Stats Files - 2024

Demon Dynasty · March 8

Round 0, 2023 SCG - Swans vs Demons

How do you open a narrative about round zero after that opening performance?

By saying SFA and getting on to the numbers that's how! 🤐

Viney just pipping May for the No.1 mantle. Tracc not far behind followed by Clarry. Not a bad effort from Claz given where he was coming from but still a mile off his best. A fair bit of daylight the rest.

Great opening salvo from the first gamer Howes! Windsor also taking the winger's club honours by knocking off Langdon!

Billings posting a negative rating suggesting a not so good debut unfortunately. Bowey with a low 48% game time due to the shoulder injury.

Bring on Round 1 back at the home base where there would have to be a wholesale improvement to have any chance of posting our first W against the Doggies.

Player	Rating	Rank
Jack Viney*	4.675	1
S May*	4.650	2
C Petracca*	4.250	3
C Oliver*	3.800	4
T Sparrow*	3.525	5
B Howes*	3.425	6
J McVee*	3.425	6
A Tomlinson*	3.175	8
C Salem*	2.900	9
Max Gawn*	2.700	10
A N-Bullen*	2.325	11
C Windsor*	2.300	12
B Fritsch*	2.100	13
Jake Lever*	2.075	14
J Bowey* 48%	1.950	15
T Rivers*	1.950	15
K Chandler*	1.900	17
Ed Langdon*	1.825	18
J V Rooyen*	1.700	19
C Spargo*	1.200	20
B Laurie*< 42%	0.775	21
J Schache*	0.700	22
J Billings*> 38%	-0.050	23
Team Score	57.33
Top 6	24.33
Bottom 6	8.10

* Only played one match, not an average rating

< Subbed out TOG

> Subbed in TOG

Stats courtesy of footwire.com & wheeloratings.com

Edited March 8 by Demon Dynasty

WheeloRatings · March 8

Melbourne v Sydney (Opening Round, 2024)

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20240001

Key Team Stats

Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne.

Stat	For	Against	Diff
Disposal Efficiency	71.1	68.9	+2.2
Kicking Efficiency	63.4	64.5	-1.1
Metres Gained	5534	6279	-745
Inside 50s	51	65	-14
Shots At Goal	21	29	-8
Shots Per Inside 50	41.2	44.6	-3.4
Contested Possessions	145	146	-1
Ground Ball Gets	109	98	+11
Intercepts	78	75	+3
Intercept Marks	14	18	-4
Centre Clearances	12	9	+3
Stoppage Clearances	22	36	-14
Contested Marks	3	8	-5
Marks Inside 50	5	9	-4
Hitouts	38	46	-8
Hitouts To Advantage	9	13	-4
Tackles	65	63	+2
Tackles Inside 50	24	13	+11
Def One On One Loss %	20.0	28.6	-8.6

Expected scores

Team	Shots	Score	Accuracy	xScore	+/-	xSc. / Shot	Shot Rating
Overall
Melbourne	21	9.8.62	42.9%	63.7	−1.7	3.03	−0.08
Sydney	29	12.10.82	41.4%	79.7	+2.3	2.75	+0.08
General Play
Melbourne	15	5.6.36	33.3%	43.2	−7.2	2.88	−0.48
Sydney	16	7.8.50	43.8%	42.3	+7.7	2.64	+0.48
Set Position
Melbourne	6	4.2.26	66.7%	20.5	+5.5	3.42	+0.91
Sydney	13	5.2.32	38.5%	37.4	−5.4	2.88	−0.42

xScore: total expected score from all shots taken.
+/-: total score above or below expected score.
xSc. / Shot: average expected score per shot. This represents the average shot difficulty.
Shot Rating: average score above or below expected score per shot at goal.

Notes: Expected scores are calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Each shot at goal is assigned an expected score based on the distance from goal, shot angle, and type of shot (e.g. set shot, general play following contested possession, general play following uncontested possession, ground kick, etc) as a proxy for pressure. The model does not take into account factors like the player, whether the ball was kicked with their preferred or non-preferred foot, and pressure on the player when taking the shot. Rushed behinds are excluded from actual and expected scores.

