18 hours ago, A F said:

Earlier in the season, we were going very centrally to the central 20m out hotspot, and the last 2-3 weeks we've reverted to the pockets, and it's seen accuracy decrease.

I wonder if it's a deliberate thing. Like, the coaches have said, look, fatigue will hit you earlier in games/you'll carry it in with you to games, and so take the easier options when they present.

And that means not having to defend corridor/central slingshot, so entries become wider and safer towards the boundary. But with this, comes greater inaccuracy.

Yes.  Earlier in the year our forward fifty entries looked better.  Sometimes I think our forward woes aren't so much due to the forwards but the way we move the ball that makes it difficult for the forwards.  

1 hour ago, WheeloRatings said:

Here are the round-by-round hitouts to advantage for 2022.

	Average	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25
Max Gawn	9.1	8	6	3	13	5	11	12	7	7	10	6	11	8			11	3	15	10	6	13	6	14	15
Luke Jackson	3.2	3	5	2	1	0	2		4	1	2	0	2	3	4		4	4	3	3	4	7	12	2	2
Sam Weideman	1.3			0	0	0	0	4				0			4	4			1	0
Tom McDonald	0.6	0	1	0	0	2		0	0	1	1
Ben Brown	0.1	0	0				0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0			0	1	0	0	1

Fabulous ty

32 minutes ago, Orion said:

Yes.  Earlier in the year our forward fifty entries looked better.  Sometimes I think our forward woes aren't so much due to the forwards but the way we move the ball that makes it difficult for the forwards.  

If you think about the forward structure during the H&A season in 2021 and then the last few rounds into the finals, it was chalk and cheese, and we went far more centrally.

29 minutes ago, A F said:

If you think about the forward structure during the H&A season in 2021 and then the last few rounds into the finals, it was chalk and cheese, and we went far more centrally.

Correct.  If only we could re-capture that

33 minutes ago, Orion said:

Correct.  If only we could re-capture that

As I said in my previous post, if you're fatigued, it makes sense that you would tend to go wider and to the easier options. If we time our fitness program again like we did in 2021, so that we're running on top of the ground in the those final rounds and into finals, you'll see more central ball movement and therefore the stronger likelihood of greater accuracy.

It's all interlinked. You can't maintain that sort of ball movement for 23 weeks. You go through ebbs and flows with fitness. As you acknowledge, our ball movement earlier in the season was very different to our last few weeks. It'll return at the back half of the season. Let's hope we have the personnel on the park to ensure the scores are big.

.

Edited June 5, 20232 yr by Engorged Onion

Collingwood are clear on top of the ladder.  The general consensus seems to be that they move the ball fast, have accurate disposal and avoid the contest.  I wanted to have a look at some data to dig a little deeper.

I used @WheeloRatings excellent resource

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats_team.html

and looked for variables where the Pies are top 4 in For, Against or Difference categories - the numbers represent their ranking.  I also looked for where they are bottom 4 and unsurprisingly there are very few but the ones that do exist support the contest avoidance explanation.

I've provided some comments for each variable but others may have better insights and I invite them

I think my basic conclusion is "yep - they move the ball fast, have accurate disposal and avoid the contest".

I'll have a look at the MFC strength areas next and see where we might be able to exploit them.

20 minutes ago, old55 said:

Collingwood are clear on top of the ladder.  The general consensus seems to be that they move the ball fast, have accurate disposal and avoid the contest.  I wanted to have a look at some data to dig a little deeper.

I used @WheeloRatings excellent resource

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats_team.html

and looked for variables where the Pies are top 4 in For, Against or Difference categories - the numbers represent their ranking.  I also looked for where they are bottom 4 and unsurprisingly there are very few but the ones that do exist support the contest avoidance explanation.

I've provided some comments for each variable but others may have better insights and I invite them

I think my basic conclusion is "yep - they move the ball fast, have accurate disposal and avoid the contest".

I'll have a look at the MFC strength areas next and see where we might be able to exploit them.

We’re f.ked!

This one from the Matterofstats website isn't bad. Especially in relation to scoring shot differentials, conversion rates and quarter by quarter performance and rankings. Collingwood and Melbourne rank no lower than 5th other than in 3rd quarter performances (Collingwood actually rank 12th in this area). 

 

 

 

 

Edited June 7, 20232 yr by layzie

18 hours ago, Neil Crompton said:

We’re f.ked!

We're only cactus if we don't mitigate their strengths. We have most of the tools, most of the time, to do that IMHO.

