Jump to content

Featured Replies

44 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

Take another look at the table in my post and look at their predictions for 2024 and how they panned out. 

As I mentioned it was surprising how accurate the number of wins were for Hawks, Swans, Pies and Dees, even before a ball was bounced. 

No doubt having fewer injuries will help but maybe injuries pan out across the league to the point where they aren't statistically significant ...  I just hope the dees prediction for this year is horribly wrong.

But how did they work them out? Melbourne had a poor pre-season and maybe that was a big reason the prediction was 5 less wins. But if Petracca hadn't been injured we quite feasibly win a couple more games, making 13 instead of 11 look like a 'meh' tip

They had Hawthorn doubling thier number of wins. Maybe if their percentage was 101 among teams with much worse percentages I'd guess they had  lost many close games making the prediction  look reasonable. But they jumped from 80 on % in 2023 to 118.5 (which was probably 130 ignoring their first 7 or so games)

And premier Collingwood going from 18 to 11.8 wins?! Why??? I can accept the Swans tip. But otherwise I want to see calculations rather than assuming these weren't flukes.

The ABC article also has  the effect of our player retirements  in the 6 teams most weakened going into this season? How??? Brayshaw, Ben Brown and Hunter hardly played a game combined (and weren't effective in the few they did have!)

 
3 hours ago, Lucifers Hero said:

Take another look at the table in my post and look at their predictions for 2024 and how they panned out. 

As I mentioned it was surprising how accurate the number of wins were for Hawks, Swans, Pies and Dees, even before a ball was bounced. 

No doubt having fewer injuries will help but maybe injuries pan out across the league to the point where they aren't statistically significant ...  I just hope the dees prediction for this year is horribly wrong.

Pythag isn't infallible.

In 2022 they were out on Collingwood by over 4 wins and Port by over 3.  Collingwood won 16 (against a prediction of 11.9) and Port were 3 less (10).

In 2023 they doubled down on Collingwood saying, 'We’ll say this: it would be absolutely staggering if Collingwood won more than 16 games next season.'  ... there is essentially zero chance (16 wins) it will be repeated...

Collingwood went on to win 18 games in the home & away and, of course, the flag.

 

1 hour ago, DubDee said:

Kudos to the AFL staffer who chose this to be the vid immediately following the hilarious predictions, given where we sat in those predictions:

"Can the Dees push for a premiership in 2021?

"Melbourne coach Simon Goodwin outlines his plans for the Dees in 2021"

Check it out in DubDee's link.

 

There's always a few teams that will completely surprise the "experts". It was us and the Dogs in 2021. The aging Cats and the Pies' ridiculous close win run in '22. The Giants resurgence in '23 and the Hawks in '24 are just to name a few.

I know there has to be positivity from the club, but the messages I'm hearing sound eerily similar to 2021. I'm not saying we'll go all the way this year, but my gut feels is we will win a big final at the G this year.

42 minutes ago, At the break of Gawn said:

There's always a few teams that will completely surprise the "experts". It was us and the Dogs in 2021. The aging Cats and the Pies' ridiculous close win run in '22. The Giants resurgence in '23 and the Hawks in '24 are just to name a few.

I know there has to be positivity from the club, but the messages I'm hearing sound eerily similar to 2021. I'm not saying we'll go all the way this year, but my gut feels is we will win a big final at the G this year.

Hasn't happened for 8 years, us fans are DUE!


Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

Featured Content

  • NON-MFC: Round 11

    Round 11, the second week of The Sir Doug Nicholls Round, kicks off on Thursday night with the Cats hosting the Bulldogs at Kardinia Park. Geelong will be looking to to continue their decade long dominance over the Bulldogs, while the Dogs aim to take another big scalp as they surge up the ladder. On Friday night it's he Dreamtime at the 'G clash between Essendon and Richmond. The Bombers will want to avoid another embarrassing performance against a lowly side whilst the Tigers will be keen to avenge a disappointing loss to the Kangaroos. Saturday footy kicks off as the Blues face the Giants in a pivotal clash for both clubs. Carlton need to turn around their up and down season while GWS will be eager to bounce back and reassert themselves as a September threat. At twilight sees the Hawks taking on the Lions at the G. Hawthorn need to cement themselves in the Top 4 but they’ll need to be at their best to challenge a Brisbane side eager to respond after last week’s crushing loss to the Dees on their home turf. The first of the Saturday night double headers opens with North Melbourne up against the high-flying Magpies. The Roos will need a near-perfect performance to trouble a Collingwood side sitting atop the ladder.

