THE TURN OF A FRIENDLY CARD

[Demonland 73,140]

by Whispering Jack

Brad Green's game against the Adelaide Crows last Saturday was just sensational. He made the most of his return to the midfield to surpass anything he had previously achieved in the red and blue colours. His contribution to the side's unexpected victory over an Adelaide team set to make an impact on the AFL finals again this season was exceptional. Almost as good as it gets. However, I was equally impressed with his statement after the game when he uttered those beautiful words: "we're still in the race for the eight."

I personally loved this comment although admittedly I also found it hard to suppress a little giggle when I read his words embedded in Adam Cooper's article on melbournefc.com.au.

"We're still in the race for the eight."

Green's optimism and self-belief was enough to bring warmth and joy to my heart because it rekindled memories of bygone days; of a time some two or three decades ago when you reached a certain stage of a season and you knew your team was a long way out of contention but you held onto your dreams and religiously followed time worn adages about the "mathematical possibility" of making the finals.

Most of the time that hope was illusory but you felt that by simply following another football cliché and you took things one week at a time there was an ever so slim chance that your team might somehow slip into the finals if luck fell its way. Like some desperado with a poor poker hand and few chips left in front of him (and therefore a very slight mathematical possibility of winning), you waited for the turn of a friendly card.

The friendly card finally did turn Melbourne's way twenty years ago in 1987 when the Dees stormed home to win the last six home and away games on end. They fell into the final five and once there, went on to taste finals victory after a twenty-three year drought on no less than two occasions. The fairy tale only came to an end when tragedy struck in the form of a last minute infringement by a young Jimmy Stynes that resulted in the after siren Buckenara goal that cost the team victory in the preliminary final. The following year, they played off in a grand final.

These days things are different. You need more than luck and mathematical possibility to achieve success in the highly competitive AFL and Melbourne is a long way further back than the 6-10 Demons of '87. Nobody in the history of the game has ever managed to come from anywhere near 0-9 to make the finals. Long ago and far away, nine games were half of a home and away season. This week's Round 11 clash marks the half way point. We might be midway through our winter of discontent but thanks to Brad Green, a tiny spark has been rekindled.

Of course I will always have a problem with this "mathematically possible" scenario. After all, the team is five games plus percentage out of the top eight after ten rounds. As Green so rightly pointed out, the Demons will have to win at least 11 of the 12 remaining games and even if there are some allegedly easy games in that dozen you need to ask what is an easy game when you've only managed to win once in almost half a season?

The real question is whether Melbourne is capable of turning everything around on its head and performing better than even the most optimistic of the pundits predicted it would when looking at the club's prospects before the start of the season?

The answer could well depend on how the Demons fare on the injury front for the remainder of the season after its well documented problems in the first half. Writing in yesterday's Herald Sun, Mike Sheahan made the point that the Demons are facing their moment of truth.

He rightly asked whether injuries were an excuse, an explanation or a cop-out in football and pointed out that "the Demons are averaging four changes a week, with most of them compulsory," while, at the other end of the scale, top side West Coast and fifth placed Adelaide average the fewest changes with 1.3 a week. Those figures reinforce the long-held view that a settled team is more likely to be successful.

That being the case, it's not only mathematically but physically and mentally possible for Melbourne to double its winning run this week against Collingwood because, for the first time this season, the Demons are likely to go into the game with no forced changes. Adem Yze's inclusion will be a plus for them given Collingwood's past inability to counter Adem Yze in Queens Birthday games. The fact that they are able to carry names like Brown, Miller, Pickett and Whelan at Sandringham is proof that things are getting better. On the other hand, the Magpies go into the game without key defenders Jimmy Clement and Simon Prestigiacomo and with Anthony Rocca and Heath Shaw under injury clouds.

So the signs are positive for Melbourne on this front at least for the first time in 2007 and although it would be a stretch to think that the club could possibly string together enough consecutive victories to even draw within sight of the finals, it's something we can dream about on this long weekend.

Before anyone gets carried away about the "mathematical possibility" theory, I have to add a further word of warning. I'm not a mathematician so I decided to consult the closest thing I know to mathematical genius - Demonland's resident mathematics expert, Sam the Stats Man. After feeding all of the relevant data into his computer, Sam's conclusion was that the real odds of Melbourne making the finals from the position it currently occupies are roughly around 4,096 to 1 which means the Brad Green scenario of a Melbourne appearance in this season's AFL finals will remain little more than a dream for a while.

In the meantime of course, we need to keep our feet firmly on the ground and take it all in the same way it has always been done in football - one week at a time!

THE GAME:

Melbourne v. Collingwood at the MCG - 11 June 2007 at 2.10pm

HEAD TO HEAD:

Overall: Melbourne 78 wins Collingwood 136 wins 4 draws

At the G: Melbourne 53 wins Collingwood 69 wins

Since 2000: Melbourne 4 wins Collingwood 3 wins

The Coaches: Daniher 5 wins Malthouse 4 wins

MEDIA:

TV Channel 10 at 3pm (delayed telecast)

RADIO Triple M 3AW 7774ABC SEN

THE BETTING:

Melbourne to win $2.15 Collingwood to win $1.65

LAST TIME THEY MET: Melbourne 22.9.141 d Collingwood 14.10.94, Round 11, 2006, at MCG.