Pressure

Team pressure

Quarter	For	Against
1	193	202
2	177	171
3	195	186
4	159	204
Match	182	190

Source: Herald Sun

Most Pressure Points

Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ )

Player	Pressure Acts	Pressure Points	Season Average
Tom Sparrow	31	71	71.0
Jack Viney	30	63	63.0
Kade Chandler	20	47	47.0
Alex Neal-Bullen	20	47	47.0
Clayton Oliver	25	46	46.0
Caleb Windsor	20	45	45.0
Blake Howes	12	34	34.0
Ed Langdon	18	34	34.0
Max Gawn	11	30	30.0
Christian Petracca	15	30	30.0
Christian Salem	14	28	28.0
Bayley Fritsch	11	19	19.0
Steven May	8	18	18.0
Adam Tomlinson	8	18	18.0
Jack Billings	6	17	17.0
Trent Rivers	10	17	17.0
Josh Schache	8	17	17.0
Charlie Spargo	8	17	17.0
Jacob van Rooyen	6	16	16.0
Bailey Laurie	8	15	15.0
Jake Bowey	5	11	11.0
Jake Lever	3	4	4.0
Judd McVee	1	2	2.0

Source: Herald Sun

Time in Forward Half

Quarter	For	Against
1	48%	52%
2	55%	45%
3	39%	61%
4	40%	60%
Match	48%	52%

Source: Match total sourced from the Herald Sun; quarter values are my own calculations.

Score Sources

Summary

Category	Score	Against	Diff
Kick-in	0.0.0	0.0.0	+0
Centre Bounce	1.1.7	0.3.3	+4
Stoppage (Other)	2.4.16	4.4.28	-12
Turnover	6.5.41	8.7.55	-14

Score Source	For		Against
Score Source	Match	Season	Match	Season *
Centre Bounce	7	7.0	3	3.0
Stoppage (Other)	16	16.0	28	28.0
Turnover	41	41.0	55	55.0

* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Sydney.

Chain start region

Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective.

Category	Region	For		Against
Category	Region	Match	Season	Match	Season *
Centre Bounce	Centre	7	7.0	3	3.0
Stoppage (Other)	Centre	0	0.0	1	1.0
Stoppage (Other)	Wing	7	7.0	26	26.0
Stoppage (Other)	F50	9	9.0	1	1.0
Turnover	D50	2	2.0	6	6.0
Turnover	Centre	6	6.0	6	6.0
Turnover	Wing	9	9.0	39	39.0
Turnover	F50	24	24.0	4	4.0

Region	For		Against
Region	Match	Season	Match	Season *
D50	2	2.0	6	6.0
Centre	13	13.0	10	10.0
Wing	16	16.0	65	65.0
F50	33	33.0	5	5.0

* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Sydney.

Points from defensive half

For		Against
Match	Season	Match	Season *
8	8.0	27	27.0

* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Sydney.

Centre Bounce Attendances

	CBAs	CBA %	2024 %	2023 %
Max Gawn	21	88	87.5	64.9
Jack Viney	19	79	79.2	72.1
Clayton Oliver	15	62	62.5	81.4
Christian Petracca	14	58	58.3	61.1
Tom Sparrow	13	54	54.2	44.9
Christian Salem	9	38	37.5	0.0
Josh Schache	2	8	8.3	0.0
Alex Neal-Bullen	1	4	4.2	2.1
Charlie Spargo	1	4	4.2	0.0
Jacob van Rooyen	1	4	4.2	7.6
Trent Rivers	0	0	0.0	3.0

Ruck Contests and Hitouts

Ruck Contests

	Ruck Contests	RC %	2024 %	2023 %
Max Gawn	89	85	84.8	57.5
Josh Schache	14	13	13.3	4.1
Jacob van Rooyen	2	2	1.9	13.1
Alex Neal-Bullen	0	0	0.0	0.0
Christian Petracca	0	0	0.0	0.4
Clayton Oliver	0	0	0.0	0.1
Steven May	0	0	0.0	0.0
Tom Sparrow	0	0	0.0	0.0

Hitouts

	Ruck Contests	Hitouts	To Adv.	To Adv. % (2024)	To Adv. % (2023)
Max Gawn	89	37	8	21.6	30.1
Josh Schache	14	1	1	100.0	0.0
Alex Neal-Bullen	0	0	0		0.0
Christian Petracca	0	0	0		100.0
Jacob van Rooyen	2	0	0		31.1

Opposition hitouts

	Ruck Contests	Hitouts	To Adv.
Brodie Grundy	76	33	13
Hayden McLean	24	10	0
Joel Amartey	4	2	0
Justin McInerney	1	1	0

Demon Dynasty · March 8

Team pressure in the last quarter.... gadzooks!