      • Thanks
    • 322 replies
    Demonland
  • PREVIEW: Sydney

    The two teams competing at the MCG on Sunday afternoon have each traversed a long and arduous path since their previous encounter on a sweltering March evening in Sydney a season and a half ago. Both experienced periods of success at various times last year. The Demons ran out of steam in midseason while the Swans went on to narrowly miss the ultimate prize in the sport. Now, they find themselves outside of finals contention as the season approaches the halfway mark. The winner this week will remain in contact with the leading pack, while the loser may well find itself on a precipice, staring into the abyss. The current season has presented numerous challenges for most clubs, particularly those positioned in the middle tier. The Essendon experience in suffering a significant 91-point loss to the Bulldogs, just one week after defeating the Swans, may not be typical, but it illustrates the unpredictability of outcomes under the league’s present set up. 

      • Clap
      • Love
      • Thanks
      • Like
    • 16 replies
    Demonland
  • REPORT: Brisbane

    “Max Gawn has been the heart and soul of the Dees for years now, but this recent recovery from a terrible start has been driven by him. He was everywhere again, and with the game in the balance, he took several key marks to keep the ball in the Dees forward half.” - The Monday Knee Jerk Reaction: Round Ten Of course, it wasn’t the efforts of one man that caused this monumental upset, but rather the work of the coach and his assistants and the other 22 players who took the ground, notably the likes of Jake Melksham, Christian Petracca, Clayton Oliver and Kozzie Pickett but Max has been magnificent in taking ownership of his team and its welfare under the fire of a calamitous 0-5 start to the season. On Sunday, he provided the leadership that was needed to face up to the reigning premier and top of the ladder Brisbane Lions on their home turf and to prevail after a slow start, during which the hosts led by as much as 24 points in the second quarter. Titus O’Reily is normally comedic in his descriptions of the football but this time, he was being deadly serious. The Demons have come from a long way back and, although they still sit in the bottom third of the AFL pack, there’s a light at the end of the tunnel as they look to drive home the momentum inspired in the past four or five weeks by Max the Magnificent who was under such great pressure in those dark, early days of the season.

      • Thanks
      • Like
    • 0 replies
    Demonland
  • CASEY: Southport

    The Southport Sharks came to Casey. They saw and they conquered a team with 16 AFL-listed players who, for the most part, wasted their time on the ground and failed to earn their keep. For the first half, the Sharks were kept in the game by the Demons’ poor use of the football, it’s disposal getting worse the closer the team got to its own goal and moreover, it got worse as the game progressed. Make no mistake, Casey was far and away the better team in the first half, it was winning the ruck duels through Tom Campbell’s solid performance but it was the scoreboard that told the story.

      • Thanks
    • 3 replies
    Demonland
  • PREGAME: Sydney

    Just a game and percentage outside the Top 8, the Demons return to Melbourne to face the Sydney Swans at the MCG, with a golden opportunity to build on the momentum from toppling the reigning premiers on their own turf. Who comes in, and who makes way?

      • Thanks
    • 505 replies
    Demonland
  • PODCAST: Brisbane

    The Demonland Podcast will air LIVE on Monday, 12th May @ 8:00pm. Join Binman, George & I as we analyse a famous victory by the Demons over the Lions at the Gabba.
    Your questions and comments are a huge part of our podcast so please post anything you want to ask or say below and we'll give you a shout out on the show.
    Listen LIVE: https://demonland.com/

      • Clap
      • Love
      • Thanks
      • Like
    • 35 replies
    Demonland