28 minutes ago, layzie said:

This one from the Matterofstats website isn't bad. Especially in relation to scoring shot differentials, conversion rates and quarter by quarter performance and rankings. Collingwood and Melbourne rank no lower than 5th other than in 3rd quarter performances (Collingwood actually rank 12th in this area). 

 

That third quarter from the Pies is such a stand out outlier vs the others.

If i'm an oppo analyst i'd be looking at that carefully to see whether it's by design and if so what they're doing differently.

We tend to put our score on the board in the first and last it seems.  Add a little bit extra in the third and keep the Pies scoring down more than usual in that quarter.  If we have something left in the tank for the last we just might get them.

28 minutes ago, Demon Dynasty said:

That third quarter from the Pies is such a stand out outlier vs the others.

If i'm an oppo analyst i'd be looking at that carefully to see whether it's by design and if so what they're doing differently.

We tend to put our score on the board in the first and last it seems.  Add a little bit extra in the third and keep the Pies scoring down more than usual in that quarter.  If we have something left in the tank for the last we just might get them.

It really stuck out to me because they usually manage to be in striking distance for the 4th. Anyway all eyes on the 3rd quarter this week!

Edited June 7, 20232 yr by layzie

# Ratings to Rnd 12, 2023 vs H&A Season 2022

# Now fully updated to include 'hit outs to advantage' for both H&A seasons for all rucks and anyone who has taken on ruck duties.

Player	2023 Rating	2023 Rank	2022 Rating	% Change vs 2022	2022 Rank	Change in Rank vs 2022
C Oliver	5.285	1	5.320	-0.66	1	0
C Petracca	4.863	2	4.456	9.13	2	0
A Brayshaw	3.821	3	3.839	-0.47	5	2
T Rivers <	3.663	4	2.423	51.18	18	14
J Jordon >	3.641	5	3.164	15.08	9	4
Jack Viney	3.511	6	3.971	-11.58	3	-3
Steven May	3.248	7	3.971	-18.21	3	-4
B Grundy	3.198	8	-	-	-	-
Max Gawn #	3.153	9	3.643	-13.45	8	-1
Ed Langdon	3.104	10	3.109	-0.16	11	1
T Sparrow	3.084	11	2.665	15.72	16	5
Jake Bowey <	3.078	12	2.856	7.77	13	1
L Hunter	3.023	13	-	-	-	-
Jake Lever	3.023	13	2.703	11.84	14	1
J Harmes >	2.938	15	3.082	-4.67	12	-3
A Tomlinson	2.906	16	2.079	39.78	22	6
M Hibberd <	2.865	17	2.613	9.64	17	0
C Salem	2.850	18	3.363	-15.25	7	-11
A N-Bullen	2.754	19	2.688	2.46	15	-4
K Pickett	2.538	20	2.118	19.83	21	1
K Chandler <	2.472	21	-	-	-	-
H Petty <	2.432	22	2.392	1.67	19	-3
J V Rooyen	2.323	23	-	-	-	-
B Fritsch	2.314	24	1.936	19.52	27	3
Judd McVee	2.219	25	-	-	-	-
T McDonald #	2.054	26	1.967	4.42	26	0
Ben Brown <	2.033	27	1.762	15.38	29	2
C Spargo <	1.912	28	1.981	-3.48	24	-4
J Melksham >	1.437	29	1.947	-26.19	25	-4
J Schache *	1.375	30	-	-	-	-
B Laurie < > *	1.300	31	-	-	-	-
Joel Smith *	1.150	32	2.239	-48.64	20	-12
D Turner < *	1.075	33	-	-	-	-
Team Rating #	65.90		68.89	-4.34

* Played less than two full matches (in total)

< Subbed Out at least once or more

> Subbed In at least once or more

Stats courtesy of footwire.com & wheeloratings.com

Edited June 7, 20232 yr by Demon Dynasty

On 5/25/2023 at 11:48 PM, A F said:

I was just looking through https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats_team.html

GROUND BALL GETS

I'm very surprised to find us 4th for ground ball gets (97.3). That's much better than I gave us credit for. Although our game doesn't flow unless we win ground ball, I didn't realise we'd be well above the AFL average (93.0).

This stat will be a really interesting watch over the next 3 matches minus Clarry, as he is our leading GBG player and 3rd in the competition for GBGs. Luckily, Trac is equal 4th and ahead of Cripps and Serong as the only real threats in the next two weeks in this area. Freo are 18th for GBGs and Carlton are 14th. We're 4th for GBGs and Collingwood are 9th.

