Everyone Saying We Will Drop

[Roost it far 7,423]

S

2 hours ago, Macca said:

It is going to be tough and Petty is one of the vital cogs (in terms of the team being able to win 3 finals)

I'm not sure we can win 3 finals with T-Mac or Brown as a KPF.  Not impossible if surrounded by class but nonetheless, a big ask given their injury history.  We can always use one as a decoy leading a defender away from the contest

But if we can get Petty back at some stage, we're a chance.  The X-factor players are Melksham and maybe McAdam

We just need to be slightly better than break even in the W/L stakes until we get somewhere close to full strength in the forward line 

And we need Clarrie to play more games than he misses and definitely be available at the business end

The forward line below allows us to be a proper contender

HF   Fritsch      JVR     ANB/Petracca

F      Kozzie     Petty      Melksham

Chandler as the 7th forward rotating

Petracca & ANB to share the role on one HFF

But that forward line can't happen until Melksham returns 

And Melksham had found his niche as a defensive forward type and by the looks of it, is very determined to get back

I'll back him in to get back to his best even though age is also a factor with Jake.  He was a revelation late last season before he did his knee ... and as the 5th or 6th forward, he can be very dangerous.  In his absence, it's probably McAdam

So you're banking on Petty, Melksham and Oliver to be pivotal in us winning the flag and you're bullish about our prospects?

[Macca 16,643]

20 minutes ago, Roost it far said:

So you're banking on Petty, Melksham and Oliver to be pivotal in us winning the flag and you're bullish about our prospects?

Yeah I am, we just need to go better than break even until our forward line woes are fixed.  Petty & Melksham will be back as will Oliver

So if we can be 5 & 3 after 8 rounds (Dogs, Port, Crows, Tigers, Cats & Hawks are no world beaters) we can then get on a roll when at full strength

Melk won't be back until late in the season but he'll be a bonus player when he does return.  In the meantime, McAdam will have his chance to shine

So we don't have to start the season in a dynamic fashion, we just need to eke out wins and hold firm

We have new info as in the last week, T-Mac, McAdam & Fullarton have been added to the injury list so we're going to have to find a way

I'm still bullish that we can get into contention because we have a tremendous defence and a fabulous midfield

But if you want to give up all hope, that's your choice.  Maybe you've been out in the sun too much?

Perhaps you need to get into the shade 😁

Edited February 11 by Macca

[Roost it far 7,423]

12 minutes ago, Macca said:

Yeah I am, we just need to go better than break even until our forward line woes are fixed.  Petty & Melksham will be back as will Oliver

So if we can be 5 & 3 after 8 rounds (Dogs, Port, Crows, Tigers, Cats & Hawks are no world beaters) we can then get on a roll when at full strength

Melk won't be back until late in the season but he'll be a bonus player when he does return.  In the meantime, McAdam will have his chance to shine

So we don't have to start the season in a dynamic fashion, we just need to eke out wins and hold firm

We have new info as in the last week, T-Mac, McAdam & Fullarton have been added to the injury list so we're going to have to find a way

I'm still bullish that we can get into contention because we have a tremendous defence and a fabulous midfield

But if you want to give up all hope, that's your choice.  Maybe you've been out in the sun too much?

Perhaps you need to get into the shade 😁

I’m certainly not giving up. I just don’t think Petty, Melksham and Oliver can be relied upon. 

[Macca 16,643]

33 minutes ago, Roost it far said:

I’m certainly not giving up. I just don’t think Petty, Melksham and Oliver can be relied upon. 

The one who we can probably rely on is Melksham.  When he gets back, he could end up as a plug in and play.  He's a bit of a fitness freak

You might be right on Petty but I'm holding out hope that he recovers.  If Petty doesn't get back at all then all bets are off.  But I don't want to think in those terms.  Who does? 

