If everyone played each other once

[Diamond_Jim]

Assuming you do play each other once would you vary the order of matches each year.

I favour a real draw out of a hat with each team having the right to fix the date for one or perhaps two matches allowing for blockbusters.

Following the draw the AFL would then fix the actual time of the game for that weekend

[titan_uranus]

1 hour ago, Demonstone said:

It's not as unbalanced as it might appear.

Of the five double-up games, both Melbourne and Geelong play Port Adelaide and Bulldogs so that's equal.

Based on ladder positions at the end of the 2021 H & A season, we play sides finishing 4th, 11th and 17th.

Geelong play sides finishing 9th, 10th and 18th.

Our draw is only marginally worse but, as the reigning Premiers, it's meant to be.

Geelong, of course, still get the massive boost of playing at Kardinia Park but that's not a function of the fixture.

 

Yes, it is unbalanced.

What you're (fairly) arguing here is that it's not ridiculous that we ended up here.

The Dogs were last year's runner up and Port were a prelim finalist. It makes perfect sense that Geelong would be given those sides twice.

However, as the season as transpired, Geelong's five return games have been significantly easier than ours. That's unbalanced. It's wholly understandable given the way the fixture is drawn based on the previous season's ladder positions, but it's unbalanced.

[Demonstone]

You can't blame the fixture for the fact that 17th placed Collingwood has zoomed into the top echelons and that 9th placed West Coast has ridden the elevator to the basement.  Nobody could have foreseen those two things happening.

On that basis, the draw/fixture is not unfair.  The way the cookie has crumbled has worked in Geelong's favour.

[titan_uranus]

23 hours ago, Demonstone said:

You can't blame the fixture for the fact that 17th placed Collingwood has zoomed into the top echelons and that 9th placed West Coast has ridden the elevator to the basement.  Nobody could have foreseen those two things happening.

On that basis, the draw/fixture is not unfair.  The way the cookie has crumbled has worked in Geelong's favour.

I'm not sure if this is intended to be a reply to my post above, given you haven't quoted it.

If it is, then again, I'm not arguing the fixture is "unfair". I'm arguing it's unbalanced, and that it may well have contributed to our drop off in key statistical areas post-bye whilst Geelong, Sydney and Richmond have all looked great in the same period.

Another interesting metric, and one which I hope stands us in good stead come finals.

Of the 8 sides in the running for finals, we've played all of them on their home deck except Sydney (and arguably Carlton, if you call their true home ground Marvel). We had Geelong in Geelong, Brisbane in Brisbane, Fremantle in Perth, Collingwood, Richmond and Carlton at the G and the Dogs at Marvel (obviously also had Brisbane, Fremantle and the Dogs at the G too).

Compare that run with Geelong. They played us, Brisbane and Fremantle at GMHBA without a return game. Or compare that with Richmond. They played Geelong, Brisbane and the Dogs at the G, and Fremantle at Marvel, again without return games. Or Fremantle. Their only games this year against Sydney, Brisbane and Collingwood were in Perth, and their only game against Richmond was at Marvel, not the G. 

If we miss top 4 we'll be playing other sides on their home deck. Sydney's the only side we haven't had that experience against yet.

[Demonstone]

54 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

I'm not arguing the fixture is "unfair". I'm arguing it's unbalanced

Fair point you make there.  I've taken the two terms to mean much the same thing.

Unless every team plays the other twice (not feasible) or just the once (more likely if the number of teams expand to 19 or 20) or unless the AFL have a crystal ball, the fixture will continue to be both unfair and unbalanced.

[The Corridor]

On 8/16/2022 at 2:13 PM, Demonstone said:

Based on ladder positions at the end of the 2021 H & A season, we play sides finishing 4th, 11th and 17th.

Geelong play sides finishing 9th, 10th and 18th.

...

You can't blame the fixture for the fact that 17th placed Collingwood has zoomed into the top echelons and that 9th placed West Coast has ridden the elevator to the basement.  Nobody could have foreseen those two things happening.

On that basis, the draw/fixture is not unfair.  The way the cookie has crumbled has worked in Geelong's favour.