Collingwood however have 5 players in the top 40 GBG players in the league. Most of them are nowhere near the quality of Trac and Clarry in this area, but Clarry's absence in GBGs will definitely be felt against Collingwood.

COLLINGWOOD

Here are some other interesting stats given everyone seems to think they're the yard stick. 

* they are 1st for kick in play on percentage - 97.2%

* they're 18th for defensive 1v1s (we're 2nd)

Otherwise, we're either pretty much even or we lead them in more categories.

Essentially, if we come to play against them, our game is in better shape than theirs statistically. Given their draw has included Hawthorn, GWS, Richmond and less travel, they're really not very far ahead of us. They just happen to have won two extra games, having limped over the line twice.

At this point, Brisbane looked a completely different side when they play in Brisbane vs away. And Port similar. You could argue similar for us, except the GF is played on our home ground...

Daicos has to get those extra stats some how

48 minutes ago, BangBnagBang said:

Daicos has to get those extra stats some how

Well, it's interesting, on their defensive 1v1s mentioned in my previous post, according to the AFL ap, Daicos of the Nick variety,  hasn't had a 1v1 this year or hasn't won one. He's 0.0%. He doesn't intercept, he doesn't even rebound heavily. He's a good old fashioned loosey goosey receiver. He knows the right spots to get into and is an elite kick, and he has a great tank. 

Will be fascinating if we put extra time into him. I'd imagine we'll have a plan for him in each area of the ground, but I can't imagine we'll do much more than that. We'll back our system.

9 minutes ago, A F said:

Well, it's interesting, on their defensive 1v1s mentioned in my previous post, according to the AFL ap, Daicos of the Nick variety,  hasn't had a 1v1 this year or hasn't won one. He's 0.0%. He doesn't intercept, he doesn't even rebound heavily. He's a good old fashioned loosey goosey receiver. He knows the right spots to get into and is an elite kick, and he has a great tank. 

Will be fascinating if we put extra time into him. I'd imagine we'll have a plan for him in each area of the ground, but I can't imagine we'll do much more than that. We'll back our system.

Yeah I'd say it will be broken up into each area, or someone minding him in general play and handing over at stoppages etc. 

It would have been interesting to see how they were going to use Harmes, if they were going to use him at all.

2 hours ago, A F said:

Well, it's interesting, on their defensive 1v1s mentioned in my previous post, according to the AFL ap, Daicos of the Nick variety,  hasn't had a 1v1 this year or hasn't won one. He's 0.0%. He doesn't intercept, he doesn't even rebound heavily. He's a good old fashioned loosey goosey receiver. He knows the right spots to get into and is an elite kick, and he has a great tank. 

Will be fascinating if we put extra time into him. I'd imagine we'll have a plan for him in each area of the ground, but I can't imagine we'll do much more than that. We'll back our system.

1 hour ago, layzie said:

Yeah I'd say it will be broken up into each area, or someone minding him in general play and handing over at stoppages etc. 

It would have been interesting to see how they were going to use Harmes, if they were going to use him at all.

My understanding is that Nick takes approx 40% of their kick ins but not as a defender.

By taking the kick in he's playing out of position from his usual role as either a mid or HF (and no doubt blending both at times), then heading downfield to to become the extra receiver at contests & stoppages per one of those roles.  The role also changing 

So for roughly 40% of the time (with kick ins) someone needs to mind him as he runs out of the square and then either all the way to contests / stoppages or handovers taking place as he makes his way down.

Im no expert in such things but i would think the very fact he's kicking in when playing as a mid, HF (& blending both) would make it somewhat trickier for teams to cover him on this side.

Might play a significant part in the 'why' he racks up so many receives and takes off so often with a fair amount of space to work in racking up big numbers and causing chain havoc for oppos.

Bottom line, at least when he's specifically taking kick ins, i don't believe we can just back our system in here.  We'll need to address this separately if we're to counter him here imho.

Edited June 7, 20232 yr by Demon Dynasty

1 hour ago, A F said:

Well, it's interesting, on their defensive 1v1s mentioned in my previous post, according to the AFL ap, Daicos of the Nick variety,  hasn't had a 1v1 this year or hasn't won one. He's 0.0%. He doesn't intercept, he doesn't even rebound heavily. He's a good old fashioned loosey goosey receiver. He knows the right spots to get into and is an elite kick, and he has a great tank. 