I don't know anything about Oliver's circumstances but on purely football terms, he could play every game once his fitness gets up to speed ... and that could be sooner rather than later

I would not be at all surprised if Tomlinson is added to the forward line.  Certainly over Schache who I don't think the coach has much faith in

Hore or Howes can play back as the 3rd tallish defender

And as the year progresses, Jefferson might come into the reckoning.  As might Fullarton

 

Edited February 11 by Macca

[JJR 681]

5 hours ago, Macca said:

Yes, we need our starting forwards back as we could drop any given game until at least a few return

We can still win any of the games as well as we might be able to cover their loss (our lack of forwards) 

I'd take a 5 & 3 start to the season right now as our class elsewhere is going to help us win games.  But that could end up being 4 & 4 or even as good as 7 & 1 if augers well.  Right now a long shot (7 & 1) but you never know

And if our forward line is fit & firing from that point, we can go on a run

For the record, here are our first 8 games

(A) Sydney

(H) Bulldogs

(A) Hawthorn (MCG)

(A) Port Adelaide

(A) Crows

(H) Brisbane) 

(A) Richmond (MCG)

(H) Geelong

But you'd imagine our forward line will start getting stronger by the Port game at least ... maybe earlier but maybe later

We just don't know about what the state of forward line is going to look like (game to game)

Compare that to the backline & midfield where things are quite stable

8-0 Easy.

[Macca 16,643]

21 minutes ago, JJR said:

8-0 Easy.

Wow!  Right now, 5 & 3 or maybe 6 & 2* would be a reasonable good result (in my view) but I'll take 8 & 0,  JJ

Our forward line woes might not be shown up as much on the smaller SCG (we may just need the half forward line firing - Fritsch,  JVR,  Clarrie/ Petracca?)

So if we can eke out a win, we've got Kozzie returning for the Bulldogs clash.  We'll have run out the rust in the Sydney game where as the Doggies might hit the wall at 3/4 time

 

*If augers well we can finish the rest of the season 11 & 4 (that would give us 16 or 17 wins overall and a top 4 position)

Edited February 11 by Macca

[Sir Why You Little 36,668]

8 hours ago, WalkingCivilWar said:

Do you seriously believe that Goody made decisions which he knew might not be in our best interest? And this was due to stubbornness? Why would he do that? Serious question. 

My serious Reply got deleted 

No idea why. I went for a swim, must have been a good punch on

[JJR 681]

On 10/02/2024 at 00:32, 58er said:

Gawn coming off would be for a rest ( or he would have had to stay out there at FF. If not very fit) 

If he has had this  broken toe for a month or similar this Was the first time any Sub cover was provided!!  But to not use our 23 players  IMO was much more positive  than being caught with only 22 or 21  eligible players for a quarter or less say. 

Goody himself at the forum for supporters said all we needed is another goal in many games. 
Well Goody you had a chance to try and manufacture one but didn’t have the bravado to try by using your sub. 

So Macca you won’t convince me any way about this.And I have the result to back it up.

You only have Negative and complicated suggestions  of not trying to win with no action attempted to make a change because you are afraid of losing. We always had 23 players and never had any less than 21 for any of the last 40 mins of the game if a risk was made which could have been a  game changer. 

 

Honestly, if we lose, I see it to one of the Adelaide teams, Brisbane and Geelong we play at the G. People are overreacting with the whole FWD line bs. We’ve still got some healthy goal scorers to win us games. September is a longgg way away.

Edited February 11 by JJR

[58er 5,996]

19 hours ago, Roost it far said:

S

So you're banking on Petty, Melksham and Oliver to be pivotal in us winning the flag and you're bullish about our prospects?

We were only pts off last year add those 3 who will only play if  fully fit and in form What a difference to our attack? And don’t  you think any of our recruits or draftees or our young players will improve us?

You are a half glass  empty fan Rooster. Had our bad luck last year 

[Roost it far 7,423]

43 minutes ago, 58er said:

We were only pts off last year add those 3 who will only play if  fully fit and in form What a difference to our attack? And don’t  you think any of our recruits or draftees or our young players will improve us?