Demon Dynasty · March 8

Team & Player Ratings to Rnd 0, 2024 vs H&A Season 2023

A sea of red vs season 2023 average ratings bar Viney, May, Sparrow, Mcvee & Tomo.

Obviously the new fellas don't have a history & have a get-out-of-jail-free card this season (vs 2023 ratings).

Even though Salem posted a negative rating vs 2023, it was only a minor one and seems a fair result given his role change.

Take no notice of Bowey's numbers given only 48% game time.

Schache & Laurie... umm well let's just say their game wasn't great and the ratings reflect this. And that's being very generous!

The team rating down a massive 18% on Season 2023's average team rating (top 22 rated players).

Having said that, the 2024 ratings from round 0 are a one off and we need to be patient. At least 5 rounds or so needed before we start to see more meaningful ratings and form indicators/trends taking shape vs 2023 ratings.

Player	2024 Rating	2024 Rank	2023 Rating	% Change vs 2023	2023 Rank	Change in Rank vs 2023
Jack Viney*	4.675	1	3.707	26.11	4	3
Steven May*	4.650	2	3.213	44.72	8	6
C Petracca*	4.250	3	4.707	-9.71	2	-1
C Oliver*	3.800	4	5.002	-24.03	1	-3
T Sparrow*	3.525	5	2.811	25.40	16	11
B Howes*	3.425	6	-	-	-	-
Judd McVee*	3.425	6	2.320	47.63	22	16
A Tomlinson*	3.175	8	2.915	8.92	14	6
C Salem*	2.900	9	2.993	-3.11	12	3
Max Gawn*	2.700	10	3.350	-19.40	7	-3
A N-Bullen*	2.325	11	2.532	-8.18	20	9
C Windsor*	2.300	12	-	-	-	-
B Fritsch*	2.100	13	2.324	-9.64	21	8
Jake Lever*	2.075	14	3.131	-33.73	9	-5
T Rivers*	1.950	15	3.696	-47.24	5	-10
J Bowey*	1.950	15	2.820	-30.85	15	0
K Chandler*	1.900	17	2.265	-16.11	23	6
Ed Langdon*	1.825	18	3.057	-40.30	10	-8
J V Rooyen*	1.700	19	2.170	-21.66	25	6
C Spargo*	1.200	20	1.886	-36.37	29	9
B Laurie* <	0.775	21	2.235	-65.32	24	3
J Schache*	0.700	22	1.525	-54.10	33	11
J Billings*	-0.050	23	-	-	-	-
L Hunter	-	-	2.939	-	13	-
H Petty	-	-	2.718	-	17	-
K Pickett	-	-	2.101	-	26	-
T McDonald	-	-	2.054	-	27	-
Ben Brown	-	-	1.941	-	28	-
D Turner	-	-	1.825	-	31	-
J Melksham	-	-	1.599	-	32	-
T Woewodin	-	-	1.406	-	34	-
Team Rating	57.33		69.86	-17.94
Top 6	24.33		24.43	-0.43
Bottom 6	8.10		15.17	-46.61

* Played less than two full matches (in total)

< Subbed out at least once or more (player rating could be somewhat comprised)

> Subbed in at least once or more (player rating could be somewhat comprised)

Stats courtesy of footwire.com & wheeloratings.com

Edited March 8 by Demon Dynasty

adonski · March 8

Howes!

Might need to check the algorithm if Sparrow was rated in your top 20

Demon Dynasty · March 8

1 hour ago, adonski said:

Howes!

Might need to check the algorithm if Sparrow was rated in your top 20

Very nice first up game from the youngster.

There's always the odd outlier when putting these ratings together Adonski and always room for improvement with the way the ratings are devised. Far from perfect.

However he did have the most tackles of any player on the night (9) and the equal lowest turnover count of any of the mids (alongside Max) so that probably bumped him up the table a little.

Although the low turnover count could also be a reflection of less time spent through the middle vs others and/or less involvement at contest etc. So who knows.

Watching the game i also felt he was pretty ordinary.

A number of others that would also usually post higher ratings had a pretty poor night (statistically) also such as Max, ANB, Rivers, Bowey (inj) & Lever. Then there's the outs such as Kozzy & Hunter.

A better result from some of them and/or a few of the outs returning and you might see Sparrow getting shunted down the rankings somewhat.