Will be fascinating if we put extra time into him. I'd imagine we'll have a plan for him in each area of the ground, but I can't imagine we'll do much more than that. We'll back our system.

Hard to win 1 v 1 when you dont pick anyone up

3 hours ago, Demon Dynasty said:

My understanding is that Nick takes approx 40% of their kick ins but not as a defender.

By taking the kick in he's playing out of position from his usual role as either a mid or HF (and no doubt blending both at times), then heading downfield to to become the extra receiver at contests & stoppages per one of those roles.  The role also changing 

So for roughly 40% of the time (with kick ins) someone needs to mind him as he runs out of the square and then either all the way to contests / stoppages or handovers taking place as he makes his way down.

Im no expert in such things but i would think the very fact he's kicking in when playing as a mid, HF (& blending both) would make it somewhat trickier for teams to cover him on this side.

Might play a significant part in the 'why' he racks up so many receives and takes off so often with a fair amount of space to work in racking up big numbers and causing chain havoc for oppos.

Bottom line, at least when he's specifically taking kick ins, i don't believe we can just back our system in here.  We'll need to address this separately if we're to counter him here imho.

I don't mind him taking kick ins. And I suspect neither will we. It's the outside work that we'll try to stifle. 

53 minutes ago, A F said:

I don't mind him taking kick ins. And I suspect neither will we. It's the outside work that we'll try to stifle. 

It's not the actual kick ins as such AF.  Although no doubt the Pies are happy for him to take a fair chunk given his skills... they're obviously looking to free him up as he skoots down the field from FB.... preferably hoping for some confusion & slack checking on the way through.

Plus Nick's fitness with back to back sprints also playing a part probably.

The plus one through the middle stoppages & contests usually comes from a HF pushing up to the middle ....a bit easier to cover off (if oppo coach decides to) than a mid or HF kicking in then offering that extra from HB.

Edited June 7, 20232 yr by Demon Dynasty

12 minutes ago, Demon Dynasty said:

It's not the actual kick ins AF...

It's how he transistions and makes options on the outside as the extra and how you cover him as he sprints down the field to get to the first & subsequent contests out of their back half.

The plus one at these usually comes from a HF pushing up to the middle ....a bit easier to cover off (if oppo coach decides to) than a mid or HF kicking in then offering that extra from HB.

Exactly. So it's not about covering him on kick ins. You back your system in to beat theirs and have players responsible in each phase of the contest and area of the ground.

And you set yourselves up to score big on turn over. Tick. Which means they'll be -1 in the back half. If they choose to send another half forward or winger up to the contest to be a +2 at the contest, that makes them -1 at either end of the ground.

I'd suggest that what many of us have said, RE Smith playing a defensive role on Moore will also come to fruition. This means the rest of our forwards have a +1 advantage and hopefully Smith can take out their best interceptor.

I'm really hoping we give Clarry another week off and we test ourselves against them without the best contested player in the league.

Edited June 7, 20232 yr by A F

37 minutes ago, A F said:

Exactly. So it's not about covering him on kick ins. You back your system in to beat theirs and have players responsible in each phase of the contest and area of the ground.

100%.  Its not the actual kick in that's the worry.

That's the thing though.  How many other teams have backed their normal system in AF?

For those that have, it hasn't worked out so well till now.  Aside from the Lions.  Assuming they backed themselves and made no significant changes which im not sure on.

17 minutes ago, Demon Dynasty said:

100%.  Its not the actual kick in that's the worry.

That's the thing though.  How many other teams have backed their normal system in AF?

For those that have, it hasn't worked out so well till now.  Aside from the Lions.  Assuming they backed themselves and made no significant changes which im not sure on.

If Daicos can't get the same amount of ball because we beat them in the contest and pressure the outside ball, he becomes less of a problem.

I think we've got the best system, it just has more evolution to come.

2 minutes ago, A F said:

If Daicos can't get the same amount of ball because we beat them in the contest and pressure the outside ball, he becomes less of a problem.

I think we've got the best system, it just has more evolution to come.

Yes i'd be also be quietly confident on this if we see a 100% fit Clarry on Monday.

To think he might miss due to a bloody blister!  Bah!!!

10 minutes ago, Demon Dynasty said:

Yes i'd be also be quietly confident on this if we see a 100% fit Clarry on Monday.

To think he might miss due to a bloody blister!  Bah!!!

I'm confident either way, with or without Clarry. Our mids will be under pressure to step up if Clarry doesn’t play. That'd hold us in good stead.