You are a half glass  empty fan Rooster. Had our bad luck last year 

I'm really not. What you're conveniently forgetting is there's 4 or 5 other clubs who have had better preseasons than us, have a not dissimilar level of talent and aren't carrying the baggage or the injuries that we are. Plus they're not relying on their 32 year old ruckman to literally carry them to the top 4. If you think I'm being over the top in relation to Gawn's importance take a look at the QF against Collingwood. He played out of his skin and we couldn't win. I've been very bullish the last 4-5 years but we're on a knife's edge atm. Personally I'm ok with that but I also recognise it.

I will say having read the training reports I believe the club is taking a different approach to the year ahead. For the last few years we've been training with a higher level of intensity than this year. I think we've recognised the difficulties in playing our brand for a full season. I've got a hunch, all going well getting players on the park we might just come home like a steam train. I'm expecting a hearts in your mouth kind of ride, or a complete trainwreck.

Edited February 12 by Roost it far

[Tolstoys Nudge 1,502]

On 07/02/2024 at 11:05, DeeSpencer said:

Whilst we played 3/4s of the Pies game on our terms we also never game them any incentive to open the game back up, they were always in front and fought it out that way. They did the same v GWS late in the game. That's the issue with grind it out footy, you have to be extremely good at it to recapture a lead at exactly the right time playing that way.

More run, more skills, more change of direction and creativity with the players you listed above. But that's not always an easy change to flick a switch.

Anyone remember the last time we had a side that made finals a few years in a row and decided they needed to add run and carry?

Yep, we’re perfect — clearly! 😂

 

Your point about the pies is EXTREMELY narrow sighted, they needed LUCK more than they needed skill. 
 

Did their skill make 6 demon shots miss form spots that have a 70% avg success rate in a qtr? Did their grit ensure that they won nearly every 50/50 decision in the final 3qtrs? LUCK is king and never forget it, luck > skill equation only amplifies in small margin finals. It’s hard to swallow but it’s fact. Sure you get runs like us in 21’ but even that had elements of luck, the dogs failures to get that extra goal to put them 23 up, etc..
 

run and carry is a super-simplified term, we’re adding strings to an arsenal, gears to a chain.. to combat a 10-15% swing toward a more offensive overall brand..  

 

 

 

[Tolstoys Nudge 1,502]

On 10/02/2024 at 19:07, biggestred said:

Please excuse the screenshot, was just the easiest way to get our fixture in one place.

 

Our first 6 games are very tough. Syd adelaide and port all away and brisbane. The hawks and dogs will be no pushovers either. I'll be very happy if we are 4-2.

3-3 is no disaster but going 2-4 which is very possible is.

Agreed

[Tolstoys Nudge 1,502]

On 11/02/2024 at 16:17, Roost it far said:

I’m certainly not giving up. I just don’t think Petty, Melksham and Oliver can be relied upon. 

Yeah that Clarry.. he’s SO flaky I mean just look at his 7yr record 🤷🏻‍♂️ 

Edited February 12 by Tolstoys Nudge

[At the break of Gawn 4,419]

Winning the flag this year would be so incredibly sweet with the media pile on and to shut up all the Pies supporters who think they're going b2b. 

Unfortunately I just can't see us making the leap. I can't see where the improvement is really going to come from in our front half and to do it in a reliable and consistent manner. 

I know I'll get flamed for this but I think we'll finish just outside the 8. 

[Wodjathefirst 2,629]

I think we can win the big one this year but I’m a realist. There is always an element of luck (particularly with injuries). Bring it on. Can’t wait.

As an aside, last season I was really torn about who I would barrack for if it ended up a Collingwood v Carlton GF.  (I detest both teams). Problem now solved. After experiencing both sides supporters in two finals…..if it ain’t us in 2022, anyone except Collingwood. Their supporter base on average are pure scum.

[durango 1,989]

Unfortunately injuries play a big part in success in September what would have happened if Brayshaw stayed on the park against Collingwood and Maynard had been knocked out?

We will never know since it happened the other way.