This was one of Melbourne's finest victories of 2006. The Demons were quick out of the blocks with their ferocious tackling and direct football and by half time they held a five goal lead which was stretched to a resounding 47 point victory over the highly fancied third placed Magpies who boasted a better win-loss record (8-2) than they do in the current season. Cameron Bruce was hot, Aaron Davey was simply too quick and Adem Yze up forward was deadly with four goals.

THE TEAMS:

MELBOURNE

Backs Daniel Ward Nathan Carroll Cameron Bruce

Half backs Paul Wheatley Clint Bizzell Daniel Bell

Centreline Travis Johnstone James McDonald Aaron Davey

Half forwards Brad Green Russell Robertson Simon Godfrey

Forwards Colin Sylvia David Neitz Matthew Bate

Followers Jeff White Brock McLean Nathan Jones

Interchange James Frawley Paul Johnson Ricky Petterd Adem Yze

Emergencies Nathan Brown Simon Buckley Ben Holland

In Adem Yze

Out Nathan Brown

COLLINGWOOD

Backs Tarkyn Lockyer Shane Wakelin Brodie Holland

Half backs Heath Shaw Harry O'Brien Rhyce Shaw

Centreline Scott Pendlebury Paul Medhurst Leon Davis

Half forwards Nick Maxwell Travis Cloke Alan Didak

Forwards Dane Swan Anthony Rocca Ben Johnson

Followers Josh Fraser Shane O'Bree Scott Burns

Interchange Chris Bryan Tyson Goldsack Dale Thomas Alan Toovey

Emergencies Shannon Cox Paul Licuria Danny Stanley

In Chris Bryan Shane Wakelin

Out Simon Prestigiacomo (foot) Guy Richards (omitted)

THE OLD RIVALRY

J. V. McKay wrote last year about the rivalry between Melbourne and Collingwood as follows:-

"A long, long time ago the strongest rivalry in our game was that which existed between Melbourne and Collingwood. For a decade between 1955 and 1964 there wasn't a hotter ticket in town than the one that got you into a game between the Demons and the Magpies. The newspapers would build it up as a gigantic clash between the silver tails and the working classes but it was much more than that. It was THE clash of traditional rivals and the crowds would come to their games in their droves.

"All of those who are old enough to remember will nod their heads and agree, saying 'wasn't that a time?'

"If you're too young or just can't remember, consider this: -

"The two rivals contested five grand finals during that decade including the one in 1956 when Melbourne beat Collingwood in front of a then record crowd of 115,802 to win the premiership flag for a second year in a row, they attracted a home and away record crowd of 99,346 on Queens Birthday, 1958. It's a record that still stands today. Between them, the two sides won 7 out of the 10 premierships on offer. They had some wonderful players too - men like Ron Barassi, Brian Dixon, Laurie Mithen and Frank "Bluey" Adams and Ian Ridley were the Demon heroes while Murray Weideman, Bill Twomey and Ray Gabelich were Magpie stars.

Sure, it was a great time but those days have long gone and it's now time for the teams to rewrite the own histories. At the beginning of the year many good judges put Melbourne down as a top four prospect while Collingwood was considered a likely candidate for an early draft choice. As things have transpired, it's looking the other way around. This year, the Magpies have set the standard and their old rivals are lagging a long way behind. Collingwood has the momentum, the confidence and the winning form and that is probably more important than dissecting individual members of the team or looking at match ups, tactics and strategies.

Nevertheless, a staunch Magpie fan told me today that he felt this was a danger game for his club but that they would win because of their stronger midfield. He mentioned names like Burns, O'Bree, Lockyer and the younger brigade of Thomas, Pendlebury and Swan. Hmmm...

I'm willing to match them with Brock McLean, now in his third game back from injury, Nathan Jones, Cam Bruce, Travis Johnstone, Green, McDonald and a couple of the others. In the big man department, the Pies have struggled with their rucks for years and I can't see any change in that when they take on Jeff White and the improving Paul Johnson.

I like Melbourne's forward set up now that David Neitz, Russell Robertson, Matthew Bate and Colin Sylvia are all together in the same team. A couple of them are ready to fire and the fact that this coincides with a weakening in Collingwood's defensive capacity, could tip the balance in favour of the Demons.

At the other end of the ground, one duel that will be of enormous interest will be Daniel Bell on Alan Didak. Last year, Didak wasted Bell early and set back the young defender's season as he was banished to Sandringham for more than a month and a half in the wake of his poor form that day. Fast forward a year later and Bell is playing with strength, confidence and poise. He's much more aware of what's needed to mind a quality opponent and won't give any latitude to the clever Magpie forward. If Bell can hold his own in this contest, then the Demons will have turned over another friendly card in their week by week quest to find some redemption from what has been a sad and sorry season to this point in time.

Melbourne by a whisker - 1 point.