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2025 Ladder Predictor

Rolling Stone
Rolling Stone
in Melbourne Demons

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44 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

Take another look at the table in my post and look at their predictions for 2024 and how they panned out. 

As I mentioned it was surprising how accurate the number of wins were for Hawks, Swans, Pies and Dees, even before a ball was bounced. 

No doubt having fewer injuries will help but maybe injuries pan out across the league to the point where they aren't statistically significant ...  I just hope the dees prediction for this year is horribly wrong.

But how did they work them out? Melbourne had a poor pre-season and maybe that was a big reason the prediction was 5 less wins. But if Petracca hadn't been injured we quite feasibly win a couple more games, making 13 instead of 11 look like a 'meh' tip

They had Hawthorn doubling thier number of wins. Maybe if their percentage was 101 among teams with much worse percentages I'd guess they had  lost many close games making the prediction  look reasonable. But they jumped from 80 on % in 2023 to 118.5 (which was probably 130 ignoring their first 7 or so games)

And premier Collingwood going from 18 to 11.8 wins?! Why??? I can accept the Swans tip. But otherwise I want to see calculations rather than assuming these weren't flukes.

The ABC article also has  the effect of our player retirements  in the 6 teams most weakened going into this season? How??? Brayshaw, Ben Brown and Hunter hardly played a game combined (and weren't effective in the few they did have!)

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    3 hours ago, Lucifers Hero said:

    Take another look at the table in my post and look at their predictions for 2024 and how they panned out. 

    As I mentioned it was surprising how accurate the number of wins were for Hawks, Swans, Pies and Dees, even before a ball was bounced. 

    No doubt having fewer injuries will help but maybe injuries pan out across the league to the point where they aren't statistically significant ...  I just hope the dees prediction for this year is horribly wrong.

    Pythag isn't infallible.

    In 2022 they were out on Collingwood by over 4 wins and Port by over 3.  Collingwood won 16 (against a prediction of 11.9) and Port were 3 less (10).

    In 2023 they doubled down on Collingwood saying, 'We’ll say this: it would be absolutely staggering if Collingwood won more than 16 games next season.'  ... there is essentially zero chance (16 wins) it will be repeated...

    Collingwood went on to win 18 games in the home & away and, of course, the flag.

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    1 hour ago, DubDee said:

    I'll leave this here. Predictions from March 2021

    https://www.afl.com.au/news/560486/crystal-ball-our-predictions-for-the-2021-afl-season-are-in

    Kudos to the AFL staffer who chose this to be the vid immediately following the hilarious predictions, given where we sat in those predictions:

    "Can the Dees push for a premiership in 2021?

    "Melbourne coach Simon Goodwin outlines his plans for the Dees in 2021"

    Check it out in DubDee's link.

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    There's always a few teams that will completely surprise the "experts". It was us and the Dogs in 2021. The aging Cats and the Pies' ridiculous close win run in '22. The Giants resurgence in '23 and the Hawks in '24 are just to name a few.

    I know there has to be positivity from the club, but the messages I'm hearing sound eerily similar to 2021. I'm not saying we'll go all the way this year, but my gut feels is we will win a big final at the G this year.

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    42 minutes ago, At the break of Gawn said:

    There's always a few teams that will completely surprise the "experts". It was us and the Dogs in 2021. The aging Cats and the Pies' ridiculous close win run in '22. The Giants resurgence in '23 and the Hawks in '24 are just to name a few.

    I know there has to be positivity from the club, but the messages I'm hearing sound eerily similar to 2021. I'm not saying we'll go all the way this year, but my gut feels is we will win a big final at the G this year.

    Hasn't happened for 8 years, us fans are DUE!

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