Having said that, i don't think his game was worse than say Lever who's sitting at 14 which is a fair chunk away from the 20 you mentioned

Have to agree though, his game didn't seem to be good enough to warrant a top 5 finish so might need to make a small adjustment and give it a trial run.

Edited March 8 by Demon Dynasty

Fanatique Demon · March 8

10 hours ago, WheeloRatings said:

Time in Forward Half

Quarter For Against

1 48% 52%

2 55% 45%

3 39% 61%

4 40% 60%

Match 48% 52%

I’m having trouble understanding how those Quarterly numbers could result in the Match numbers.

WheeloRatings · March 8

9 minutes ago, Fanatique Demon said:

I’m having trouble understanding how those Quarterly numbers could result in the Match numbers.

The quarterly values and match total are from two different sources. The match total is official - I have calculated the quarterly values myself from the data I have access to, but they won't necessarly align. I calculated the match time in forward half as 46% to 54%.

spirit of norm smith · March 8

Tom Sparrow pressure acts were high because he was constantly beaten to the ball by the Swans opponents. He just lacks pace over 5 metres and is beaten to the footy. He tackled well but we need him to win the contest more.

DeeZone · March 9

12 hours ago, Demon Dynasty said:

Team & Player Ratings to Rnd 0, 2024 vs H&A Season 2023

A sea of red vs season 2023 average ratings bar Viney, May, Sparrow, Mcvee & Tomo.

Obviously the new fellas don't have a history & have a get-out-of-jail-free card this season (vs 2023 ratings).

Even though Salem posted a negative rating vs 2023, it was only a minor one and seems a fair result given his role change.

Take no notice of Bowey's numbers given only 48% game time.

Schache & Laurie... umm well let's just say their game wasn't great and the ratings reflect this. And that's being very generous!

The team rating down a massive 18% on Season 2023's average team rating (top 22 rated players).

Having said that, the 2024 ratings from round 0 are a one off and we need to be patient. At least 5 rounds or so needed before we start to see more meaningful ratings and form indicators/trends taking shape vs 2023 ratings.

Player 2024 Rating 2024 Rank 2023 Rating % Change vs 2023 2023 Rank Change in Rank vs 2023

Jack Viney* 4.675 1 3.707 26.11 4 3

Steven May* 4.650 2 3.213 44.72 8 6

C Petracca* 4.250 3 4.707 -9.71 2 -1

C Oliver* 3.800 4 5.002 -24.03 1 -3

T Sparrow* 3.525 5 2.811 25.40 16 11

B Howes* 3.425 6 - - - -

Judd McVee* 3.425 6 2.320 47.63 22 16

A Tomlinson* 3.175 8 2.915 8.92 14 6

C Salem* 2.900 9 2.993 -3.11 12 3

Max Gawn* 2.700 10 3.350 -19.40 7 -3

A N-Bullen* 2.325 11 2.532 -8.18 20 9

C Windsor* 2.300 12 - - - -

B Fritsch* 2.100 13 2.324 -9.64 21 8

Jake Lever* 2.075 14 3.131 -33.73 9 -5

T Rivers* 1.950 15 3.696 -47.24 5 -10

J Bowey* 1.950 15 2.820 -30.85 15 0

K Chandler* 1.900 17 2.265 -16.11 23 6

Ed Langdon* 1.825 18 3.057 -40.30 10 -8

J V Rooyen* 1.700 19 2.170 -21.66 25 6

C Spargo* 1.200 20 1.886 -36.37 29 9

B Laurie* < 0.775 21 2.235 -65.32 24 3

J Schache* 0.700 22 1.525 -54.10 33 11

J Billings* -0.050 23 - - - -

L Hunter - - 2.939 - 13 -

H Petty - - 2.718 - 17 -

K Pickett - - 2.101 - 26 -

T McDonald - - 2.054 - 27 -

Ben Brown - - 1.941 - 28 -

D Turner - - 1.825 - 31 -

J Melksham - - 1.599 - 32 -

T Woewodin - - 1.406 - 34 -

Team Rating 57.33 69.86 -17.94

Top 6 24.33 24.43 -0.43

Bottom 6 8.10 15.17 -46.61

* Played less than two full matches (in total)

< Subbed out at least once or more (player rating could be somewhat comprised)

> Subbed in at least once or more (player rating could be somewhat comprised)

Stats courtesy of footwire.com & wheeloratings.com

Thanks DD that is a huge drop off from our average 2023 numbers although great effort from JV, Clayton with disrupted preseason, Blake Howes, Judd McVee and The Duke stood up OK. I’m thinking it may take a few games and a bit of tinkering to adjust for Yze / McQualter changes in midfield coaching and managing the feedback from box to Goody. Poor start to season.

