On 07/06/2023 at 09:52, Demon Dynasty said:

It's not the actual kick ins as such AF.  Although no doubt the Pies are happy for him to take a fair chunk given his skills... they're obviously looking to free him up as he skoots down the field from FB.... preferably hoping for some confusion & slack checking on the way through.

Plus Nick's fitness with back to back sprints also playing a part probably.

The plus one through the middle stoppages & contests usually comes from a HF pushing up to the middle ....a bit easier to cover off (if oppo coach decides to) than a mid or HF kicking in then offering that extra from HB.

I think Kossie could do a bit of damage in that situation coming off the mark and pressuring Nick on the receive.

  On 07/06/2023 at 11:06, A F said:

If Daicos can't get the same amount of ball because we beat them in the contest and pressure the outside ball, he becomes less of a problem.

I think we've got the best system, it just has more evolution to come.

This is how I felt a few weeks ago when Butters was carving us up. Instead of having someone run with him we could have just used more contested ball thus denying him as much.

I also wonder if we look at Daicos's running patterns and try to check and disrupt them like you would block off a leading forward. Get a bump on him and don't let him get into any running rhythm going contest to contest. It may be a case of doing this enough instead of having someone try to wear him like a glove all day. 

  On 07/06/2023 at 09:33, A F said:

I don't mind him taking kick ins. And I suspect neither will we. It's the outside work that we'll try to stifle. 

Correct, Its the second disposal he gets after a hand ball receive that sets the pies attacks up through the middle

  On 07/06/2023 at 11:42, layzie said:

This is how I felt a few weeks ago when Butters was carving us up. Instead of having someone run with him we could have just used more contested ball thus denying him as much.

I also wonder if we look at Daicos's running patterns and try to check and disrupt them like you would block off a leading forward. Get a bump on him and don't let him get into any running rhythm going contest to contest. It may be a case of doing this enough instead of having someone try to wear him like a glove all day. 

like port did with max????

  On 08/06/2023 at 01:28, BangBnagBang said:

Correct, Its the second disposal he gets after a hand ball receive that sets the pies attacks up through the middle

like port did with max????

Well, minus the bludgeoning and brute force.

Edited June 8, 20231 yr by layzie

  On 07/06/2023 at 11:28, old55 said:

I think Kossie could do a bit of damage in that situation coming off the mark and pressuring Nick on the receive.

Great point.

In response to a great observation from DD about why and how they use Daicos as the person kicking out, something that i had not considered or heard anyone in the media talk about.

The Lions use Rich in a not dissimilar way - though he doesn't have the speed over the ground, running power or tank of Daicos and so doesn't really track the ball up the ground to create an outnumber and/or a receiving option in the same way Daicos does. 

But the lions love to have Rich either:

• kick out short to a player who gives it back to him and then he belts it 60 metres down the line to a contest, meaning the ball is now nearly at the wing and their tall forwards push up the ground to compete for it in the air
• receive the short kick from the player kicking out, and belts it 60 metres down the line to a contest

Goody uses Kozzie in both instances to get across super-fast and really harry Rich, tackle or box him in if possible and put huge pressure on the Rich kick. It is a big part of how we look to disrupt their game plan.

He could do exactly the same with Daicos - and has the speed and tank to follow Daicos up the ground.

Or perhaps more likely, hand off to Nibbler, who i was thinking this morning would be the perfect player, given his tank and discipline, not so much to hard tag Daicos but more to track him.

Nibbler runs up and down the ground all game anyway, so following Daicos, who does much the same thing, albeit from a diff stating point, would not be dissimilar to the role he plays. 

Edited June 8, 20231 yr by binman

  On 08/06/2023 at 05:20, binman said:

Great point.

In response to a great observation from DD about why and how they use Daicos as the person kicking out, something that i had not considered or heard anyone in the media talk about.

The Lions use Rich in a not dissimilar way - though he doesn't have the speed over the ground, running power or tank of Daicos and so doesn't really track the ball up the ground to create an outnumber and/or a receiving option in the same way Daicos does. 

But the lions love to have Rich either:

• kick out short to a player who gives it back to him and then he belts it 60 metres down the line to a contest, meaning the ball is now nearly at the wing and their tall forwards push up the ground to compete for it in the air
• receive the short kick from the player kicking out, and belts it 60 metres down the line to a contest

Goody uses Kozzie in both instances to get across super-fast and really harry Rich, tackle or box him in if possible and put huge pressure on the Rich kick. It is a big part of how we look to disrupt their game plan.

He could do exactly the same with Daicos - and has the speed and tank to follow Daicos up the ground.

Or perhaps more likely, hand off to Nibbler, who i was thinking this morning would be the perfect player, given his tank and discipline, not so much to hard tag Daicos but more to track him.

