Jump to content

2025 Ladder Predictor

Rolling Stone
in Melbourne Demons

Featured Replies

44 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

Take another look at the table in my post and look at their predictions for 2024 and how they panned out. 

As I mentioned it was surprising how accurate the number of wins were for Hawks, Swans, Pies and Dees, even before a ball was bounced. 

No doubt having fewer injuries will help but maybe injuries pan out across the league to the point where they aren't statistically significant ...  I just hope the dees prediction for this year is horribly wrong.

But how did they work them out? Melbourne had a poor pre-season and maybe that was a big reason the prediction was 5 less wins. But if Petracca hadn't been injured we quite feasibly win a couple more games, making 13 instead of 11 look like a 'meh' tip

They had Hawthorn doubling thier number of wins. Maybe if their percentage was 101 among teams with much worse percentages I'd guess they had  lost many close games making the prediction  look reasonable. But they jumped from 80 on % in 2023 to 118.5 (which was probably 130 ignoring their first 7 or so games)

And premier Collingwood going from 18 to 11.8 wins?! Why??? I can accept the Swans tip. But otherwise I want to see calculations rather than assuming these weren't flukes.

The ABC article also has  the effect of our player retirements  in the 6 teams most weakened going into this season? How??? Brayshaw, Ben Brown and Hunter hardly played a game combined (and weren't effective in the few they did have!)

  • Quote
    •  
    3 hours ago, Lucifers Hero said:

    Take another look at the table in my post and look at their predictions for 2024 and how they panned out. 

    As I mentioned it was surprising how accurate the number of wins were for Hawks, Swans, Pies and Dees, even before a ball was bounced. 

    No doubt having fewer injuries will help but maybe injuries pan out across the league to the point where they aren't statistically significant ...  I just hope the dees prediction for this year is horribly wrong.

    Pythag isn't infallible.

    In 2022 they were out on Collingwood by over 4 wins and Port by over 3.  Collingwood won 16 (against a prediction of 11.9) and Port were 3 less (10).

    In 2023 they doubled down on Collingwood saying, 'We’ll say this: it would be absolutely staggering if Collingwood won more than 16 games next season.'  ... there is essentially zero chance (16 wins) it will be repeated...

    Collingwood went on to win 18 games in the home & away and, of course, the flag.

  • Quote
    • Love 1
    • Haha 1
     

    1 hour ago, DubDee said:

    I'll leave this here. Predictions from March 2021

    https://www.afl.com.au/news/560486/crystal-ball-our-predictions-for-the-2021-afl-season-are-in

    Kudos to the AFL staffer who chose this to be the vid immediately following the hilarious predictions, given where we sat in those predictions:

    "Can the Dees push for a premiership in 2021?

    "Melbourne coach Simon Goodwin outlines his plans for the Dees in 2021"

    Check it out in DubDee's link.

  • Quote
    • Love 1
     

    There's always a few teams that will completely surprise the "experts". It was us and the Dogs in 2021. The aging Cats and the Pies' ridiculous close win run in '22. The Giants resurgence in '23 and the Hawks in '24 are just to name a few.

    I know there has to be positivity from the club, but the messages I'm hearing sound eerily similar to 2021. I'm not saying we'll go all the way this year, but my gut feels is we will win a big final at the G this year.

  • Quote
    • Like 2
    42 minutes ago, At the break of Gawn said:

    There's always a few teams that will completely surprise the "experts". It was us and the Dogs in 2021. The aging Cats and the Pies' ridiculous close win run in '22. The Giants resurgence in '23 and the Hawks in '24 are just to name a few.

    I know there has to be positivity from the club, but the messages I'm hearing sound eerily similar to 2021. I'm not saying we'll go all the way this year, but my gut feels is we will win a big final at the G this year.

    Hasn't happened for 8 years, us fans are DUE!

  • Quote

    • Join the conversation

    You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

    Guest
    Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
    Reply to this topic...
    Go to topic listing

    Featured Content

    • PREVIEW: Carlton

      Good evening, Demon fans and welcome back to the Demonland Podcast ... it’s time to discuss this week’s game against the Blues. Will the Demons celebrate Clayton Oliver’s 200th game with a victory? We have a number of callers waiting on line 
 Leopold Bloom: Carlton and Melbourne are both out of finals contention with six wins and eleven losses, and are undoubtedly the two most underwhelming and disappointing teams of 2025. Both had high expectations at the start of participating and advancing deep into the finals, but instead, they have consistently underperformed and disappointed themselves and their supporters throughout the year. However, I am inclined to give the Demons the benefit of the doubt, as they have made some progress in addressing their issues after a disastrous start. In contrast, the Blues are struggling across the board and do not appear to be making any notable improvements. They are regressing, and a significant loss is looming on Saturday night. Max Gawn in the ruck will be huge and the Demon midfield have a point to prove after lowering their colours in so many close calls.

      • 0 replies
      Demonland

    • REPORT: North Melbourne

      I suppose that I should apologise for the title of this piece, but the temptation to go with it was far too great. The memory of how North Melbourne tore Melbourne apart at the seams earlier in the season and the way in which it set the scene for the club’s demise so early in the piece has been weighing heavily upon all of us. This game was a must-win from the club’s perspective, and the team’s response was overwhelming. The 36 point win over Alastair Clarkson’s Kangaroos at the MCG on Sunday was indeed — roovenge of the highest order!

      • 4 replies
      Demonland

    • CASEY: Werribee

      The Casey Demons remain in contention for a VFL finals berth following a comprehensive 76-point victory over the Werribee Tigers at Whitten Oval last night. The caveat to the performance is that the once mighty Tigers have been raided of many key players and are now a shadow of the premiership-winning team from last season. The team suffered a blow before the game when veteran Tom McDonald was withdrawn for senior duty to cover for Steven May who is ill.  However, after conceding the first goal of the game, Casey was dominant from ten minutes in until the very end and despite some early errors and inaccuracy, they managed to warm to the task of dismantling the Tigers with precision, particularly after half time when the nominally home side provided them with minimal resistance.

      • 0 replies
      Demonland

    • PREGAME: Carlton

      The Demons return to the MCG as the the visiting team on Saturday night to take on the Blues who are under siege after 4 straight losses. Who comes in and who goes out?

        • Clap
        • Love
        • Like
      • 206 replies
      Demonland

    • PODCAST: North Melbourne

      The Demonland Podcast will air LIVE on Monday, 14th July @ 8:00pm. Join Binman & I as we dissect the Dees glorious win over the Kangaroos at the MCG.
      Your questions and comments are a huge part of our podcast so please post anything you want to ask or say below and we'll give you a shout out on the show.
      Listen LIVE: https://demonland.com/

      • 29 replies
      Demonland

    • POSTGAME: North Melbourne

      The Demons are finally back at the MCG and finally back on the winners list as they continually chipped away at a spirited Kangaroos side eventually breaking their backs and opening the floodgates to run out winners by 6 goals.

        • Thanks
        • Like
      • 253 replies
      Demonland
    View All