Demon Dynasty · March 9

4 hours ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Tom Sparrow pressure acts were high because he was constantly beaten to the ball by the Swans opponents. He just lacks pace over 5 metres and is beaten to the footy. He tackled well but we need him to win the contest more.

That would explain the high tackle count. No doubt some great efforts to shut down the ball carrier but as you say, if he was being lead to the ball too often and giving up alot of first use then that would be to the detriment of the team regardless.

As per usual, the eyes tell the tale.

Best to only use stats/models as a rough indicator of who 'might' have performed on the day and/or form trends over a period of 3 to 5 weeks or more if you desire.

Some refuse to look at them at all of course. I prefer to use both eyes & stats, but never stats on their own. Not without major caveats and only if i just cant get the time or wherewithal to watch the game eg; overseas and no time / coverage etc.

Edited March 9 by Demon Dynasty

Demon Dynasty · March 9

3 hours ago, DeeZone said:

Thanks DD that is a huge drop off from our average 2023 numbers although great effort from JV, Clayton with disrupted preseason, Blake Howes, Judd McVee and The Duke stood up OK. I’m thinking it may take a few games and a bit of tinkering to adjust for Yze / McQualter changes in midfield coaching and managing the feedback from box to Goody. Poor start to season.

Yes time needed to rectify this as we are too far off our best for a miracle turnaround in one week imho DZ.

We are potentially two to three matches with an injection of NOS players coming back in and replacing the NQRs before righting a bit of a wonky ship me thinks.

Hopefully proven wrong next week. Kozzy back and maybe even BB but i have no idea where he's at fitness / AFL readiness wise as i write this.

Will check on that soonish through the Casey praccy reports and see what's being said.

Edited March 9 by Demon Dynasty

Demon Dynasty · March 15

Round 0, 2023 SCG - Swans vs Demons

Heeney supposedly had the best game of his career according to some commentators? Certainly a huge player rating and one that we would only see on occasions from the likes of Tracc and/or Viney. Clarry on the other hand used to post these almost every other week or so when he was at the top of his game a few years back and before. And occasionally higher up in the 7s & the rare 8!

So the question needs asking... is the tag now dead? Shouldn't we have tagged him at some point with an ANB or a Sparrow or tried to (IF we didn't?). Too me his stellar performance, that of Blakey and to a lessor degree Grundy's were the difference on the night.

It also begs the question...in the past Blakey has often been their running go to link up off HB. It's pretty much Swans 101 that he will take the kick in out of the goal square, give it off and receive again with the old one - two then run the ball up the guts. We curtailed this strat successfully last season in both games i believe? So where were we with the counter strat this season? Did we forget Blakey was playing or what their out-of-the-goal-square 101 was? No one capable of running with him? I think we used Kozzy in the matches last season to shadow him as he gave off the first disposal and make sure he wasn't able to get the next possession they usually attempt in that sequence. I was fuming on the night about this and still am.

Swans

Player	Rating	Rank
Isaac Heeney	6.850	1
Brodie Grundy	4.325	2
Nick Blakey	4.300	3
Chad Warner	3.675	4
Tom Papley	3.525	5
James Jordon	3.350	6
Matthew Roberts	3.325	7
Dane Rampe	3.250	8
James Rowbottom	3.050	9
Justin McInerney	2.850	10
Harry Cunningham	2.800	11
Oliver Florent	2.525	12
Braeden Campbell	2.350	13
Jake Lloyd	2.025	14
Tom McCartin	1.900	15
Hayden McLean	1.875	16
Lewis Melican	1.825	17
Errol Gulden	1.650	18
Sam Wicks > 30%	1.625	19
Will Hayward	1.475	20
Logan McDonald	1.450	21
Robbie Fox	1.100	22
Joel Amartey < 43%	-0.050	23
Team Score	61.10
Top 6	26.03
Bottom 6	9.13

< Subbed out TOG

> Subbed in TOG

Stats courtesy of footwire.com & wheeloratings.com

DeeZone · March 15

Their top 10 better than our and their bottom six better than ours as well. Poor effort all around.

WheeloRatings · March 17