Nibbler runs up and down the ground all game anyway, so following Daicos, who does much the same thing, albeit from a diff stating point, would not be dissimilar to the role he plays. 

The problem is that Daicos runs outside the receiver who can block Kossie from tackling him if he comes from on the mark.  For it to work Kossie would need to be on the outside within 50.  Daicos could go either way though.

  On 08/06/2023 at 05:40, old55 said:

The problem is that Daicos runs outside the receiver who can block Kossie from tackling him if he comes from on the mark.  For it to work Kossie would need to be on the outside within 50.  Daicos could go either way though.

Yeah, but the same scenario happens in the Rich examples. ie the receiver tries to block Koz getting to Rich. 

Daicos plays on, short kicks to say Murphy and runs past for the handball receive, Koz sprints to him as soon as Daicos plays on and follows him and tries to disrupt the handball receive, and if he cant put pressure on the next Daicos kick

Kick straight and there will not be any behind kick ins. Problem solved.

Or Kozzie can run wider than the receiver and track the kicker in.

  On 08/06/2023 at 06:21, binman said:

Yeah, but the same scenario happens in the Rich examples. ie the receiver tries to block Koz getting to Rich. 

Daicos plays on, short kicks to say Murphy and runs past for the handball receive, Koz sprints to him as soon as Daicos plays on and follows him and tries to disrupt the handball receive, and if he cant put pressure on the next Daicos kick

 

It becomes a bit like a basketball 'pick and roll' situation. 

  On 08/06/2023 at 06:21, binman said:

Yeah, but the same scenario happens in the Rich examples. ie the receiver tries to block Koz getting to Rich. 

Daicos plays on, short kicks to say Murphy and runs past for the handball receive, Koz sprints to him as soon as Daicos plays on and follows him and tries to disrupt the handball receive, and if he cant put pressure on the next Daicos kick

There's an opportunity for the receiver to handball to Daicos and shepherd Kossie ...

A likely outcome in this scenario is that the receiver doesn't handball to Daicos which could be a win.

  On 08/06/2023 at 06:49, old55 said:

There's an opportunity for the receiver to handball to Daicos and shepherd Kossie ...

A likely outcome in this scenario is that the receiver doesn't handball to Daicos which could be a win.

Yeah, that's what i mean - that's exactly what the Lions try to engineer ie the receiver blocking Koz so he can't pressure Rich.

But Koz often gets around the shepard and still gets to Rich, one because he is running from a distance at speed so is traveling quick when he gets close to Rich, and two Koz has brilliant closing speed, lateral movement and agility he uses to get around the block/shepard.

And as you say if the receiver chooses not to give it back to Rich (or dacios) because of Koz than that's a win.

Edited June 8, 20231 yr by binman

Just a brief comment on how our perceptions are not always an accurate reflection of how tough the game here.

The image below was posted on the MFC socials.

Anyway it feels like tackles are low when you look at them in isolation without other relevant data points. What resonated with me in this, is that the other data points are players who are exulted by the media.

His weekly efforts are enough... even if they don't always feel like it.

 

  On 08/06/2023 at 07:46, Engorged Onion said:

Just a brief comment on how our perceptions are not always an accurate reflection of how tough the game here.

The image below was posted on the MFC socials.

Anyway it feels like tackles are low when you look at them in isolation without other relevant data points. What resonated with me in this, is that the other data points are players who are exulted by the media.

His weekly efforts are enough... even if they don't always feel like it.

 

And he missed, what, two games?

  On 08/06/2023 at 07:46, Engorged Onion said:

Just a brief comment on how our perceptions are not always an accurate reflection of how tough the game here.

The image below was posted on the MFC socials.

Anyway it feels like tackles are low when you look at them in isolation without other relevant data points. What resonated with me in this, is that the other data points are players who are exulted by the media.

His weekly efforts are enough... even if they don't always feel like it.

 

His best career average this season to date...

2023 > 2.4 (1st)

2022 > 1.4 (1st)

2021 > 1.6 (2nd behind Nibbler with 1.7)

Edited June 8, 20231 yr by Demon Dynasty

  On 08/06/2023 at 05:20, binman said:

He could do exactly the same with Daicos - and has the speed and tank to follow Daicos up the ground.

Or perhaps more likely, hand off to Nibbler, who i was thinking this morning would be the perfect player, given his tank and discipline, not so much to hard tag Daicos but more to track him. 

👍🏻👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼

Edited June 8, 20231 yr by Demon Dynasty

Also Kozzy is presently sitting at No.2 in the AFL for tackles inside 50.

Only second to guess who.... Toby Bedford @ 2.5 per match

  On 08/06/2023 at 13:38, Demon Dynasty said:

Also Kozzy is presently sitting at No.2 in the AFL for tackles inside 50.

Only second to guess who.... Toby Bedford @ 2.5 per match

*On averages i meant, not total, where he is of course no.1

It's the one stat that doesn't flatter.

