave approx 74%), 1 contested mark, 3 marks inside 50, 6 inside 50s, 1 clearance, 3 rebounds, 1 inside 50, 5 score involvements, 6 intercepts, 359 meters gaines, a few turnovers with 6 (would have pushed his rating down a bit) and three goals.

The top 6 Meters gained... Duggan 577, Chandler 567, Windsor 499, Maric 474, Baker 459 and Langford with 433.

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Player & Team Ratings - Demons

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< Subbed out TOG %

> Subbed in TOG %

Player & Team Ratings - Eagles

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Combined Player Ratings

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I think ultimately what stopped an absolute decimation on our account was that the Eagles managed to find some gears in Q2. They had a 200+ average quarter pressure rating, which most sides will fail to deal with within quarter. Thankfully it was short lived as they spent all their tickets putting up a response and we were able to respond to their response in Q2.

Having said that, we have some problems with the way we give up goals from F50 turnovers and how easy teams can shotgun and score on us. Goody needs to sort this stuff out pronto. This isnt game-plan design stuff, its purely execution and players failing to setup correctly in defensive positions - even with ball in hand AND when they do, failing to stick tackles or cause turnovers. What confuses me is the fact that we have been putting on massive differentials in forward 50 tackles of late, but still getting scored heavily (and efficiently) when they get through the initial forward press.

Its going to be a real problem with teams like Hawthorn, Pies etc who use shotgun scoring as their 1-wood. Dont know what the fix is to be honest, but i know the shotgun loving opposition clubs like to commit players to the top of our D50 arc and they just spread like wild fire once they get possesion. Is it even a higher forward press with more numbers to congest the F50 and just accepting that they may get through on rare occacion out the back?

23 hours ago, Demon Dynasty said:

Round 8, 2025 Optus Stadium - Eagles vs Demons

What might have been! A win's a win but given the domination in the first half at stoppage, clearance and inside 50s this should have been a spiflication and a decent boost to percentage.

Thank goodness for Big M, Chandler and in the second half, Melk. Who, playing a higher half forward role around the arc, showed every other team member how to assess and enter the 50 with some sort of connection and AFL level efficiency. No need to panic! And some of the others finally followed, lowering their vision and hitting up a few free targets instead of the ugly festival of shizen forward craft we witnessed in the first half. And on so many other occasions as we all know too well.

And the scoring followed in the third and we were on our way. Our Team Rating nearly 4% off that of 2024 which is not the greatest against one of the worst rated teams in the comp. Plenty of upside ahead. The bottom 6 in particular needs improving!!

Without a doubt Maxy was obviously BOG. For mine Melky our MVP. Chandler just on his heals.

It would appear Tracc is now finding his 2024 form. Can we get Clarry back in and somewhere near his best once again for the icing? We're going to need every little bit of that against the Hawks this week.

The last time Max posted a Player Rating this magnificent was Rnd 11, 2024 vs the Saints with a massive 7.20 Just pipping this one.

A fabulous game from Chandler. Vines starting to find some form. And Langford in the top 5! The kid's looking promising.

Spargo's best game for the year by a country mile. An event or has he turned the corner.

And how about Disco!! Can we PLEASE leave him in the team and let him settle as a 2nd string forward from here! His highest rated game in the red & blue. Eclipsing his 3.02 vs the Tigers in Rnd 7, 2024 and his 2024 average rating by 160%. Let's take a look at how he went about it yesterday...

16 Effectives @ 84.2% (AFL ave approx 74%), 1 contested mark, 3 marks inside 50, 6 inside 50s, 1 clearance, 3 rebounds, 1 inside 50, 5 score involvements, 6 intercepts, 359 meters gaines, a few turnovers with 6 (would have pushed his rating down a bit) and three goals.

The top 6 Meters gained... Duggan 577, Chandler 567, Windsor 499, Maric 474, Baker 459 and Langford with 433.

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Player & Team Ratings - Demons

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< Subbed out TOG %

> Subbed in TOG %

Player & Team Ratings - Eagles

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Combined Player Ratings

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Thanks DD we are seeing some positive signs with the playing group our top 6 are performing to a higher level and players 7-12 are also performing adequately so either our bottom 6-8 are performing poorly or playing a team role that lowers their individual score however it is affecting our team score.