Geelong playing a mid table team twice (West Coast, 9th) as compared to us playing a top bracket team twice (Brisbane, 4th) looking at those differences in our schedules noted. But it is worse than this, in that Brisbane was widely expected to stay in the top 4, while West Coast were widely expected to fall (just as one example of expectations from journalists entering the season: https://www.afl.com.au/news/717215/crystal-ball-our-predictions-for-the-2022-afl-season-are-in). 

The issue of certain teams rarely/never traveling to GMHBA is another matter, and serves to reinforce systemic inequality in fixtures. If the justification for this is that big teams should play Geelong at the MCG for financial reasons, then this will inevitably just reinforce the dynamic of the strong/rich getting stronger/richer. It is embarrassing to have a professional sporting fixture that is so inequitable year after year.

[Red and Blue realist]

The draw always is and always will be unfair and unbalanced - nothing can help that unless we all play each other twice. However, for this particular season I've put together the table below.

In short we have the second toughest run - unless the Dogs make it into the top 8, then we have had the hardest. IMO this is the way it should be the grand finalists should have the toughest run the next year. 

I've only  looked at the top 9 teams only, as they are still in it at this stage. Clearly the top 2 have done very well with their draw this year, and all the Melbourne based teams do very well with their home games. 

Team	Games against top 8	Top at 8 @ home	Top 8 away	Games against bottom 9
Cats	7	3	4 (only 1 is interstate!)	13
Swans	7	4	3	13
Demons	10	7	3	10
Lions	8	3	5	13
Magpies	9	7	3	12
Dockers	8	4	4	13
Tigers	8	7	1	13
Blues*	10	8	2	11
Dogs	11	6	5 (2 interstate)	11

[titan_uranus]

2 hours ago, Demonstone said:

Fair point you make there.  I've taken the two terms to mean much the same thing.

Unless every team plays the other twice (not feasible) or just the once (more likely if the number of teams expand to 19 or 20) or unless the AFL have a crystal ball, the fixture will continue to be both unfair and unbalanced.

Agree with that.

I've seen a few of this week's AFL shows talking about the statistical dominance over the last two months of Geelong, Richmond and Sydney. I can't help but link that to those three clubs' respectively easier runs home. Is it any wonder, for example, that Sydney has dominated things like clearances, scores inside 50, transition from D50 to F50 etc., in a run of games including North, GWS, Adelaide, Essendon and St Kilda? 

A lot is made about how we were 10-0 and since then 5-6. It's not all entirely down to our fixture (I'm really not trying to argue that), but I don't think it's unreasonable to point out that we were statistically dominant, and undefeated, when we had the "soft" part of our draw, and then mid-table in the "hard" part. Geelong was the same - 5-4 in the "hard" part of their fixture, resulting in them sitting 7th on the ladder at the time, then 12-0 since in the "soft" part.

[DeelightfullyInsightful]

Hey folks,

Great win by the Dees on Friday night. Here is an update for Round 23 on my adjusted ladder.

A reminder that when teams play each other twice this ladder takes the average points and percentage of those games, essentially creating a ladder which reflects playing everyone once:

Changes in position are reflected in fill (green, red, no fill). Changes in percentage are reflected in text colour (green, red).

 

My reflections:

- Geelong and Melbourne are top 2 seeds, there is a gap to the rest

- It's amazing how high Collingwood have finished with their percentage (and adjusted percentage of 100.8%). They actually won all of their double up games (10 wins) against Us, Adelaide, Carlton, Essendon & Gold Coast

- Confirms Carlton was stiff to miss on wins, but had a poor adjusted percentage overall

- I'd expect Port to be back in finals in 2023

- Hawks and Giants were better than I thought

 

Great season by the boys. Go Dees :)

[layzie]

Nice work there! 

[dl4e]

So if we played each other once I wonder what Geelongs 9 game home draw would look like. It would obviously be against Melbourne, St Kilda, North and Footescray. The rest interstate. Bank on it.

[daisycutter]

just play each double up game for 2 points

max points in season being 17 x 4 = 68

removes much inequity

 

edit: and to make it more interesting during the season, the first time you play it is for 4 points and the second time it is for -2 and +2 points

Edited August 22, 2022 by daisycutter