Tackles inside 50 are worth their weight in gold. 

Speaking of defensive stats, i reckon Isaac Quaynor is the best medium defender in the AFL.

And so is a good reference to get sense on how the juddster is traveling given they play a not dissimilar role. 

There are different stats you could look at, but arguably the most important stat for that role is 'Percentage of defensive one-on-one contests lost'.

Quaynor, considered the best one on one medium defender, only loses 8.3% of his defensive one-on-one contests.

The juddster does not suffer badly by comparison, losing only 9.1% of his defensive one-on-one contests - the best of all our defenders (Salo has yet to have 10 contests this season, so is not counted, and surprisingly nor has Gus)

Here are the Percentage of defensive one-on-one contests lost numbers for some of our other defenders:

• May 21.4 %
• Lever 15.4%
• Bowey 15.4%
• Rivers 13.3%

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats.html

 

Edited June 9, 20231 yr by binman

  On 09/06/2023 at 00:14, layzie said:

It's the one stat that doesn't flatter.

Tackles inside 50 are worth their weight in gold. 

Butler was very good in this area last night. 5 tackles inside 50, which puts him number 1 in the league for the moment, 1 ahead of Koz.

  On 09/06/2023 at 05:23, A F said:

Butler was very good in this area last night. 5 tackles inside 50, which puts him number 1 in the league for the moment, 1 ahead of Koz.

So important for them last night, will be a big loss if he's out. 

  On 09/06/2023 at 06:22, layzie said:

So important for them last night, will be a big loss if he's out. 

Yep, given Higgins is super flakey, inconsistent and poor defensively. That said, he too managed 3 tackles inside 50 last night, so maybe I need to give him more credit.

Edited June 9, 20231 yr by A F

Melbourne v Collingwood

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20231308

Note: first number below is Melbourne, higher value is bold.

Pressure

Not available until tomorrow.

Q1: ? - ?
Q2: ? - ?
Q3: ? - ?
Q4: ? - ?
Tot: ? - ?

Most Pressure Points

(Weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/)

Not available until tomorrow.

Time in forward half

Not available until tomorrow.

Here are my calculations (not official) for time in forward half for each quarter:

Q1: 55% - 45%
Q2: 50% - 50%
Q3: 66% - 34%
Q4: 63% - 37%

Score sources

Centre bounce
2.0.12 - 0.0.0

Ball up
0.4.4 - 1.1.7

Throw in
0.0.0 - 1.0.6

Turnover
6.14.50 - 7.7.49

Kick-in
0.0.0 - 0.0.0

Shots at goal

Set position
7.10.52 - 3.4.22

General play
1.4.10 - 6.2.38

Expected Scores

Not available until tomorrow.

Centre Bounce Attendances

	CBAs	CBA %	2023 %	2022 %
Christian Petracca	17	81	64.5	74.6
Jack Viney	16	76	67.2	74.6
Angus Brayshaw	14	67	13.5	16.0
Tom Sparrow	12	57	47.4	32.2
Max Gawn	11	52	45.4	65.5
Brodie Grundy	10	48	58.6	83.7
James Jordon	2	10	19.5	0.2
Trent Rivers	2	10	4.5	0.0
Kysaiah Pickett	0	0	13.9	1.3
Jacob van Rooyen	0	0	5.8
Alex Neal-Bullen	0	0	3.9	3.5
Clayton Oliver			82.8	86.5
James Harmes			28.7	14.6
Tom McDonald			5.4	0.0
Harrison Petty			1.3	0.0
Josh Schache			0.0	13.8

Ruck Contests

	Ruck Contests	RC %	2023 %	2022 %
Brodie Grundy	42	50	51.5	77.4
Max Gawn	37	44	42.8	57.8
Jacob van Rooyen	5	6	9.0
Christian Petracca	0	0	0.1	0.1
Tom McDonald			8.9	7.0
Josh Schache			6.7	13.4
Ben Brown			3.8	3.6
Harrison Petty			3.1	0.0
Clayton Oliver			0.0	0.0

Hit outs

	Ruck Contests	Hitouts	To Adv.	To Adv. % (2023)	To Adv. % (2022)
Brodie Grundy	42	26	5	33.2	30.2
Max Gawn	37	17	6	31.0	33.6
Jacob van Rooyen	5	3	0	16.0
Tom McDonald				25.0	33.3
Harrison Petty				22.2
Ben Brown				0.0	14.3
Josh Schache					33.3

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats.html

Overs and unders on expected scores anyone.

I'm going 90 - 64.

  On 12/06/2023 at 11:44, binman said:

Overs and unders on expected scores anyone.

I'm going 90 - 64.

MELB 63 from expected 86.9 (+3 rushed)

COLL 62 from expected 59.1 (+0 rushed)

89.9 to 59.1.