4 hours ago, GS_1905 said:

I think ultimately what stopped an absolute decimation on our account was that the Eagles managed to find some gears in Q2. They had a 200+ average quarter pressure rating, which most sides will fail to deal with within quarter. Thankfully it was short lived as they spent all their tickets putting up a response and we were able to respond to their response in Q2.

Having said that, we have some problems with the way we give up goals from F50 turnovers and how easy teams can shotgun and score on us. Goody needs to sort this stuff out pronto. This isnt game-plan design stuff, its purely execution and players failing to setup correctly in defensive positions - even with ball in hand AND when they do, failing to stick tackles or cause turnovers. What confuses me is the fact that we have been putting on massive differentials in forward 50 tackles of late, but still getting scored heavily (and efficiently) when they get through the initial forward press.

Its going to be a real problem with teams like Hawthorn, Pies etc who use shotgun scoring as their 1-wood. Dont know what the fix is to be honest, but i know the shotgun loving opposition clubs like to commit players to the top of our D50 arc and they just spread like wild fire once they get possesion. Is it even a higher forward press with more numbers to congest the F50 and just accepting that they may get through on rare occacion out the back?

To a point yes GS but to have that many entries in the first half and fall badly short on the scoring front.

Pretty sure it was something like 29 inside 50s for a miserly three goals. That's a shizenhouse 10% return and VFL type standards.

The AFL average is 23% (ish). That equates to approx 6.5 goals.

We left the door open, again, which gave them a huge incentive to up that effort as the 2nd quarter wore on.

With the amount of effort required to win the ball at stoppage, force turnovers when you lose it, then transition from HB into 50 (from turnovers in that area), efficiency of scoring is key must have in the game now and truth be told, probably always has been.

This is a significant aspect of the game that helps make the Cats and the Pies so formidable.

You know they're both going to convert at or higher than AFL average in MOST games they play and it's what keeps them in the big games as well as seeing them bury lessor opponents. And often quite early in a match. They don't give the lessor lights a sniff so often, killing off their hope / belief early on by converting more of their inside 50 entries.

Conversely it also gives players in such teams a pretty big incentive to lift their output and get it into the 50 when they see the returns from their efforts paying off more often.

Thank Lucifer Melksham lead the way and turned the efficiency from entries & connection around for us in the 2nd half. Absolute priceless five star performance from the veteran.

Edited by Demon Dynasty

Bring this v hawks and we are in trouble

Need to have high pressure for all four quarters

Team pressure Dees v Eagles

Quarter

For

Agn

Diff

1

170

173

-3

2

156

204

-48

3

179

162

+17

4

191

185

+6

Match

173

182

-9

4 minutes ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Bring this v hawks and we are in trouble

Need to have high pressure for all four quarters

Team pressure Dees v Eagles

Quarter

For

Agn

Diff

1

170

173

-3

2

156

204

-48

3

179

162

+17

4

191

185

+6

Match

173

182

-9

Yeah i think the modern game doesnt really allow you to win against most teams with that type of pressure. Id expect to see Hawks with at least 2 quarters in the 190+ range. We melt like butter with anything over 180.

 

Team & Player Ratings to Rnd 8, 2025 vs H&A Season 2024

Big Max takes over the No.1 spot from an absent Clazz.

Tracc breaks into the top 5 for the first time in 2025 but still a bit of work ahead if he wants to catch Bowey.

Maysie dropping away in his last few matches. Zero contested stats vs the Eagles! An indication that he's struggling with the foot and/or other problems?

Sparrow & Koz dropping away somewhat from their early form in the last few matches.

Turner steps up and is now ranked as our highest rated tall forward in 2025 and by a fair margin.

Vines, Spargo and Windsor climbing back towards their 2023 / 24 form.

Need to get Maysie and Koz up and about again.

Hopefully Clazz back in this week and Lever not too far away either...

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* Played less than two full matches

< Subbed out at least once or more

> Subbed in at least once or more

Stats courtesy of footwire.com & wheeloratings.com

Edited by Demon Dynasty

On 26/04/2025 at 16:17, Ghostwriter said:

He joked that maybe Goody and co. are sick of him being down on the bench behind them, yelling all the while, and he might be right… at times it looked as though he wanted to jump the bench and rip Goody’s headset off, put it on himself and take over coaching.

Of all the players, Lever is the one who has future-senior-coach written all over him.


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